The two you've suggested would be a decent choice. Also Kia Sportage, Hyundai Tucson, Suzuki Vitara or Ssangyong Korando. A Skoda Yeti would be a slightly left field option.

Manual, probably 5-8k a year, would be 40% motorway. Thanks

Given your low mileage, go with petrol-engined cars. Yes, you'll get 20-30% less mpg, but the chances of buying a diesel-engined example that is in good nick and has been driven sympathetically (i.e. not mostly short trips from cold) to keep the DPF etc in good order is rather a lottery unless you personally know the previous owner well.

Getting one from a main dealer won't guarantee reliability either, and in many cases, for older cars, people often offload them as problems arise in PX for a new(er) car.

At least for the time being, the significant bump in mpg for diesels is offset to a reasonable degree by the price at the pumps (about 15%, historically nearer 5-10%), plus you could be landed with a very big bill for repairs on a modern diesel if you're unlucky, whereas with petrols the chances are far lower.

Not sure wherther budget covers you for 8-9yo cars, it might depend on specs (engine, trim level, etc), especially with prices still high (about 30% above the historical norm) at the moment.

Whether they come down is really dependent on the logistics problems associated with parts going away (gradual process to recover from the pandemic reponse) and if, when and how hard the (likely) recession will hit us.

I'd go for a lower-mid spec car (the lowest spec and engine performance you can tollerate) to keep the spend down, the chances of reliability problems down (less to go wrong) and running costs reasonable (normally higher profile, narrower tyres and smaller alloys which last longer, less susceptible to damage and are cheaper to replace). They also give a smoother ride, though for some cars (ones with lesser inate handling capabilities) may not be so nice to drive round the corners, but better over the bumps and potholes.

Good idea to get a long test drive, after you're satisafied it meets your other needs and you've got the seating (driving position) as comforatble as possible. If you do a search on the forum, you'll see that some other members here have tried out some of those cars mentioned, some like them, some not so much, including a former moderator who swapped out two or three in quick succession.