|
Worth a read, like many are saying at the moment EVs are not up to the job due to the reasons we've done to death on here. I didn't realise that being in an accident with an EV will cause more damage than an ICE car. Seems the wealthier folks get an EV for shorter journeys but when it's a decent distance out comes the diesel.
|
A journal called Nature being an expert in vehicle dynamics, and active safety systems?
Just had a look on Nature’s website, and it has a plethora of pro-EV articles. It’s amazing how cherry picking quotes can distort an article if someone had the inclination.
Edited by mcb100 on 10/02/2022 at 08:41
|
A journal called Nature being an expert in vehicle dynamics, and active safety systems?
Nature is not just about birds and bees.
|
|
|
A journal called Nature being an expert in vehicle dynamics, and active safety systems? Just had a look on Nature’s website, and it has a plethora of pro-EV articles. It’s amazing how cherry picking quotes can distort an article if someone had the inclination.
Nature is one of the top handful of peer-reviewed scientific journals in the world. Beyond the editorials, which are themselves written by experts, the rest of the content is peer-reviewed research. If you want to find a trustworthy scientific journal, this would be one of the very first places to look.
|
|
|
|
|
The problem with statements like EV's potentially killing more folk in an accident because they are so heavy, and the 'other' emissions such as from brake linings, is that there is no context to them.
Re the weight, the heaviest Tesla is the Model X Plaid with its truly massive battery dishing up over 1000bhp. Just how heavy is it?, 2445kg, admittedly quite a lot, but is that down to it being an EV?. The current Land Rover Discovery with a 3.0 turbo diesel (300bhp) weighs only 83kg (around 3%) less. Go back to the 3rd gen and the Disco was actually heavier. And while the difference will be much bigger on smaller EV's with bigger batteries, something like a Zoe with its biggest battery option is still going to be lighter than most of the mid sized SUV's most folk drive these days.
As for battery linings, it is a well known fact that EV's and hybrids use brake regeneration, so most EV's will be spewing out far less brake lining particles than an ICE car.
|
|
Really surprised with the softly softly approach that Quentin Wilson gave to the Head of Networks. Can’t believe that Clarkson would have given him such an easy interview.
Especially the answer to the question about charging cars belonging to people not fortunate enough to have a driveway and charge point.
In real life the terrace house street are going to be littered with extension cables causing tripping hazards to pedestrians.
Speaking to a relative who has a Polestar which he has abandoned for longer journeys where he may need to recharge, because of compatibility problems, queuing and points out of order and takes his sons Fiesta.
A short bit of fun:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AlndKQSs6Q
Edited by Xileno on 10/02/2022 at 17:37
|
|
I know a few people who’ve gone electric without issue (other than cost) recently, one has the top spec ID3 which she’s recently done a London run from Ayrshire in without any issues via a couple of toilet/snack/fast charge breaks. Most are quite happy except our engineering manager who bought a 16 plate Leaf and found that it would barely do 60 miles on his 60/70mph commute in winter. He’s offloaded it. Exactly as I’ve said before, the battery tech isn’t right yet. It’s too expensive and it’s useless by year 5/6. Depreciation will be crippling once the market settles down again and as dealers get stung for battery replacement on used examples, currently £6500/£7000 on a Leaf for example. I wouldn’t buy one but leasing rates are not that bad compared to similar petrol, diesel and hybrid cars. We found the ID3 was typically £70/£80 a month more than an equivalent petrol car and it’ll Save more than that on fuel. Insurance was cheap and the car itself is a pleasant looking and driving thing. It’s not something I’ll buy at the other end though.
|
|
There's a good test coming up in 2 or 3 years - a large number of EVs will come off business lease where they have been used as Co cars due to the tax incentives. These will all come onto the 2nd hand market, so that will be the test of private consumers' appetite for EVs - either they will lap them up and the prices will be bouyant, and ICE cars will fall, or they will steer clear of them, and prices will drop. It will also test whether the tax incentive is enough for Co Car uses to stay electric or go back to ICE - the tax advantages are likely to have been diluted by then.
|
There's a good test coming up in 2 or 3 years - a large number of EVs will come off business lease where they have been used as Co cars due to the tax incentives. These will all come onto the 2nd hand market, so that will be the test of private consumers' appetite for EVs - either they will lap them up and the prices will be bouyant, and ICE cars will fall, or they will steer clear of them, and prices will drop. It will also test whether the tax incentive is enough for Co Car uses to stay electric or go back to ICE - the tax advantages are likely to have been diluted by then.
