In 2030 s/h EVs will be (mostly) in the range of 2-8 years old.

Assuming EV rollout goes as planned, sales of ICE will fall away as 2030 approaches, but will still represent 50%+ of s/h cars over (say) 3 years old.

Most s/h buyers will be looking for cars over 3-5 years old. They will have little choice but to buy ICE simply due to the price of new or s/h younger EVs.

As it will be entirely feasible (and probably legal) to continue driving an ICE post 2030 for (possibly) another 10+ years, I would not expect s/h prices to change materially from where things are now.

The only proviso may be that (a) government legislate to remove ICE from the roads, (b) new EV prices fall very rapidly reducing the price of all s/h cars (unlikely)

that’s changing fast for us too sadly and many ordinary working people are going to be pushed off the road and the illogical government(s) who caused it will be pushed out of power by the angry working classes.

This point was made on Talk radio yesterday, lots of people need to have a cheap car for many reasons and if this not possible then it will cause problems. Evs have a question mark over their pollution contribution according to the scientist being interviewed and he reckoned disposing of used batteries will be a real problem.

I don't think there will be any drastic change. Cars last about 13 years old by which time they aren't worth a lot and it will stay the same.

I suspect some ICE will retain their value because something with an engine, clutch and gearbox will be "exotic" and there will be some demand for a car you feel you are actually driving.

However, the younger generation don't seem very interested in such things. Increasingly they see no need to learn to drive a manual car and ride/handing/drive enjoyment is a long way down the list now compared to the onboard tech.

Renault have predicted a 65% drop in battery prices by 2028. If that's right by then an EV will be cheaper to make than most ICE models. If that is right of course.

By 2028 it will be very clear whether the 2030 ban date will work or need to be deferred.

If the date holds, it will be because EV has the cost, range and infrastructure for viability.

Assuming this happens, Dacia may no longer be making ICE Sanderos. There may be an opportunity to buy an end of range, heavily discounted ICE - but you will be buying a rapidly depreciating old technology!

New car demand and used car demand are not the same thing.

Not many new diesels are being sold now but there is very healthy demand on the used market, particularly at the cheaper end.

In 2030 a 10 year old or 5 year old car will be one from 2020 or 2025 and will reflect what was being sold at the time. They will still cars and they will have a value.

I do not expect ICE cars to collapse in value but gradually disappear as they age and get scrapped. On the other hand I doubt most will explode in value either. There will come a point I expect where one gets a pain to run with lack of filling options and lack of skills to maintain it.

It won't be a quick collapse - but there will come a time when:

• fuel forecourts become scarce - they have reduced from 13000 to 8000 over the last 20 years. Lower sales = more closures
• investment in fuels will be limited with increasing failures in refineries, distribution, forecourts
• new spares and repairs for ICE will become more costly, the skills base shrink and spare parts more difficult to source
• ICE will be banned or congestion charged in cities and towns wanting clean air
• manufacturers have already largely stopped investment and research into ICE - they will provide an increasingly obsolete outdated driving experiences

In contrast - EV will become cheaper, batteries longer range and lighter, recharging infrastructure growing, investment attracted into vehicles, increasing pool of support etc.

If when this comes to pass and your ICE is immaculate it may appear in a museum, or displayed at classic car shows for the nostalgic.

I would love to order a new Peugeot Rifter MPV but the electric (and it only comes in electric) does 180miles which means 140 miles in the real world between charges; costs £30k plus with no discounts and charging on the go is a faff (as a friend with a Tesla has been telling me for over a year). If it could do 320 miles on a run or the current offering cost £20k I would be interested but neither is likely for at least 5 years so I will happy stick with my current petrol car and likely renew it with another petrol car.

This is going to be issue for us next year...we run a diesel Vauxhall Combo Life via Motability...now the Combo Life/Rifter and Berlingo are all EV only the range on them won't be suitable...and expect the range may be less than 140 miles by the time the car is loaded up with the electric wheel chair and mobility scooter it's used for...a real shame as otherwise the car is great...hopfully VW or Ford will have the similar cars still available and not as silly prices.

Edited by daveyK_UK on 05/02/2022 at 08:57

This is going to be issue for us next year...we run a diesel Vauxhall Combo Life via Motability...now the Combo Life/Rifter and Berlingo are all EV only the range on them won't be suitable...and expect the range may be less than 140 miles by the time the car is loaded up with the electric wheel chair and mobility scooter it's used for...a real shame as otherwise the car is great...hopfully VW or Ford will have the similar cars still available and not as silly prices.

The Stellantis announcement also stated that IC versions would still be available for disabled conversions.

That is true - but for us and a lot of people on Motability we don't have any conversions required so not able to access the ICE versions of the cars.