Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Used Market Petrol vs Diesel Study

With ever rising fuel prices theres more incentive than ever to switch to a diesel car. The higher prices of diesels have led to many studies by reliable motoring magazines into the 'payback time' for new diesels in comparison to petrol models. I have now decided to look at the slightly lower end of the market at cheaper, used cars to see how both are faring and the costs and potential savings involved detailed and examined.

The Survey

In this survey ive taken an example in five different sectors of vehicle. Family hatchback, city car, estate car, MPV and luxury saloon to investigate the differences between petrol and diesel models on the used market.

I have searched Auto Trader and other outlets to find two cars of the same make, model, age, spec etc as possible, find an excellent example which seems bang on the average used price for it and compared it directly to the same car with the opposing fuel type. I will take the purchase price, yearly tax, insurance and projected fuel costs into account to examine what it will cost over three years to run these cars in those criterias.

Numbers

Obviously its impossible to tailor this to everybody but to give us an idea im going to use insurance quotes obtained for me, working on a basis of 10,000 miles a year. For the fuel price section i am working on an unleaded price of 139.9p per litre and a diesel price of 144.9p per litre. When fuel cost numbers come out at slightly under a round number i shall round up, so if something comes to £1398 i will call it £1400 for example. For working out fuel costs i will take the official average mpg figure and knock a few off it, if it claims 42mpg i'll work on a basis of 38, for example. When 'total cost' is listed, this will include the purchase price, as we try and work out how long it will take a diesel to 'make back' the outlay.

I will only use examples from dealers, trade ads. All cars will be in very good condition, no Cat C or D examples will be used for the purposes of the test. And all cars have full MOT's and warranties provided.

The Cars

Ok lets kick off with one of the lands most popular cars, the Ford Focus. This is the kind of car that many families buy.

Ford Focus Test

Petrol Model

I have found for sale the following car:

Ford Focus, 2007 (07), Petrol, 5door 1.6litre Zetec hatchback with 37,000 miles in Silver. I found this car at an approved used dealer for £5,200

Insurance Group: 6 VED Band: G

Insurance: £248 VED: £165 Fuel: £1680

Total Cost, Year One: £7300, Year Two: £9400, Year Three: £11,500

Diesel Model

I have found the following car for sale:

Ford Focus, 2007 (07), Diesel, 5door 1.6litre Zetec hatchback with 42,000 miles in Blue. I found this car at a car supermarket for £6,800

Insurance Group: 6 VED Band: D

Insurance: £283 VED: £95 Fuel: £1270

Total Cost, Year One: £8440, Year Two: £10,080, Year Three: £11,720

Notes: After three years the Diesel will still be behind the petrol but only very marginally, a yearly mileage of 15k would obviously see the diesel ahead by this point. Despite being in the same insurance group the diesel was 14% more to insure which for me makes little difference but to others a 14% premium can be alot of money, so watch out for that. Its also worth noting there were twice as many petrol models to choose from in these criteria's than diesel models.

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Toyota Yaris Test

The excellent small city car from Toyota, rock solid reliability, good looks and supposedly low cost to run. Lets put it to the test.

Petrol Model

I found the following car for sale

Toyota Yaris, 2008 (08), 1.3litre petrol 3 door hatchback in blue with 24,000 miles. I found this car at a franchised Toyota dealer for £5,400

Insurance Group: 4 VED Band: C

Insurance: £248 VED: £30 Fuel: £1500

Total Cost, Year One: £7200, Year Two: £8980, Year Three: £10,760

Diesel Model

I found the following car for sale

Toyota Yaris, 2008 (08), 1.4litre Diesel 3 door hatchback in Grey with 26,000 miles. I found this car also at a Toyota dealer for £7,000

Insurance Group: 4 VED Band: C

Insurance: £248 VED: £30 Fuel: £1180

Total Cost, Year One: £8460, Year Two: £9920, Year Three: £11,380

Notes: Insurance remains the same in the same Ins group unlike the Focus. After three years the diesel remains £620 more expensive. These types of cars are typically bought by people doing lower mileages which suggests it'd be many years for the diesel to pay for itself in that case. There were a staggering ten times more petrols to choose from than diesels in this case.

