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All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - barney100

I expect car safety systems will brake for us, sensors will not allow vehicles over the speed limits...which will have many 20mph zones. Diesels and petrol cars will be on he well on way out in favour of electric cars. MOTs will be a nightmare with all the safety systems being failure risks. Any thoughts?

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - John F

As the average age of cars on the road is about 8yrs and rising, and the sales of electric cars are still less than 3% of the total, I think driving will be much the same as today, only more slowly!

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - FoxyJukebox

With the huge advance of Uber availability in both urban and rural areas plus the massive advance of On Line Shopping and the funeral of the High Street-I predict a dramatic fall in car ownership.

Rental or "Zip" cars will fill the gap if you desperately need a car for a longer trip.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Terry W

Timing is more difficult to estimate than the direction of travel. So the transition may start in earnest somewhere between 8 - 15 years. Thereafter choosing conventional technologies will become increasingly costly and operationally inconvenient.

1. On line shopping reduces need for personal travel

2. local and national policy willly mandate against internal combustion is urban areas

3 Tax policy - cost and subsidies - will encourage more charging points and reduced running costs

4. Driverless cars could have a major impact on vehicle selection and massively enhance transport options particularly in towns and cities.

5. Current cars generally have a working life of 10-15 years before repair costs become excessive, I would expect roads to carry both new and old technologies for 10 years +.

As an aside I am currently looking for a new car. I typically keep them for 6 or 7 years and seek to upgrade before age related repairs become material - exhausts, batteries, steering and suspension bushes, clutch etc. I fully expect this to be the last or penultimate conventional purchase. As soon as alternatives (driverless, electric) become viable the bottom will fall out the conventional vehicle market with non existent trade in values.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - madf

In ten years time I will be 80 - so slowly...

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - James2018

Re car longevity, I wonder if some expensive electronic components will be module swappable like aircraft components. When they fail or after so many hours they will be sent back to the manufacturer for a refurbishment and re-certification. This may keep overall costs under control and may be a little more ecologically sound.

It already happens with some components, I deal with companies that send alternators and starter motors back for refurbishment.

I think it should be illegal not to make repairable or replaceable sub-parts (there was an example on this site recently when a small cosmetic ring on a Jag I think resulted in a repair quote of several hundred pounds).

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - gordonbennet
I think it should be illegal not to make repairable or replaceable sub-parts (there was an example on this site recently when a small cosmetic ring on a Jag I think resulted in a repair quote of several hundred pounds).

That used to be one of Mercedes strengths, you could buy sub parts and for many many years after manufacture, especially on the more basic models in a range, not sure if that's the same now but they went down some odd paths in the 90's and beyond on more expensive models by doing things like permanently fixing bottom ball joints in the suspension leg or wishbone, raising the price of a ball joint failure from circa £15 to sometimes £1000+.

Couple of years ago i had to replace the seat belt guide on our old coupe, chap at the (now in the showroom) parts desk quoted me some £250 for the whole seat belt presenter mechanism, until i pointed out to him the part i needed on the screen which was available separately for £16 all in, not sure i'm terribly welcome at the MB glass palace.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - focussed

"not sure i'm terribly welcome at the MB glass palace"

Reminds me of when I searched out my nearest French Mitsi dealer to get a wiper arm because my UK online supplier was out of stock.

They are also a Porsche dealer in shared premises so you can imagine the looks of disgust when scruffy old me in wellys and a muddy old 2005 L200 turned up!

Needless to say they didn't have one so went to the nearest scrappy!

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - davecooper
Once my current car contract expires I am going to get a small cheap to buy and run local runabout and rent something for trips away. Rental rates in my area are fairly low and it makes more sense than having a shiny new car depreciating in the drive. It's also nice getting to drive a range of different cars. That's how I will be driving in 10 years time.
All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Sulphur Man

That's smart thinking. Lots of very sound used cars fo the price of an initial payment on lease. I can see the car rental business getting bigger and more profitable, with rental stations popping up everywhere. I know two families, both use bicycles and public transport, dont own a car, and just rent one for when they need one. They seem completely stress-free too. And they have lots of lavish holidays. Concidence?

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

With the huge advance of Uber availability in both urban and rural areas plus the massive advance of On Line Shopping and the funeral of the High Street-I predict a dramatic fall in car ownership.

Rental or "Zip" cars will fill the gap if you desperately need a car for a longer trip.

