I think the OP is referring to the associated businesses upstream, for example component suppliers. Any business making spark plugs, oil filters, catalysts, clutches, gearboxes etc. might need to start diversifying.
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Cars going electric will impact on drivetrains - but the rest of the vehicle will be largely unchanged - body, windows, doors, seats, controls, lights, wiper motors etc etc.
The larger changes may be in other areas.
Over the next 10-20 years forecourts will close, with EV charging in a different way and location (car parks, driveways, shopping centres, offices etc).
Some (or many) existing ICE manufacturers will struggle to remain competitive and fail, allowing new entrants into the market to thrive (eg: Tesla). Battery manufacture and design may be the key to market success.
EV may also encourage introduction of autonomous vehicles. The winners may include software, sensor manufacurers and communications specialists. Google, Microsoft and Apple may be the new kids on the transport block.
The hardware - body, suspension, seats etc - will become the low tech, low value bits. Just as a £100 smartphone is the same size (and mostly the same materials) as a £1000 iPhone - the difference is the software.
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Over the next 10-20 years forecourts will close, with EV charging in a different way and location (car parks, driveways, shopping centres, offices etc).
Gridserve are planning 100+ Electric Forecourts over the next 5 years - their first one in Braintree has 36 rapid chargers, and the usual retail opportunities you find at a motorway service station - supermarket, newsagent and coffee shop. Because a stop will be longer than that of an ICE car, there’s a comfy lounge upstairs with a couple of exercise bikes and mini conference rooms that can be rented by the hour.
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Because a stop will be longer than that of an ICE car,
Maybe now, but in 5 years I would expect to find charging the same as filling up with petrol/diesel, otherwise they can keep EVs.
progress with charging has come a long way so far, and expect with battery tech to improve even more to the point charging will be quicker than filling with fossil fuels, its certainly on the way and I suspect will be the difference between selling an EV or not
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Maybe now, but in 5 years I would expect to find charging the same as filling up with petrol/diesel, otherwise they can keep EVs.
Unless supply cables can handle many many amps (rather costly) I don't think charging will ever approach the speed of filling a tank. People will get used to topping up more often.
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Because a stop will be longer than that of an ICE car,
Maybe now, but in 5 years I would expect to find charging the same as filling up with petrol/diesel, otherwise they can keep EVs.
progress with charging has come a long way so far, and expect with battery tech to improve even more to the point charging will be quicker than filling with fossil fuels, its certainly on the way and I suspect will be the difference between selling an EV or not
Battery/charging tech is indeed improving but to be able to charge a battery in the same time as filling your tank in 5 years time is I am afraid living in cloud cookoo land. Ever felt the back of your mobile after a 1 hour charge. My new mobile (Samsung) had fast charging enabled and it got hotter than I liked and I disabled it. Imagine hundreds of such batteries packed together and charging in 5 minutes, where would all the heat go unless you had a really wonderful cooling system.
We only do 4 trips a year where charging would be necessary when we are away from home providing we bought a car with a "real" 280 mile range, some are available even today, in 5 years it will probably be the norm. Those 2 trips a year will take more time in an electric car but we will just have to accept it providing there are adequate charging points available. And I don't mean fictional 5 minute ones, a one hour delay on route will be acceptable to us (probably split into 3 shorter stops for comfort reasons). Looking at it like that it will add 30 minutes to each journey.
Personally I expect the national network to be very different to what we see today in 5 years time. Think back 5 years what was it like then, in truth I have no idea but the only ones I ever saw were at our local Sainsbury's (with an old Prius or Renault Clio parked in the bays). The Tesco we will use today has 4 "free" charging points and the only car that is normally there is a Tesla (probably the branch manager).
