After 9 years, the replacement hybrid battery on my BMW cost 7k, Boy that was a shock!
Batteries simply do not last forever, so it's a good idea to factor in a replacement, when considering long term ownership.
Gasp! who would buy a new hybrid as a keeper and worse a 5year old one say. Ok if you could drive it on the ICE only but what is the point? Who would buy a complicated 9 year old car?
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Any car that is 9+ year old with (possibly) 100k + on the clock is a mobile financial catastrophe waiting to happen. You buy one (a) because it is affordable/cheap, and (b) in the knowledge there is a risk.
The only real difference between ICE and EV is that ICE replacements can be sourced used but EV components (mostly) cannot. This is a short term problem - in a few years as designs stabilise and volumes increase, second hand components will be incrreasingly available.
Bleating about how ordinary people cannot afford EV is similarly a nonsense. Most folk buy and run second hand cars as they cannot afford new whether ICE or EV. As new EV sales increase, the second hand market will develop - simply lagging new sales by ~3 years.
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The only real difference between ICE and EV is that ICE replacements can be sourced used but EV components (mostly) cannot.
There's at least one company who are converting old classics to EVs, using (I presume) crashed Tesla parts.
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Watched a Fully Charged video on YouTube recently where Robert Llewellyn went to see an EV specialist because he was thinking about replacing the (worn out) battery on his 10 year old Leaf which, other than the range, still worked perfectly. The specialist gets the batteries from a company in the Netherlands who in turn took them out of Leaf's which had been crashed but who's batteries were undamaged. The battery Rob was looking at is the 40kWh rather than 24kWh which his Leaf had originally (direct swap apparently) and the cost would be £8.5k all in. Which sounds like a lot of money, but on a car which has cost virtually nothing to run over a decade, in relation to the cost of a new replacement car, maybe not too bad?.
Presumably the BMW hybrid battery mentioned was a brand new replacement from BMW?
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I wonder whether that specialist would guarantee their salvaged parts for a decent amount of time? Probably not anywhere near the original (battery) warranty I suspect.
I think that the only way EV cars are ever going to be worth buying when over 7-10 years old if when the batteries and many other parts are standardised, rather like modern-day PCs, whereby you choose the case and the components from a list and someone builds it for you.
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I wonder whether that specialist would guarantee their salvaged parts for a decent amount of time? Probably not anywhere near the original (battery) warranty I suspect.
No mention of warranty on the specialists (Cleevely electric vehicles) website, but the website for the Dutch company (Muxsan) supplying the batteries says it guarantees the battery to retain 90% capacity for 2 years or 30k miles (whichever comes first)
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Second hand parts, whether ICE or EV, will only ever be warranted for a few thousand miles or a few months from a decent s/h component supplier. With many I suspect the warranty is often difficult or impossible to enforce.
There is no reason why batteries or electric motors should be any more vulnerable to sudden failure than ICE components - in many ways less so as there are far fewer wear components.
The difference - batteries will suffer gradual "chemical" degradation whereas engines, gearboxes, fuel injectiion systems are more likely to suffer catastrophic failure. Turbos, injection pumps, main bearings etc (for instance) do not generally fail slowly!
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I also understand some companies are replacing single cells in batteries.
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I wonder whether that specialist would guarantee their salvaged parts for a decent amount of time? Probably not anywhere near the original (battery) warranty I suspect.
No mention of warranty on the specialists (Cleevely electric vehicles) website, but the website for the Dutch company (Muxsan) supplying the batteries says it guarantees the battery to retain 90% capacity for 2 years or 30k miles (whichever comes first)
For me at least, having such a short guarantee would not tempt me to part with my cash, given the potential cost of replacing the batteries should they suddenly fail after that period. Normally a warranty/guarantee period is generally indicative of how long the provider thinks they can still make a profit because the parts will last.
For me, this is still the biggest downside of EVs over ICE - if well-maintained, ICE cars will rarely need 4-figure spending (and certainly not in the range of £4.5k in one go), spreading out the cost of wear-and-tear/life-expired maintenance over many years.
I'm still surprised at why the depreciation of EVs after the 5 year mark isn't huge, given the longer it goes on without a full battery pack replacement (similar could be said for the electric motors [noting that electrically-driven water pumps tend to last on average about 15 years), the higher the chance of a complete failure or the range dropping to such a low point that the car is useless.
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For me at least, having such a short guarantee would not tempt me to part with my cash, given the potential cost of replacing the batteries should they suddenly fail after that period. Normally a warranty/guarantee period is generally indicative of how long the provider thinks they can still make a profit because the parts will last.