Most people I know commute to work by car, and have no choice. Plus I drive to the local ice rink 4 times a week, and once a fortnight to the skate sharpener. Then there’s buying compost, shopping etc. Public transport and car sharing are too inconvenient. Journeys take twice as long if not much longer than that.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif
I don’t see electric cars being mainstream for many reasons. Firstly we simply do not have the generating capacity to support large numbers of dodgems, and it takes a decade or more to bring new capacity on stream. I don’t see this happening. Secondly the prices are sky high, dodgems cost a fortune compared to conventional cars. If petrol tax is moved onto electric cars, they’ll cost far more than today. Thirdly batteries are heavy and limit the range greatly, requiring significant infrastructure. It might be that battery technology improves greatly. A doubling of efficiency would be a godsend, but I cannot see that happening. But you never know. In my view electric may take over but only when petrol is a no no, perhaps due to dwindling supplies. Or a Corbyn government, God save us.
All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - argybargy

The so called "shadow banks" that finance PCPs will collapse, and so will the new car market. Soaring fuel prices due to chronic unrest in the Middle East will make driving almost unaffordable for owners of cars with engines above 1.4 litres.

Second hand small car sales will surge, especially the market in 15 year old Honda Jazz's, and the model will become the most sought after car of all. Owners will be able to more or less name their price.

Says so here in me tea leaves.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - drd63

Have you got a 1.4 Jazz you're trying to sell by any chance?

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - argybargy

Have you got a 1.4 Jazz you're trying to sell by any chance?

Its far too good an investment to sell just yet (it says here). ;0)

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Sulphur Man

By coincidence, I took my mother-in-law's 2007 Jazz SE CVT to a webuyanycar.com appointment for a valuation. The car is FHSH, just 37000 miles, clean MOT. However the front wing has damage, ditto the rear bumper, all the alloys are scuffed, and it may have a damp problem. In spite of all that, he offered £2600.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Sofa Spud

A lot of the cars on the roads today will still be around in 10 years time and many current models are only part-way through their production runs so will be on sale for a few years yet.So a significant proportion of the car population then will be familiar to us.

But I think most new cars and vans will be electric by then. Battery ranges will have improved a bit but the big game changer is likely to be a greatly improved charging network and the availability of ultra-fast chargers - these are already under development.

Where will all the extra electricity come from? Doing away with oil refineries, which consume a huge amount of electricity.

www.plugincars.com/refining-oil-requires-more-elec...l

www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-and-chris-paine-...T

www.autoblog.com/2011/10/14/how-gas-cars-use-more-...1

Edited by Sofa Spud on 12/06/2018 at 00:26

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

But I think most new cars and vans will be electric by then. Battery ranges will have improved a bit but the big game changer is likely to be a greatly improved charging network and the availability of ultra-fast chargers - these are already under development.

Where will all the extra electricity come from? Doing away with oil refineries, which consume a huge amount of electricity.

www.plugincars.com/refining-oil-requires-more-elec...l

www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-and-chris-paine-...T

www.autoblog.com/2011/10/14/how-gas-cars-use-more-...1

The idea that oil refining consumes more electricity energy than there is energy in the refined oil is nonsense. We will have a massive shortage of electricity if dodgems become common. We are already close to the limit at peak times. Fast chargers everywhere, at all parking spaces would make a huge difference, but it'd be road works hell. Something to look forward too ...

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - tourantass
Maybe every car will have its own wind turbine on its roof charging its self as it weaves merrilly down the forests of wind turbines.....we can only just cope with the demand on the grid at half time of a cup final... let alone charge every car.....I can imagine fully charged batteries being sold on the black market :-)
All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Sofa Spud

You can find the facts and figures on the internet showing that it takes as much electricity (at the refinery stage) to run a petrol or diesel car as it would to run an electric car. You can also find facts and figures that dispute this. But if it takes 5-7 kWh to refine a (US) gallon of fuel, that amount of electricity will drive a Tesla Model S 20-30 miles.

Petrol and diesel engines have a thermal efficiency of between 20% and 40%. That means between 60% and 80% of the energy contained in the fuel is wasted as heat or absorbed by frictional losses. An electric car is said to be about 80% efficient, so the losses are only about 20%. Not sure whether that figure includes the savings through regenerative braking.

Edited by Sofa Spud on 12/06/2018 at 10:47

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - John F

Petrol and diesel engines have a thermal efficiency of between 20% and 40%. That means between 60% and 80% of the energy contained in the fuel is wasted as heat or absorbed by frictional losses. An electric car is said to be about 80% efficient, so the losses are only about 20%. Not sure whether that figure includes the savings through regenerative braking.

Remember that only about half the energy generated by power stations gets to the end user. Much is lost at the station itself and then in transmission. This makes a mockery of any argument trying to justify the 'efficiency' of electric cars. It seems to me their sole advantage in saving energy is regenerative braking.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

Petrol and diesel engines have a thermal efficiency of between 20% and 40%. That means between 60% and 80% of the energy contained in the fuel is wasted as heat or absorbed by frictional losses. An electric car is said to be about 80% efficient, so the losses are only about 20%. Not sure whether that figure includes the savings through regenerative braking.

