By 2030 there won’t be much else to buy, so as long as 80% of what is sold is zero emissions in use, no fines.
I’m keen to know if there are exemptions for low volume manufacturers like Caterham, or Gordon Murray Design (who are about to go to market with a brand new V12 (I heard it at Millbrook a few weeks ago - it sounds awesome)).
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By 2030 there won’t be much else to buy, so as long as 80% of what is sold is zero emissions in use, no fines
I really hadn't appreciated this at all. The reality is, the supply of ICE cars is going to be severely limited well before 2030, and the masses (I include myself) will be priced out of ICE cars.
Used ICE car prices will be even higher than they are now.
The only hope is that EV's become a lot more affordable in the next 3 or 4 years.
I know that hydrogen keeps getting mentioned, but that will take many years, before it can be rolled out across the UK.
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The 2nd hand market will boom even more, most people buy 2nd hand cars and always have.
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So what happens if hardly anyone buys a EV, do they still get fined ?.
The fine will be added onto the price of the car, so a 20 grand Polo becomes 35 grand. Probably be more than that, as there will be a lot less ICE's produced (economies of scale!).
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For anyone yet to look into EV ownership, specifically cost, run a few insurance quotes on EVs that might be suitable for you.
Make sure you're sitting down.
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It’s gone quiet on the ICE tax front. Did the tax on manufacturers for each g over 95g take effect? I recall it was going to be 95 euros per g over the 95g level but I might have misremembered.
if it applies it will further bump up ICE prices depending on manufacturers average their fleet and trade between themselves.
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By 2030 even the best ICE cars will be designs dating from pre 2020 - no manufacturer is going to spend a bean on their development bar a few superficial upgrades.
The effect of fines and lower production/sales volumes will be to increase costs making them increasingly uncompetitive. By contrast EVs will benefit from investment in and increasing economies of scale.
By 2030 manufacturers of ICE will sell only a small range of new but increasingly obsolete ICE for whom the term "petrol head" is an apt descriptor. The rest of use will have access to cheaper EVs with a vibrant s/h market then operating.
It is just possible that EV fires will become commonplace, EV insurance costs will continue to increase, recharging networks permanently congested with extended waiting times or a booking system. IMHO this is larger fearmongering largely unrelated to the likely outcome.
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It is just possible that EV fires will become commonplace, EV insurance costs will continue to increase, recharging networks permanently congested with extended waiting times or a booking system. IMHO this is larger fearmongering largely unrelated to the likely outcome.
How can it be fearmongering, EV fires are increasing, insurance co`s will make it more expensive to insure an EV because the car will not be repairable as battery fires render the car useless , and as yet not enough chargers about anyway
and I have doubts anyone will buy them if they have to wait hours for a charger, it has already been said, so far we have no batteries that can charge as quick as is needed/don`t give the range, and not likely to in the near future, and we do not have any way to get the power we need
so I suspect ice will be around somewhat longer than some expect, especially as the fuels being made are zero emission's
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Remote areas are going to be in trouble in an all-electric scenario, though in general those areas contribute to climate change hardly at all, and suffer negligable pollution.
I don't much fancy running out of juice in The Highlands in winter, though perhaps "winter" can now be regarded as SSOOO Last Century, ye ken
When I was teaching on a sustainable development course, to mostly African students, a couple of years ago, I involved my car in a couple of wee “alternative technology” projects, and would have done more along those lines given time and less opposition from the school.
Electric probably isn’t going to be practical in a lot of Africa, or in the Australian outback, (you could use solar but you’d have range issues) and when they stop making IC vehicles they might have to try and keep them going for as long as possible, maybe even eventually making their own fuel.
Electric seems predicated on an essentially urbanised environment with a sophisticated infrastructure, and perhaps will complete (or is even intended to complete) the rural depopulation that, in The Yook, started with the forced disposessions of The Enclosures Acts, by and for the rich.
