Just wondering in light of rising interest rates and energy prices.
Are used car prices going up or down?
Whilst we just missed a recession due to a revision by the ONS to one of the last two qurter's figures, I believe that the Western world (at least) is due for a VERY big recession brought on by the huge spending (on credit) of the pandemic and beforehand via unsustainably cheap credit.
Apparently the money supply in the West jumped hugely in the 6 months prior to the pandemic (no conspiracies there then) and many mortgage deals and higher (in relative terms) savings deals were already being withdrawn well before that.
QE (printing money via another name) from 2008 onwards basically kicked the the date of the big crunch (the recession back then was peanuts compared to what it shoud've been) down the road and it appears that late 2022 into 2023 is going to likely be when the you-know-what hits the fan.
Probably why all the globalist elites have been doing their utmost to forcably tranbsfer wealth and power from us to them over the the intervening period and especially the last 2 years, as well as them getting into land, commodities, food and pharma in a big way, pretending it's all for the benefit of the planet and our wellbeing rather than just theirs.
As such, the ordinary person's disposable wealth will be very low as a result of that and the cost of living crisis (which the 'elites' manufacured), the very real possibility of the ukraine war escalating and worries over jobs means that as the months go on, demand for cars will likely drop more and more. It won't matter that the supply side won't have been able to get back to pre-pandemic levels because demand will be far lower.
Assuming things don't dramatically escalate in Ukraine, then I'd speculate on the car (and housing) market dropping by between 20-40% in asking prices over the next 2-5 years. Second hand car prices will likely suffer more than new ones because they are less affected by the logisitcal issues.
I can't see things recovering to historical 'norms' until at least well into 2026, and only then if things go the right way in the US Presidential Election at the end of 2024.
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