Last orders: 2030 ban for new petrol and diesel car sales
Britain's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate effectively bans the sale of new non-hybrid cars and vans from 2030 and any new petrol- or diesel-engined models from 2035. Our guide explains what all of this really means for you.
- New petrol- and diesel-only car sales to end by 2030, hybrids by 2035
- Some countries are backing away from similar deadlines
- Over 50% of new car sales must be electric after 2028
Britain has legislated itself into a corner. Its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate came into force in January 2024 effectively banning the sales of mass-produced non-hybrid models by 2030 and all remaining petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2035. Yet with concerns about whether the charging infrastructure can cope people aren't buying electric cars as quickly as their manufacturers and governments hoped. If cars can't be charged, car buyers won't switch.
'It's the end of the world as we know it' suggested REM, its hit charting at a time when environmentalism was the trendy subject for individuals and businesses, while new car sales were largely made up of relatively small and light models with very little control over what came out of the exhaust pipe.
The world didn't end but humans didn't change. Consumption and new car sales boomed, the planet warmed, and governments finally took the problem seriously. Well, a bit. Global accords resulted a general aim to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
The upshot of that is the intention to end the sale of new fossil-fuelled cars and vans. Britain has elected a tighter deadline than some nations with 2030, though the cut-off date for all new vehicles to produce zero emissions is 2035. Hence the confusion.
As always in politics it's a case of saying what the public wants to hear around a policy that will be unpopular with many voters.
What is net zero in climate terms?
Net zero is the aim to balance emissions and green initiatives, with no additional carbon dioxide (CO2) added to the atmosphere so that global warming does not progress beyond a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Most of the activity on this front is in wider industry and infrastructure but transport is a substantial sector and contributor of greenhouse gases.
It is also a substantial contributor of money in local, national and global economies. Juggling taxation based on a fossil fuel economy with legislation and initiatives to end dependence on them would be destabilising even if every country were united.
The race to cut tailpipe emissions is already on
Most countries covered by the agreement have a long-term plan to move to all new vehicles sold being ZEVs by 2035.
Norway has all but achieved this goal already, with 90% of new car sales being electric by the end of 2024. That's without banning anything but with a largely wealthy population of just 5.5 million, punitive taxes on CO2 emissions from cars and a significant head start on sustainable energy and electric infrastructure.
Britain has some way to go but it's not the drivers and new car buyers to blame for the rate of EV adoption. If anything, the latest electric cars are exceptional value and extremely capable and refined. There must be something else putting people off.
What is the current plan for new car and van sales in the UK?
Despite successive governments and announcements, the plan remains much the same as it did in 2020.
- Sales of new petrol- and diesel-only cars to end by 2030.
- A further five-year transition towards zero-emission vehicles.
- Sales of all new vehicles that emit pollution from the tailpipe to end by 2035.
The legislation that effectively bans the sale of new combustion engine-only vehicles by 2030 has been presented differently by successive Prime Ministers. A combination of factors — mostly around EV infrastructure — encouraged the outgoing Conservative government to claim they had pushed that back to 2035 during the General Election campaign, but the legislation for the 2030 deadline was already in force.
The Labour government has since 'restored' the 2030 deadline. It's a way of showing a commitment to either solving the big problem of global warming, or empathising with voters who are rightly worried about their transport choices in the future.
Yet in every public statement since 2020, 2030 has been the cut-off date for sales of purely petrol or diesel powered new cars and vans. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids will still be allowed, with tighter CO2 targets each year. By 2035, all new vehicle sales/registrations need to be zero-emission vehicles. Banning engines isn't the motivation and neither is the type of fuel they use.
The real aim of the legislation is to ensure new vehicles in the UK don't produce pollution when used. If someone makes a petrol-powered car that emits zero CO2 and NOx at the tailpipe, they can sell it. With current technology only viable option is electric vehicles.
2035 plan for all new car sales to be EVs remains unchanged
The ban most people are worried about, the one that will force their future new car purchases to be electric, is in 2035. It always has been, since the legislation was first proposed and schemes to support manufacturers and dealers in the transition became legislation.
