We are entering the same type of deflationary environment that Japan entered in 1991 and which, 17 years, later, they are not out of yet. House prices have fallen by 90% on average in that time and the cost of all 'big ticket' items such as boats, bikes, electronic goods and, of course, cars has also fallen dramatically.
We are going to see the self same thing but perhaps more so because our credit debt binge has been hugely greater and assets across the board are going to fall in value in ways that will shock most of us. They will be talking about this economic crisis long after most off us are dead and gone just in the same way as we talk about 1929 and the Great Depression.
Japan is a small over-crowded island with twice the population of the UK - house prices fell 90% there. It is going to happen here also. What hope for cars!
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Those who properly downsize while still suiting their needs are trying to get ahead of the game, not to try and save a few quid on VED. Look ahead, which few seem to have done up to this point and project how much more expensive cars will be.
I downsized not because its a bit expensive now, but because in 5 years time, I think it could well be prohibitive to run a large car and I dont want to be one of the predictable whining bunch who say they didnt know, its so unfair.
The policy IS clear - big cars will be targeted as the enviromental issues continue to be persued - short of the planet suddenly showing signs of recovery from whatever it is they think is going wrong, that is the way it is going and its a case of whether or not the individual can afford to be shortsighted.
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Those who properly downsize while still suiting their needs are trying to get ahead of the game not to try and save a few quid on VED. Look ahead which few seem to have done up to this point and project how much more expensive cars will be. I downsized not because its a bit expensive now but because in 5 years time I think it could well be prohibitive to run a large car and I dont want to be one of the predictable whining bunch who say they didnt know its so unfair.
Exactly. My Fiat Brava died in June after 10 years and I hope that my next car will last 10 years. It was going to be a CRV a year ago when I began looking but all this environmental change has made me stop and think. I am not convinced that a smaller car will fit my needs in terms of what I carry and my height but, if one did, then I probably would have bought one by now because of where I can foresee the costs of motoring going in the next 5 to 10 years.
Having said that, was just coming home from the pub with a mate and we had a Jazz in front of us and it just looked tiny compared to the other cars in front of and passing it - I don't think the car makers have got it right yet by any means in terms of lower CO2, higher MPG and practical space. Maybe these next generation cars need to have engines no longer capable of doing 100 MPH plus as that is just a waste of development and resources these days.
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It is possible to package a small car to be spacious - my Charade is certainly small, but rear legroom is comparable to my dads Astra as is space in general, aside from the boot although that is a decent size for a small car.
The clue is the stupid amount of interior trim that cars seem to have these days - the Kia Picanto looses nearly two feet of boot width to plastic trim which serves no practical purpose. I love cars like the Fiat Doblo which offer great space for low price and some models offer good emissions and economy.
I was talking to a customer with an Audi Q7 - by rights an enormous vehicle, but strangely terrible use of space at the expense of cabin design.
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Interesting thread this... We downsized to a Note a year ago and have been very satisfied (it's an SE, so no tyre size problems on it). It's very spacious in the back with the sliding rear seat and to be honest, my 2 teenage kids love it for the legroom. Average 47mpg on petrol. In fact, it is perfectly capable of replacing the Octavia as our main family car, except perhaps for the annual French holiday - although a large roofbox would sort that.
A work colleague has recently been driving a 1.2 Corsa courtesy car and has commented on the lack of space compared to her 1.1 Panda - suprising given the external size of the Corsa these days.
I hope we see a move away from increasing size and weight to lighter, smaller, more efficient designs such as the Panda and Charade, Sirion etc. I see that the new Insignia is larger (if that's possible) than the outgoing Vectra and even the new Mondeo! Wrong car at the wrong time IMO. Can't these manufacturers see the writing on the wall, or are they like a large superertanker and difficult to make changes in direction?
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>> Can't these manufacturers see the writing on the wall or are they like a large superertanker and difficult to make changes in direction?