Good point.
|
|
|
|
|
The key point to take from the interview is that it is a transition not a cliff edge.
By 2030 when pure ICE is banned, ~40-50% of cars on the road will be EV, by 2040 EVs will dominate with ~85%. Remaining ICE will all be over 10 years old.
If at any point in the next 8 years it seems the charging infrastructure cannot be upgraded effectively, the date could be deferred. I think it unlikely.
If you think EV is not for you, whether the reasons are credible or not, is up to the individual. You have 15+ years to be persuaded otherwise - or continue to run an ever older banger.
|
|
It's an article from the Daily Mail, so it's not surprising that it's backward looking and against progress.
If most vehicles are electric and most of our electricity is generated by renewable sources, then there will be a big drop in CO2 emissions from vehicles. The production of electric cars is no more polluting than that of petrol or diesel ones although the pollutants might be different.
The main obstacles to going electric for a lot of people now are:
The charging infrastructure, while improving rapidly, is still seen as inadequate and unreliable. This is especially important if you can't do fast charging at home.
Financial inertia. If I have a good petrol or diesel car at the moment I'm not likely to trade it in for an EV until I need to change the car anyway, especially if I don't do a very annual high mileage.
As well as CO2 emissions, there's also the matter of finite fossil fuels, which would run into supply difficulties in the next 50 years or so anyway as oil becomes scarcer.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 10/02/2022 at 12:33
|
It's an article from the Daily Mail, so it's not surprising that it's backward looking and against progress.
Let's just make sure we choose the correct terms - Change is not necessarily the same as Progress, which normally implies a move forwards with some improvement. :-)
|
|
|
|
The key point to take from the interview is that it is a transition not a cliff edge.
By 2030 when pure ICE is banned, ~40-50% of cars on the road will be EV, by 2040 EVs will dominate with ~85%. Remaining ICE will all be over 10 years old.
If at any point in the next 8 years it seems the charging infrastructure cannot be upgraded effectively, the date could be deferred. I think it unlikely.
If you think EV is not for you, whether the reasons are credible or not, is up to the individual. You have 15+ years to be persuaded otherwise - or continue to run an ever older banger.
That's all well and good if they compete on a level playing field, but they certainly aren't now and, if policy is to go by, will be even more so in the future, which means those least able to change over from ICE to EV will be even further financially disadvantaged, having only the option to keep their existing ICE car on the road and paying more and more for the 'priviledge' or scrap / sell it for peanuts and rely almost solely on (normally) poor public transport (especialloutside of the major cities) and expensive car hiring when they need one. That would be, in my view, a large step back in social mobility for millions of people.
Costs of buying, renting and running EVs will likely reduce over time as the technology becomes mature, but I think we're jumping the proverbial gun in artificially making them 'mainstream' before they are 'technologically mature' / affordable tech for the masses.
|
|
You will be able to buy new ICE until 2030, and buy (s/h) and run ICE until ~2040 by which time forecourt closures, clean air zones etc will make it increasingly difficult.
In 2040 all s/h cars less than 10 years old will be EV, and a large proportion of those over 10 years old. There will be a s/h car to suit all budgets with a support infrastructure to match.
It is a transition not a cliff edge - a case of "get used to it". No political party will reverse the plans unless demonstrably unachievable. Much else will change in the next 15-20 years - autonomous cars, shared ownership, rent-a-car schemes, etc etc.
|
You will be able to buy new ICE until 2030, and buy (s/h) and run ICE until ~2040 by which time forecourt closures, clean air zones etc will make it increasingly difficult.
In 2040 all s/h cars less than 10 years old will be EV, and a large proportion of those over 10 years old. There will be a s/h car to suit all budgets with a support infrastructure to match.
It is a transition not a cliff edge - a case of "get used to it". No political party will reverse the plans unless demonstrably unachievable. Much else will change in the next 15-20 years - autonomous cars, shared ownership, rent-a-car schemes, etc etc.
I'm far from convinced, given the so-called 'experts' said that autonymous cars would by now be legal and safe, and they are still being trialed well into the R&D phase, because they still aren't anywhere good enough outside of the far easier testing areas used in recent years.
