2030: last orders for petrol and diesel cars and vans
Britain has legislated itself into a corner. 2020's ZEV mandate came into force in January 2024, effectively banning the sales of all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035, and mass produced non-hybrid models by 2030. Yet the needed infrastructure simply isn't here – if the cars can't be charged, the drivers won't change cars.
- Petrol and diesel sales to end by 2030, hybrid by 2035
- Some countries are backing away from similar deadlines
- Over 50% of new car sales must be electric after 2028
It's the end of the world as we know it. REM's eponymous hit charted at a time when environmentalism was the trendy subject for individuals and businesses, and new car sales were largely made up of relatively small, light and efficient models with very little control over what came out of the exhaust pipe.
The world didn't end, but humans didn't change. Consumption and new car sales boomed, the planet warmed, and governments finally took the problem seriously. Well, a bit. Global accords resulted a general aim to achieve 'Net Zero' by 2050.
The upshot of that is a plan to end the sale of fossil-fuelled cars and vans. Britain has elected a tighter deadline than some nations – 2030, though the cut-off date for all new vehicles to produce zero emissions is 2035. Hence the confusion.
As always in politics, it's a case of saying what the public wants to hear around a policy that will be unpopular with many voters.
What is net zero, in climate terms?
Net zero is the aim to balance emissions, and green initiatives with no additional CO2 added to the atmosphere, so that global warming does not progress beyond 1.5 degrees C.
Most of the activity on this front is in wider industry and infrastructure, but transport is a substantial sector and contributor of greenhouse gases.
It is also a substantial contributor of money in local, national and global economies. Juggling taxation based on a fossil fuel economy with legislation and initiatives to end dependence on fossil fuels is destabilising even if every country were united.
The race to cut tailpipe emissions is already on
Most countries covered by the agreement have a long-term plan to move to all new vehicles sold being ZEVs, or zero emission vehicles, by 2035.
Norway has all but achieved this goal already, with 90% of new car sales being electric by the end of 2024. That's without banning anything, but with a largely wealthy population of just 5.5 million, punitive taxes on CO2 emissions from cars, and a significant head start on sustainable energy and electric infrastructure.
Britain has some way to go, but it's not the drivers and new car buyers to blame for the rate of EV adoption – if anything, the latest EVs are exceptional value and extremely capable and refined. There must be something else putting people off.
What is the current plan for new car and van sales in the UK?
Despite successive governments and announcements, the plan remains much the same as it did in 2020.
- Sales of new petrol or diesel only cars to end by 2030
- A five year transition towards zero-emission vehicles (with current technology, electric)
- Sales of all vehicles that emit pollution from the tailpipe to end by 2035
The legislation that effectively bans the sale of new combustion engine vehicles by 2030 has been presented differently by successive Prime Ministers. A combination of factors – mostly around EV infrastructure – encouraged the outgoing Conservative government to claim they had pushed that back to 2035 during election campaigns, but the legislation for the 2030 deadline was already in force.
The Labour government has since 'restored' the 2030 deadline. It's a way of showing a commitment to either solving the big problem of global warming, or empathising with voters who are rightly worried about their transport choices in the future.
Yet in every public statement since 2020, 2030 has been the cut-off date for sales of purely petrol or diesel powered new cars and vans. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids will still be allowed, with tighter CO2 targets each year. By 2035, all new vehicle sales/registrations need to be zero-emission vehicles.
Banning engines isn't the motivation, and neither is the type of fuel they use.
The real aim of the legislation is to ensure new vehicles in the UK don't produce pollution when used. If someone makes a petrol-powered car that emits zero CO2 or NOx at the tailpipe, they can sell it. With current technology and cars on the market the only option is electric vehicles.
The 2035 plan for 100% of new car sales to be ZEVs remains unchanged
The ban most people are worried about, the one that will force their next new car purchase to be electric, is in 2035. It always has been, since the legislation was first proposed and schemes to support manufacturers and dealers in the transition became legislation.