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Skoda Octavia Estate Test

For the Estate car section of the test ive picked one of Avant's favourite, the Skoda Octavia. Well known for providing good value for money and dependable running costs. Lets put its money where its mouth is.

Petrol Model

I found the following car for sale

Skoda Octavia Estate, 2008 (08), Ambiente, 1.6litre Petrol with 33,000 miles in Silver. This car at a Skoda dealer is priced at £7,500

Insurance Group: 7 VED Band: G

Insurance: £245 VED: £165 Fuel: £1720

Total Cost, Year One: £9630, Year Two: £11,760, Year Three: £13,900

Diesel Model

I found the following car for sale

Skoda Octavia Estate Ambiente, 2008 (08), 1.9litre Diesel with 39,000 miles in Silver. This car at the same Skoda dealer is priced at £8,400

Insurance Group: 7 VED Band: E

Insurance: £275 VED: £115 Fuel: £1320

Total Cost, Year One: £10,110, Year Two: £11,820, Year Three: £13,530

Notes: The larger 1.9litre is in the same ins group as the 1.6 but still comes out at around 12% more which is good value compared to the earlier Focus. After three years both examples are very close together as the Skoda makes up the gap very well. Perhaps its no co-incidence then this is the first of the tests where there are more diesels than petrols, twice as many, in fact.

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Vauxhall Zafira Test

There has to be a people carrier in this test im afraid but stick with me. The Zafira is a very popular car in Britain and buyers have alot of choice so lets put them to the test.

Petrol Model

This car for sale

Vauxhall Zafira 2007 (07) 1.8litre Energy trim in blue with 31,000 miles, Petrol. This car at a car supermarket was found for £5,995

Insurance Group: 8 VED Band: H

Insurance: £261 VED: £190 Fuel: £1870

Total Cost, Year One: £8320, Year Two: £10,640, Year Three: £12,960

Diesel Model

This car for sale

Vauxhall Zafira 2007 (07) 1.9litre CDTi in Energy trim in silver with 54,000 Miles. This car at a car supermarket was found for £7,400

Insurance Group: 7 VED Band: H

Insurance: £280 VED: £190 Fuel: £1570

Total Cost, Year One: £9440, Year Two: £11,480, Year Three: £13,520

Notes: Large gap in mileage between comparible models and still a significantly higher diesel price. Lower insurance group on larger diesel engine but cost more to insure. Same VED Band for both, bad mark to Vauxhall there on emissions standards. There were twice as many petrol models to choose from, with wider variety of spec and far lower miles than the rarer diesel models.

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Mercedes Benz E Class Test

Lets look at the more luxury end of the market to see if the information gathered so far also applies here. The E Class is one of the worlds most popular luxury saloons so should provide a good idea on the impact of both fuel types on the used market for these cars.

Petrol Model

This Car for sale

Mercedes Benz E280 Avantgarde 2007 (07) Saloon, Automatic, petrol with 47,000 miles in Black. I found this car for sale from an approved used dealer for £13,500.

Insurance Group: 17 VED: K

Insurance: £634 VED: £260 Fuel: £2270

Total Cost, Year One: £16,665, Year Two: £19,830, Year Three: £22,995

Diesel Model

This car for sale

Mercedes Benz E280 Avantgarde 2007 (07) Saloon, Automatic, Diesel with 50,000 miles in Black. I found this car at a franchised dealership for £13,500, the same as the petrol.

Insurance Group: 16 VED: J

Insurance: £630 VED: £245 Fuel: £1930

Total Cost Year One: £16,305, Year Two: £19,110, Year Three: £21,915

Notes: With identical purchase price its obvious the diesel will cost less. Lower insurance group. Interestingly there were TEN times more diesel models to choose from than petrols which will probably explain why this bucks the trend of the rest of the test.