Remember that only about half the energy generated by power stations gets to the end user. Much is lost at the station itself and then in transmission. This makes a mockery of any argument trying to justify the 'efficiency' of electric cars. It seems to me their sole advantage in saving energy is regenerative braking.

And the batteries weigh a tonne, figuratively speaking, so huge amounts of energy are lost simply moving the battery around. Note that electric central heating is far more expensive than gas CH which tells us these clams about electricity are nonsense..

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - John F

Remember that only about half the energy generated by power stations gets to the end user. Much is lost at the station itself and then in transmission. This makes a mockery of any argument trying to justify the 'efficiency' of electric cars. It seems to me their sole advantage in saving energy is regenerative braking.

And the batteries weigh a tonne, figuratively speaking, so huge amounts of energy are lost simply moving the battery around. Note that electric central heating is far more expensive than gas CH which tells us these clams about electricity are nonsense..

And oil fuel CH, requiring no fixed cable/pipe distribution service, is cheapest of all, thanks to gb and his large wheeled oil cans ;-)

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - focussed

And oil fuel CH, requiring no fixed cable/pipe distribution service, is cheapest of all, thanks to gb and his large wheeled oil cans ;-)

No- my CH is cheaper - I use the wood from my own small patch of woodland, it just costs me my own effort, a chainsaw and a 6 tonne splitter!

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

And oil fuel CH, requiring no fixed cable/pipe distribution service, is cheapest of all, thanks to gb and his large wheeled oil cans ;-)

No- my CH is cheaper - I use the wood from my own small patch of woodland, it just costs me my own effort, a chainsaw and a 6 tonne splitter!

Sadly wood fired stoves produce very toxic pollution.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - TheGentlemanThug

I'm inclined to agree that purely electric cars are still a long way off. The technology and (more importantly) infrastructure just isn't there yet, not to mention the price.

Whatever happened to hydrogen-powered vehicles like the Honda Clarity? They seem like a better option to me.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Sofa Spud

A long way off?

Over 300,000 of the old model Nissan Leaf were produced. Tesla have made over 200,000 of its Model S and over 70,000 Model X while Renault has recently produced its 100,000th Zoe. That's a total of 670,000. Compare that with the total production the the MGB between 1962 and 1980, which was bit over 520,000.

The new Tesla Model 3, after a shaky start to production, is now being built at the rate of around 3,000 per week.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - TheGentlemanThug

That's great, but how many of them are on UK roads? At the moment, an electric car only works for someone who travels short journeys and has the ability to recharge their car securely. It'll take a miracle for electric cars to become the norm over the next decade, at least in the UK.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against the electric car. If a car does what I need it to at a price I can afford then I'm not particularly bothered about how it's being powered. But, there are massive, glaring issues with purely electric cars in the UK which I don't see being addressed any time soon.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - madf

Electric car charging will require special parkng stations for the thousands of cars on matorways trying to recharge for 1-2 hours..Anyone who does understand logistics realise that is going to takes 5-10 years for planning and running cabling to the sites. Proponents of electric cars don't appear to understand logistics - see Tesla's continuing inability to make cars in volume they planned for.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Alby Back
I've often thought that there must be a market for a decluttered car, sort of the Dacia principle but taken further. A car that has everything you need to get around but nothing you don't.

In a way, I suppose the original Mini was pretty close to that. Not sure if there's a modern equivalent or indeed if it could legally be sold given today's and forthcoming legislation.

Edited by Alby Back on 12/06/2018 at 14:28

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Bianconeri
I've often thought that there must be a market for a decluttered car, sort of the Dacia principle but taken further. A car that has everything you need to get around but nothing you don't. In a way, I suppose the original Mini was pretty close to that. Not sure if there's a modern equivalent or indeed if it could legally be sold given today's and forthcoming legislation.

I agree. It really surprises me that to get a well-made and comfortable car you often get a whole load of pointless add-ons and driver distraction devices landed on you.

James May once described the Panda as all the car you need and I agree about the original Mini, perhaps the Nuova 500 too.

Legislation, of course, adds to the complexity but it’s fashion and perceived need that fuels a lot of the pointless ‘features’ on modern cars, and a seemingly insatiable desire to carry ‘stuff’ that fuels the constant growth of the cars that are on sale.
All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - TheGentlemanThug

The Nissan Pixo comes pretty close.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - barney100

Seem to remember the old Beetle not having a fuel guage. I think you are right, you might be on to something, just good quality with nothing unessential binned.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Bolt

Seem to remember the old Beetle not having a fuel guage. I think you are right, you might be on to something, just good quality with nothing unessential binned.

I doubt its as easy as that, as everything is microchip now,ie, all electronics are processor controlled and built into the chip, so takes up no room to speak off. you cannot leave anything out from a piece of silicon, so all it needs is thin/lightweight cabling and sensors or bluetooth transmission

the days of unessential are gone in that you either buy it or leave it, but I can`t see many leaving it as most want the latest tech....

