I watched a video from Aussie motoring journo (and engineer) John Cadogan yesterday where he was reporting on the (seemingly highly likely) large increase in the cost of lithium and other rare earth components in EV batteries due to mining operations worldwide not being able to keep up with demand as governments legislate ICE out of the new car market earlier and earlier.

Liz Truss might not have been able to foresee this development, but I hope the rest of us would. Making EVs a primary means of global transport would need an awful lot of lithium, and the Chinese are world experts at buying into expected mining operations.

I watched some of this, and he makes valid points and there are complex arguments.

If you have an older car, with low mileage, it does not make sense environmently to replace it.

If people had a carbon quota, then people can decide how to spend it. Buying a meat, flying or a polluting car etc....

The problem with things like carbon quotas is that:

a) they are difficult to calculate (in terms of a reasonable 'limit' [especially iof you live in remote areas, have specific legitamate needs that unreasonably count against you, or don't have the means to change your behaviour] or how you actually calculate use).

I live in a leasehold flat and getting PV panels, heat pumps or EV chargers fitted is nigh on impossible due to space restrictions, the leases themselves and the sheer cost/disruption. What do I do? Pay more taxes to subsidise myself (losing a good portion to bureaucracy along the way)? There aren't enough well-off people to do this, and certainly NOT in the timeframes being pushed. Maybe 3-4x as long to do so organically;

b) like with carbon credits, the cost of going over and 'buying' extra is never enough to change the beahviour of the wealthy, because the 'penalties' are never big enough. Besides, rich people can easily afford to buy things that lower their score, like PV panels, EVs, etc, etc that the average person, and especially the poor, cannot.

All that will do is inpoverish the less well off, make them near 100% dependent on state welfare and make the rich even more so in comparison.

However, I do think it is important to go on the EV road. Until manufacturers put money into this, we don't know what innovations will come.

The combustion engine has had a hundred years of innovation.Perhaps electric cars, need time to mature.

Exactly, but then why are they being pushed so hard to replace ICE within 10 years? Contrary to what you read/see in the MSM, the world isn't going end or be irreparably damaged (or will cause millions of deaths) if we don't.

The combustion engine has had a hundred years of innovation.Perhaps electric cars, need time to mature.

They do - it's only been in the last few years that a lot of serious investment has been put in it. People expect perfection and cheap prices straight away and that is not going to happen - things take time.

Assuming a move to EV's will not be a world wide revolution, will there be fast business man/woman that will fill the gap with cheap used almost new ICE cars? or will gov of the day put a spanner?

They already exist, called car dealers. Don't forget that Car Supermarkets appeared in the 80's selling nearly new cars.

But once the sale of new ICE cars ceases in 2030 there will be no "nearly new" ICE cars available.

But if you want a "cheap" ICE car after 2030 there will no doubt be a load of dodgy garages out there willing to sell you one.

The EU have now announced that all cars and vans sold from 2035 must be zero emissions in use, mirroring the stance taken in the UK. No mention of hybrids in the decision, but a demand to lower co2 emissions by 55% by 2030.

But will the EU still exist in 2035 to enforce their diktat?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63457813

BritishVolt want a payment of ~£30m on a £3.8bn project.

This is just 1%. If they cannot cope with a problem of this size, they are doomed from the start. Has all the makings of another John DeLorean shambles.

Edited by Terry W on 31/10/2022 at 16:19