Car and van buyers may find availability of new non-electric vehicles is a problem far sooner. 2028 marks the point when 52% of new car sales must be zero-emission vehicles to comply. Targets have been increasing every year, yet British buyers increased the share of pure petrol cars bought in 2024.
Electric van sales should account for 58% of new registrations in 2029, yet electric van market share remained below 6% of new registrations in 2023 and 2024.
Until 2030, combustion-engined new vehicles can be sold but each one will cost manufacturers more in penalties. Without infrastructure and capacity to allow these vehicles to charge, either the new vehicle market is going to collapse or car and van prices are going to rise yet again.
Have your say on the ZEV mandate for 2030-2035
There is now a new ZEV mandate consultation which is open for responses until 18 February 2025. This proposes reinstating the 2030 ban on sales of new petrol- and diesel-only vehicles, while retaining the 2035 deadline for all new vehicle registrations to be zero-emission models.
Progress towards the 2030 deadline is already underway. The current target of 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030 came into force across the UK for 2025. The shifting of dates over the next five years is focused on two concerns for car buyers and environmentalists:
- An outright ban on new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, including hybrids, or allowing hybrids to continue until 2035. This includes the definition of what a hybrid car is for these purposes and a threshold of zero-emission driving range plug-in hybrids must achieve.
- Acceptable levels of CO2 emissions within that framework for new car sales until the 2035 cut-off.
You can express your opinions and influences across 17 questions. Most focus on what manufacturers should be allowed to do to meet targets within the VETS for cars and vans, plus how the emissions targets are measured and tightened.
Where a difference may be made by feedback is in the interpretation of the 'utility factor' (or UF) for plug-in hybrid cars. At the moment it looks like mild-hybrid models will be excluded after 2030 but real-world figures suggest they're as economical and clean as many PHEVs where drivers don't plug them in.
The UF is how those wild three-figure mpg figures or '16g/km CO2 from a 2.5-tonne SUV' figures are derived for PHEVs. They assume a proportion of the WLTP test cycle is performed with zero emissions or fuel consumption.
Most drivers don't appear to charge their PHEVs regularly but even taking advantage of charging as often as possible and a month of short, EV-only drives, our long-term test Volvo V90 Recharge achieved 82mpg. Less than a quarter of its claimed 353mpg.
Multiply the 18g/km CO2 by that ratio and you get 77g/km. Still impressive for the car in question — but not the win in average fleet economy terms that's needed by manufacturers.
Four prime ministers, two parties, one date
The headline isn't referring to Boris Johnson's lockdown activities. His parliament is responsible for the ambitious roadmap to zero emissions though, in part.
While the EU's legislation involved the UK before Brexit, the UK did not step back from reasonable measures to curb greenhouse gases. In 2017 the Conservative government under Theresa May announced a proposed ban on new petrol and diesel car sales by 2040.
In 2020, Boris Johnson's government revised those targets to 2030. This scheme is faster than many countries, but the UK has a rapid turnover of vehicles and would see benefits sooner. In 2023 Rishi Sunak announced the ban would be pushed back to 2035, but it was the same policy presented differently.
At the end of 2024, a new Labour government announced the reinstatement of the 2030 ban. You'll be surprised to learn that once again, it's the same plan and what is underway is refinements of the legal process the manufacturers are following.
For the sake of brevity and clicks, the phrase 'petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2030' dominated most headlines. That's a little misleading and implies existing vehicles would not be allowed on the roads.
Even if drivers and infrastructure could cope, based on SMMT data and the age of vehicles in use in Britain (a total of 41.5 million in 2023), two-thirds of vehicles sold in 2029 will still be in use by 2042, and a third of those will be in use beyond that.
Is it any wonder Britain's drivers are confused? Yet, based on vehicle lifespan and usage patterns, 2030 is a reasonable deadline if you want to phase out mass consumption of fossil fuels for road transport by 2050.
How will cars and vans meet the 2030 ban?
Manufacturers and dealers are approaching the targets carefully with detailed adjustments to model ranges and available engines. Expect low stock levels with few discounts and incentives — unless you're buying electric vehicles.
