Big petrol motors - my first thought is the Mustang V8. With a few extras easily breaks the £40,000 threshold and it has a CO2 emissions rating of 299g/km. So if buying new after April that means you pay a first year rate of £2,000, plus the £310 supplement and £140 flat rate for five years. Total: £4,250.

The old rate would have cost a V8 Mustang owner a first year rate of £1,120 plus £515 a year, making a total of £3,695 – a difference of £555 versus the new system over the same time period.

Under the new scheme, in the sixth year of ownership you are paying £140 a year, instead of £515 - so the new system eventually is the winner.

Therefore cars with high CO2 outputs work out cheaper with the new system if you plan to keep them for a long time, especially if below the £40,000 threshold. THe example above is only cheaper after seven years.

I predict a rise in sales of the Mustang V8 with few options - keeping the price below 40,000 - where the new system is cheaper over three years.

But ... where I agree with the new VED scheme is with older cars. The high rates of VED can make an older car uneconomic, and lead to them being scrapped - even when they have years of useful life left in them. Given that the environment has already paid the cost of them being built and shipped around the world, it may have a lower carbon footprint to keep them going, even if they do relatively poor MPG, than to scrap them prematurely.

Edited by Marlot on 15/03/2017 at 06:34

Its going to be really odd in 5 years time, as predicted where 5 to 11 year old high CO2 cars are currently increasingly difficult to sell as they age due to £515 VED (this is the sole reason my Landcruiser is a 2005 and not newer), in 5 years time the soon to be bought 5 year olds will be cheap as any other car on VED.

Well this is with the goal posts where they are currently, they'll probably move a few times between now and then, and i doubt those of us with older cars will find ourselves left alone, espacially if we happen to own something that's been deemed wrong..

Edited by gordonbennet on 15/03/2017 at 08:28