If you buy a brand new RangeRover, which could easily cost well over £100k, it will come with a 3 year warranty. So by comparison, for Muxsan to offer a 2 year warranty on what is essentially a 2nd hand battery is (IMO) very generous.
While there are course no absolutes, Nissan have been making EV's for a long time now, the battery technology is well proven and very reliable. The only real issue is degradation, which would also happen if you were to buy a new replacement battery from Nissan (and how much would that cost for a 40kWh?, £20k?) Personally, the only issue I would be wrestling with is whether or not spending that much money on a (up to) 10 year old Leaf would be a good investment.
For me, this is still the biggest downside of EVs over ICE - if well-maintained, ICE cars will rarely need 4-figure spending (and certainly not in the range of £4.5k in one go), spreading out the cost of wear-and-tear/life-expired maintenance over many years.
Doing some rough 'man maths', had I been running a Nissan e-NV200 van over a ten year period and decided to invest in a refurbished 40kWh battery, I reckon I'd probably still be £3-4k up on the running costs of my Caddy diesel over the same period. Granted the battery would have to be paid for in one go versus 'in instalments' for the Caddy running costs.
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Having read some fascinating and interesting replies, for me and my circumstances, these crazy repair costs and other factors are a nail in the coffin of an early switch to EVs.
Let me explain.
Firstly is cost. EVs cost way way too much. I run an X3, 4 years old, which cost £54k new, value today £30k-ish. To swap to the equivalent EV would cost around £65k. It's not happening.
Neither am I downsizing to some small battery powered go-kart which hasn't the seat or boot capacity of the X3. As approaching my age of three score years and ten, and semi-retired, I simply don't have that kind of spare money to pour into a depreciating asset powered by new technology.
I've worked hard in my lifetime and want to spend my pension and savings how I wish, not be forced down a particular avenue. And yes I am aware of the environmental aspects, but I dont see Governments working to eradicate Euro 3, 4 and 5 diesels from towns and cities. Clean air zone charging moves the problem elsewhere.
These quotes of repair costs are crazy, and unless manufacturers provide a far longer warranty on major components (or a refurbishment/exchange plan), then the prospect of expensive repairs will turn many off switching to an EV. If they want to make people switch, then it's up to manufacturers to many components not only reliable, but replacements affordable.
Next, I cant get excited by the range aspect on EVs. 250-280 miles before having to stop for a re-charge doesn't suit my driving or many others.Worse on 1st and 2nd gen EVs.
I visit remote places (eg: was in N Wales yesterday), few chargers. Plus there is charger reliability which is another issue altogether.
I am not a fan of EV design either. Bland, boring front ends and a damn great LCD screen on the dash, ideal for those on their way to Specsavers? Internal design is carp too, horrible and unsubtle use of white, cream or brightly coloured plastics. No, no, no! Why move from being 'conventional'? Only Polestar seem to remain conventional.
So now consider all this with the fact our wonderful Government is making gas boilers obsolete. I am fortunate to know three heating engineers, and all say the proposed heat pumps are rubbish and hydrogen is the future. Many properties are unsuitable for heat pumps and have no place externally for the main component - plus, you will need to install a hot water tank!! WTF? This is going backwards.
They are big and cumbersome, dont generate they same level of heat for the radiators - and you'll probably need new radiators and larger bore piping, so a full swap will cost around £20k. One engineer said he was called out to a new house, the owner desperate to cut his heating costs as the heat pump was costing him £190 per month. That's nuts.
Just where is the money going to come from to fund the car swap for the man in the street to an EV AND a heat pump?
As a pensioner, (and many on here are), it simply isn't going to happen - not in the way Government anticipates.
I am certainly dont intend on going into debt (nor leave a debt legacy on my estate) to fund these new fangled requirements of modern life. Not at my age.
Dont get me wrong. I love tech - I use a Apple computer, phone, iPad, watch, have a digital camera and lenses that would cost £6k to buy today, a drone, do electronic banking and more. But EV's dont quite cut it IMO, and neither do heat pumps.
Am I a bit of Dinosaur when it comes to EVs? You bet I am - (and I'm not Mike Rutherford under a pseudonym !!!)
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Am I a bit of Dinosaur when it comes to EVs? You bet I am - (and I'm not Mike Rutherford under a pseudonym !!!)
I just think you are a realist - EV's for a lot of people just are not suitable at the moment. They are developing very rapidly but are not there yet.
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For me at least, having such a short guarantee would not tempt me to part with my cash, given the potential cost of replacing the batteries should they suddenly fail after that period. Normally a warranty/guarantee period is generally indicative of how long the provider thinks they can still make a profit because the parts will last.