This isn't the first time (nowhere near in fact) that 'experts' have made promises about X or Y tech leaps forward that either never came to fruition or were giant let down in the level of positive difference it has made, and often came along with many negative effects which were (as usual) conveniently brushed over / dismissed, often because they would jepodise lucrative governmental and private sector 'investment' in their projects.
|
|
|
|
Costs of buying, renting and running EVs will likely reduce over time as the technology becomes mature, but I think we're jumping the proverbial gun in artificially making them 'mainstream' before they are 'technologically mature' / affordable tech for the masses.
I agree with you on that - you have 8 years to get enough vehicles that suit everyone...can't see it happening...and certainly not at costs people who have cars now will be able to all afford.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-10 minute I found this morning from an actual expert - youtu.be/J8dnxANvBRQ
There are many definitions of an expert, but Quentin Wilson is not one of them, on anything, at all, ever.
|
There are many definitions of an expert, but Quentin Willson is not one of them, on anything, at all, ever.
We always welcome honest unbiased opinions on here .... :-)
|
There are many definitions of an expert, but Quentin Willson is not one of them, on anything, at all, ever.
We always welcome honest unbiased opinions on here .... :-)
Had focussed got any further than the name Quentin Wilson and making a snap assumption at that point, he'd have realised that this is an interview of 'an expert' (Graeme Cooper of the National Grid) by Quentin Wilson.
|
|
It doesn't matter how many experts get wheeled out to convince the public that everything will be fine, the reality is that the UK does not have enough base load power generation capacity to support the proposed electrical load of charging EV's and running domestic heat pumps.
Meanwhile, over here, President Macron has been laying out his plans for building more nuclear stations.
Yesterday Macron announced the plan to build 14 new EPR2 reactors which when integrated into the current fleet of reactors, some of which will need replacing, will result in total of 6 more reactors than currently.
The EPR2 is a modularised version of the current standard EPR reactor.
He also announced the re-purchase by EDF of Alstom which was sold to General Electric in 2015, the sale of which he masterminded when he was Hollande's backroom wizzkid ! Oops !
(Alstom make the steam turbines that drive the electricity generators in nuclear power stations)
https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/02/11/emmanuel-macron-confirme-le-virage-pronucleaire-de-sa-strategie-energetique_6113213_3234.html
Impressive plans - if it all comes to fruition, it could all be pre- presidential election blahblah, but by the time they are built he will be long gone and probably in a cushy job in the EU. - but it's a start.
Edited by focussed on 11/02/2022 at 22:54
|
|
Isn’t the mantra of ‘we’ve had enough of experts’ how we ended up with Brexit? For all the good that’s doing us.
|
Isn’t the mantra of ‘we’ve had enough of experts’ how we ended up with Brexit? For all the good that’s doing us.
As I boringly said at the time, how did it make sense for the politicians elected to make such decisions on our behalf to say We can't decide, and ask those with even less idea for advice ?
|
|
|
|
It doesn't matter how many experts get wheeled out to convince the public that everything will be fine, the reality is that the UK does not have enough base load power generation capacity to support the proposed electrical load of charging EV's and running domestic heat pumps.
Meanwhile, over here, President Macron has been laying out his plans for building more nuclear stations.
Yesterday Macron announced the plan to build 14 new EPR2 reactors which when integrated into the current fleet of reactors, some of which will need replacing, will result in total of 6 more reactors than currently.
The EPR2 is a modularised version of the current standard EPR reactor.
He also announced the re-purchase by EDF of Alstom which was sold to General Electric in 2015, the sale of which he masterminded when he was Hollande's backroom wizzkid ! Oops !
(Alstom make the steam turbines that drive the electricity generators in nuclear power stations)
https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2022/02/11/emmanuel-macron-confirme-le-virage-pronucleaire-de-sa-strategie-energetique_6113213_3234.html
Impressive plans - if it all comes to fruition, it could all be pre- presidential election blahblah, but by the time they are built he will be long gone and probably in a cushy job in the EU. - but it's a start.