Partnerships and compromises in specification in an attempt to let production reach natural ends in cycle will become frequent, while encouraging greater sales of EVs will be universal.
VETS — emissions trading and EV advantages
To meet emissions targets and not force a sudden cut-off car sales in the UK are tracked and balanced under a programme called Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes, or VETS for short. One aspect is an annual decrease in the percentage of non-zero emissions vehicles allowed to be registered in the year.
The other is the overall fleet average CO2 g/km rating for non-zero emissions vehicles, which also reduces annually but also can be reduced further for a manufacturer if they fail to meet targets.
Selling more zero emissions vehicles can either allow more non-zero emissions vehicles to be registered or the credit can be converted into higher fleet average CO2 allowances.
The more EVs a manufacturer sells, the more petrol and diesel vehicles can be sold without penalty.
The table below shows the registration targets for UK car and van sales before 2031 and the five-year transition to 100% zero-emission vehicle sales. From 2031 only hybrid and plug-in hybrid models are likely to be offered as alternatives to electric vehicles until 2035.
| Year | Electric car sales | ICE car sales | Electric van sales | ICE van sales |
| 2025 | 28% | 72% | 16% | 84% |
| 2026 | 33% | 67% | 24% | 76% |
| 2027 | 38% | 62% | 34% | 66% |
| 2028 | 52% | 48% | 46% | 54% |
| 2029 | 66% | 34% | 58% | 42% |
| 2030 | 80% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
The trading aspect goes beyond single manufacturers. The credits for cars and vans under either registration, or CO2 targets, can be bought and sold between manufacturers, or banked for future use.
This means electric-only firms such as Tesla get a very valuable asset when they achieve volume sales — one that also means they can influence the number of non-electric cars available by increasing the pool of non-ZEV registrations allowed overall.
Other changes are coming though — and it's highly likely we'll see a big reduction in the availability of powerful, large plug-in hybrid SUVs after 2027. That's because the real-world data used alongside WLTP testing for emissions reveals that people just don't plug them in enough, so the CO2 advantage they have will be taken away. That will negatively impact fleet CO2 levels significantly.
If you want that Mazda CX60 PHEV or Range Rover P550e, get your order in soon.
Exemptions for small manufacturers
The scheme to phase-out tailpipe emissions between 2030 and 2035 is designed to alleviate pressure on buyers as well as large vehicle manufacturers which need many years to plan their model cycles and recover investment.
Where does that leave smaller, specialist car companies, many of which are based in the UK? Firstly it's important to understand different terminolgy regarding those businesses:
- Micro Manufacturers — fewer than 1000 vehicles registered annually.
- Low Volume manufacturers — fewer than 2500 vehicles registered annually.
- Component car manufacturers — kits produced for home builders to finish, often using secondhand parts.
Obvious examples of small volume manufacturers would be Caterham, Ariel, Morgan and Lotus. To put the threat to enthusiast cars in perspective, just 68 new Caterhams were registered in 2024 and since 2001 the highest annual volume has not exceeded 300. Ariel's figures are similar. Even Lotus, with a new electric SUV to offer and refreshed, striking sports cars, sold far fewer than 1000 vehicles.
Brands which are part of a wider group but operate their own exclusive design and manufacturing facilities may operate under low volume rules. This means DS and Abarth won't be getting away that easily. Alpine however could theoretically move A110 production (and design) to the F1 site in Enstone and continue to sell it under a new brand, distinct from the Alpine A290.
Micro-manufacturing, kit-cars and specialists
You should also be able to register new kit cars with petrol or diesel power up to 2035 and for kits that use the identity of a donor vehicle there appear to be no plans to ban re-registration. There have been cases of restomod EVs being denied their original ID due to simple diversion from the original construction.
As such any modifications have to be very carefully planned with the only clarity being if it's likely to receive a Q-plate, it probably won't be approved after 2035 unless it is zero-emissions.
Any converter or manufacturer which uses individual vehicle approval has an extra five years to adapt to zero-emission powertrains. That may not be enough time for some.
Why Britain needs tough action and investment
A ban on consumer choice is never going to make for goodwill even when it's for the greater good. We want proper sugar in our sweets and soft drinks, we want our food to be salty so it tastes good (or at least familiar) and some of us probably still want to smoke.
