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This is a sub forum to discuss the problems associated with the ever increasing cost of fuel.
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Usual rules apply.
Any newly opened threads surrounding fuel costs will be moved in here.
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 17/12/2008 at 18:32
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US light crude is currently $82, compared with $147 at its height in the summer.
Yet despite the 45% drop in crude prices, petrol is still £1.08 and diesel about £1.20 in Cheshire.
Do you think that now the emotive 'barrier' of £1 per litre has been breached, fuel prices will drop back below that threshold?
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Not if our beloved Chancellor has anything to do with it!
I'm betting on a 4-5p/l duty rise next month.
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Economics can have a strange effect. I self-fund my high mileage driving. Therefore at one level I should be among those who most fear higher road fuel prices. Since petrol and diesel have come back down a bit I notice a significant increase in traffic levels. Unscientifically, I guess to much the same level they were prior to the steep price rises.
The odd side effect of the reduced traffic levels when fuel was at its most expensive, was that I could get to more customers in a day than normal. Therefore, I could make more money. This more than offset the increases in fuel costs. Now that traffic is dense again, I can't get around as efficiently and my income is reduced as a result.
Like I said, funny old thing economics.
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As an aside to the above. I wonder if the recent lowering of traffic density due to fuel costs has had any appreciable effect on lowering the rate of accicidents ? Further to that, it is also noticeable, I think, that many are driving more slowly, probably in an effort to save fuel. I also wonder if this has led to a reduction in accidents or whether it may in fact have had the opposite effect because people are concentrating on the "wrong" things or simply getting bored and losing concentration. Would be interested in MLCs view/opinion for example.
Edited by Humph Backbridge on 10/10/2008 at 14:23
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You wouldn't put money on the chance of the motorist not being hammered with an 'extra' fuel duty increase to recoup losses and fund government spending after the financial shenanigans that are going on at the moment. Just wait until the next round of road tax rises, on top of the 'Green' rises.
Being negative, nah, just realistic...
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Brown's been in the news today urging the oil companies to pass on the recent crude oil price falls to the pumps as soon as possible.
"I want these price cuts passed onto the consumer, and passed on as quickly as possible."
Are people really stupid enough to fall for this? Isn't the pump price still about 70% tax?
Cheers
DP
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Being negative, nah, just realistic...
Please tell me you're not one of those socialist whiners who objects to ordinary people digging deep into their pockets to help out the bankers in their hour of need?
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What me gov?? As a new shareholder in the British Banking system, should I worry?
By the way, did you read in HJ's column on Saturday about the Dartford River Crossing going up by 50% (50p to you & me.)
Hold on to your hats!! We're off.
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Filled up today, petrol 106.9 and diesel 114.9 ,but with 5p a litre off at Sainsbury's is there anywhere cheaper.
For those who want to know,A41 towards Watford, about 3 miles from the M25 -Worth the slight detour to fill up- and good links to rejoin the M1
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Haven't looked at spot oil (hardly ever do) but it was drifting down towards $80 the other day.
I hope I will be given due credit for predicting that it would come back down to $65 in the thread a few months ago when everyone was screaming about $150-plus for ever and the £10 gallon by Michaelmas eve...
Touch wood of course...
:o}
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Should I be wishing I had not put 60 quid in diesel in the other day?
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I only put £20 in mine at the weekend because a "little voice" told me it would be cheaper this week.................
Perhaps I shall spend the saving on a McDonalds ( without gherkin )
;-)
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filled up today £1.03 a liter at tesco made a welcome relief to actually see both displays whizzing by instead of just the 'this sale' one
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I put £20 in tonight at Tesco and was about to (mistakenly) take the super unleaded nozzle out, so i looked to see the price difference against normal 95 unleaded - both were the same at 103.9!! Does anyone know why this is the case? Obviously 99 super unleaded went in, not that it'll make much difference to a 12yr old Laguna!
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A colleagues d.i.l. works in a petrol station and their company rumour-mill says petrol is expected to dip back below £1/L in a few weeks time. I know its only hearsay, but here's hoping.
Looking on petrolprices.com, petrol is 101.9 at an Esso station in Mansfield, so getting close; but its a couple of p/l more in our area.
