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Awareness of renewable energy is higher now and demand for petrol is now showing downward trend.
Conflict is not yet affecting oil producing countries.
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I can't believe for one second that the Major Companies will dive on this in an instant to put prices up.
It's what they do. Every time.
Oh, and just remember why the Middle East is like it is!
End of WW2 and the British spring to mind.
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So far as I can see the current conflict is between Israel and Hamas in the area bordering the Gaza Strip.
Unless it spreads, for example if Iran or one or more Arab nations were to stick their oar in, it doesn't seem to affect any of the big oil producers or tanker routes out of the Gulf etc.
EDIT: It seems however that prices have risen today. Markets pricing in the prospect of further instability across the wider Middle East.
www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/09/oil-price...s
Edited by Bromptonaut on 09/10/2023 at 11:48
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The problem with the oil and gas markets is that they generally tend to exaggerate the potential consequences and the likelihood of problems far more than they do with favourable conditions.
That being said, given the rhetoric coming out of Tel Aviv at present, I suspect some kind of significant attack on Iran by them is on the cards. Perhaps miltary, political and (I wouldn't be suprised) the infamous nuclear facilities being targeted.
What isn't being discussed much is why this happened and, signifcantly, that the $6Bn (?) the Biden government gave to the Iranians as a 'settlement' not that long ago may have been used to finance the whole Hamas operation, which is not insignificant in scale.
Whilst the big recession (depression) that I predicted for 6 months ago was 'averted' - mainly by more government borrowing, etc, this event combined with the already big dive in the bond markets (seemingly as a reaction [finally] to the huge Pandemic era spending via borrowing) may finanlly kick this off, just a year later than I thought.
I was too young to really remember the worst of the 1970s hard (financial) times (aside from petrol queuing), but speaking to my parents and, whilst they were still alive, my grandparents, discussing both the 1930s Depression and WWII / decade after, things appear to be going in a similar direction at present.
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Recession has already started, despite being in the golden triangle one prominent Northants logistics operator has just gone bust and others are looking at cutting back, apart from food and chinese made plastic and electronic tat what else is there to transport? Wilkos went up the wall, several others looking at various shop/site closures and high profile high street shops are in trouble too.
The so called driver shortage, as with most scares put out by the industry/govt/media, never was, just another hyped scam to get the taxpayer to provide free driver training and allow suitably qualified immigration to keep the numbers looking for jobs high, equals wages low.
The arguably useful sections of HSD are cancelled which is big news in the construction sector.
I suspect an early election before the general public cotton on that the smelly stuff and the fan are getting together, not as it matters a jot whether its the blue reds or the red reds holding the wine and cheese parties in numbers 10 and 11.
Bankrupting the remaining few net contributors to the economy by making it not worth them travelling to work barely registers in the grand clown show we're living through.
Edited by gordonbennet on 09/10/2023 at 14:16
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Recession has already started, despite being in the golden triangle one prominent Northants logistics operator has just gone bust
Which one was that GB?
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Knights of Old group.
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Knights of Old group.
Ditto !!
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Knights of Old group.
Thanks, now you've named them there's a bell ringing but possibly something odd about a trailer I saw on the road rather than a news item.
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I don't think the recession has remotely started. Finding any trades to do work around the house is impossible.
Bathroom fitter (bathroom needs refurbishing) last week "we're rammed until after Christmas". Similar experience with garden maintenance and tree surgery.
Adverts in many shops for a range of staff required - chefs, serving staff, kitchen fitters etc. Unemployment is still low. Vacancies across the UK are close to 1m.
I think many (fortunate) folk are still living off pandemic savings. Inflation and cost of living is entirely different but does create problems for some - mainly those who already had little.
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I don't think the recession has remotely started. Finding any trades to do work around the house is impossible.
But you're basically conforming the economy now comprises keeping house prices rising and selling each other coffees and take aways, any real jobs designing and making things to sell? nope.
The reason we don't have any trades people is because several decades worth of time served trades people have been encouraged instead to go to university unrealistically for them instead of pursuing trades leading to decent productive employment, often for pointless studies and landing themselves in £thousands of debt before they've completed a single days work...even in our elephantine national and local govts and institutions there arn't enough jobs to be had that they might be qualifed for, with the plum ones allocated long ago.
The other issue is the various net zero cobblers and agendas 2030 or whatever the wheeze of the moment might be, why bother investing 5 years into a trade which might not be there by the time you're qualified, eg will a qualified gas fitter be needed or not in 5 years time, our leaders and (they assume) betters have heaped the funeral pyres of our country through quite staggering incomptence, one assumes malevolence plays a big part here.