But those are nothing compared to undoing Britain's reliance on cars and fossil fuel.
Norway chose electric, why can't Britain?
Taking Norway's 90% zero-emission vehicle sales as a best-case scenario, for years the oil revenues received by that country were saved as a protection against the end of fossil fuel demand. Some of those funds have been invested in sustainable electricity generation and infrastructure.
Norwegians pay a lot of tax personally but they enjoy services and subsidies funded by corporations and a good standard of living. There are lots of Norwegian car enthusiasts and plenty of petrolheads, but new car sales have been biased towards EVs since the first, short-range, urban runabouts whirred onto the streets.
Cars like the G-Wiz and Th!nk were laughed at here — for Norwegians, choosing a light and simple zero-emissions vehicle for short trips is just common sense.
What has worked for Norway that Britain could have done?
In a word, infrastructure.
- Britain is still building houses without off-street parking or sustainable energy.
- Charging networks and public parking have not been given suitable investment.
- Sustainable car use is less of a priority than economic activity.
British drivers aren't afraid to drive electric cars — new sales are already at one in five vehicles being EVs, though vans are lagging behind. With so many vehicles on the road, so many users and a high proportion of multi-car households with reliance on street parking, there simply isn't the charging infrastructure to let everyone have an electric car.
It's highly unlikely that such infrastructure will exist by 2030, or even 2050. The demand on the national grid is already a limiting factor for commercial operators, so clever solutions such as off-grid microgenerators, communal parking and charging station hubs are going to be needed.
House builders and town planners are not making this investment to future-proof or plan ahead. Even now, new-build properties targeted at commuters tend to have one parking space, limited on-street parking and reliance on the grid for energy supply.
Private enterprise has a role to play as well as government and local authorities. Artists' impressions of solar-panelled sheltered car parks, accessible park and ride schemes plus charging while you do your weekly shop seem as fantastical as a 1960s sci-fi paperback cover depicting flying cars on Mars.
For many EV owners life outside of large cities looks more like a 700-space supermarket car park with four slow charge points, two of which have old diesel cars in them because they're nearer the shop entrance and 'there's no law against it'. Yet, anyway...
Norway's drivers have chosen to go electric because the government has made it easy and convenient to do so. It seems likely that British drivers would make the same choice given the number taking electric cars on in spite of the occasional challenges — if only previous governments had been brave enough to commit and force some profit out of builder's hands in exchange for a better future.
The sun always shines on EVs
Those early electric cars worked for Norwegians in the 1990s — with available and cheap charging — both despite and because of their nation's vast oil wealth. It took prescient activism from environmental scientist Professor Harald Røstvik and Norway's best-known pop band A-ha in 1989 to push the government to invest in and subsidise zero-emission vehicles well ahead of much of Europe.
Røstvik was already involved in producing solar-powered cars and technologies in the 1980s and discussed EV infrastructure with governments around the world, including the UK's. Showing a readiness to take on levies the government placed on vehicle use, Morten Harket and Magne Furuholmen brought an early electric Fiat Panda to their homeland — and misbehaved as much as is possible with its 28-mile range.
By refusing to pay tax on the car and ignoring fines, road charges and parking restrictions, A-ha's fame helped make the case that electric cars should be free of such penalties as an incentive for drivers to choose sustainable, greener vehicles.
Britain doesn't have the same level of vehicle taxation to use as an incentive. As an example, in 2005 a Mazda RX-8 (a car with notoriously high CO2 emissions for the era) could be bought for £17,500 on the road. That same car in Norway had a list price equivalent to £42,000 before ongoing taxes. Exemption for EVs meant that Norway's drivers were ready to accept the new technology for more than just environmental reasons.
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Is hydrogen the real fuel of the future?
Never mind flying cars, the future we've been repeatedly promised has been hydrogen-fuelled. Abundant, potent and available without intensive mining and logistics, the hydrogen economy has been pitched as the successor to fossil fuels for over a century.
- Advantages — abundant supply, no need for excavation, byproduct is water.
- Disadvantages — extracting hydrogen uses more energy than you get from it, rather flammable.