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is I am afraid living in cloud cookoo land
Be interesting to see if I am living in cloud cuckoo land, but as you don`t know what battery tech will be like then, and as so much work is being done to improve it, we will see.
as for mobile phone charging, they have thermal overload cut outs and overcurrent to prevent fires (I know they don`t always work but maybe because the owner mistreats the phone, which often happens )
I expect the network to be different by then, but what I expect and what will happen is another thing
everyone has there own ideas!
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Just as a £100 smartphone is the same size (and mostly the same materials) as a £1000 iPhone - the difference is the software.
No, the main difference is the premium people will pay for the latest gizmo. Some of it will be software, but it obsolesces so soon that profits have to made asap or it isn't worth doing.
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Just as a £100 smartphone is the same size (and mostly the same materials) as a £1000 iPhone - the difference is the software.
No, the main difference is the premium people will pay for the latest gizmo. Some of it will be software, but it obsolesces so soon that profits have to made asap or it isn't worth doing.
its the components that go into a phone, they maybe similar but are the lower quality of the same part for cheaper phones, the software (not including Apple) is the same Android, which is tweaked for every time a new version comes out, but hardware changes every year/or 2 for improved speed and compatibility with other parts. so I cant say its the same with a car as often they use the same parts for years not one or two
the VW ID4 motor is designed to fit in different model cars, where the Tesla motor only fits the car it was fitted in, VW will alter power output according to the car its going in but the casing/mounting points will be the same
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From today subsidies cut on all EVs including commercials see "latest news" posted on this site. Government at last seeing that if you can afford an EV then you do not need any help?
On EVs in general the charging network needs to accelerate to keep up. I was in Hopwood services on the M42 recently where they have about 15 Tesla chargers and all but 2 were occupied. This is a very busy services and I am at a loss to see what happens if you turn up in your Tesla and have to wait to charge. If there are other Teslas waiting to charge how do you form a queue without blocking the access. You might also when it is busy have to park some 100yards away so how do reserve a charger without someone just coming along and jumping in. This can of course happen with other EVs on their chargers so just how will you queue or reserve a slot. I think this scenario is waiting to happen or is already happening without adequate chargers at busy times
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Tesla are entirely capable of incorporating into their software a link to the sat-nav which will tell you which charging points are available, nearing capacity or with waiting times.
It could also include an algorithm to advise where best to recharge with the minimum impact on journey times.
I also assume that Tesla (and other charging point operators) monitor usage and prioritise capacity increases depending on demand.
This is all plausible - but I tend to be "glass half full" rather than "glass half empty".
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Tesla are entirely capable of incorporating into their software a link to the sat-nav which will tell you which charging points are available, nearing capacity or with waiting times.
It could also include an algorithm to advise where best to recharge with the minimum impact on journey times.
I also assume that Tesla (and other charging point operators) monitor usage and prioritise capacity increases depending on demand.
This is all plausible - but I tend to be "glass half full" rather than "glass half empty".
Yes all very plausible but what do you think goes on in the real world while you are waiting for all these problems to be solved.
Just how does one queue for a charger or do you envisage cars all diving on a free charger at the same time. Or would drivers take the polite approach of ""after you"" NO after you!. You could get you partner to lie down in the bay while you get the car!
Any other suggestions welcome as I can foresee possible charger rage.
PS this is written in humour!
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The Tesco we will use today has 4 "free" charging points and the only car that is normally there is a Tesla (probably the branch manager).
3 cars in the spaces at Tesco today, all plugged in and not a Tesla in sight. A Vauxhall Grandland PHEV, a Skoda Enyaq (I think) and a MG ZS EV.
Every little helps.
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Many sat-navs now have real time traffic and will re-route drivers for the quickest route.
Initially this was a real benefit to those who could afford the technology - they were one of a small number who got re-routed and avoided the traffic jam.
Once all have the technology the advantage disappears. All drivers are rerouted to minimise time lost. Or perhaps drivers will pay through road charging for a faster route.
What has this to do with charging - initially those with the technology find unoccupied chargers easily. As more drivers acquire the technology the advantage disappears.