If you buy a brand new RangeRover, which could easily cost well over £100k, it will come with a 3 year warranty. So by comparison, for Muxsan to offer a 2 year warranty on what is essentially a 2nd hand battery is (IMO) very generous.
True, thought this issue raised here is geared towards people buying cars that are 7, 10 and perhaps a lot older, where the cost of purchasing the car (at least ICE ones) is normally in the £500 - £1500 range, hence why a failed battery pack just out of a 2yr warranty costing between 3x and 9x the car's worth would mean it would have to be either scrapped or sold for pennies, leaving that person (who could least afford to be) seriously out of pocket and unlikely to be able to afford a replacement vehicle.
While there are course no absolutes, Nissan have been making EV's for a long time now, the battery technology is well proven and very reliable. The only real issue is degradation, which would also happen if you were to buy a new replacement battery from Nissan (and how much would that cost for a 40kWh?, £20k?) Personally, the only issue I would be wrestling with is whether or not spending that much money on a (up to) 10 year old Leaf would be a good investment.
I wonder how long the electric motor lasts? They aren't cheap either (my car's electrically-powered PS hyraulic pump costs £700 last time I checked), and thus as the car ages, the likelihood of it failing gets higher and higher. This is where the use of standarised parts and, where possible, a modular design (to avoid the need for a complete unit replacement) would come in handy to reduce the cost of ownership as EVs get older.
The problem is that modern-day electronics is going the opposite way - making things 'all-in-one' to reduce initial manufacturing costs for the new equipment. It's why most home electronics are not worth repairing once they reach 7-10 years old, because other components are likely to fail within 2-5 years, with the overal cost more than buying a complete new unit.
For me, this is still the biggest downside of EVs over ICE - if well-maintained, ICE cars will rarely need 4-figure spending (and certainly not in the range of £4.5k in one go), spreading out the cost of wear-and-tear/life-expired maintenance over many years.
Doing some rough 'man maths', had I been running a Nissan e-NV200 van over a ten year period and decided to invest in a refurbished 40kWh battery, I reckon I'd probably still be £3-4k up on the running costs of my Caddy diesel over the same period. Granted the battery would have to be paid for in one go versus 'in instalments' for the Caddy running costs.
From what I gather, EVs are at the best when you do large mileages, because of the big difference in 'fuel' costs. For people like me who often do low annual mileages, then it likely wouldn't be worth it - for the moment anyway.
If EV manufacturers can find a way of making money via parts replacements even when said vehicles are well over 10 years past the end of production (i.e. outside the requirement ICE cars are given to hold spares) without breaking the bank for customers who are obviously on a very tight budget, plus the battery charging/capacity issues we've discussed at length before, then that's when the big switchover would naturally occur.
At the moment, I'm not sure that is the case, not without significant taxpayer subsidy, which means we don't benefit, just those who can currently afford the cars.
A shame those in positions of power and influence don't appear to be having such conversations, rather virtue-signalling and pandering to various groups and often for the wrong reasons, ending up making bad decisions costing us a fortune and not doing much to 'save the planet', if at all.
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Channel 4 tonight 8.30 The truth about electric. might be worth a watch!
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Channel 4 tonight 8.30 The truth about electric. might be worth a watch!
TBH their investigative journalism (I assumed you mean a 'Dispatches' show) is rather hit and miss - sometimes rather good, balanced and comprehensive, and other times, like many, it's just a rehash of what most people already know from newspaper reports, and occasionally, well, it wouldn't look out of place on the opinion pages of The Guardian newspaper.
I may well record it and judge later. Normally the 'headline' at the start of the programme is the best guide to what 'path' they go down, helping me decide whether it's worth continuing to watch or not.
I suspect they'll gloss over (or not even mention) many of the issues I and others have raised on this thread and others in the past, mainly because they aren't ones that generate lots of follow-up media attention.
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I watched the programme and I suppose it was quite informative for some. At the start it covered analysis of little know pollutants from ICE engines which at the moment are not the subject of any legislation. Basically it was saying that Hybrids can be more polluting than petrol or diesels from cold start. Next it covered EV chargers, shortage of, chargers not working and too many different types. It concluded with advice on charging which was try to keep the Battery on your EV between 80% and 20% to maximise its life and then went on to EV range with a 9 year old EV and a new MG. The conclusion on range the slower you go the further you go!
It did get me thinking with Hybrids that in cold weather perhaps there is the danger of the ICE not operating at optimum temperature if it is cutting on and off with the battery?
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The conclusion on range the slower you go the further you go!