In case any Nectar card holders have not heard, Nectar and BP are doing a "win free fuel for a year" competition, with a draw entry every time you buy more than 30 litres.
Edited by Rich 9-3 on 14/10/2008 at 14:59
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I drove by a garage the other day offering discounts on petrol: the more you spent on the car wash, the greater the per litre discount.
People musn't be buying as they used to.
Edited by Optimist on 14/10/2008 at 15:02
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Back in February, I think it was, I posted the following on a thread about fuel prices:-
'My personal opinion is, cynic that I am, that now the psychological barrier of the £1 litre has been breached the next time you refuel for less than £1 a litre you will probably be filling up your squadron of flying pigs.'
Now, being one who likes to own up to being wrong before someone points it out, I know I'm sad but there you are, I'm going to spend a long evening sewing the wings on to my squadron of pigs following the item on the news that Asda and Morrisons are dropping the price of petrol to 99.9p per litre.
Having said that it is only just below a pound and I don't suppose I'd get change.......
Told you I was a cynic!
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a few months ago a barrel was something like $140 a barrel and diesel went up to 1.30/l now its down to $80 ,a reduction of 40 odd %, so why isn't the price closer to 75p/l -oh profiteering
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wotspur, I suspect the 15% difference in exchange rates plays its part, although that's clearly not the whole story.
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Nothing to do with profiteering, far more complicated. Everything to do with operating a fuel station has increased largely due to the increase in crude oil prices - the crude price is a very small part of this equation.
Edited by daveyjp on 16/10/2008 at 12:20
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I never again thought I'd see the litres going up faster than the price when filling up, but we're getting pretty close round these parts. 102.9p for 95RON UL at a close-ish (but not particularly convenient) supermarket. Was 104.9 this time yesterday.
OPEC will decide to cut production when they meet next week, but then they did that a few weeks back and the prices have continued to slide. The backside has fallen out of the global economy - what happens now is anyone's guess. I've heard distinguished economists contradict each other in the media all week with regard to oil prices, so what hope do the rest of us have of knowing what's going to happen?
Cheers
DP
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I filled up on Monday at 115.9 for diesel, petrol was 104.9. The same filling station today was 111.9 and 99.9 respectively.
I wonder what are the chances of diesel going below a quid?
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According to a paper:
Gordon Brown has called on garages to stop ignoring falling oil prices and start charging motorists a fair price for filling their tanks.
Correct me if I am wrong, but is it not GB & AD that collect the most from fuel sales?
up to 70% of the price of a gallon is TAX/duty.
He should therefore put his own house in order before calling for others to reduce prices.
What is a well known phrase - something to do with pots & black?
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Fuel duty was extortionate before the rises and is extortionate now though to be fair on Down and Bawling the exchequer has been taking a lower % take since the price rises, the increase being driven by production being near capacity alongside higher demand, demand is now falling so the price of crude on the market is falling so the oil companies are relaxing the forecourt prices though not by enough or quickly enough.
Edited by cheddar on 17/10/2008 at 08:17
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What he meant was "put petrol prices down, because motorists will need every penny they can get for my new VED increases"
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When the oil price goes down thtn he can increase the tax like he was going to do before the oil went up.
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I'm not a huge GB fan, but with oil now at $70 a barrel, I think he has a point!
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The last time crude oil was at the current price, $66 a barrel (April 07), the pump price of unleaded was 92.9p.
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its 0.99p for unleaded and 1.07 for diesel at my local shell. Hopefully it will come down even more!
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Sigh. 109.9 for unleaded, 119.9 for diesel in Cambridge yesterday.
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The last time crude oil was at the current price $66 a barrel (April 07) the pump price of unleaded was 92.9p.
So that proves Gordon Brown does not understand currency fluctuations.
In April 07, the £:$ rate was $2 to £1. So in April 07, the cost was £33 a barrel.
Today, rate is $1.73 to £1, and so $66 a barrel, it translates to £38.15 a barrel.
In other words the cost of crude oil in £ terms is 15.6 % higher today due to the £ losing value against the dollar.
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=65500&...e
www.upstreamonline.com/market_data/opec_basket/?id...s
www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forexqkchart&curcode1=GBP&...D
moneycentral.msn.com/investor/market/exchangerates...1
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Gordon Brown sells the nations Gold Reserves off at historic market lows -- Doh!