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Conclusions Of course its impossible to draw any definite conclusions as theres so many variables. Broadly theres not much here we dont already know, the higher the mileage = diesel more worth it and things like that. Its interesting that in some cases the insurance for the diesel is more than the petrol despite same displacement and insurance group. That 14% extra for the Focus could add significantely more to a younger drivers premium in their first couple of years for example. Its perhaps unsurprising that for cars where theres more diesels than petrols the long term price gap is closer than in cases of it the other way around, such as in the Skoda and Mercedes tests.

We can never draw a definite conclusion, someone out there will find a bargain diesel at the same price as a similar petrol that ive listed here im sure and everyone should always buy whats best for them and whats the best deal. Its interesting to note increasing reliability issues with diesels and with the savings sometimes not drastic over petrols this information could tempt people to consider the possibly more reliable petrol models more, especially in cases of cars with DPF's etc Also in some cases it appears the savings gap between the two fuel types narrows as the car gets older, perhaps thats obvious as well but its nice to investigate. Overall theres more used petrols than diesels out there, as diesel has only really caught on mainstream in the last 5-10 years. When that ratio one day shifts i think the petrol v diesel arguments will be redundant as simple rule of extra supply meaning firmer competition driving prices down, even with rising demand (can demand for diesels rise any higher?) should engineer lower prices.

I hope this has been worthwhile.

Thanks for reading.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - arnold2

I suppose the 'extra' to consider here is the increased cost of actually running a diesel nowadays - DPF, EGR, DMF, all of which cost £1,000k to fix when going wrong......

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - veryoldbear

I can't prove it, but there seems to have been a distinct change in diesel reliability in 2005 when they went from Euro III to Euro IV.

Our household needs at least one good motorway barge that will convey us (usually plus furniture, garden refuse, building materials, and all the stuff of life) in comfort and reliability for upwards of 20,000 miles per year. At the moment we have a very high mileage Saab 95 2.2TID estate, which is admittedly a bit underpowered, but has an agricultural chain-cam Euro III engine that rattles on.

I am very uncertain as to whether I should go for a modern Euro IV barge, which will probably have a rubber-band cam drive that needs regualr and expensive replacement, a DPF system (although I do enough motorway miles for Italian tuneups), probably a DMF, and a quantity of impossible electronics.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Leaving out the identically priced Mercedes, only the Skoda makes up the difference and is in the black by year three but not by much. With the Focus a higher mileage would see it in the black by year three but on a DPF model all it'd need is for that to go bang and entire saving is wiped out.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Big John

Autoexpress recentley did a similar study on new Petrol/Diesel cars taking into account depreciation, servicing, insurance , fuel etc... but not DPFs! Comparing a Skoda Octavia 2.0 diesel and an equivalent 1.4tsi. The petrol was cheaper unless you did more that 31000 miles/year! When you consider the 1.4tsi is chain cam and doesn't have a DPF (yet!) I think I know where my money would go.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Yes plenty of outlets have done studies on new cars and the Skoda example you give there is quite stunning. Its interesting to see how the gap closes as the cars get older. I decided to do this when i was comparing running costs of the Prius i reviewed to a 1.6 TDCi Fiesta on 56 plate and discovered on my mileage, the Prius would save me just £75 over three years. Obviously they're different sorts of cars and the Fiesta was £2k less to buy.

I think, looking at this its probable my next car will be a petrol model as typically you can get a better deal on a lower mileage car but the one thing which could be off putting is possible difficulty of selling on. We dont know what fuel prices will be like in three years time, it appears currently that the Government largely isnt going to do anything tax-wise on it (which is a start) but even so.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Avant

Thank you very much for sharing your experience and expertise with us, Jamie.

Some of it as you'd expect confirms generally-held views, but what it highlights is the importance of looking carefully at the particular model you want to buy and making the comparison based on that model.

