Death knell for diesel

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 12:43
Death knell for diesel - Bilboman

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/27/german-court-r.../
The writing seems to be on the wall. This decision only affects older diesel cars but it will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect on the new/second hand diesel car market in Germany, throughout Europe and further afield.
I predict a shocking dystopian scenario of millions of older diesel cars being shipped off to other continents while Europe surely but certainly moves back to petrol and gradually switches over to hybrid/electric/hydrogen cell over the next 20/30/... years.
Just as smoking has been all but banned in the west, and tobacco manufacturers have shifted their products and hte associated marketing budgets to "developing" markets, the clouds of filthy smoke will soon be departing Europe and heading to more "welcoming" climes.

Edited by Bilboman on 27/02/2018 at 12:46

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 14:17
Death knell for diesel - madf


Just as smoking has been all but banned in the west, and tobacco manufacturers have shifted their products and hte associated marketing budgets to "developing" markets, the clouds of filthy smoke will soon be departing Europe and heading to more "welcoming" climes.

34Billion cigarettes were sold in UK in 2014... a big drop from prior levels but still an average of over 500 cigarettes per UK inhabitant - or 10 a week!!!

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 23:28
Death knell for diesel - sandy56

More distortion and propaganda than facts.

Diesel will be with us for some years yet for a number of reasons.

There is huge manufacturing capacity for car manufacturers for diesel, particulalry German ones, and they will protect their industry. There is still not a huge market for electric only cars in the world, and little production capacity.

Check out the numbers. Only about ~3% of UK cars are electric. UK new car market 2.5 million in 2017. Total cars in UK approx 30 million.

We do not have the energy infastructure to charge 30 million electric cars overnight, no country does.

We have a ways to go for any major change.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 15:23
Death knell for diesel - Andrew-T

Just as smoking has been all but banned in the west, and tobacco manufacturers have shifted their products and hte associated marketing budgets to "developing" markets, the clouds of filthy smoke will soon be departing Europe and heading to more "welcoming" climes.

Actually I think the 'clouds of filthy smoke' are far less common than they were, despite a larger proportion of diesel cars. Time was when almost any diesel car trying to accelerate up a hill might disappear in a smoke screen. Now that hardly ever happens.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 15:37
Death knell for diesel - pd

Haven't they been doing this for years anyway?

They stopped non-EU4 DPF equipped cars entering most cities as long ago as 2010 so this just seems to be shifting the goal posts a bit.

That's what all the green / yellow / red stickers are on the windscreens of German cars.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 16:31
Death knell for diesel - daveyK_UK

There is one big problem - 99% of commerical vehciels are diesel

yes you can buy some small vans in petrol form, but this is a very small number.

The only medium size van available in petrol form is the very expensive (not sure why? the badge/image?) VW transporter

You cant buy a large van in petrol form

As someone who desires to purchase a medium/large van for less than 10,000 miles a year, there is no alternative other than diesel

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 17:03
Death knell for diesel - RT

The SMMT has noted that car CO2 ouput rose last year, for the first time, as a direct result of the switch from diesel to petrol - also aided by the change in VED so private buyers pay £140 regardless of engine capacity, encouraging larger engines.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 18:06
Death knell for diesel - daveyjp
Whose packet of fags did they borrow to work that calculation and conclusion out?

Car sales are tanking, they don’t care if we buy petrol, diesel or electric, they just want more sales.
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Fri 2 Mar 2018 14:47
Death knell for diesel - Bromptonaut

The SMMT has noted that car CO2 ouput rose last year, for the first time, as a direct result of the switch from diesel to petrol - also aided by the change in VED so private buyers pay £140 regardless of engine capacity, encouraging larger engines.

Trouble is we're trying to square a circle. After sucessfully eliminating lead from petrol the next targets were sulphur and nitrogen oxides, CO2 and particulates. The sulphur issue was largely dealt with by low sulphur fuel. CO2 was next up as motor industry convinced governments that particle filters and urea catalysts would deal with particulates and NOx.

We've now discovered that real world diesels kick out NOx in life threatening quantity even with ctalysts. Yes, other things create NOx too but private cars in inner cities significant and, in terms of effect on wider society, came at little cost - unlike trucks deleivering food etc.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 17:01
Death knell for diesel - barney100

Will we have petrol lorries, petrol electric trains, petrol tractors, ships with petrol engines etc etc?...nope it will be Joe Bloggs again who has to tow the line.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 21:46
Death knell for diesel - Miniman777

Trains are going down the hydrogen route with one expected in the UK on test by 2020 and a battery train (with a charger at each end if needed) is expected to be trialled in passenger service between Bedford and Bletchley later in the year.

Petrol electric? Very unlikely.

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Tue 27 Feb 2018 22:02
Death knell for diesel - Ethan Edwards

Right Barney if our cars were powered by Unicorn droppings Government would find a expert to demonize them and impose hefty taxes. They need the money to give to Jeehardlies etc.

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Wed 28 Feb 2018 19:58
Death knell for diesel - coopshere
The writing has been on the wall for passenger cars for a couple of years now. Anyone who thinks otherwise has had their head in the sand. Porsche (part of VAG) have just announced they will no longer use Diesel engines. Toyota has stopped producing their own too. With all enlightened regulators now seeing the light a ban on Diesel engined passenger cars in European cities is going to be sooner rather than later.

Of course large commercial vehicles will have to remain diesel for the foreseeable future because of the power needed to haul them along and there being no alternative at the moment. That certainly doesn’t apply to cars though.