Gordon Brown throws £500 BILLION at banks and market tanks further -- Double Doh!
Gordon Bank demands petrol price cut - OPEC convene emergency meeting to cut production and force price up.
Am I seeing a pattern here?......
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If oil prices are going down due to a decrease in both individual and industrial demand, when is the petrol/derv price difference going to narrow back to say 2-3p or are the oil companies taking the proverbial again.
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On what GB still takes from fuel I wrote to my MP sometime ago about the role VAT plays in the pump price and suggesting a reduction.
I've had the reply she eventually got from Angela Eagle: no reduction because of EU rules.
So there we are.
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Oil drifted below $60 several days ago, sooner than I thought it would. Predictions that petrol may soon be less than 90p a litre may have put a gleam back in the eyes of many carphounds though, so may not last long. And of course the oil price will rise again when 'the world economy picks up', as if the vapours of a few spivs were the world economy I ask you....
I hope we will hear from the people who were confidently posting here a few months back that oil would never fall below $160 a barrel again, and the ten quid gallon was going to hit us around Christmas. I hope they will be able to think of a better excuse than that they had been reading the comics.
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Well, it's been in the news this morning that output from the world's oil fields has been falling faster than anticipated, and that without significant extra investment, will drop by 9% a year.
Perhaps BP could spare a few quid....
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... I hope we will hear from the people who were confidently posting here a few months back
I guess you are referring to this:
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=64625&...f
We have 8 weeks remaining for my oil price prediction based on the proviso of "Israel attacks Iran after the US elections but before new President takes office".
At the moment, it looks like the prediction of $65 by "sir_hiss" is on the money.
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I am dismayed to fnd that while unleaded is down to 94 pence a litre in my area, Diesel is still up there at £1.08. Why does the the discrepancy remain so high? If more people are using Derv than petrol why not produce less unleaded and more Derv? Much as I like my Diesel I fear that may he to change it but this is the wrong time to sell a car...I just despair.
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Central heating oil sales holding the price of Derv up, perhaps? Just bought some at 41.50/l, down from mid 50s at the peak.
Edited by oldnotbold on 29/10/2008 at 16:21
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There was a previous thread about the relative prices of diesel and petrol. To summarise, the ratio between the amounts of petrol and diesel you can extract from a barrel of crude are pretty much fixed, a bit of variation depending on the quality of the crude and the refining process but not much. Diesel (or its variants like home heating oil) is in bigger demand than petrol, particularly in winter. So the laws of supply and demand say it will remain relatively more expensive. Different tax regimes explain the price difference in other countires. And if the USA or any other large car market gets into diesel cars in a big way, expect the price differential to increase.
Edited by nick on 29/10/2008 at 16:30
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UL down to 92.9 here today, but diesel still 106.9 - we have one of each. Making the case for diesel more difficult to justify
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12p difference here in Reading today, but I'm still glad I switched my 250-mile per tank 1.6 petrol Toledo for a 500-mile per tank Stilo JTD estate this summer. When the difference is over 50p I'll be annoyed. As things stand I can't ever see myself switching back to petrol.
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I love the way Gordon Brown has demanded a cut in fuel prices, just as all forecasts show it is falling. It reminds me of when two-jags Prescott surveyed the floods a few years ago and after it stopped raining he ordered the waters to recede. With respect to the petro/diesel differential, the price of UL was about what it was now in October 2004, but diesel was only 3-4p more than UL.
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"..Different tax regimes explain the price difference in other countires..."
Diesel in Spain has less tax charged, but is still a higher price than unleaded. The latter has "dropped" to just under an euro per litre, whilst diesel is still two to three cents dearer.
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It seems to me that the current difference between the pump prices of petrol and diesel has never been higher - I noticed, driving down the A1 yesterday, that the current gap is about 11p - 12p.
Is this simply a matter of supply/demand - i.e. the fuel companies don't have the resources to produce enough diesel? (In which case, why not invest in the hardware to do so?)
Or am I right to suspect a more sinister motive - that there has been a big switch to diesel and the fuel companies are cynically profiteering from it?
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I suspect it's simple supply and demand.