It's also worth bearing in mind that finance, although an essential consideration, isn't the only one in car buying. Where the equivalent petrol engine is at its best at high revs, the low-down torque of the diesel may be tempting.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

No problem Avant im happy to bore the forum with long posts, i tried to keep it concise and to the point though.

It does highlight importance of comparing between models, what isnt detailed here is that if you dont have a particular car in mind these comparisons can become redundant. If you just need to get a car, any car, which goes and stops particularly on a budget its worth looking at both fuel types, the lowest mileage best condition cars which fit the requirements close to your location, if a diesel happens to fit the bill then by all means go for it. At bottom end prices, slightly older diesels even with high miles can make more sense.

You're right that the pure numbers arent the only consideration, but a large chunk of peoples reasoning for looking for a diesel car is the assumption that they will save money. Personally i prefer a petrol engine and always have done, i prefer the more quiet, smoother running and these days perhaps even more reliable petrols to diesels. Diesel has come on leaps and bounds in recent years in terms of noise and quality, its just a shame the bulldozing of EU emissions regulations in terms of DPF's etc has ruined the progress and spoiled a diesels hallmark plus point - reliability.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - bazza

Very useful post and confirms what I've been thinking too. I currently run a Euro 3, noisy, rough tdi, but will probably change it for a petrol engined estate sometime in the next year or two - for all the same reasons described above. One of the big unknowns is what Euro 6 will do to the cost of diesels - there are a few engineering articles about on the web which predict that the cost of achieving Euro 6 emission control will significantly add to the price difference between petrol/diesel models, making small cars not really cost effective at all with diesel motors, and the diesel market becoming confined to the larger/luxury end of the market. I suspect that may be why we are seeing a lot of development with small capacity petrol turbos such as VAG's tsi range. Of course the disadvantage for us owners is the complexity and still relatively unproven durability of these units.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Dutchie
We are heading soon in the future in my opinion for sealed engines.Cannot be worked on unless its a computer diagnostic thingy.I drive a diesel at the moment car will be changed in two years.Might have a look at the hybrid Toyota or back to petrol problaby Mitsubishi again.I still miss my M/Space star lovely 1.6 petrol engine.Car was a bit wobbly on corners but overall ok.The Ford Focus 1.6 TDCI we have now is on lease (Motability) I don't think I would buy one the dreaded DPF.And I like a auto again which was excellent in the Honda Jazz.
Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - veryoldbear

We're there already ...

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Big John

Er It sounds like Euro 6 will complicate things further. Petrol cars may also end up with some sort exhaust filter.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - daveyjp

Most new diesels already meet Euro VI - it was achieving this which led to the end of the VW PD diesels. They could achieve Euro V, but not VI, new CR meets Euro VI.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Roly93

I dont think these calculations fully take into account the better residuals of diesel variants of the same model frankly, after 3 years this can be quite significant on some cars.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Yes thats a good point and that has been noted a few times, but both models will depreciate. Especially cars like the Focus and Zafira which drop like a stone the moment they get a number plate on them, by four years old they've lost the biggest chunk of their value anyway. Someone buying a four year old Zafira doesnt buy it for the resale value.

The Mercedes on the other hand holds up extremely well with that considered.

Edited by jamie745 on 11/09/2011 at 19:31

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Big John

The Autoexpress article did take depreciation into account

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Yes but wasnt the autoexpress article looking at new cars? Where for cars like a Focus depreciation will be a major cost if you buy it new. I think people have missed the point i was trying to make, this isnt about new cars, this is used cars. Four year old cars have lost the main of its depreciation, especially common hatchbacks and MPV's and its harder to judge what a four year old car today will be worth at seven years old than to judge a new cars value three years from now.

And this is also about how much it costs to run the cars, depreciation is only relevant if you ever plan to sell it. Thats the only time it comes into the equation, this study was about running cars not selling them. For people who want to buy a car and own it, depreciation doesnt matter. And depreciation happens on all cars, its not something which empties your wallet everyday though like servicing, insurance, fuel, tax etc does.

