Ironically, with the deal, Japanese car firms have no incentive to produce cars in the EU any more to get round the import rules. Whilst they are better at setting up factories and instilling a decent work ethic in staff (e.g. comparing those in Nissan's, Honda's and Toyota's UK plants with those current and former ones for EU/US brands), they still aren't quite up to Japanese/Korean standards, and, of course employ home workers which helps the economy. There's little difference in the cost of shipping parts and shipping cars.
Apart from Kia/Hyundai, sales of the major Japanese car manufacturers has seen a steady decline over the last 20 years, not helped by incomplete range lineups and poorly thought-ou/styled cars that don't appeal to the more style-conscious European public. IMHO Mazda bodged up on their diesels and don't have any sportier engines in their EU range (they do in North America and Down Under) as well as limited their ranges/sub-models, until the new Corolla (the GT86 is never going to be a mainstream car, nor is the new Supra, and neither are made by them anyway), Toyotas?Lexuses aren't what you'd call 'drivers cars' as well, and Hondas (as well as being an incomplete range) boring and very expensive.
Very few younger people are filling the gaps in the OAP market as, well, those people pass away. Young people want nippy/quick and stylish cars that handle well. And well, that isn't Japanese - only Mazda are in a position to turn things around in a reasonable amount of time, but ONLY if their new generation diesels are reliable and the SCCI engine is too and delivers on its promises for extra mpg and power and can quickly replace the dull-but-worthy current N/A Skyactiv-G engines. We''l have to wait until the back end of the year (when the new Mazda3 gets that engine) and beyond (mpg and reliability in the real world) to find out.
Toyota/Lexus could also do so if they take the significant improvements from the new Corolla and quickly apply them across the board as each car gets revamped - but as we see from their (same platform?) SUVs etc, they still are very much more miss than hit on the styling and driver experience. I think they and Honda have only kept a reasonable market share because of their reliability and decent dealer networks (which plays well with the older, more conservative driver - the odd styling doesn't).
Subaru are back down to their pre-WRX days with little for the average (nonrural/farmer) driver to look to (not helped by them being expensive to buy and run, even the standard cars), Mitsubishi are slowly going the same way and anyway are now essentially part of Renault-Nissan (hardly a boon for reliability), Suzuki don't really have much of a mainstream foothold in Europe except for motobikes. Infinity is just a fancy Nissan with complex Renault and Mercedes bits and sell next to no cars in the EU anyway.
I bet KIA/Hyundai are laughing their heads off at all this. Kudos to them for making the best of a below par world (and especially EU) market - they haven't got everything right, but have made far better business and engineering/design choices than most makes from that part of the world. Give them another 10 years and I could easily see them surpass (for a long time) Toyota's sales in the EU and even beyond.
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