Each barrel of crude oil yields less than half the amount of diesel when refined as it does petrol. This might vary slightly depending on where in the world the crude oil comes from, but it is to all intents and purposes fixed.
Between 1999 and 2005, an average of 23.7% of new registrations were diesel. In 2007, it was 45%. It is predicted to exceed 50% in the next couple of years, thanks largely to CO2 based RFL and company car tax, both of which heavily favour diesel engined vehicles, particularly if you want a bit of space, performance or luxury.
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Diesel is always dearer in winter. Its very similar to heating oil, so there is increased demand, plus it needs an antiwax additive.
All is used as an excuse to charge more
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Each barrel of crude oil yields less than half the amount of diesel when refined as it does petrol.
In that case, in the interests of conserving the amount of crude oil left the greenies who keep extolling the virtues of diesel cars have got it wrong.
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The refining process can be adjusted (within limits) to vary the proportions of petrol, diesel and the other by-products. Otherwise there would be huge amounts of whichever product was in less demand, instead of the relatively modest amount of flaring off we see.
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If there really is a fairly fixed proportion of diesel /petrol/other products produced when cracking raw oil, then the differential should decrease proprtionately as the price goes down - but it doesn't seem to.
If the true reason was one of extraction proportions when oil was $147 a barrel, when oil is $70-odd, that differential figure should be about halved also - i.e. the differential should be about 6ppl now - whereas it seems 'stuck' a 10-11ppl.
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Approx half of the petrol we refine at our UK refinery is shipped to the USA. In return we import roughly equal amounts of diesel. The UK is short of refining capacity for diesel, and over for petrol. Add these costs aswell. (by the way talking to staff there they say all UK refineries are similar).
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Just read asda is dropping petrol another 2p a litre to 92.9p from tomorrow
at all its 172 outlets but diesel would remain unchanged at 106.9p
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Now here's a thing. We are running two cars for business use. Fuel costs are analysed by dividing miles driven since last fill up into costs of refuelling. Just been and filled both up. One is a Ford Mondeo 2.0 TDCi estate and the other is Vauxhall Signum 2.2 petrol. With today's prices at £0.929 for petrol and £1.069 for diesel the fuel cost per mile for the two cars has reached parity at exactly 11p per mile.
So as things stand today two fairly similar cars, one petrol and one diesel have exactly the same fuel costs.
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In HJ's FAQ 73 (Diesel vs Petrol - pros and cons) he wrote that "Diesel fuel in the UK has become about 10% more expensive to buy than petrol."
In May I noticed that the differential was up to 13% at my local.
It is now 15%.
Next year?
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Quite Tyro. I was just reflecting that one more shift in price emphasis creates the rather weird scenario where it is cheaper in fuel terms to use my 2.2 petrol car than my 2.0 diesel. If that became a long term differential the potential impact on relative depreciation becomes interesting to say the least. It has long been true that if a car is required for high mileage duties that a diesel was the default choice but if it can be seen that there is little or no fuel cost difference or even a slight advantage in running a petrol car it drives a coach and horses through that theory.
I recognise that there are other reasons why one type of engine might be favoured or chosen over another but this really does change the rules.
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Humph - at that point, the choice comes down to preferred driving style , i.e. how the power is delivered. For high miles I'd still choose a diesel.
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Last night driving home through the Chicago 'burbs I saw gas at my local station is now at $1.99
Hard to believe that only a few months ago I was paying $4.35 at the same location
Have prices in the UK shown similar volatility? I seem to remember that they move up and down by a few pennies a litre at most. If not, why not?
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UK prices have shown nothing like that volatility due to the higher tax component of the pump price. We were paying about £1.20 per *litre* for Unleaded at the peak of the oil price spike. Now we're paying about 95p.
At current prices, roughly 65% of the pump price goes directly to the government in tax.
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At current prices roughly 65% of the pump price goes directly to the government in tax.
I recognize the huge tax component of petrol costs in the UK, but how does the tax explain a lack of volatility, unless they raise and lower the tax rate depending on the cost of the underlying commodity, to keep the end user price the same?