Car and van buyers may find availability of new non-electric vehicles is a problem far sooner. 2028 marks the point when 52% of new car sales must be zero-emission vehicles to comply. Targets have been increasing every year, yet British buyers increased the share of pure petrol cars bought in 2024. Electric van sales should account for 58% of new registrations in 2029, yet electric van market share remained below 6% of new registrations in 2023 and 2024.
And until 2030, the vehicles can be sold, can be registered, but each one will cost the manufacturer more in penalties. Without infrastructure and capacity to allow these vehicles to charge either the new vehicle market is going to collapse, or car and van prices are going to rise yet again.
What is new for 2025 is another consultation. You can provide your experience and views around plug-in hybrid range, emissions and economy calculations. The document also explains the challenges manufacturers and dealers face and the complexity of the market. If nothing else, you might have some sympathy when wondering why a specific model or engine has disappeared from the range in coming years.
Have your say on the ZEV mandate for 2030-2035
There is now a new ZEV mandate consultation (open for responses until 18 February 2025) which proposes reinstating the 2030 ban on sales of petrol and cars, while retaining the 2035 deadline for all new vehicle registrations to be zero-emission vehicles.
Progress towards the 2030 deadline is already underway. The current target of 80% of new cars, and 70% of new vans, to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030 comes into force across the UK for 2025. The shifting of dates over the next five years is focused on two concerns for car buyers and environmentalists:
- An outright ban on petrol and diesel cars in 2030, including hybrids, or allowing hybrids to continue until 2035.
This includes the definition of what a hybrid car is for these purposes, and a threshold of zero-emission range for plug-in hybrids to achieve. - Acceptable levels of CO2 emissions within that framework for new car sales until the cutoff.
You can express your opinions and influences across 17 questions. Most focus on what manufacturers should be allowed to do to meet targets within the VETS (for cars and vans) and how the emissions targets are measured and tightened.
Where a difference may be made by feedback is in the interpretation of the UF, or 'utility factor' for plug-in hybrid cars. At the moment it looks like mild-hybrid models will be excluded from 2031 on – but real-world figures suggest they're as economical and clean as many PHEVs if drivers don't plug in.
The UF is how those wild three-figure MPG figures or '16g/km CO2 from a Range Rover P550e' figures are derived for PHEVs. They assume a proportion of the WLTP test cycle is performed with zero emissions or consumption.
Most drivers don't appear to charge their PHEVs regularly. But even taking advantage of charging as often as possible and a month of short, EV-only drives, our long-term test Volvo V90 Recharge achieved 82mpg. Less than a quarter of its claimed 353mpg.
Multiply the 18g/km CO2 by that ratio and you get 77g/km. Still impressive for the car in question – but not the win in average fleet economy terms that's needed by manufacturers.
Four prime ministers, two parties, one date
The headline isn't referring to Boris Johnson's lockdown activities. His parliament is responsible for the ambitious roadmap to zero emissions though, in part.
While the EU's legislation involved the UK before Brexit, the UK did not step back from reasonable measures to curb greenhouse gases. In 2017 the Conservative government under Theresa May announced a proposed ban on new petrol and diesel car sales by 2040.
In 2020, Boris Johnson's government revised those targets to 2030. This scheme is faster than many countries, but the UK has a rapid turnover of vehicles and would see benefits sooner. In 2023 Rishi Sunak announced the ban would be pushed back to 2035, but it was the same policy presented differently.
At the end of 2024, a new Labour government announced the reinstatement of the 2030 ban. You'll be surprised to learn that once again, it's the same plan and what is underway is refinements of the legal process the manufacturers are following.
For the sake of brevity and clicks, the phrase 'petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2030' dominated most headlines. That's a little misleading and implies existing vehicles would not be allowed on the roads.
Even if drivers and infrastructure could cope, based on SMMT data and the age of vehicles in use in Britain (a total of 41.5 million in 2023), two-thirds of vehicles sold in 2029 will still be in use by 2042, and a third of those will be in use beyond that.
Is it any wonder Britain's drivers are confused? Yet, based on vehicle lifespan and usage patterns, 2030 is a reasonable deadline if you want to phase out mass consumption of fossil fuels for road transport by 2050.
How will cars and vans meet the 2030 ban?