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Look how many makes charge 2K for a non updateable sat-nav when you can buy such a device for 100 quid. Ipod connectors are still unavailble on many makes or if available they cost a few hundred pounds for something that effectively costs pence. Bill Gates was right about the motor industry.
I think cars have got heavier re NCAP ratings - 5 stars is a must today.
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>>We are entering the same type of deflationary environment that Japan entered in 1991 and which, 17 years, later, they are not out of yet. <<
I am not sure we are entering a deflationary period - all the signs are that we have quite strong inflation. The problem we will have as a country is that we have nothing to sell any more to help us out of this mess. As a nation our wealth is primarily dependent upon the finance sector and now this is up the creek without a paddle we will struggle much more than most other countries. Even the USA has a huge and very high tech manufacturing base, as does Germany, France, Japan etc. We have run out of North Sea oil, the finance sector is broken - and is being rescued by Spain, the French and Germans own our energy supplies, we sold our Nuclear energy capability to the Japanese and Americans, any car factories we have are owned by the Germans, Japanese and French and what gas we do need also comes from Russia and Norway. Singapore also realised along time ago that it had no natural resources and realised that it's people would be the differentiator. They have a very highly educated population with companies lining up to build factories there.
People keep thinking the worst is over but I'm afraid it is only just starting. As people have reported we have spent £500Bn just to stop the rot and stand still.
On the subject of downsizing though I am in favour of pushing the car makers to reduce emissions. They can do it with a bit of pressure. Cars today must be 70% more fuel efficient than 20-30 years ago and with a bit more pressure the Japs and Germans will do it again for us. We can't because we have no factories or scientists (oustide of RR and BAE).
Also cars are getting bigger so downsizing to a Jazz/Note is not really that uncomfortable because these are fairly big cars in reality.
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The policy IS clear - big cars will be targeted as the enviromental issues continue to be persued...
Only in the UK, possibly. Car manufacturers have to cater for more than one market when designing and building a new model. Should one market put too many draconian measures on a manufacturer or manufacturers then they will simply pull out of that market.
Some European Governments have yet to decide how they are going to implement or even IF they are going to implement taxation by exhaust emissions.
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During my days in the mob on fishery protection duties, the French and Spanish completely ignored all the rules then, so I don't see them doing it now.
They have a habit of signing agreements, smiling nicely and ignoring anything that will hurt their own national interests. . (Which isn't necessarily a bad thing)
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During my days in the mob on fishery protection duties the French and Spanish completely ignored all the rules then so I don't see them doing it now. They have a habit of signing agreements smiling nicely and ignoring anything that will hurt their own national interests. . (Which isn't necessarily a bad thing)
This has long be the problem with the EU - they bring in a 1001 new rules each year and the only country that is stupid enough to enforce them is the UK with our a nally obsessed Civil Service control freakdom. The resto f the EU, most notably the Italians, Greeks and Spanish, just ignore them.
A good example of this is when, a few years back, they decided that all EU bridges had to be reinforced to take bigger juggernaunts. Us mugs did it at a huge expense, other countries either did not bother or are, years after the deadline, still getting round to doing it... and certain Med EU countires just pocketed big wads of EU grants to do it but, um, the money never got as far as the bridges.
The only country with a more a nal Civil Service than us is India and, um, we are the silly sods who taught them how to run one.
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You have to change a car to meet the demands of whichever market you are selling it in - if one or two brands did pull out, that actually makes it more cost effective for the remaining brands to make the changes for our particular market.
One thing that amuses me about the global warming thing - if we are to believe that seas will rise significantly, doesnt that just mean that we will all invest in boats instead of cars? I for one cant wait to see the first 'floating city'! Maybe im just an optimist :-)
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You have to change a car to meet the demands of whichever market you are selling it in
Reading that made me think DDR and Trabant. :(
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I'm all in favour of global warming with gas prices at the level they are at the moment.
Might cut down on my energy bills.
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