Edited by uk_in_usa on 20/11/2008 at 16:12
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Prices here down from about 1.20 GBP per litre a few months back to 0.95. They probably noticed demand didn't drop much when prices went up, so little incentive to cut prcies more than necessary to stay competitive locally.
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Of course the $1.99 is for a US Gallon? A bit smaller than ours bit still a big difference.
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In Dec 2005. when the oil price was the same as it is today, we were paying 88p/litre unleaded and 93p/litre diesel.. This time round it is 93p and 107p respectively. Robbing dogs. As the tax and duty is about the same, and the price of the product is only about 37% of the pump price, a 6p differential is about 20% higher in real terms.
Edited by Hamsafar on 20/11/2008 at 15:52
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Paid in 93.9 last night for UL at Sainsbury's, and it would have been 5p/l cheaper if I'd spent £50.00 in the shop beforehand.
Don't forget that the £ has fallen considerably against the US$ in the last few weeks.
Edited by oldnotbold on 20/11/2008 at 15:55
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Hamsafar,
I don't think it's all skulduggery, the exchange rate has changed pretty drastically since then, and oil is priced in US dollars - it's dropped from $2/£ to $1.50/£.
EDIT: sorry ONB, didn't see your last comment.
Edited by Gordon M on 20/11/2008 at 16:00
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Rip Off Britain; something must be done says Gordon Brown/Tony Blair. Rant, rant, rant, rant.
I approve of higher petrol prices. It might last a bit longer.
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Rip Off Britain; something must be done says Gordon Brown/Tony Blair. Rant rant rant rant. I approve of higher petrol prices. It might last a bit longer.
It wont. they charge what the market will stand, (they being the gov, opec and the oil co's)
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I note the price disparagy between petrol and diesel is now huge, nearly on the order of 20p in some places.
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That's because so much of our diesel has to be imported from the US, so the price is loaded due to exchange rate. We export petrol to them, so no cost penalty to us for that.
Again, it's down to the exchange rate, plus increasing demand for diesel in this country and low supplies of product in the US due to refinery damage after several hurricanes have hit key areas.
We should also remember that there is always a delay between falling crude prices and the pump price, as the crude oil prices quoted in the media are futures prices and don't reflect the cost of the oil purchased some time ago to fill the tanks in your local petrol station.
The reverse is also true, when crude prices increase it takes a while to filter through to the pumps, but the effect isn't so immediately obvious.
Of course, those of you who are convinced oil companies are out to get you will ignore all that and continue to whine about the prices. Remember, it's the tax that makes the stuff pricey, take that away and you'd see they're practically giving the stuff away for nothing.
Edited by TheOilBurner on 20/11/2008 at 16:56
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True to an extent, but we'll all seen petrol companies raising the price, for example, 2p/litre after the Budget when the changes aren't supposed to take effect for several months afterwards...
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90.9 at my local ASDA lastnight for UL.
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True to an extent but we'll all seen petrol companies raising the price for example 2p/litre after the Budget when the changes aren't supposed to take effect for several months afterwards...
"changes aren't supposed to take effect for several months afterwards." Who says?
AFAIK, duty changes announced on day of budget normally come in to effect at 6pm or thereabouts on day of the budget.
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As the tax and duty is about the same
It isn't the same.
In Dec 2005 a litre of unleaded costing you 88p consisted of:
Fuel duty 47.10p
VAT 13.10p
Petrol 27.8p
In Nov 2008 a litre of unleaded costing you 93p consists of:
Fuel duty 50.35p
VAT 13.85p
Petrol 28.8p
Of the 5p difference only 1p relates to the fuel the other 4p is tax.
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In Dec 2005. when the oil price was the same as it is today, .... , a 6p differential is about 20% higher in real terms.
In reply to Hamsafar Ashok Leyland:
In addition to the point by rjr, note that the operator's costs have risen faster than inflation since December 2005 [tanker drivers' wages, overheads, heating/lighting, etc. ].
Edited by jbif on 20/11/2008 at 18:18
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Been 89.9 here for UL for the last week - big pat on the back to my local Waitrose who appear to be just charging what they think is a fair price rather than getting involved with a price war. No local competition either - nearest competitor is the motorway services.
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From the BBC:
Oil prices have fallen below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2005 amid fears of a recession and expectations that demand will drop.
