If in 7 years time, come 2030, the charging network is still a mess, range still a problem, and the government through a desire not to lose face stick with the ban on ICE:
- the value of s/h ICE will rise as folk hang on to their much loved, fill it in 5 minutes, proven technology. No new ones to be had though
- the cost of new EVs will fall as manufacturers with capacity greater than demand try to shift stock
- the government invest lots of money in extra generation and distribution capacity in a desperate effort to prove they had it right all along
It doesn't atter whether the 2030 ban works well or not. It will make not the slightest real difference to personal transport until 2040 when the ICE cars sold during the next 7 years start to reach banger status and begin getting scrapped.
It will, because car manufacturers cannot just switch back to R&D on and making ICE cars if the ban on new ones gets pushed back 5, 10 or even 20 years. We're alraedy seeing a big push into EVs and very little new ICE or hubrids entering the market during the past 3 years.
As a result, many people will be forced to choose between buying an EV, which likely won't be suitable or will have charging issues (network as you described), paying vastly more for said EV or the few ICE new cars left on sale, similarly paying hugely inflated prices for second hand ICE cars, or giving up and either continuing to run their old car or stopping driving altogether.
A much easier decision for the well-off than not, all caused by poor decision-making led by people who mean to fleece the less well-off to further enrich themselves, gain more power and keep the roads, skies and holiday areas abroad to themselves.
Rather like things were pre-WWII.
|
