I suspect a lot of the discrpancies even between cars from the same make are due to the differences in tyre circumference - it may well be (for example) that a particular model in general is set up for 205/55 R16 tyres, but higher end models may be shod with lower profile 17in or 18in tyres, which by law can vary up to 2% in their rolling circumference from the original one that the car's odometer etc was calibrated on.
Whether makes do this for just one or representative wheel and tyre combos across a model range or every combination of wheel and tyre fitted when new, I'm not sure. I suspect the former.
In addition, as has been said, odometers , like speedos, are probably calibrated to slightly over-read and are also affected by the small variation due to tyre wear.
The brim-to-brim method is fine only if you use it on an overall total basis like I do, i.e. keep a running total of miles and fuel used up to your last fill up and calculate the mpg based on that alone. My Mazda3 1.6 petrol averages 40.5mpg over the year, varying from mid 30s in town/winter to as much as 46 on long runs in late spring or early autumn when the A/C or heater isn't required.
Mine gets higher than the HJ Real MPG figure because a) I'm a light-footed driver (not slow) and b) the vast majority (distance wise) of my driving is done on dual carriageways, motorways and fast-flowing single carriageway roads.
From reading up on the subject, and it appears that it affects some VAG petrol engines and mostly those earlier generation TSi/FSi engines, that significant improvements in mpg were, initially at least, at the expense of far heavier usage of oil - I remember seeing people write in to HJ's column and on the Good and Bad section of the reviews about such VAG turbo petrol cars regularly having to have oil top ups, some even every 1000 miles.
I believe John Cadogan has done a technical video on his YT site about what they did in this regard. I suspect that most of the more serious 'issues' regarding excessive oil use have now been resolved, as reports of such problems on the newer generation TSi engines seems to have reduced significantly. Its likely nowadays to be a small trade off (a small about, if any) of oil top ups required against 10%+ better mpg (as well as better responsiveness of the engine) than a N/A engine of equivalent performance.
Even if the OP's figures use the trip computer and its even 10% inaccurate (high), that would still mean they are achieving 38-39mpg, barely different to what I am in a smaller, lighter (100kg) car with a 1.6 N/A petrol engine that produces 30% higher CO2 emissions (test figures).
Admitedly VAG's TSi petrol engines are probably the best on mpg across turbo petrols (as they've been making such smaller capacity engines far longer than most other makes), blending both performance, mpg and low emissions (no defeat devices for them), Fords and Vauxhalls not so good on the mpg front with other makes in between.
It also shows progress in R&D that my old K11 (mid 90s) Nissan Micra 1.0 petrol had a listed ave. mpg of about 47mpg, again, under similar driving conditions, I managed to achieve 52mpg, but that's not much better than many C-sector cars achieve now, and the Micra only weighed about 750-800kg as opposed to 1200-1400kg for most current C-sector cars, and whose performance even with a relatively light right foot absolutely smokes the Micra.
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