The down turn in diesel sales is largely down to fleet buyers not replacing their fleet so soon as they can see that the public is turning away from them which means the residual values are lower. More and more private punters are turning away from the nearly new diesel car.
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Wed 28 Feb 2018 20:10
Death knell for diesel - gordonbennet

Going to be some used Diesel bargains to be had, probably cheap enough to warrant the cost to keep the better ones in good fettle.

Being charged to enter cities is music to the ears of many of us, the perfect excuse never to have to go anywhere near hell again.

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Thu 1 Mar 2018 14:44
Death knell for diesel - Bilboman

I can't help thinking that the less well-maintained diesel cars will end up in developing countries owing to inevitable market forces. Cars from Japan are exported to NZ and Australia and other RHD markets once they cannot pass the Shaken test. Thousands of second hand cars in Britain were snapped up by drivers from new EU accession countries and exported (despite RHD layout) to countries with a very small and expensive second hand market.

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 11:16
Death knell for diesel - Steveieb
The Eastern Europeans living in this country seem to be so savvy when it comes to picking bargain cars. Mostly old diesels.
You can often see them driving VW Audi 1.9 Tdi Pds and BMW 5 series diesels dating back to the early 2000 s.

When I look at other drivers who have the same Audi A 4 B5 as me they tend to be non UK born. In fact I am often stopped by them and asked if I want to sell.

They seem to be cherry picking the best , mostly German cars which have been foolishly discarded by us and speaking to them they are very aware of the potential problems awaiting the owners of the newer cars.
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Fri 2 Mar 2018 11:35
Death knell for diesel - Bolt
The Eastern Europeans living in this country seem to be so savvy when it comes to picking bargain cars. Mostly old diesels. You can often see them driving VW Audi 1.9 Tdi Pds and BMW 5 series diesels dating back to the early 2000 s. When I look at other drivers who have the same Audi A 4 B5 as me they tend to be non UK born. In fact I am often stopped by them and asked if I want to sell. They seem to be cherry picking the best , mostly German cars which have been foolishly discarded by us and speaking to them they are very aware of the potential problems awaiting the owners of the newer cars.

Some of them seem to be the ones that neglect servicing as well, the times I have seen these cars that smoke to high heaven makes you think they are only interested how the car looks, the fact it pours out black/blue smoke is never sorted out.

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 12:05
Death knell for diesel - oldroverboy.
The Eastern Europeans living in this country seem to be so savvy when it comes to picking bargain cars. Mostly old diesels. You can often see them driving VW Audi 1.9 Tdi Pds and BMW 5 series diesels dating back to the early 2000 s. When I look at other drivers who have the same Audi A 4 B5 as me they tend to be non UK born. In fact I am often stopped by them and asked if I want to sell. They seem to be cherry picking the best , mostly German cars which have been foolishly discarded by us and speaking to them they are very aware of the potential problems awaiting the owners of the newer cars.

Some of them seem to be the ones that neglect servicing as well, the times I have seen these cars that smoke to high heaven makes you think they are only interested how the car looks, the fact it pours out black/blue smoke is never sorted out.

If they are here and uk registered, they are going to fail the new MOT smoke test.. (NO SMOKE AT ALL) coming soon to a test staion near you.!

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 14:07
Death knell for diesel - Steveieb
Interesting old rover boy. Wonder how the buses and lorries will cope ?

Can you post a link with the details please ?
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Fri 2 Mar 2018 14:25
Death knell for diesel - Bolt
Interesting old rover boy. Wonder how the buses and lorries will cope ? Can you post a link with the details please ?

I think its on this site about new MOT regs

Buses are being changed for hybrid around my area, I`ve passed several today

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 15:10
Death knell for diesel - oldroverboy.

www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/legal-motoring-advice/20.../

From 20 May, any Euro5 diesel that emits visible smoke of any colour will automatically fail the MoT in 2018. Diesel particulate filters (commonly known as DPFs) will also face mandatory checks, with failures being issued if the tester finds evidence of removal or being tampered with.

Edited by oldroverboy. on 02/03/2018 at 15:11

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 15:25
Death knell for diesel - RT

www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/legal-motoring-advice/20.../

From 20 May, any Euro5 diesel that emits visible smoke of any colour will automatically fail the MoT in 2018. Diesel particulate filters (commonly known as DPFs) will also face mandatory checks, with failures being issued if the tester finds evidence of removal or being tampered with.

So NOT older diesels then - only Euro 5/6, all of which are DPF-equipped..

In reality an unmodified, properly maintained car will have no difficulties with the MoT test changes

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Fri 2 Mar 2018 15:17
Death knell for diesel - RobJP
The Eastern Europeans living in this country seem to be so savvy when it comes to picking bargain cars. Mostly old diesels. You can often see them driving VW Audi 1.9 Tdi Pds and BMW 5 series diesels dating back to the early 2000 s. When I look at other drivers who have the same Audi A 4 B5 as me they tend to be non UK born. In fact I am often stopped by them and asked if I want to sell. They seem to be cherry picking the best , mostly German cars which have been foolishly discarded by us and speaking to them they are very aware of the potential problems awaiting the owners of the newer cars.

It should be noted that the old pre-DPF diesels are NOT affected by the new MOT rules regarding 'any visible smoke'.

The new rules are specifically put in to place to stop people removing/'gutting' DPFs on cars where the DPF is supposed to be present.

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