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I was talking to a dealer yesterday. He has a yard full of cars (25+) currently loosing approx. £500 each per month at the moment, as they go unsold!
Edited by nick62 on 26/10/2008 at 17:37
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Sorry people, in splitting the threads, I "lost" a post by Smithsonian (I think) Sorry - wears hair vest for the next week !
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Question:
If, as Brown and Darling say, the UK is in a better than most [if not the best] placed countries in the world to ride out a recession, why is it that the £ is getting hammered?
Edited by jbif on 26/10/2008 at 20:06
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Don't think Britain is best placed by any means, but it could be worse.
There is a good argument that Sterling was overvalued at $2 and its dropping back to something more sustainable. Obviously the market is looking at cuts in interest rate, more to come and Brown's admission of a recession. It will drop a good deal further if BoE cuts interest rates further, which is sure to happen.
Edited by Pugugly on 26/10/2008 at 20:49
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madf: thanks, that is an entirely pragmatic view and I agree with pretty much all of it.
The people of whom I am beginning to tire (mainly, those who insist on adding their opinions to every Telegraph opinion piece at the moment) are those Jeremiads who say things along the lines of "Ooooh dear, it's all going completely wrong, I'm getting out while I can/I got out years ago, sauve qui peut, stuff all the rest of you" and so on. That was what prompted my comment this morning.
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Just look around you. Houses not selling, building sites ground to a halt, businesses closing, people losing their jobs - not to mention the collapsing stock market and the international banking system on life support.
The newspapers are behind the game on this one and they're playing catch-up now.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 26/10/2008 at 22:52
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IMO Down and Bawling should take responsibility for doing too little too late rather that swanning around like Batman and Robin, and resign today calling a general election in the process, that would give us all the lift we need and bring the other lot in who surely will do a better job in respect of both actions and, as importantly currently, confidence terms.
However it should not be all doom and gloom despite what the media say (I agree 100% with Lud's portayal of the media doom mongers in the first post above), for instance if you are in a secure job, have a mortgage that is only, say, 30 - 50% of your property value and have been planning to move to a bigger house then it is a good time, all property has dropped so the gap to bridge is reduced and competitive mortgage rates are on offer if you dont want to borrow more than around 75% of the property value. Likewise there are great discounts and finance deals on new cars etc, why aren't people doing it? The doom and gloom media reporting, we have come full circle.
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Whilst I agree (in principal) with your view cheddar I am more despondant over your belief that "the other lot" wil do a better job.
Personally I have no faith in "any lot" at the minute.
This is a time when a "Great" leader is due. I can't see one; in any party !
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This is a time when a "Great" leader is due. I can't see one; in any party !
>>
Couldn't agree more, is there any difference at all between the main 3 parties.
No one stands out as having the nous to tell the truth whether we like it or not, just bleat the same old cliche's and resort to playground yah boo tactics.
This constant propaganda politics and buying of votes by appeasement to the various factions and classes in this fast dividing society is of no use at all to this country overall, we so desperately need someone with gravitas and strength to stand up and tell us in simple terms ''truthfully'' without PC flowering exactly where we are and what they will do to put things right, regardless of who they offend in the process.
A good start would be to stop paying people to do nothing, themselves the politicians included, payment by results same as most of the rest of us. (that would see a swift reduction in much of the public and parliamentarian sectors)
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Absolutely GB.
Time for a benevolent dictator.
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payment by results same as most of the rest of us.
You mean "bonuses" such as paid out to Bankers on profits generated by the Banks in the past?
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You mean "bonuses" such as paid out to Bankers on profits generated by the Banks in the past?
Probably, when the company makes no money, those responsible get no wages/have to repay their portion of the loss.
Tends to concentrate the responsible part of the mind somewhat, bad decision big loss for company and banker, good decisions good for all concerned, whats wrong with that.
Its really no different in my mind to the colossal waste involved in the public sector.
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whats wrong with that
I agree with you. It's just that Nulab blames the crisis as being caused the bonus culture.
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I agree with you. It's just that Nulab blames the crisis as being caused the bonus culture.
Haven't politicians always done that, appeal to petty jealousies of many people, find a bogeyman as a scapegoat, point the finger light the blue touchpaper and stand back.