Edited by jamie745 on 11/09/2011 at 20:15

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Bobbin Threadbare

A* Jamie. Can you add some ridiculous ones now; a TVR Cerberus or something?

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Do they make a diesel of that?

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - LikedDrivingOnce

Thanks, Jamie, for taking the time and trouble to do the research and publish the results on this thread. Excellent effort!

The masterstroke, IMHO, was looking at used cars. The car magazines all go after new cars, and assume that you'll trade it in after three years. Companies may do this but how many private buyers fit this model nowadays?

Very nice feedback from everyone else as well. Top thread, this! :-)

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Bobbin Threadbare
Companies may do this but how many private buyers fit this model nowadays?

True enough! If you look at what people have come on here asking about; the 'what shall I get?' threads, it's usually £4k-ish used vehicle.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Thanks for your feedback. I think 'masterstroke' is a little strong but im a person who thrives on ego and i'll take it :)

The sort of person who nowadays says 'i'll get a diesel car' is usually someone looking to save money, so by definition cant afford a brand new car so alot of the magazines tests, albiet interesting arent that useful to the second hand buyer. The person buying a 3-4 year old car or older, is diesel worth it? Well if you want a Skoda estate then yes it would definately appear so.

I think Ford and Vauxhall have come out of it looking the worst, Ford with their 14% extra insurance (not Ford's fault i know but money is money) in the same insurance group as well as documented DPF failures on post 2008 Focus'. Vauxhall have scored poorly on VED and choice of good diesel cars, petrol all the way on them as theres fine examples even cheaper than the one i selected.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Good point Bobbin, only one thread recently has enquired about buying a new car and doesnt even know what car he wants! Most what-car? threads are on a budget for used vehicles. I just hope nobody shelled out on a diesel Zafira and is now reading this!

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - TeeCee

I just hope nobody shelled out on a diesel Zafira and is now reading this!

That'd be the least of their problems. Zaffy oil-burners have something of a reputation for eating gearboxes.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Big John

- and lunching engines after filling the sump full of diesel during dpf regen cycles.........

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Big John

Agreed,

But it interesting that as new comparing the Octavia 1.4tsi petrol & 2.0diesel your need to drive 31000 miles /annum to benefit from the diesel. Presumable if you buy used the difference would be even greater as the Petrols depreciate more so should be even cheaper to buy.

I do about 16k/year so tend to effectively throw cars away so depreciation after purchase is usually not important. I generally source cheap cars new or fairly new that will last me 10 years. E.G. currently 2003 Skoda Superb 1.9pd at 18months old for 8k now 120k with no real problems(only new alternator).

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - runboy

Interesting stuff. I've been looking at Volvo S60's so did the test on their figures - not scientific but an indicator. So diesel works out cheaper by £1600 but I admit the cars are not 100% like for like - the petrol is slightly newer and a model up so I expect the difference would probably be £800-£1k less. So is it worth having diesel over petrol for the sake of a couple of hundred £'s per year? Probably down to personal choice and if you want the more power of a diesel over the smoothness of the petrol.

At the moment there are some bargains to be had with big petrol cars that means the purchase cost can far outweigh the increase in fuel consumption and VEL. For example at a Volvo dealership there is a 2.5T auto S80 for about £8.5k. So a bigger, more powerful car than the petrol S60 example below for £2.5k less (similar milage and spec). You can even find the 4.4 V8 Volvo S80's for about £9/10k but that would really raise the petrol costs. In fact I've also included the S80 2.5T costs at the end of this post and it works out marginally more expensive than the smaller, lower powered S60 - that £2.5k saving on the cost price makes a lot of difference. Once you hit the £445 VED you may as well go for the bigger models and save on the initial purchase cost.