However. unlike the road network where capacity is effectively fixed (it can take a decade to build a new road) charging capacity may be upgraded flexibly to meet demand.
I am certain there will be odd days when a local problem develops - eg: traffic jams or charge point congestion on bank holidays on the M5. But if you have any sense you will try to avoid peak periods anyway!
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"From today subsidies cut on all EVs including commercials see "latest news" posted on this site."
Important bits of the article are:
"From today, 15 December, the Government will provide grants of up to £1500 for electric cars priced under £32,000. Grants for commercial vehicles have also been cut to £5000 for large vans and £2500 for small vans.
The grant for plug-in hybrids has been scrapped altogether. Previously vehicles with CO2 emissions of less than 50g/km and can travel at least 70 miles without any emissions would qualify.
Motorcycle and moped grants will also change, with the Government now providing £500 off the cost of a motorcycle, and £150 for mopeds."
I'm in two minds about it - partly I think those who can afford the new prices of Tesla etc should not be subsidised but then the other side of the coin is the subsidies are being used to encourage a new direction and those new cars will be available to less well-heeled motorists in the future.
Edited by Xileno on 15/12/2021 at 20:39
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My experience with public chargers has been disappointing. I used a Tesco site provided by Podpoint. I was hoping to use the 50kwh ccs charger but it was out of service. So used the 7kwh free electric point and had a leisurely coffee in the cafe. One hour later and off with a extra 26 miles. Had the ccs been working it would have been full in less time. Still free power not complaining.
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Tesla are entirely capable of incorporating into their software a link to the sat-nav which will tell you which charging points are available, nearing capacity or with waiting times. It could also include an algorithm to advise where best to recharge with the minimum impact on journey times.
The usual facile answer that there is a software solution. While the above is feasible, will the system be able to tell how long all the occupiers of the chargers will remain connected ? How far ahead will a driver aiming to recharge at a certain place need to decide what to do ? Software isn't very good at calculating humans' next moves.
I have no personal interest in the difficulties of EV owners, but it certainly looks as if there will be plenty for some time to come.
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Use the free App called Zap Map. Tells you where the charge points are and if they are available. Also the cost.
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those new cars will be available to less well-heeled motorists in the future.
With much degraded battery pack.
Problem with subsidies like car, stamp duty holiday etc. is that it simply pushes the price up as sellers want more profit, thus negating the advantage of the subsidy.
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those new cars will be available to less well-heeled motorists in the future.
With much degraded battery pack.
Problem with subsidies like car, stamp duty holiday etc. is that it simply pushes the price up as sellers want more profit, thus negating the advantage of the subsidy.
Buyers have at least as much responsibility in setting prices as sellers - if something is over-priced, don't buy it!
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Use the free App called Zap Map. Tells you where the charge points are and if they are available. Also the cost.
Yes, but in simple terms: if you are there, you can see for yourself; and if you still need to get there, will they still be available ?
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Ignore.
Edited by thunderbird on 16/12/2021 at 09:44
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Dropped in at Hopgood services for a sarnie on M42 yesterday. Three guys standing around their car by the Ecotricity chargers scratching heads and fiddling with phones. Car not connected. A few minutes later they leave. Both chargers out of service. Meanwhile 16 Tesla chargers all operational with cars coming and going. Go figure.
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A friend has a Porsche Taycan and was forced to hire a SUV when he went on holiday to Cornwall.
But with the state of the infrastructure in the UK I can see service stations installing diesel generators to cope with the demand.
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But with the state of the infrastructure in the UK I can see service stations installing diesel generators to cope with the demand.
Defeats the object doing that, but then the rescue services use them to get EVs going again if they run out of juice....I thought Tesla were going to let other cars use the charging network? or has that not happened yet?
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Is their network even sufficient?
You see a lot of broken superchargers, that is for sure.
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"I thought Tesla were going to let other cars use the charging network?"