Paraphrasing the briliant Thomas Sowell, how can you expect the same people responsible for our catastrophe to put it right when responsibility isn't theirs.
They walk away as all politicians do usually leaving a trail of destruction and despair in their wake to a well heeled index lnked retirement before embarking on the lucrative non job directorship and speeches merry-go-round, you couldn't make it up.
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There will be Petrol and diesel price rises, perhaps £2 plus a litre in the future
Not an issue if you have a plug in.
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There will be Petrol and diesel price rises, perhaps £2 plus a litre in the future
Not an issue if you have a plug in.
Lots of other factors at work here - don't forget that even if you have your roof plastered with PV panels, and perhaps a battery wall (not cheap), that really is effective from mid Spring to mid Autumn and for most people won't be able to provide power and heat in winter to fullfill their needs in addition to charging their car up.
Then they'll have to rely on good ol' fossil fuels to provide heat directly via gas/oil or indirectly via methods of electricity generation, which obviously depends upon the price of oil and gas, which are inextricably linked, especially when involving wars in the regions eitherboth are produced.
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There will be Petrol and diesel price rises, perhaps £2 plus a litre in the future
Not an issue if you have a plug in.
You EV guys just can't see what's coming.
Where do you think this cheap Electricity comes from?
Once the Government are ready, with their Smart Meters watching when your charging your car, and taxing your electricity according. Even rationing when you can charge, if they want, they can do this.
Tax incentives all disappearing, and now, not sc***ping ICE's.
You will rue the day you acquired an EV.
How long do you really expect everything on the cheap?
Of course I may be wrong, but it looks like the 'Writings already on the wall' to me!
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I can't speak for the contributors here but those people I know who've got EVs realise that at some point the relative advantages will fade. In fact they already are. No harm in making hay while the sun shines though. I suspect road pricing will be the main method filling the lost revenue.
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I can't speak for the contributors here but those people I know who've got EVs realise that at some point the relative advantages will fade. In fact they already are. No harm in making hay while the sun shines though. I suspect road pricing will be the main method filling the lost revenue.
I expect to contribute towards the cost of our roads via road tax/charging in the future, but even with fees being introduced for on street car charging pushing me to charge SWMBO’s Leaf at home costs will remain much lower than conventional cars, the days of cheap petrol and diesel are long gone. It costs me £2.90 to cover around 140/150 miles via low rate evening tariff electricity which is a fraction of the equivalent petrol/diesel costs. The biggest gain however is that I’m not giving money to some of the worlds most appalling oppressive medieval regimes to fill her car up. We may become a two electric car family at some point for this very reason.
Edited by SLO76 on 18/10/2023 at 14:04
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There will be Petrol and diesel price rises, perhaps £2 plus a litre in the future
Not an issue if you have a plug in.
You EV guys just can't see what's coming.
Where do you think this cheap Electricity comes from?
Once the Government are ready, with their Smart Meters watching when your charging your car, and taxing your electricity according. Even rationing when you can charge, if they want, they can do this.
Tax incentives all disappearing, and now, not sc***ping ICE's.
You will rue the day you acquired an EV.
How long do you really expect everything on the cheap?
Of course I may be wrong, but it looks like the 'Writings already on the wall' to me!
I've heard the rationing thing before. How is it supposed to work? Are they going to turn off my electricity after a certain amount of consumption? I not sure the energy companies will be too happy about that.
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I largely I agree with you that university rather than apprenticeships in practical skills has lead to a shortage of skills in some areas. As a society we chose (or at the very least allowed) this to happen, valuing low prices and immediate gratification over longer perspectives.
It is not government policy - it is people voting with their wallet to pay less for TVs, washing machines, cars, etc etc. If the finished products are imported there is no role for uncompetitive primary industries - steel, coal mining etc.
Manufacturing started to leave the UK from the 1980s to wherever was cheapest. Jobs and skills in traditional industries were lost, replaced by jobs in the services sector.
Other businesses grew - eg: coffee shops, restaurants, media, health care etc. These are real jobs, just different to those which went previously. These major transitions have happened previously - eg: agriculture with the introduction of machinery and fertilisers.
Housing costs and house prices are simply a function of supply and demand:
- until a year ago interest rates had remained very low for two decades - this inevitably increased house prices by making them relatively more affordable
- the UK under both Labour and Tory governments have failed to build enough new houses even to meet population increases
The shortage of new housing is possibly due to two factors - planning delays/nimby's, and possibly property companies who make a bigger profit from higher prices.