No different to the naming of witches in the dark ages, the religious hatreds, the mob mentality, and rule by fear...sound a bit familiar?
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Two stories today dealing with the top two high value purchases in the UK; Houses and Cars:
1. Persimmon cuts £600m off value of land bank
"Persimmon, the UK's biggest homebuilder by market value, said prices in the second half will fall twice as fast as predicted earlier and land values will be cut by £600m.
.... .... has closed three offices and cut 1,100 jobs as surveys showed property values dropping the most in at least a quarter of a century.
Cancellation rates at Persimmon have increased to about 35pc as customers are less willing to part with their cash amid the financial crisis and the belief prices may still fall further.
"
2. How about this for relying on manufacturing industry in hard times:
GKN to cut car jobs after profits warning
"GKN, the automotive and aerospace group, is to cut more than 2,000 jobs after giving warning that its profits will be 20 per cent lower this year because of a dramatic slowdown in its main businesses.
The company, which makes drivetrains for cars, has shut down factories and introduced flexible working at its sites in the UK and United States. More than 5 per cent of GKN's 42,000-strong worldwide workforce will also go as part of its restructuring. GKN's shares fell 20p to 97.5p in early trading and are 72 per cent below this time last year.
GKN's two factories in Birmingham and one in Telford, West Midlands, which employ 2,500 automotive workers, will be hit by the production changes and job losses. "
Edited by jbif on 27/10/2008 at 10:22
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This is a time when a "Great" leader is due. I can't see one; in any party !
I was brought up by parents who lived through 2 world wars. Compared to the social conditions in 1930s Germany we aint seen nothin'yet. Let us hope we never, ever again see the emergence of a 'great leader'. Such emergence always seems to result in death and misery for 10s of millions.
snip!
Edited by Webmaster on 27/10/2008 at 18:40
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IMO opinion a great leader isnt 1 who automaticaly thinks war is a cure!
Honesty as GB says is what makes a Great leader. IMO anyway!
Nothing wrong with saying we are at the bottom of the pile! But then to tell us how to we are going to get out of it; and doing something about it! Not just criticsing the other party (who are not blame free!)
But also going back to '30s Germany. The "great US" who we so boldy support as a nation were not exactly blame free in Germanys then crisis. In fact they seem to be involved in every country that has a crisis !
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There's a very good article on the US $ here...
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6985.html
I'm expecting GDP for Q4 2008 to be -0.75 to -1.0% as the financial services secotr, car making and other manufacturing contract and oil price falls lead to a reduction in monetary oil output.
That is far worse than any of the muppet economists forecast ... but as they did not forecast the coming recession they are useless .
I expect next year GDP to be -2.5 to -3% and a similar figure for 2010 but improving end 2010. Public sector deficists will balloon to over £100 billion...
Government debt is low at present: I agree about excluding Northern Rock etc.. and as long as the banks survive we will get most of our money back.
BUT
the only way we get our money back is by banks deleveraging and lenidng less- see Northern Rock which is putting up renewal costs so borrowers go elsewhere.
So this will prolong the recession in the real economy.
As for politicians, anyone who believes anything they say is an idiot as most have politicians are proven liars who make unsustainable promises: often KNOWING they were unsustainable. And only idiots trust people who clearly and openly lie.
Anyone for no more boom and bust? I did not have sex with that woman? 30 minutes before our troops in Cyprus are hit by missiles form Iraq? WMD?
I rest my case.
Meanwhile my Yaris does nearly 60mpg £35 VED and my financials are set up for the worst... I hope...
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A quick question -and something that always slightly puzzles me - why, if our GDP falls, say 3% (or roughly where we were in 2006), do we howl & suffer so much? I mean, most people weren't that much poorer then (I certainly didn't feel deprived anyway) - but now, it means chaos & catastrophe?
I now it 'not as simple as that' , but I'd be grateful if anyone here could elucidate. I've got a feeling that no-one will though - we all take these rather meaningless numbers for granted.
Edited by woodbines on 27/10/2008 at 12:05
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... why, if our GDP falls, say 3% (or roughly where we were in 2006), do we howl & suffer so much? I mean, most people weren't that much poorer then (I certainly didn't feel deprived anyway) - but now, it means chaos & catastrophe?