We can go back to 1807 for a practical demonstration of a hydrogen-powered vehicle. French inventor Isaac de Rivaz used hydrogen for his first spark-ignition engine. More recently BMW 750i V12s, Mazda RX-8s and the Toyota GR Yaris have all been demonstrated and even built in low numbers to test and showcase the ease of adapting existing ICE engines to run on hydrogen.
Overall, though, hydrogen's potential is generally seen as a means of solving infrastructure issues rather than a replacement for petrol. Fuel-cell technology has been demonstrated since 1966's GM Electrovan. You can buy the Toyota Mirai but hydrogen fuel-cell cars are still experimental and not making significant progress towards mass production.
In a fuel-cell vehicle, hydrogen is a substitute for a large battery for energy storage and the main benefit is refilling the tank quickly compared with the time taken to charge a BEV. Battery and charging technology is closing the gap in usability but in the grand scheme of global warming making batteries and charging them introduces more problems for the future.
Hydrogen is wonderful in terms of local emissions when used to generate power. The process of burning it with oxygen, or using it in a fuel cell, creates a lot of energy and the waste product is water. Water is also where most of the world's hydrogen reserves are easiest to access.
The same strength of chemical reaction that generates energy when hydrogen bonds with oxygen takes an immense amount of energy to break — a process known as electrolytic cracking. Hydrogen as fuel is merely moving the emissions and energy demand out of sight, for now. Most of what is generated today is not done in a 'green' way — ironically the majority of it is used to refine fossil fuels.
Zero-emission alternative fuels to petrol and diesel
The legislation in place is for zero tailpipe emissions vehicles. It does not specify any given technology to achieve that result, though the assumption with current technology is that this is only achieved by battery electric vehicles — BEVs. Right now it's certainly the least costly way to go zero emissions.
There are alternative fuels for the traditional internal combustion engine. For enthusiasts of cars, motorsport and motorbikes this is an emotional, visceral aspect of the hobby. The noise, the sense of power being generated and the technical accomplishment of getting more power or efficiency from the same basic concept.
But they still produce emissions even if the fuel is carbon-neutral in production and distribution.
An electric motor is a technical achievement and miracle of engineering and science as well, but rather harder to relate to for many beyond smaller, appliance-type devices. There are significant efforts from brands such as Audi and Porsche to find a way of keeping the passion alive without polluting.
There are also several initiatives for creating fuel from methane, ethanols, CO2 and hydrogen combinations such as hydrogen in ammonia. These work well for large companies and motorsport, where you can claim the reduced CO2 in production offsets the tailpipe gases of combustion for net zero.
Synthetic fuels do not result in zero exhaust emissions, so unless the government wants to track carbon-trading data for 41 million vehicles and say it's solved pollution, synthetic fuel will not mean brand new combustion-engined cars cars and vans continue to be sold after 2035.
It may allow a clause for limited high-performance or specialised models to remain on sale but the emissions still remain both behind the scenes and at the exhaust pipe.
Dealing with the deadline — car ownership after 2030
The measures in place are focused on new car sales. As it stands, the best advice we can offer if you don't want to buy an electric car — or simply can't due to your location and available charging points — is to plan to buy a new car or van with a long warranty that meets all your needs before 2028.
That's because electric cars will be the focus for all brands after the percentage of petrol and diesel models allowed is smaller than ZEVs, so it's likely some will only produce EVs long before even plug-in hybrids are outlawed.
If you weren't planning on buying a new car, remember that the stock of good used cars — particularly performance or enthusiast models — will become smaller and in greater demand. Scrappage schemes are inevitable, as we have already seen in many clean air zones.
Find a good garage and spend money on proactive maintenance and frequent oil and filter changes. Get rustproofing into sills, inner arches and inner wings. Bear in mind that many manufacturers will stop providing spares ten years after the car is discontinued as well.
It's worth stocking up vulnerable parts when you find cheap ones such as door mirrors, lighting units and ABS sensors. Even if you don't need them before you change the car, the next owner may pay a premium and be grateful to have them.
Or you could just buy a Toyota at the end of 2030, assuming the 10 year warranty remains intact.
