It depends on the engine. Some have a greater chance of expensive repairs than others. I ran a 1994 2.0l petrol Passat to over 240,000 on its original belt, only changing the tensioner pulley at around 150,000 when its whine warned me of imminent seizure. I ran a 1983 GL5 to over 190,000, only changing the belt at around 140,000 and then only because the water pump had started to leak and needed changing so it seemed silly not to. The belt looked as good as new. I ran a petrol 5V 2.8V6 Audi A6 to over 135,000 on the original belt - it looked perfectly OK on regular inspection. Our 15yr old Focus 1.6Zetec belt looks and sounds fine at 107,000m - and as the car is apparently worth little more than the price of a belt change I have no intention of changing it.
Most of the horror stories (and there are not many considering the 10s of thousands out there) relate to stressy diesels, engines with cheapjack pulleys, insensitive drivers not noticing warning smells/noises and cack-handed mechanics with expensive failures shortly after their efforts.
Modern 21st century belts are immensely strong - they are even used instead of chains to drive some powerful motorbikes!
So, follow the advice of the luddites, or think for yourself, do your homework and take a chance. Do you feel lucky, .....?
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