The credit crunch is supposed to have occurred in the main due to the sub-prime lending in the USA and similar junk mortgages in the UK. However, the resulting loss in asset values across the world has been many times the value of those bad debts.
It is animal instinct characterised by "stampeding herds" - which unfortunately humans are not immune from even though we like to think of our species are being intelligent.
Hence the bust follows boom follows bust follows boom cycle. [Only Canute claimed to stop tides and only Brown claimed to stop bust.]
This is all compounded in today's "one World" fed by 24 hour internet and TV media, the news channels and blogs compete to bring you the worst breaking news every minute.
I like to think of an imaginary datum which represents the balanced position. In boom times, the values ramp up gradually and then exponentially until near the peak some catalyst tips the balance over the edge. The fall from that edge tends to be very fast and near vertical, and the drop tends to overshoot the balanced position by a huge margin. It then takes a long time to recover to the correct balance but by then [people are back in the boom mindset and carry on upwards until the next correction.
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Yes, jbif - I could quite happly live with a notional '3%' less of everything. I guess equity & asset value can fall by much more because of that loss of compounded growth over a longer period. My real beef with all of this is that because of the fancy-Dan financial derivatives it seems that , by the wonders of the leverage produced, a rickshaw driver going bust in Delhi can cause an Icelandic bank to fail (to analogise a classic Chaos theory example).
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I'm just trying to think of a 'Great Leader' or wannabe who didn't leverage irrational prejudice against minority groups to gain and keep control at the expense of the lives of large numbers of his/her 'subjects'. This prejudice usually masquerades as 'plain speaking' or 'being a maverick' or 'honesty' and provides simple answers to questions that are too hard for most people to understand. Hitler was 'honest' about the Jews and their role in Germany's decline for instance; Saddam Hussain was 'honest' about the Marsh Arabs; George W. Bush was 'honest' about the threat from Iraq. I don't like that kind of honesty.
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Re great leaders - I'm torn between Russell Brand and Jonathan Ross LOL LOL LOL.
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To be fair to those yearning for a Great Leader, they aren't all in the mould of murdering illiterate carphounds like Hitler or Saddam Hussein or 'men of destiny' like Napoleon or Mao. They may be thinking of people more along the lines of Franklin Roosevelt or Churchill. But then again of course, they may not.
The problem for everyone really is that the nation-state as we know it has almost vanished, and won't be back soon. No one who has been exposed to the economic news recently can doubt that it's a single 'system' although an unequal and chaotic one. No leader in the democratic world has real autonomy, not even the US president.
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Quote:...""No leader in the democratic world has real autonomy, not even the US president.""
Nor have they ever done. Churchill was forced to accept future dismantling of the British Empire in return for the Marshall Plan in the Second World War.
And George W. Bush was forced to change the emphasis of his presidency after 9/11 by actions inspired by a psychopath in Afghanistan.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 27/10/2008 at 14:01
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Churchill was forced to accept And George W. Bush was forced to change the emphasis
Am I alone in finding this parallel excessively flattering to the outgoing (Alhamdulillah!) Leader of the Free World and his gang of sleazeball racist thieves?
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>>gang of sleazeball racist thieves? >>
While I agree with your first post in this thread that is completely OTT Lud, not really worthy of comment TBH.
Edited by cheddar on 27/10/2008 at 14:24
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Not OTT at all, moderate indeed.
But you're right, I shouldn't have said that here. Controversial. Can of worms.
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Am I alone
No.
You're right of course about Churchill and Roosevelt, though Roosevelt had severe difficulty persuading the conservatives in Congress and the Senate to support his New Deal. In fact the withdrawal of support from the legislature when the economy showed faint signs of revival resulted in the 'double dip' of 1937. Only the war persuaded them to spend more money and then only as a last resort, despite quite a lot of ships being lost in the Atlantic in the first year or so of the war. Great Leader he certainly was, but he was unable to lead as he would have liked.
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Am I alone in finding this parallel excessively flattering to the outgoing (Alhamdulillah!) Leader of the Free World and his gang of sleazeball racist thieves?
No, you are most certainly in good company.
I'm afraid it may be some time before we see another from Winston's mould break surface, if ever.
