Based on 2019 figures to avoid Covid distortions:
- 68m tons total oil use in UK
- 12m aviation
- 36m road transport
- 9m tons to industry, domestic, agriculture, commercial
- 7m tons non-energy uses - I assume plastics, chemicals etc
- 4m tons for refining
HGVs and buses take ~7-8m tons of the road transport - the balance is cars.
If the combined requirement for fuel is (say) 50m tons (road + air + agriculture), EVs will reduce oil demand by ~55% (28m tons). Industry, chemicals, plastics etc will not change.
Hydrogen may replace the remaining 45% of fuel users in time - although as batteries seem likely to get lighter and cheaper they will be fitted to an increasing number of freight vehicles.
Distribution logistics if/when driverless becomes a reality may change to favour smaller, lighter, electric vehicles and supplant HGVs - no driver constrained by tachograph!
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