I would be very surprised of they did that, it would undermine their biggest USP. Imagine how annoyed a Tesla driver would be if they couldn't charge up as there was another make using the charger. Maybe they will only have a few that can be shared.
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I think I read somewhere that they (can’t remember if here or in the EU) are planning to legislate for the sockets to be a universal fit.
Imagine if petrol pumps were brand specific, unthinkable!
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Sounds like the whole idea of EVs is flawed. With no market in cold climates and lack of necessary infrastructure the way forward to net zero emissions we have got to look towards Hydrogen.
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Sounds like the whole idea of EVs is flawed.
Yes, it is :-)
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I read the other day that to cover all cars if they were all EVs, we'd need 400,000 ultrafast+ charging points to get anywhere near the same coverage and 'refuelling' time as we currently have for ICE vehicles.
Accurate figures vary for the actual number installed - never mind working - of any type at the moment, but I've seen anything from a just a few thousand to 40k, and most of them ain't fast chargers, let alone ultrafast ones.
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The Grid could not cope if half a million cars plugged in to fast charge at night in winter.
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Why would you want to fast charge at night?
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The Grid could not cope if half a million cars plugged in to fast charge at night in winter.
Perhaps this is another reason the subsidy is being reduced. Too many electric cars too quickly will not help the electric cause. The grid is only just hanging on by the skin if its teeth this winter.
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The Grid could not cope if half a million cars plugged in to fast charge at night in winter.
Perhaps this is another reason the subsidy is being reduced. Too many electric cars too quickly will not help the electric cause. The grid is only just hanging on by the skin if its teeth this winter.
Not so certain about the grid not coping. I read today that we have an interconnector with Norway as well as other countries so that electric can be "bounced" back and forth depending on demand. That is not to say that other countries will need to charge their own EVs but a system is there and improving all the time. The theory sounds good but lets get through this winter!
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Boring though it is, a few objective numbers may help distinguish reality from rumour and unevidenced assertion..
An EV does ~3-4 miles/kwh. A range of ~200 miles needs a 50-65 Kwh battery. Average mileage of 10k pa means charging once per week (or partial charge 2-3 times).
There are currently ~350k EV on UK roads. Over the next 5 years assuming EV account for 50% of sales there will be ~5m in use.
Averagely charging (say) 70kwh once per week is 10 kwh per day. So electrical demand will be an additional 50m kwh (50 gigawatts) daily.
UK demand over the last year averages ~32 GW/hour - total output of ~750 GW per day. As I write current output when dark, december and chilly is ~40GW.
Providing power for 5m EV in say 5 years time will add ~7% to total electrical demand in the UK. If in the future (15-20 years) there are 30m EV on the road the increase in demand will be 40-45% higher than current.
Conclusions:
- electrical output can be increased to cope with additional EV demands. Needs some investment in capacity and distribution over the next 20 years
- averages are simplistic - there will be peaks and troughs over the 24 hour day, weather may influence range, holidays alter demand patterns etc.
- pricing will inevitably evolve to allow owners to charge flexibly and save money, or charge fast and pay more. This will moderate the peaks.
- some owners will want or need frequent fast charging, for many (probably most) slow charge rates will be entirely satisfactory overnight, at work etc.
- fear-mongering about mass electrical failures with millions stranded at the side of the road for want of a few kilowatts is patently daft.
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Boring though it is, a few objective numbers may help distinguish reality from rumour and unevidenced assertion..
An EV does ~3-4 miles/kwh. A range of ~200 miles needs a 50-65 Kwh battery. Average mileage of 10k pa means charging once per week (or partial charge 2-3 times).
There are currently ~350k EV on UK roads. Over the next 5 years assuming EV account for 50% of sales there will be ~5m in use.
Averagely charging (say) 70kwh once per week is 10 kwh per day. So electrical demand will be an additional 50m kwh (50 gigawatts) daily.