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In the present context though, with Britain boracic along with everyone else, perhaps Churchill was ill-chosen. But would I have got away with Attlee?
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I have always thought of Brown as the present day Chamberlain with his bit of paper saying "no boom and bust" on it.... trouble is, I can't see a Churchill in waiting.... which is worrying...
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Question for the economists here:
Was anyone forecasting the incipient recession, and particularly the banking crisis, back in say 2005 or 2006?
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Oh goodness yes, described perfectly over the last few years on other websites.
Edited by Webmaster on 28/10/2008 at 00:36
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Then could you please tell us which economists and commentators did so? Links would be interesting.
Edited by tyro on 27/10/2008 at 17:42
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www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
Nouriel Roubini is most famous advocate of crash
Also Roger Bootle Capital Economics
www.capitaleconomics.com/rogerbootle/index.php
warned for years in DT..see his book.
Most other economists are carp...especially those employed by HMG in the Treasury or the BOE
Edited by madf on 27/10/2008 at 17:56
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Then could you please tell us which economists and commentators did so? Links would be interesting.
The first one is the other paper [timesonline]. Search for that and include this in your search " Ten people who predicted the financial meltdown ".
"Vince Cable - deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats
Here is a question Mr Cable?s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: ?The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt??
Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: ?We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.? "
The second one is from the NY Times and goes back to 1999:
tinyurl.com/3jdn9e
Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending
By STEVEN A. HOLMES
Published: September 30, 1999
"In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.
...
...
In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.
''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.'' "
Edited by jbif on 27/10/2008 at 17:58
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Just google 'Fred Harrison' - been saying this was coming several years back. Been spot on too.
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Question for the economists here: Was anyone forecasting the incipient recession and particularly the banking crisis back in say 2005 or 2006?
Yes, certainly falls in house prices. It was careless in the extreme that interest rates dipped in 2005 when house prices were showing some signs f stabilizing. I think a few commentators had realized then that we were in the growth stage of a bubble.
The truly worrying thing is just how much potential the payouts form CDS's are in the event of a lot of companies and banks going bankrupt. Originally intended as a way of hedging investments, they've been used as a gambling tool and no-one knows just how much would be outstanding if a couple of major banks were to fail.
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Very interesting thread and some very knowledgable and well reasoned contributions which are from people who know far more about it than me (I know zilch!!) but tell me
1. If this "thing" is very much down to too much and too easy credit, why are people advocating lowering of interest rates to make credit easier to obtain but rewarding savers less?
2. If some of this "thing" is down to Govs spending far too much and borrowing too much, why are they spending so much on rescuing financial institutions by "borrowing" money?
3. How can we get ourselves out of this "thing" by "spending our way out of a recession" which was caused by us "spending our way into" recession?
4. If much of this "thing" is caused by a crisis of confidence, why do "our leaders" consistently keep telling us that "the worst is yet to come", "it's the biggest financial crisis ever", "we are going into recession", " the 1930s had nothing on this" etc - shouldn't they be doing the opposite?
Spent a very nice week in France last week, never bought a paper, never saw TV, never listened to the radio ------ life seemed much as ever - crisis, what crisis???!!!!
Oh dear, the pound plummetted against the euro - didn't realise 'til I looked at my credit card statement!!!!
Phil
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Many thanks to:
a) those who answered my question
b) PhilW for asking my next question
c) the mods for being patient with regard to this non-motoring-related discussion.
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Phil
1. Interest rates can - and likely will fall to 2% or nil.. but if no-one is going to lend you any money, it's irrelevant. Mortgages of 120% of valuation and 7 x earnings - N Rock - will be 80% and 3 times earnings .. so house prices halve.
2. They are rescuing the banks due to necessity: no banks = collapse of economy (literally)... They should jail a few hundred bankers as well but will not.(the US will).
3. We cannot spend our way out if we have too much debt and no-one will lend to those with no credit. SO consumer spending is going to collpase.. new car sales down 20% , auction prices collpasing - see HJ report.
4. The worst is going to be worse than anyone under 50 has ever experienced. It's going to be like Japan in the 1990s but worse.
Anyone who believes anything any politician says is 1. stupid. 2 has a short memory as they tell conflicting stories. 3. stupid , 4. credulous 5 stupid.. and 6 deserves to lose all their money.
