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Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - badbusdriver

Current fixed deal set to end in Dec, but I got an email from the broker who arranged initial mortgage deal and most recent one. I was expecting to have a bit of a jump from current 2.79%, but the ones offered by current provider (NatWest) seem higher than they should be (according to Martin Lewis, who says should be 5-5.5% on average at the moment) ranging from 5.54% (5 year, £995 product fees) to 6.24% (2 year, no product fees).

Went on Money Supermarket and offered 4.59% on a 2 year deal (Chorley Building Society) with £995 product fee (which can be incorporated into payments, adds about £7 per month)

While always tempting to just stay with current provider for convenience, I'm thinking of changing. But also wondering about whether a longer fixed term of 5 years would be better. As far as I have been able to find out, rates are predicted to fall and stabilise at 3-3.5% in 2025. So maybe the 2 year deal better with the assumption that the next one will be closer to my current rates?

Any thoughts? (and no, I won't hold you responsible!)

Edited by badbusdriver on 04/07/2023 at 10:32

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - Adampr

I remortgaged a couple of months ago and took a five year fix. In my case, I just want to know much I'll be paying and I am fortunate enough to be able to cover it. If I could take a rate fixed from now until retirement I'd be tempted.

As for advice, well everyone has been wrong about everything for the last year, so I'm not sure much useful can be offered. I think we're heading for a worsening economy so I would hold off until November and look then. I think we're having a peak right now and they will level out again. That won't mean a drop in interest rates, but longer term fixed rates will probably become cheaper.

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - Terry W

Basic market theory suggests the current rate for any given term reflects the market consensus of what the rate will be. You can second guess the market but you almost certainly have less expertise than they to judge what will happen.

More important is your attitude towards risk and money.

Longer term deals give certainty but generally cost more in monthly repayments - much depends on personal circumstances (job, income, other commitments).

In particular - is the cost of certainty affordable. Simplistic assumption - £100k mortgage:

  • a two year deal at 4.5% will cost £375 interest per month
  • a five year deal at 6.0% will cost £500 interest per month
  • if after 2 years the rate is still below 6% - all is well
  • if after 2 years the rate were to be up to 8% (£667pm) could you afford it

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - Bromptonaut

Difficult to be sure where rates will go but I'd expect the concensus to be that they'll peak later this year and then ease back but not to anything like they were pre Ukraine etc.

Lucky enough to be mortgage free now but I worry for my kids, well at least my son, when current deals expire.

A lot of people fixed before 2007/8 and were paying way over the odds. Of three of us in the office discussing it one went fixed. The other two, me included, were on trackers at BoE rate and a bit.

We did well.

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - sammy1

Whatever you decide my advice is to overpay each month if you can possible afford it. Whatever happens to rates if you can shorten the term you will be quiids in when you pay off early.. Property seems to be overpriced in many areas at the moment I hope we never go back to negative equity. Having too much cash in savings is money down the drain compared to mortgage rates some thing the gov is waking up to when it suits them. There must be an election looming as they waking up on many things, Millions are in debt for everything the main things being house and car. If rates go any higher it is really going to hurt some.

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - daveyjp

Offers are valid for up to 6 months so no problem getting an offer now and keeping an eye on what happens. If no improvement take the offer, if things change decline it and chose an alternative.

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - badbusdriver

Thanks for the responses, though I'm not really any closer to deciding what my best course of action is!.

I suppose I can take some comfort in the fact that as my house wasn't that expensive (your simplistic assumption example was pretty close Terry!) being both in need of work, and in an area where prices aren't that high anyway. My payments going up by around 25% (for the 5 year fixed NatWest deal) will be felt, but I can manage. Just means some of the long list of jobs needed doing on the house will have to be pushed back.

Also, for several years prior to buying this place, we lived in three privately rented properties which ranged from about £70 to £200 per month more than the 5 year fixed deal mentioned above.

Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - Metropolis.
Personally I would go for a 5 year fixed, things could get even worse than Ukraine if China invades Taiwan.
Mortgage deals, two years or longer? - movilogo

The link between inflation and interest is now kind of broken. In spite of BoE raising rates over & over again lately, the inflation didn't go down that much.

The current prediction is rate may rise up to 6% (or 7% if pessimistic) and after that it will fall.

Be aware of Early Repayment Charges in case you want to offload the house soon.

May be 2-3 years fix will give you most flexibility as rate will surely fall after 2 years.