One key factor which may reverse this trend in the future is AI - it is likely to replace more complex tasks (eg: financial management, design, law, media) but less able to master the physical dexterity required of some skilled trades - eg: plumber, electrician, joiner.
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I largely I agree with you that university rather than apprenticeships in practical skills has lead to a shortage of skills in some areas. As a society we chose (or at the very least allowed) this to happen, valuing low prices and immediate gratification over longer perspectives.
It is not government policy - it is people voting with their wallet to pay less for TVs, washing machines, cars, etc etc. If the finished products are imported there is no role for uncompetitive primary industries - steel, coal mining etc.
Manufacturing started to leave the UK from the 1980s to wherever was cheapest. Jobs and skills in traditional industries were lost, replaced by jobs in the services sector.
Other businesses grew - eg: coffee shops, restaurants, media, health care etc. These are real jobs, just different to those which went previously. These major transitions have happened previously - eg: agriculture with the introduction of machinery and fertilisers.
Housing costs and house prices are simply a function of supply and demand:
- until a year ago interest rates had remained very low for two decades - this inevitably increased house prices by making them relatively more affordable
- the UK under both Labour and Tory governments have failed to build enough new houses even to meet population increases
The shortage of new housing is possibly due to two factors - planning delays/nimby's, and possibly property companies who make a bigger profit from higher prices.
One key factor which may reverse this trend in the future is AI - it is likely to replace more complex tasks (eg: financial management, design, law, media) but less able to master the physical dexterity required of some skilled trades - eg: plumber, electrician, joiner.
The shortage of housing is a result.of a few things:
- Planning - Nimbys aren't a big factor as they're largely ignored by the current system. It's more that the system itself is completely broken (including ignoring public opinion.
- Profit - PLCs are required.to make profit for their shareholders. Most will aim for a margin of between 20 and 25% and throttle the delivery of new homes in any new development to stifle supply and maintain their margin.
- Lack of public housing - Lots lost in Right to Buy and never replaced. Councils build very few homes these days and lack the skills to do so. Housing Associations were supposed to step in, but are fragmented and funding is inconsistent and unpredictable.
- Demographic changes - Yes (to get it out of the way) immigration is a factor. Increased life expectancy and changes in household.composition (more single people, fewer multigenerational households) are bigger factors.
The way out of it is a huge programme of Government housebuilding. However, there is no money to pay for it and, having squandered everything from the good times, there isn't likely to be any for the foreseeable.
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<< But you're basically confirming the economy now comprises keeping house prices rising and selling each other coffees and takeaways, any real jobs designing and making things to sell? >>
I could suggest that most off-the-cuff things to design and sell have appeared and disappeared many times, so I guess the jobs you hint at should resemble the fashion industry, which had been doing that for a very long time. Car makers have been inventing more and more inessential gizmos to add to their cars, plus increasingly silly light clusters, front and rear. Do we need more ?
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I wonder if the Israelis have considered castrating the dead/captured Hamas militants? It'll perhaps send a message to others that they won't be much use as martyrs to the seventy -odd virgins promised to them in paradise.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
according to the western msm, who we know can be trusted implicitly, what was it someone once said about the first casualty of war.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
according to the western msm, who we know can be trusted implicitly, what was it someone once said about the first casualty of war.
Generally they can be trusted - usually when people say they can't be trusted is when they person disagrees with what is being said because it does not align with their own views rather than being factually wrong.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
Attacking kids/young adults at a music festival is pretty low.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
Attacking kids/young adults at a music festival is pretty low.
Decapitating babies, videoing it and releasing it to the world is as low as it gets.
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I doubt even Hamas would sink as low as the Russians.
Attacking kids/young adults at a music festival is pretty low.
Decapitating babies, videoing it and releasing it to the world is as low as it gets.
I'm sure someone will find something even worse before this is all out. I think complete destruction of Gaza and something bordering on genocide will be next.
The US will egg Israel on as usual, and Iran will keep.supplying Hamas with weapons until they, and an awful lot of Palestinian civilians are all dead
The entire Israel situation is truly awful and we should be ashamed for concocting the whole scheme.75 years ago.
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The entire Israel situation is truly awful and we should be ashamed for concocting the whole scheme.75 years ago.
The alternative was?
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The entire Israel situation is truly awful and we should be ashamed for concocting the whole scheme.75 years ago.
The alternative was?
Not trying to establish an allied country in the Middle East.
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It is completely irrelevant what was done 75 years ago. Actions need to be driven by what is now, and the likely impact on the future. A little like Brexit - we democratically voted to leave, we cannot re-write history and need to deal with the reality.