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Electric probably isn’t going to be practical in a lot of Africa, or in the Australian outback
Not really going to be practical here with millions of charging points all over the place, without the cables having to be either run over ground, I cannot see them being run underground it will take forever...
and it has been mentioned that wind farms are not practical on the coast or inland due to costs of installation and servicing which will be needed to maintain the running gear and any faults that occur..
this going all electric is certainly not well thought out and appears to be a knee jerk reaction as they cannot think of anything else to do, not that I think they tried, a case of oh this will keep the public happy lets do this and hope it works
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You are right, in the article I just posted with a link to a EV page, they claim that 47% of uk chargers, and I do mean uk not just England, are in London. I do not know if this is true, but what is true, is that as stated the highlands of Scotland, Nth Wales or any long trip will not be possible with electric, because even if by some miracle you can get it charged where ever you go, it is the waiting time for getting onto the charger itself, and getting the thing charged. So you will have to plane extra days to just kill time in a place you might not have wanted to stay just for your car, compared with Diesel or petrol where your recharge time is about 10 mins.
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You are right, in the article I just posted with a link to a EV page, they claim that 47% of uk chargers, and I do mean uk not just England, are in London. I do not know if this is true, but what is true, is that as stated the highlands of Scotland, Nth Wales or any long trip will not be possible with electric, because even if by some miracle you can get it charged where ever you go, it is the waiting time for getting onto the charger itself, and getting the thing charged. So you will have to plane extra days to just kill time in a place you might not have wanted to stay just for your car, compared with Diesel or petrol where your recharge time is about 10 mins.
Battery swapping would fix that for the UK. We have a fully operational battery swapping system here in Taiwan for full size GOGORO e-scootersr taking 1 or 2 roughly gallon-sized cells that could probably be scaled up for a car,designed around it, (maybe 10 cells?) but AFAIK there is no plan to do that here. The local market would be too small, and the risk to the punter (who will risk a scooter purchase) too great.
Probably no good for truly remote areas though
Edited by edlithgow on 03/10/2023 at 10:57
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Battery swapping would fix that for the UK.
would be interesting to know if we did whether we could keep up with the volume of changes in a day, afaia China has drop in battery shops which are not able to keep up with the amount of cars coming in for battery changes, and not able to buy enough batteries in to keep up
even Tesla are having problems making the new 46-80 batteries though they are a different battery- even the standard apparently is causing problems I gather... I stand to be corrected on that as info was a bit vague
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Remote areas are going to be in trouble in an all-electric scenario, though in general those areas contribute to climate change hardly at all, and suffer negligable pollution.
I don't much fancy running out of juice in The Highlands in winter, though perhaps "winter" can now be regarded as SSOOO Last Century, ye ken
When I was teaching on a sustainable development course, to mostly African students, a couple of years ago, I involved my car in a couple of wee “alternative technology” projects, and would have done more along those lines given time and less opposition from the school.
Electric probably isn’t going to be practical in a lot of Africa, or in the Australian outback, (you could use solar but you’d have range issues) and when they stop making IC vehicles they might have to try and keep them going for as long as possible, maybe even eventually making their own fuel.
Electric seems predicated on an essentially urbanised environment with a sophisticated infrastructure, and perhaps will complete (or is even intended to complete) the rural depopulation that, in The Yook, started with the forced disposessions of The Enclosures Acts, by and for the rich.
Forgot my pithy quote
"The peasant with rights and a status, with a share in the fortunes and government of his village, standing in rags, but standing on his feet, makes way for the labourer with no corporate rights to defend, no corporate power to invoke, no property to cherish, no ambition to pursue, bent beneath the fear of his masters, and the weight of a future without hope. No class in the world has so beaten and crouching a history." (Hammond, 1911)
Done deal though, so further urbanisation probably not an objective, just collateral damage
Edited by edlithgow on 04/10/2023 at 03:46
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By 2030 even the best ICE cars will be designs dating from pre 2020 - no manufacturer is going to spend a bean on their development bar a few superficial upgrades.
You say that like its a BAD thing?
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Check out my article on this very matter.
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