It doesn't need Einstein to work that out.
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On Autotrader search for cars registered before 2020 (representing the current s/h market) today there are 929 BEV + a further 2626 PHEV..
There are 347,000 s/h cars in total. Pure electric are approx 1 in 300. Including hybrids about 1 in 100.
It is no surprise there is no developed s/h market. Prices reflect scarcity as much as economic value. No effective support and servicing capability exists outside the OEMs.
Fast forward - over the next 10 years sales of ICE will reduced from the current ~80% of tthe market to probably ~20% (hybrids will still be on sale). The speed of transition is open to debate/opinion - but if there are still about 350k cars for sale on 2031 Autotrader, I expect 100-150k to be BEV or PHEV.
However convinced you may be today that EV is not feasible, by 2030 it will be. You will either need to change your views, accept that you will be left driving your ICE until it dies, or reluctantly accept the inevitable (however reluctantly).
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One thing for sure about EVs is that anything you can buy today will be painfully and expensively obsolete by 2030.
Technology in electronics basically advances 10-100 times faster than mechanics.
It has taken the petrol car over 100 years to get to become a comfortable, non polluting vehicle which is reliable.
Electric car ranges have basically quadrupled form 2010 to 2021 (60 miles to 250+)
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"""However convinced you may be today that EV is not feasible, by 2030 it will be. You will either need to change your views, accept that you will be left driving your ICE until it dies, or reluctantly accept the inevitable (however reluctantly)."""
I am not convinced. the roll out of chargers is not being driven hard enough and I cannot see most intelligent people buying into expensive electric or hybrid when out of warranty. As to his plans for the end of gas boilers the UK will need climate change to give us a Mediterranean climate as I am freezing my socks off already!
I do not think that Peppa Pig's favourite fan will be in the job much longer and we may see someone with more sensible longer term ideas. He has been bombed out on his tunnel or bridge to Ireland as if any body thought it was feasible and seems hopelessly lost with all his other plans. A very big disappointment to a lot of people who voted for him
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I can’t see how the secondhand ev market is going to develop, various reports suggest batteries will last between 10 & 20 years so who is going to buy a 10 year old ev with no idea how many years are left in the battery? and if they are not a viable buy what will happen to these cars? Battery price will eventually come down but they will still remain an expensive item.
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You may equally ask who would buy a 10+ year old ICE not knowing when the engine was going to seize, run its bearings, destroy its piston rings etc.
When major components on old cars fail the car either gets scrapped or fitted with second hand replacements. The same will be true of batteries and electric motors.
The difference - batteries tend to degrade gradually and electric motors have few moving parts. ICE is full of bearings and reciprocating parts, much more likely to fail suddenly, but with (currently) a developed repair and spares infrastructure.
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He has been bombed out on his tunnel or bridge to Ireland as if anybody thought it was feasible, and seems hopelessly lost with all his other plans. A very big disappointment to a lot of people who voted for him.
Of course I didn't vote directly for Boris, but I am not in the least disappointed, altho I did hope for a few months that he might grow out of his buffoon habits and take political life a bit more seriously. I am not surprised that he hasn't, so as far as that goes, I am not disappointed, merely sad that too many voters expected something better.
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The conclusion on range the slower you go the further you go!
It doesn't need Einstein to work that out.
We should all be buying milkfloats! :-)
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I watched the programme and I suppose it was quite informative for some. At the start it covered analysis of little know pollutants from ICE engines which at the moment are not the subject of any legislation. Basically it was saying that Hybrids can be more polluting than petrol or diesels from cold start. Next it covered EV chargers, shortage of, chargers not working and too many different types. It concluded with advice on charging which was try to keep the Battery on your EV between 80% and 20% to maximise its life and then went on to EV range with a 9 year old EV and a new MG. The conclusion on range the slower you go the further you go!
It did get me thinking with Hybrids that in cold weather perhaps there is the danger of the ICE not operating at optimum temperature if it is cutting on and off with the battery?
I haven't seen it yet, but when I set my PVR to record it, I noticed it was only a 30 min programme. To me, that's not long enough to properly go through all the issues associated with EVs.
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It did get me thinking with Hybrids that in cold weather perhaps there is the danger of the ICE not operating at optimum temperature if it is cutting on and off with the battery?
I know the Prius engine has several electronic thermostats to control the heating of the engine, so it doesn`t get too cold over parts of the engine, if one section gets too cold while running the stat shuts coolant off until the temp is reached and then stat opens according to rest of engine, it keeps engine at optimum running temp which probably means once batteries are charged the electric generated runs the motor/s
Maybe other OEMs have done the same?
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