UK demand over the last year averages ~32 GW/hour - total output of ~750 GW per day. As I write current output when dark, december and chilly is ~40GW.
Providing power for 5m EV in say 5 years time will add ~7% to total electrical demand in the UK. If in the future (15-20 years) there are 30m EV on the road the increase in demand will be 40-45% higher than current.
Conclusions:
- electrical output can be increased to cope with additional EV demands. Needs some investment in capacity and distribution over the next 20 years
- averages are simplistic - there will be peaks and troughs over the 24 hour day, weather may influence range, holidays alter demand patterns etc.
- pricing will inevitably evolve to allow owners to charge flexibly and save money, or charge fast and pay more. This will moderate the peaks.
- some owners will want or need frequent fast charging, for many (probably most) slow charge rates will be entirely satisfactory overnight, at work etc.
- fear-mongering about mass electrical failures with millions stranded at the side of the road for want of a few kilowatts is patently daft.
Problem is that you don't take into account:
1. How many people live in houses (e.g. terraced) or homes (flats or houses) with remote 'allocated' spaces or having to rely on on-street parking. No chance in charging their EV at home but will be forced into buying one if their ageing ICE car cannot be reasonably kept going (mine will be 24 years old by 2030).
2. Most workplaces have either no car park or whatever they do have is normally only for about 5-50% of the staff. The rest have to park, as above, mostly on the street or in pay car parks.
3. Most car parks or housing development allocated space car parks have little to no room to install charging points, and most do not have the funds to do so.
Even where adding points is physically possible, doing so gradually is also very costly due to either expensive up-front costs (which may be unaffordable in the short term of need to be financed by [expensive] loans over the long term) because of the need to install new underground cabling for future charging points or having to dig up and modify the previous year's cable mods, which is inefficient.
Most firms lease their property, and thus the car park is not owned by them and you'd need laws to push owners to install them.
4. Charging stations - the equivalent of ICE filling stations, would need to have ultra-rapid chargers (i.e. charging take the same time as the 5 mins to fill up and pay for an ICE car) to be viable. That tech is still some years away, and the 'rapid' chargers are still about 3x as slow as filling up with fuel and they cost a lot to install to take into account the slower recharging time (extra points needed = extra land).
5. Most people in the categories that have no home or work charger would likely - as now with their ICE cars - want to charge on the way to and most likely from work or when shopping on the weekend. This would concentrate demand, as would those with slow-speed (relatively) home chargers doing so in the evening/overnight when they return home.
This would add a considerable electrical grid load to an system already teetering on the brink at peak times around 6-8pm because of the change to non-base load 'green' generating tech and the phasing out of end-of-life nuclear power stations without sufficient new capacity of the same type to take its place.
There will be, at best, a period of at least 10 years with electricity demand rising for many reasons whilst generating capacity, especially base load for winter, either staying constant or dropping.
I'm amazed at how politicians of all hues in the 'mainstream' are contemplating both the rapid phase out of ICE vehicles, gas boilers and other fossil fuel tech whilst replacement tech is not always an affordable, practical or viable dalternative and where electricity generating capacity, especially base load, is far from being assured to cope with this extra demand.
When both policy avenues will cost an absolute fortune, all the while they all advocate for more Pandemic spending, shutdowns and restrictions on business that will obviously reduce our ability to pay or do all these things (much of the western world is well on the way to stagflation and bankrupcy) - when much fo what they are doing now is already pushing electricity prices up way faster than normal inflation rates.
Contrary to 'common' belief, the world won't end in 2040 if we don't all change to EVs.
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Contrary to 'common' belief, the world won't end in 2040 if we don't all change to EVs.