Manufacturers and dealers are approaching the targets carefully with detailed adjustments to model ranges and available engines. Expect low stock levels with few discounts and incentives – unless you're buying electric vehicles.
Partnerships and compromises in specification in an attempt to let production reach natural ends in cycle will become frequent – while encouraging greater sales of EVs will be universal.
VETS - emissions trading and EV advantages
To meet emissions targets and not force a sudden cutoff, car sales in the UK are tracked and balanced under a programme called VETS, or 'Vehicle emissions trading schemes'. One aspect is an annual decrease in the percentage of non-zero-emissions vehicles allowed to be registered in the year.
The other is the overall fleet average CO2 g/km rating for non-zero emission vehicles, which also reduces annually but also can be reduced further for a manufacturer if they fail to meet targets.
Selling more zero-emission vehicles can either allow more non-zero emissions vehicles to be registered or the credit can be converted into higher fleet average CO2 allowances.
The more EVs a manufacturer sells, the more petrol and diesel vehicles can be sold without penalty.
The table below shows the registration targets for UK car and van sales before 2031 and the five-year transition to 100% zero-emission vehicle sales. From 2031 only hybrid and plug-in hybrid models are likely to be offered as alternatives to electric vehicles until 2035.
| Year | Electric car sales | ICE car sales | Electric van sales | ICE van sales |
| 2025 | 28% | 72% | 16% | 84% |
| 2026 | 33% | 67% | 24% | 76% |
| 2027 | 38% | 62% | 34% | 66% |
| 2028 | 52% | 48% | 46% | 54% |
| 2029 | 66% | 34% | 58% | 42% |
| 2030 | 80% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
The trading aspect goes beyond single manufacturers, however. The credits for cars and vans under either registration, or CO2 targets, can be bought and sold between manufacturers, or banked for future use.
This means electric-only firms such as Tesla get a very valuable asset when they achieve volume sales – one that also means they can influence the number of non-electric cars available by increasing the pool of non-ZEV registrations allowed overall.
Other changes are coming though – and it's highly likely we'll see a big reduction in the availability of powerful, large plug-in hybrid SUVs after 2027. That's because the real-world data used alongside WLTP testing for emissions reveals that people just don't plug them in enough, so the CO2 advantage they have will be taken away. That will negatively impact fleet CO2 levels significantly.
If you want that Mazda CX60 PHEV or Range Rover P550e, get your order in soon.
Small manufacturers can carry on – for now
The scheme to phase out tailpipe emissions between 2030 and 2035 is designed to alleviate pressure on buyers and on large motor manufacturers who need many years to plan their model cycles and recover investment.
- Micro Manufacturers < 1000 vehicles registered annually
- Low Volume manufacturers <2500 vehicles registered annually
- Kit cars are produced for home builders to finish, often using secondhand parts
Obvious examples of small volume manufacturers would be Caterham, Ariel, Morgan and Lotus. There are many more. To put the threat to enthusiast cars in perspective, just 68 new Caterhams were registered in 2024, and since 2001 the highest annual volume has not exceed 300. Ariel's figures are similar. Even Lotus, with a new electric SUV to offer and refreshed, striking sports cars, sold far fewer than 1000 vehicles.
Brands which are part of a wider group but operate their own exclusive design and manufacturing facilities may operate under low volume rules. This means DS and Abarth won't be getting away that easily. Alpine however could theoretically move A110 production (and design) to the F1 site in Enstone and continue to sell it under a new brand, distinct from the Alpine A290.
Micro-manufacturing, kit-cars and specialists
You should also be able to register new kit cars with petrol or diesel power up to 2035, and for kits that use the identity of a donor vehicle there appear to be no plans to ban registration. There have been cases of restomod EVs being denied their original ID due to simple diversion from the original construction.
As such any modifications have to be very carefully planned with the only clarity being if it's likely to receive a Q-plate, it probably won't be approved after 2035 unless it is zero-emissions.
Any converter or manufacturer who uses individual vehicle approval has an extra five years to adapt to zero-emission powertrains. It may not be enough time for some.