If politicians told the truth they would say they were largely at fault for encouraging a debt fuelled spending spree by consumers etc... and ensuring the regulators - especially the FSA - saw it happening and did nowt. The FSA admitted theyscrewed up over N Rock and let the guy in charge of banking go - with a large bonus.
The Government borrowing is ballooning out of control - EXCLUDING bank bailouts and N Rock.. so expect big tax rises 2-3 years out.
Like 10p on income tax or 7% on VAT...or 25% cuts in welfare or both.
Any politician who denies it will happen is : a liar.
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Thanks madf, that's a pretty comprehensive reply and, I fear, pretty spot on!
But
1. It's a bit of a pink fluffy dice that the one time in the last 60 years I have a little bit of money in the bank and few debts that interest rates are likely to decline to nowt. I seem to remember that when I was really cash strapped with a young family and a big mortgage (in those days) that interest rates were about 15% - and interest on my credit card debts about double that!
2. Dead right - some of those so-and sos need stringing up. They walk away with their huge salaries and bonuses having been bailed out and the ordinary taxpayer has to pick up the bill - equivalent of £19,000 for everyone of us I read somewhere. Trouble is, most of us did not have a clue what they were doing - what on earth is a hedge fund/derivatives/futures/short-selling?? (hypothetical question - I don't even want to know!)
3. Even worse than you say - I have heard from a recently made redundant employee of a large car dealer in E Midlands that sales in year up to August were 30-40 cars a week. Since Sept they have been 3-4 cars a week. Another prestigious dealer in German cars sold 1 car in 5 days the week before last - previously also 30-40 a week.
I have had no faith in the FSA since they made Standard Life flog off most of their equities when the market was at its lowest a few years ago, thus ensuring that my endowment mortgage just met the mortgage but fell somewhat short (£29,800) of the £30,000 bonus we were supposed to get.
4. Come on madf! don't you start, talk us up, give us confidence, tell us to go out and buy, buy, buy shares!!! You know it makes sense!!
"Anyone who believes anything any politician says is 1. stupid. 2 has a short memory as they tell conflicting stories. 3. stupid , 4. credulous 5 stupid.. and 6 deserves to lose all their money."
What?? You mean you don't believe that we have seen the end of boom and bust? That UK is not "best placed" to see out the credit crunch? That the economy will grow by 2.5% this year? That Gordon has "saved the world" by acting decisively and injecting money into the system? That our financial businesses are the strongest in the world? That inflation is only 2%? That we have a "strong economy".
Dear me madf, you are a cynic.............. can I join your club???
Tell you what though - there are some bloomin' good deals available on both new and second hand cars at the mo' -as a Berlingo driver, I am torn between an Audi TT Quattro and a Boxster as a second car "runabout". Another few weeks of this and an Audi A5 may be affordable!!!
Good luck to all
Phil
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Anyone who believes anything any politician says is 1. stupid. 2 has a short memory as they tell conflicting stories. 3. stupid 4. credulous 5 stupid.. and 6 deserves to lose all their money.
>>>>
What about that which Vince Cable said in 2003 during PMQs, as quoted elsewhere in this thread? The bloke has been consistently right and the sanest voice in Parliament for years on this issue and others (Iraq?) and yet his party is roundly ignored.
Politicians don't have exclusivity on idiocy, it's endemic amongst us unwashed also.
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Phil
1/
Very good point; as cutting interest rates will crash the pound [we have little or no exporters that will benefit] and just embed inflation into our massive import bill.
2/
Probably because it seemed a good idea at the time. Spending some money patching the earthquake damage - just before the tsunami arrived....
3/
We can't; just about every similar attempt in history ended in disaster. See Japan. Appearing to have a cunning plan helps calm the passengers while the plane's crashing though...
4/
"Small earthquake in the Midlands; little damage done.." doesn't sell newspapers or forge media stardom.
P.S.
Anybody got any views on these people? www.goldbullionsecurities.com/sites/uk_gbp/shares/
Edited by Screwloose on 27/10/2008 at 21:50
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On the news tonight several thousand Jaguar workers have been sent home on basic wages, apparently the demand for their cars has all but dried up
The credit crunch isnt the whole problem, its the unfortunate fact that we were heading into recession anyway, a real double whammy
As for Brown he will be remembered as the most disastrous Chancellor/PM ever IMHO
And why when the price of a barrel of oil has dropped by 50% has a litre of petrol only gone down by 10%?