And by then Global warming may well start reversing and go back to normal, but I suspect I will get told I`m wrong but I cannot see into the future or know whats going to happen like some that think the worst
whatever happens, it will, regardless of what anyone does or thinks.....
but then another form of fuel/ power, may come along and all our electrical problems may disappear, you never know, here's looking forward to the future :-)
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And by then Global warming may well start reversing and go back to normal, but I suspect I will get told I`m wrong but I cannot see into the future or know whats going to happen like some that think the worst
whatever happens, it will, regardless of what anyone does or thinks.....
Sticking your head in the sand won't make a difference that's for sure.
I despair that there are people that still don't think humans are having an affect on the climate.
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<< Sticking your head in the sand won't make a difference that's for sure. I despair that there are people that still don't think humans are having an affect on the climate. >>
Those people prefer not to believe ideas they don't like. Some of them even invent very unlikely alternatives because there is less to worry about.
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You are free to believe that oil and gas are the only feasible solutions for the foreseeable future. Personally I think you are wrong.
The current government has implemented policies to largely eliminate carbon fuels, banning ICE and gas boliers. No party (AFAIK) is comtemplating reversing those policies.
By 2040 ~25m of the ~30m vehicles on the road will be electric. Remaining ICE will be 10-25 years old. Petrol stations will be more difficult to find. Towns and cities will adopt clean air zones. ICE spares will be increasingly difficut to source.
EVs will be available at "normal" prices on the s/h market. Autonomous cars are likely to become a reality. Your car (transport) will be summoned by smartphone app, and when the journey is complete go off an charge itself.
If not, basic market pressures (profit motive) will ensure carparks, hotels, shops, offices, domestic premises will increasingly have charging facilities.
It will cost money to make this happen - spending may stimulate the economy, not damage it. The main issue is what is sacrificed to make it happen - we can't spend the same pot of money twice (despite what politicians of all shades would have us believe).
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You are free to believe that oil and gas are the only feasible solutions for the foreseeable future.
Won`t be available if it runs out anyway, but we need alternative ways to generate electricity so we don`t have to rely on wind and solar, though oil will still be needed for other materials so its not as though it won`t be needed
Hydrogen as I have said before may well replace what gas we use now and as part of the gas supply percentage has been Hydrogen in the past won`t be a problem for our pipes so boilers can still run once converted, and maybe used for running engines which I still think think will happen in time, so no I do not believe oil and gas will last as it was said years ago it will run out fairly quickly...
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Hydrogen as I have said before may well replace what gas we use now and as part of the gas supply percentage has been Hydrogen in the past won`t be a problem for our pipes so boilers can still run once converted, and maybe used for running engines which I still think think will happen in time,
Unfortunately, unlike petroleum-based fuels, hydrogen does not occur naturally (except in the sun) and needs some other energy source for its production. At the moment most of it seems to be a by-product of the refineries. For a long time a small amount came from the electrolysis of brine by the company I used to work for. That was piped a few miles away and used to harden oils for margarine.
So to convert to H2 on a large scale will depend on your wind, solar, nuclear or whatever, first.
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"I thought Tesla were going to let other cars use the charging network?"
I would be very surprised of they did that, it would undermine their biggest USP. Imagine how annoyed a Tesla driver would be if they couldn't charge up as there was another make using the charger. Maybe they will only have a few that can be shared.
They are being forced into it by governments in the US and the EU and and here as well...they make out like that they always wanted to do it but am pretty sure they would not if they didn't have to.
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They are being forced into it by governments in the US and the EU and and here as well...they make out like that they always wanted to do it but am pretty sure they would not if they didn't have to.
The soon to happen change in the leadership of the Conservative Party is likely to see a reversal of policy: especially after Lord Frost's resignation
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They are being forced into it by governments in the US and the EU and and here as well...they make out like that they always wanted to do it but am pretty sure they would not if they didn't have to.
The soon to happen change in the leadership of the Conservative Party is likely to see a reversal of policy: especially after Lord Frost's resignation
So in your view in the (unlikely) event of an imminent change of Tory leader the new one will have not forcing Tesla to widen the use of its charging network high up on their list of things to do?
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