Why Britain needs tough action – and why investment is key
A ban on consumer choice is never going to make for goodwill, even when it's for the greater good. We want our proper sugar in sweets and soft drinks, we want our food to be salty so it tastes good (or at least familiar), and some of us probably still want to smoke.
But those are nothing compared to undoing Britain's reliance on cars and fossil fuel.
Norway chose electric, why can't Britain?
Taking Norway's 90% zero-emissions vehicle sales as a 'best-case' scenario, for years the oil revenues received by the country have been saved as protection against the end of fossil fuel demand. Some of those funds have been invested in sustainable electricity generation and infrastructure.
Norwegians pay a lot of tax personally, but they enjoy services and subsidies funded by corporations and a good standard of living. There are lots of Norwegian car enthusiasts and plenty of petrolheads. But new car sales have been biased towards EVs since the first, short-range, urban runabouts whirred onto the streets.
Cars like the G-Wiz and Th!nk were laughed at here – for Norwegians, choosing a light and simple zero-emissions vehicle for short trips is just common sense.
What has worked for Norway that Britain could have done?
- Britain is still building houses without parking or sustainable energy
- Charging networks and public parking have not been given suitable investment
- Sustainable car use is less of a priority than economic activity
In a word, infrastructure.
British drivers aren't afraid to drive electric cars – new sales are already at one in five vehicles being EVs, though vans are lagging behind. With so many vehicles on the road, so many users, and a high proportion of multi-car households with reliance on on-street parking, there simply isn't the charging infrastructure to let everyone have an electric car.
It's highly unlikely that such infrastructure will exist by 2030, or even 2050. The demand on the national grid is already a limiting factor for commercial operators, so clever solutions such as off-grid microgenerators, communal parking and charging stations are going to be needed.
House builders and town planners are not making this investment to future-proof or plan ahead. Even now, new build properties targeted at commuters tend to have one parking space, limited street parking, and reliance on the grid for energy supply.
Private enterprise has a role to play as well as government and local authorities. The artists impression of solar-panel sheltered car parks, accessible park and ride, and charging with your weekly shop is as fantastical as a '60s sci-fi paperback cover of flying cars on Mars.
For many EV owners, life outside of large cities looks more like a 700-space supermarket car park with four slow charge points, two of which have old diesel cars in because they're nearer the shop entrance.
Norway's drivers have chosen to go electric because the government has made it easy and convenient to do so. It seems likely that British drivers would make the same choice, given the number taking electric cars on in spite of the occasional challenges – if only previous governments had been brave enough to commit and force some profit out of builder's hands in exchange for a better future.
The sun always shines on EVs
Those early electric cars worked for Norwegians in the 1990s – with available and cheap charging – both despite and because of Norway's vast oil wealth. It took prescient activism from environmental scientist Professor Harald Røstvik and Norway's best-known pop band A-ha in 1989 to push the government to invest in and subsidise zero-emission vehicles well ahead of much of Europe.
Røstvik was already involved in producing solar-powered cars and concepts in the 1980s, and discusses EV infrastructure with governments around the world – including the UK. Showing a readiness to take on levies the government placed on vehicle use, Morten Harket and Magne Furuholmen brought an early electric Fiat Panda to the country – and misbehaved as much as is possible with a 28-mile range.
By refusing to pay tax on the car, and ignoring fines, road charges and parking restrictions, A-ha's fame helped make the case that electric cars should be free of such charges as an incentive for drivers to choose sustainable, greener vehicles.
Britain doesn't have the same level of vehicle taxation to use as an incentive. As an example, in 2005 a Mazda RX-8 (a car with notoriously high CO2 for the era) could be bought for £17,500 on the road. That same car in Norway had a list price equivalent to £42,000 before ongoing taxes. Exemption for EVs meant that Norway's drivers were ready to accept the new technology for more than just environmental reasons.
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Hydrogen – two centuries of the fuel of the future
- Pros: abundant supply, no need for excavation, byproduct is water
- Cons: extracting hydrogen uses more energy than you get, rather flammable
Never mind flying cars. The future we've been promised over and over has been hydrogen. Abundant, potent and available without intensive mining and logistics, the hydrogen economy has been pitched as the successor to fossil fuels for over a century.