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And why when the price of a barrel of oil has dropped by 50% has a litre of petrol only gone down by 10%?
I know nothing about economics, but just to prove I've been reading the posts of the experts . . . "Because oil is priced in dollars and the value of sterling has collapsed against the dollar - a pound was worth $2 in July - only $1.55 now."
Did I get that right? ;-)
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There's more to it - please read the fuel thread rather than divert this one.
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Yep you got it right!
Only if Gordon Brown is right and we ARE 'uniquely placed to benefit from the upturn when it comes' with 'no return to boom and bust' and 'prudent financial planning'
why do foreign economist and traders think the UK downturn will be the worst of all western nations and why is the pound collapsing?
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Well my charts say today is the bottom for the markets - for a while..
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Well my charts say today is the bottom for the markets - for a while..
madf
You're a guru; the Dow has just closed 900 points up.
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You're a guru; the Dow has just closed 900 points up.
That is because the markets are accounting for an expected rate cut by the Fed which if it happens should help the £ v $ a little.
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You're a guru; the Dow has just closed 900 points up.
;-) You chose the right Sanskrit word "guru". It refers to a teacher or guide in a "religion" that is heavily based on mumbo-jumbo of scientifically proven superstition and unquestionably absolutely accurate astrological charts. :-0
" Well my charts say today is the bottom for the markets - for a while ".
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Couldn't help smiling this morning at the news that hedge funds have taken a caning in shorting VW shares.
They may want to complain but the German attitude to them is that they're "locusts" so they won't get far.
Bit of an error of judgement, what?
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Couldn't help smiling this morning at the news that hedge funds have taken a caning in shorting VW shares.
You obviously like a bit of "schadenfreude".
I thought you believed hedge funds always made profits, never any losses.
www.efinancialnews.com/homepage/pressdigest/conten...3
www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-10-28-short-se...m
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This thread is of great interest, I pay far more credance to the opinions expressed here rather than the financial forums simply because this is in general a motoring forum. It seems to then follow that anyone who sticks their head above the financial parapet on here actually knows their stuff.
The opinions expressed above will help considerably with sorting out personal finances.
When trading equities I have never really considered where they come from or go to; put the order in and it happens [ :-o ], though I have read that there some mystical figures termed 'market makers' flitting around on the floor of the stock exchange.
I have always assumed these to be sort of financial bookmakers, holding the shares for a short while until they find a buyer, making a profit from the difference in the 'buy' and 'sell' quote.
It has suddenly occurred to me that, if this is indeed so, and they feel that they cannot move a share on because no-one is buying, the market will collapse; after all they can only hold as many shares in their trading portfolio to the value of their credit facility, can't they?
Hopefully somebody will tell me I'm wrong, though is this scenario what has caused stock markets in other countries to be temporarily closed?
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Steptoe
Most shares have Market Makers.
In FTSE stocks and larger ones that are traded through the Stock Exchange Electronic Trading System, people put orders into a giant electronic spreadsheet and they are filled or not depending on which way the price moves. So Market makers are relatively unimportant as the market basically makes itself.
Smaller shares may be traded on SETS,,, but if thinly traded the Market makers may make a market by buying or selling from third parties, making a spread.. on resale.
If stock go up a lot, Market Makers may sell shares they do not own.. going short.. and buying back on the way down.
On the way down, Market Makers will hold as few shares as possible hence large falls on little volume.
The above is GROSSLY simplified: I could write a book - and be wrong! :-)
Edited by madf on 28/10/2008 at 09:23
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As I feel a twinge of guilt for killing this thread by taking it away from motoring.....
Life in my small Norfolk market town seems to be going on much as normal, but behind the scenes....I cycled down to the builders merchant this morning (two national chain operations adjacent to each other, shortly, with somewhat unfortunate timing, to be joined by a third) The place was deserted, with the staff rushing to oblige me with my modest needs, but what struck home was the car transporter business on the other side of the road: the entire fleet was parked in the yard as if it were Sunday. In fact in better times the wagons weren't there on Sunday either as they parked up in a layby somewhere in the country ready for Monday's job.