US light sweet crude fell to $49.06, while London-traded Brent crude fell to $48.90 a barrel.
The price of oil is around two-thirds cheaper than in July, when it hit a record above $147 a barrel.
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So, as oil falls back below $50, how do the prices we pay now for, unleaded, diesel, gas and electricity relate to what we were paying as oil went UP thru $50? A lot more I suggest! I also feel that, as a customer of a mulutinational domestic enery supplier, I am probably subsidising the French and the Germans. Mind you, we are in the EU so that is the way it is!
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Good news for us oil burners. According to Edmund King of the AA the heavy stuff is due to come down by 5-6p a litre over the next few days. I heard that on R2 fifteen minutes after sticking thirty five quids worth in at £101.9, which cheered me up no end as I could have hung on till Thursday if I'd have known.
I can't be the only one who thought the days of sub £1 fuel had gone forever when I was paying £1.35 in th summer.
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The £1.00 plus will be back in April next year or sooner if OPEC get their way later next week.
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Is it being so cheerful that keeps you going Mr X?
Under £1 at Morrisons already I was told earlier today.
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98p at my local Morrisons. I paid £1.41 at one point this year.
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"Unless you get.01p back"
Mr X what? It's 98p per litre and that's the price per litre. It has come down and may go back up. But fuel (diesel and petrol) has come down of late. What's the 0.01p back reference about?
Rob
Edited by rtj70 on 08/12/2008 at 23:08
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99.9. Unless you get.01p back in change, then you are paying £1.00
These short term gimmicks are not the answer. Listening to reports from OPEC today describing their shock at the fall from $147 a barrel to the present $42 made me angry.
At $147 they were getting a price that exceeded their wildest dreams and clearly managed to bank a very handsome profit. Yet a few weeks at $40 and they can't hide their glee at the cuts they propose in order to get it back up in the $100's. Boy how I wish we had something these people wanted and couldn't get elsewhere.
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hide their glee at the cuts they propose in order to get it back up in the $100's.
they wont - it wont sell and they need the money badly.
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Oh I get your point of wanting to buy only one litre and cannot get 99.9p worth. Have you tried getting just a litre anywhere from any pump in the last couple of decades? No?
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Sadly I did on Friday afternoon - when I topped up a nearly full tank (don't ask) at Tesco - had a very funny look but I paid my money.
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Morrisons, Tesco and Asda all next to each other in my neck of the woods. ( one square mile to be exact ) Normally it is the same price at all three , not due to a cartel, just a coincidence. Interestingly only morrisons have dropped this time ( 99.9) and the others have stood firm at £102.9.
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Yeah but Tesco have 5p per litre offer if you spend a few quid. So there's probably an internal subsidy..
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The £1.00 plus will be back in April next year or sooner if OPEC get their way later next week.
Its at times like this that OPEC realise what plonkers they are. They hoik the price of oil up and up till the economy squeeks and crashes into a hole and the market for oil collapses as does the price. Suddenly all the petro dollars they were used to spending disapears and they are left with debts and unrest,
they have done it four times so far since it was created - havent learned yet.
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they have done it four times so far since it was created - havent learned yet.
On the contrary, they have learnt that a bit of careful price management gives them a lot of power and a lot of money. A relatively small cut in output now, and the price is back up again, perhaps not to its speculator-driven peak, but well above its current floor.
A cut of 20% or so in output will probably be enough to double the price they get. Do the sums, AE, and figure which brings in more cash in the short term, 2 gallons at $1 each or 1.6 gallons at $2 each ... and which strategy keeps you in business forl;onger
And if you think its the oil price rises that caused the crash, try googling for "credit crunch".
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I can claim to have the most expensive derv in my tank at the moment. Went for a weekend in the Lakes on Friday. Had half a tank of derv on Thursday but topped it up to the brim before we went. Only trouble was...I topped it up with £34 worth of superunleaded !...very senior moment Drove the 200 yds home, got her back end up and syphoned the tank with some 10mm petrol pipe connected to a length of copper microbore. Went back to garage and put £64 worth of derv in. no problem with Vitara, just with wallet....wibble wibble.
Ted
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Just seen two filling stations selling diesel for 99.9 a litre.
Anyone seen fuel cheaper?
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