Israel exists. They are (I think) the only genuine democracy in the region. They are a sophisticated advanced economy.
Hamas by comparison are barbaric throwbacks to the worst of medieval behaviours. Gaza residents have harboured them - some willingly, some unwillingly no doubt concerned for their own safety if they protest.
The resolve of the Israelis to punish/destroy Hamas is wholly understandable. Palestinians civilians in Gaza are caught in the middle.
The real question - what can be done to change the future for the better. I doubt that on its own the Israeli actions will permanently stop Hamas - a repeat seems to occur every 8-12 years. The UN have been their usual ineffectual selves.
I have no easy answers, but speculating on what might have been done differently 75 years ago in the expectation it will somehow resolve todays problems is utterly pointless.
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It is completely irrelevant what was done 75 years ago. Actions need to be driven by what is now, and the likely impact on the future.
Unfortunately Hamas and Hezbollah do not share your idea of irrelevance. They consider that western nations clubbed together and agreed to hand over a chunk of their land for a new homeland for displaced Jews and their families. The later population growth has intensified the pressure to do something about it. Their choice of what to do is the problem.
Edited by Andrew-T on 18/10/2023 at 18:05
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I have no easy answers, but speculating on what might have been done differently 75 years ago in the expectation it will somehow resolve todays problems is utterly pointless.
It (and the preceding 30 years) is relevant in so much as 'the west' particularly the UK needs to take some responsibility for the problem it caused.
The entire establishment of Israel was bungled and, when it got too hard, we just walked away leaving a war that has not stopped for 75 years.
It is relevant now because we can still intervene. We can provide aid for Palestinians, possibly evacuate some of them. We can help the Israelis to root out terrorists. We can help to establish equality and security for everyone.
The simple fact is that it is still too much trouble. The west has never wanted to re-establish a homeland for Jews; it has wanted to establish a friendly power in the Middle East to maintain international power. The US, in particular, has sponsored Israel to develop whilst simultaneously encouraging it to push Palestine backwards. They have supplied weapons and have an interest in maintaining Israel on a defensive footing so that there is always a willing ally sat in the middle of the Arab countries.
Israelis have been exploited by the west for 75 years, given weapons and left to fend for themselves in a hostile environment. We can still assist by defending them against attack whilst also ensuring they keep their side of the bargain and taking care of the people that we displaced for our convenience.
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Israel (land) over the last 120 years has been controlled by the Ottomans (Turkey), the British, Egypt, Jordan, Palestinians (West Bank) and now Israel. Going back further adds no clarity with control by Greece (ancient) Roman, Assyrians +++.
Borders agreed by the UN in 1947 provided for a 2 state solution, and was undermined by the civil war in 1948. Israel borders with Jordan and Egypt have now been agreed, those with Lebanon, Syria, have not been ratified.
Palestine has always been a region with its borders formally undefined.
Each side uses history selectively to justify their "right". Getting a consensus on the past would be no easier than identifying a future path.
A solution defining a stable peaceful future is the only way in which conflict will likely be resolved. This needs the active involvement of Israel, Palestinians, adjacent Arab nations and the international community (esp. UN, USA).
Alternatively the past will repeat itself - in 6-12 years Palestinian resentment will again boil over into conflict. Israel will justifiably respond. Conflict in urban areas inevitably leads to civilian casualties. International reaction to civilian casualties will limit the Israel response.
And the cycle will start again - all rather depressing.
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I don't think the recession has remotely started.
Neither do I, judging from the number of HGV elephant races I saw sometimes reducing the speed of three of the four lanes of the mid-weekday yet still congested M1 to 56mph on our way back from Heathrow (a stark contrast to the similarly congested but fast moving six lane I-405 south of LA where you can count 100 cars before you see a 'semi' - usually a fuel tanker, rarely a container - they go double stacked on flatbed railcars, often over 100 of them).
The Knights of Old 'bankruptcy' looks a bit iffy - possibly some creative accountancy and company merging to obtain the most work for the least pay? It's the hopefully transient setback some endure for the general prosperity and wellbeing that only capitalism has been shown to provide down the ages.
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Neither do I, judging from the number of HGV elephant races I saw sometimes reducing the speed of three of the four lanes of the mid-weekday yet still congested M1 to 56mph on our way back from Heathrow (a stark contrast to the similarly congested but fast moving six lane I-405 south of LA where you can count 100 cars before you see a 'semi' - usually a fuel tanker, rarely a container - they go double stacked on flatbed railcars, often over 100 of them).
The joys of an already overpopulated small island (with a limited road network serving towns centuries older than in the US) adding a city's worth of people every year, it can only get worse.
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