If all the energy saved by not having to refine crude oil into petrol and diesel was diverted into generating electricity to run EVs, there would probably be no increase in demand. True, some of that energy used in oil refining is gas, which isn't renewable and produces CO2 but using it to generate electricity would save further CO2 emissions from petrol and diesel vehicle. They say petrol and diesel yield roughly 3 times the energy used in their refining. But then these engines are only roughly 1/3 efficient so that cancels out. An electric car is 85-90% efficient. So you could say that a wind turbine is only, maybe, 30% efficient at converting wind energy into electricity but then the wind energy is free and limitless, though it's intermittent.
|
|
In 2012 average UK electricity demand was 36GW of which renewables were 1.8GW
In 2021 average UK electricity demand was 34GW of which renewables were 10,2GW
Fossil fuel generation has fallen from 25GW to 13GW.
The wind and sun has not run out. Nor is the view of horizon obscured by the blades of massed turbines. increasing wind power has been proven feasible and there is no real barrier to further development bar investment.
Wind and solar variability and transmission infrastructure are issues. Both need a storage capability. EVs may be part of the solution - a fully charged EV battery could power an average home for several days, and balance the load on transmission networks.
|
|
I wonder whether the mass adoption of wind turbines (and there does seem to be an awful lot of them appearing, many more where we dont see them ie at sea), I wonder if we are walking into a greater disaster than we realise.
Increasingly I read about the climatic and weather changes they cause. And the disaster they are to many species, insects, birds, bats which are already under threat.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181004112553...m
conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cs...6
Edited by brum on 12/02/2022 at 21:05
|
I wonder whether the mass adoption of wind turbines (and there does seem to be an awful lot of them appearing, many more where we dont see them ie at sea), I wonder if we are walking into a greater disaster than we realise.
Increasingly I read about the climatic and weather changes they cause. And the disaster they are to many species, insects, birds, bats which are already under threat.
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/10/181004112553...m
conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cs...6
Thats why they are redesigning wind turbines as they don`t (or so they say) need the massive blades they use, and it has been said they can use the tubes with ship propeller's inside to generate the electricity using less turbines over a wide area than we have now.
and as said before they are not eco friendly as they cannot be broken up and made into something else, but they do use parts for playgrounds and other things so are slightly useful
|
|
|
|
|
If all the energy saved by not having to refine crude oil into petrol and diesel was diverted into generating electricity to run EVs, there would probably be no increase in demand. True, some of that energy used in oil refining is gas, which isn't renewable and produces CO2 but using it to generate electricity would save further CO2 emissions from petrol and diesel vehicle.
Much of the energy for refining comes from the off gas generated. And if you stop extracting oil and gas where exactly do you think all the petrochems to make all the plastics in your lovely 'green' EVs are going to come from????
|
From an increase in the use of recycled and plant based plastics. Probably 25% of the plastics in a new car have already seen use as something else, primarily bottles.
95% of a new car (by weight) must be capable of being recycled, recovered or reused.
Edited by mcb100 on 13/02/2022 at 10:40
|
From an increase in the use of recycled and plant based plastics. Probably 25% of the plastics in a new car have already seen use as something else, primarily bottles. 95% of a new car (by weight) must be capable of being recycled, recovered or reused.
Isn't there a limit on how many times they can be recycled? Besides, the act of recycling often expends a considerable amount of energy and manpower, especcially for goods that are made of several different materials.
One of the big problems is that many products by the inherrant design are not easy / cheap / energy effecient to recycle or safely dispose (including incinerating) of. It's often a choice (at least for now) between cheap to initially produce but expensive / bad for the environment to recycle / dispose of later, or prohibitively expensive first time around (and thus not economic to sell for the mass market) and 'ok' (at best) on the second issue.
What WOULD be a really good idea is to go back to how the world USED to do things, i.e. make products very modular, easy / cheap to repair and where at all possible, hardy, highly reliable and long-lasting.
The changeover to many consumer products being deliberately designed with a shelf life so customers keep on buying new ones, despite the tech being there so that they DID last far longer reliably, was in my view an utter disgrace.
This is where the standardisation of car parts could be a big boon -whether for ICE or (especially) EVs going into the future. Buy a car 'today' with a bodyshell / frame that will last (with corroding) 50+ years with ease, swap out the internals rather like desktop computer parts as required.
It might put an end to specific 'makes' of car - rather like with desktop PCs being 'assembled' by small firms fom buying in a plethora of parts from all over, but it would mean, if done correctly, you tailor what you need and you can buy long-lasting, reliable parts that will essentially fit any car.
Having more 'local' assembly and repair outfits would also be a boost to local business and might reverse the decline of urban areas.
Just a thought on a Sunday with nothing better to do.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