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Avant

That's the point isn't it - 'most want the latest tech'.

The basic no-frills car makes perfect logical sense - except that not many people,particularly in the UK, would buy it. I'm sure I read somewhere that Dacia sell may more of the higher-up versions of their cars than the very basic versions whose low price makes the headlines.

I've also heard that French people are much readier to buy basic versions. A high percentage of them buy cars made in France, which don't go wrong often as they don't have all the complex electronics that the British insist on.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

That's the point isn't it - 'most want the latest tech'.

The basic no-frills car makes perfect logical sense - except that not many people,particularly in the UK, would buy it. I'm sure I read somewhere that Dacia sell may more of the higher-up versions of their cars than the very basic versions whose low price makes the headlines.

I've also heard that French people are much readier to buy basic versions. A high percentage of them buy cars made in France, which don't go wrong often as they don't have all the complex electronics that the British insist on.

Having owned a basic VW TakeUp, and now a Polo, I’ll take the Polo any time. It’s not the latest tech. It’s traction control that can save your life. And air con with recirculating that can make the car bearable. Heated wing mirrors are safer. And decent audio with CarPlay that makes driving a sheer pleasure. You are of course right that basic is more reliable.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Bolt

You are of course right that basic is more reliable.

in this day and age, electronics should be more reliable apart from money making by the OEMs, all electrics should outlast a cars life so the idea that the more loaded a car is the less reliable it is should not be the case

I think as far as EVs are concerned batteries will become more efficient and quicker charging with larger capacity, and motors getting smaller and more powerfull using less power, though as I said before hybrids will take over for a while as the perception is they are better for the environment

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - argybargy
I've often thought that there must be a market for a decluttered car, sort of the Dacia principle but taken further. A car that has everything you need to get around but nothing you don't. In a way, I suppose the original Mini was pretty close to that. Not sure if there's a modern equivalent or indeed if it could legally be sold given today's and forthcoming legislation.

I agree with that also. My Jazz has electric windows all round, climate control, heated mirrors but its the basic ES version. Thats about as much tech as I need in a car. Anything else is flim flam, fluff, stuff to tell folks about if you're a bit of a nerd and think they're easily impressed.

It probably has traction control too, but I drive so slowly most of the time that I'll probably never need it.

In the short time I owned it, my B Max threw up several warnings about the temporary loss of various monitoring devices: tyre pressures, for example, which when checked were fine. These warnings always cleared themselves, and none of them ever threatended to make any difference to the driveability of the car. But what they DID do, they eroded my confidence in the vehicle, rather than enhancing it.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - SteVee

I agree that the Jazz has everything I want - and very little that I don't

My 2014 ES CVT has climate-control, folding mirrors etc. There are no touch-sensitive screens, DRLs, TPMS, EPB etc. It even uses R134a refrigerant. I don't have any parking aids on it - I can see clearly all around. The TC/CVT is an absolute joy - very easy when manouevering, or in traffic. At 70MPH the engine typically runs about 2200 RPM. It overtakes easily also.

Suitable cars also available from other manufacturers :-)

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - argybargy

I agree that the Jazz has everything I want - and very little that I don't

My 2014 ES CVT has climate-control, folding mirrors etc. There are no touch-sensitive screens, DRLs, TPMS, EPB etc. It even uses R134a refrigerant. I don't have any parking aids on it - I can see clearly all around. The TC/CVT is an absolute joy - very easy when manouevering, or in traffic. At 70MPH the engine typically runs about 2200 RPM. It overtakes easily also.

Suitable cars also available from other manufacturers :-)

Must admit, I do slightly miss the DRLs. They gave the front end of the Ford a sort of "scary face" look, which might have made my presence on the road appear more intimidating than it really is.

Since the change of vehicle, I assume other road users think I'm a pensioner whose flat cap is in the wash.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Alby Back
I suppose it's a natural enough human trait to imagine that people are aware of us, and making judgements or drawing conclusions about us depending on what car we happen to be driving. But I rather suspect that none of us are usually generating any significant interest from others at all.

Unless another vehicle in my close proximity is being driven in an extreme manner, whether that be too fast, too slowly, too inattentively or indeed too dangerously, I'm not at all bothered what it is, what it looks like or who is driving it. I'm inclined to think that most other road users won't especially have noticed or cared about me or what I was driving unless I did something to inconvenience them.

All - How will we be driving in ten years time? - Leif

Electric car charging will require special parkng stations for the thousands of cars on matorways trying to recharge for 1-2 hours..Anyone who does understand logistics realise that is going to takes 5-10 years for planning and running cabling to the sites. Proponents of electric cars don't appear to understand logistics - see Tesla's continuing inability to make cars in volume they planned for.

And Jaguar is about to bring out their own dodgem, followed soon by other makers. Tesla may. well go bust.