A frightening sight, considering how much of our economy revolves around motoring.
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I've heard this afternoon that a Honda dealer in the Bristol area has gone under - anyone local have any confirmation?
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I've heard this afternoon that a Honda dealer in the Bristol area has gone under - anyone local have any confirmation?
Not heard anything here, but I thought they were manufacturer owned.
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I was told about it in a garage this afternoon while discussing the deteriorating situation in the trade. The garage owner was a friend of a salesman in this unnamed Honda dealers.
Apparently the sales team were called in yesterday and told that they were all redundant and the dealership was going under. That's all I have at the mo.
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I think that there are two Honda dealers in Bristol and one in Bath that seem to be connected and are, I would guess, probably Honda owned.
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All manner of woe being spoken of locally tonight re Bentley. Allegedly cutting around 300 jobs. Night shift cancelled. 5 week "Christmas" shutdown.........tragic for local community.
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Business W reports -
One hundred staff at a Gloucestershire car dealership have spent the day coming to terms with being made unemployed with no pay and redundancy money.
All of the staff at Amethyst Honda, which has showrooms and garages in Cheltenham, Gloucester and Chippenham, have been hit by the closure of the business.
Some turned up at their places of work today seeking to retrieve their own tools from the workshops, and their personal belongings, to be met with shut doors. Customers cars were locked in garages still requiring work.
Unconfirmed reports suggest talks are underway with Volvo dealer Johnsons, which has a branch in Cole Avenue, Gloucester, as well as Slough, Solihull and the Midlands.
?It ceased trading yesterday (29/10),? said a former Amethyst staff member. ?Staff were told at 17.00 on Wednesday that the company had folded and told they had 15 mins to collect personal belongings and to leave.?
In a letter to staff, dated October 29, director of Amethyst Motor Company Ltd, Roger Moore, said:
?As you will no doubt be aware there has been significant decline in the motor sales industry in the UK in recent months as a result of the wider economic downturn and tightening of credit.
?The company has suffered severe financial difficulties due to these adverse market conditions. In an attempt to address these difficulties you may be aware that the company has recently made several redundancies in an effort to continue as a viable business.
?I am writing with great sadness and regret to confirm that despite your considerable efforts to ensure the future of the company, the board has resolved that the company is facing imminent insolvency. There the company has been placed into administration and steps have been taken today to commence appointment of joint administrators.
?It is therefore necessary for the company to terminate the employment of all of its employees for reasons of redundancy with immediate effect.The company will not be in a position to pay you any unpaid wages, notice pay, holiday pay and redundancy payments which you may be entitled to.?
No one at Amethyst was available for comment.
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Thanks FB; I was beginning to wonder a bit there....
If you can't make money selling Hondas in Cheltenham, Chippenham and Gloucester.....
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also gone today is www.sidlow.co.uk - if you google news Sidlow a load of different pages come up.
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also gone today is www.sidlow.co.uk
Yes; the news of that is now spreading. At this rate - after LSUK last month - I won't have a parts account left by X-mess. That's my VW and PSA supply gone.
There's a fair chance that around 75% of the dealer groups won't survive the next 12 months.
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If you can't make money selling Hondas in Cheltenham Chippenham and Gloucester.....
There are 2 lots of people going about
1) those with little / no money & maybe worried about their job/ finances. So they are not spending as much.
2) Those who have secure jobs and / or have money but not spending as much.
Result - shops in High Street not busy, new car sales down, nobody buying a new house. Nobody able to sell a house / 2nd hand car..........
It is the start of deflation - as bad as inflation.
Japan has had it for donkeys - why buy a car / home today - next week/month/year it is likely to be cheaper in the future.................
I have watched a private seller trying to sell a 2yr old (£32K new) 15K mls 3.5 ltr car - started 1 month ago at £18K, then £18K ono, it is now £11.5K ono.......................I might go for it if it gets to £9,000 - I fancy a bit of luxury motoring - only thing is I will need to keep it for ages as it will be worth even less as the months/years go by - nobody will want a 20mpg/£400RFL/group 17 car - except me!! ( and maybe another few BRs)
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