We can go back to 1807 for a practical demonstration of a hydrogen-powered vehicle. French inventor Isaac de Rivaz used hydrogen for his first spark-ignition engine. BMW 750i V12s, Mazda RX-8s, and the Toyota GR Yaris have all been demonstrated and even built in low numbers to test and showcase the ease of adapting existing ICE engines to run on hydrogen.
Overall, though, hydrogen's potential is generally seen as a means of solving infrastructure issues rather than a replacement for petrol. Fuel-cell technology has been demonstrated since 1966's GM Electrovan. You can buy the Toyota Mirai but hydrogen fuel-cell cars are still experimental and not making significant progress towards mass production.
In a fuel-cell hydrogen is a substitute for a large battery for energy storage, and the main benefit is refilling the tank quickly compared with the time taken to charge a BEV. Battery and charging technology is closing the gap in usability but in the grand scheme of global warming making batteries and charging them introduces more problems for the future.
And why the future is here, and Hydrogen isn't
Hydrogen is wonderful in terms of local emissions when used to generate power. The process of burning it with oxygen, or using it in a fuel cell, creates a lot of energy and the waste product is hydrogen and oxygen. Water, in other words. Water is also where most of the world's hydrogen reserves are easiest to access.
The same strength of chemical reaction that generates energy when hydrogen bonds with oxygen takes an immense amount of energy to break (electrolytic cracking). Hydrogen as fuel is merely moving the emissions and energy demand out of sight, for now. Most of what is generated todat is not done in a 'green' way, and most is used to refine fossil fuels.
Alternative fuels for zero-emissions from ICE
The legislation in place is for zero tailpipe emissions vehicles. It does not specify any given technology to achieve that result, though the assumption with current technology is that this is only achieved by battery electric vehicles – BEVs. Most people call these electric cars or EVs.
There are alternative fuels for the traditional combustion engine. For car enthusiasts, motorsport and motorbikes this is an emotional, visceral aspect of the hobby. The noise, the sense of power being generated and the technical accomplishment of getting more power or efficiency from the same basic concept.
But they still produce emissions, even if the fuel is carbon-neutral in production and distribution.
An electric motor is a technical achievement and miracle of engineering and science as well, but rather harder to relate to for many. There are significant efforts from brands such as Audi and Porsche to find a way of keeping the passion alive without polluting.
Synthetic fuel – grow your own petrol?
There are several initiatives for creating fuel from methane, ethanols, CO2 and hydrogen combinations such as hydrogen in ammonia. These work well for large companies and motorsport, where you can claim the reduced CO2 in production offsets the tailpipe gases of combustion for net zero.
Synthetic fuels do not result in zero exhaust emissions, so unless the government wants to track carbon-trading data for 41 million vehicles and say it's solved pollution, synthetic fuel will not mean combustion-engined cars cars and vans continue to be sold after 2035.
It may allow a clause for limited high-performance or specialised models to remain on sale, but the emissions still remain both behind the scenes, and at the exhaust pipe.
Dealing with the deadline: car ownership after 2030
The measures in place are focused on new car sales. As it stands, the best advice we can offer if you don't want to buy an electric car – or simply can't due to your location and available charging points – is to plan to buy a car with a long warranty that meets all your needs before 2028.
That's because electric cars will be the focus for all brands after the percentage of petrol and diesel models allowed is smaller than ZEVs.
If you weren't planning on buying a new car, remember that the stock of good used cars – particularly performance or enthusiast models – will be smaller and in greater demand. Scrappage schemes are inevitable, as we have already seen in many clean air zones.
Find a good garage and spend money on proactive maintenance and frequent oil and filter changes. Get rustproofing into sills, inner arches and inner wings. Bear in mind that many manufacturers will stop providing spares ten years after the car is discontinued as well. It's worth stocking up vulnerable parts when you find cheap ones, such as door mirrors, lighting units and ABS sensors. Even if you don't need them before you change the car, the next owner may pay a premium and be grateful to have them.
Or you could just buy a Toyota at the end of 2030, assuming the 10 year warranty remains intact.