Volvo S60 Test

Petrol Model

I have found for sale the following car:

Volvo S60, 2008 (08), Petrol, 4 door, 2.0litre, Automatic, SE Lux model, 31,000 miles at Volvo dealership with approved warranty for £10,000, 27mpg

Insurance Group: Unkown VED Band: L

Insurance: £322 VED: £445 Fuel: £2356

Total Cost, Year One: £13123, Year Two: £16246, Year Three: £19369

Diesel Model

I have found the following car for sale:

Volvo S60, 2007 (07), Diesel, 4 door, 2.4 litre, Automatic, SE model, 34,000 miles at Volvo dealership with approved warranty for £10,000, 34mpg

Insurance Group: 40 VED Band: J

Insurance: £400 VED: £245 Fuel: £1937

Total Cost, Year One: £12582, Year Two: £15164, Year Three: £17746

Difference - Diesel saves £1623 over petrol at the end of 3 years.

Petrol Model (no2 for the fun of it!)

I have found for sale the following car:

Volvo S80, 2007 (07), Petrol, 4 door, 2.5litre, Automatic, SE model, 32,000 miles at Volvo dealership with approved warranty for £8,491, 26mpg

Insurance Group: 33 VED Band: L

Insurance: £338 VED: £445 Fuel: £2442

Total Cost, Year One: £11716, Year Two: £14941, Year Three: £18166

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - Roly93

And this is also about how much it costs to run the cars, depreciation is only relevant if you ever plan to sell it. Thats the only time it comes into the equation, this study was about running cars not selling them. For people who want to buy a car and own it, depreciation doesnt matter. And depreciation happens on all cars, its not something which empties your wallet everyday though like servicing, insurance, fuel, tax etc does.

Thats like saying air is only relevant if you're planning to breathe ! How many people buy a car and run it till scrapping, resale price is always important.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - madf

Ignoring depreciation makes a mockery of the figures: sorry as otherwise it's very good.

And as many smaller diesels cars have depreciated little or even appreciated as fuel prices rose over the past two years, it makes the comparisons just plain meaningless...

Try selling a petrol Jag or Mondeo after 5 years versus a diesle one.. Big petrol cars are a drag on the market. Small modern petrol cars are a different case.

Used Market Petrol v Diesel Study - jamie745

Thats like saying air is only relevant if you're planning to breathe ! How many people buy a car and run it till scrapping, resale price is always important.

No sorry i dont agree with that. Most people who buy a used car then trade it in against something else, they dont sell it themselves and the deal you'll get doing that can vary greatly depending on the dealer, car and your ability to negotiate a good deal so thats impossible for me to quantify here anyway as it depends on too many variables.

To use your analogy that air is only relevant if you plan to breathe, which is something you do all of every day then to match that up here you're saying you would sell the car every day, which i somehow doubt you do. Air is something you need all of every day, depreciation doesnt affect you every day, its not something which costs you money every day is it?

Ignoring depreciation makes a mockery of the figures: sorry as otherwise it's very good.

And as many smaller diesels cars have depreciated little or even appreciated as fuel prices rose over the past two years, it makes the comparisons just plain meaningless...

Again, i was looking at what it costs to run them, not to sell them. If you want me to do a study on 'the best cars to buy now and sell in three years time' i'll gladly do that. As i said earlier its easy to judge what a new car will be worth when its three years old but we're looking at 3-4 year old cars here, which at 7 years old its hard to predict what they'll be worth. We can safely say both variants will be worth less than they are now, and at that age it gets into the phase where its less to do with base figures and more to do with condition and service history. Most people keep a car for around three years and on average the study shows on 10k a year the diesel could cost you around £600 more, now if you could sell the diesel for £600 more than you could sell the petrol then you'd broken even i suppose.

Try selling a petrol Jag or Mondeo after 5 years versus a diesle one.. Big petrol cars are a drag on the market. Small modern petrol cars are a different case.

As was shown by the Yaris test yes. Its also worth noting in instances where theres more diesels than petrols the prices are closer together. The point is, going by calculations like this, should they be a drag on the market? We've shown here that in these cases things like a diesel Focus on average mileage doesnt save you money compared to the petrol. What we also know is the DPF's etc fitted to newer diesels are highly likely to go wrong and cause expensive problems, that could easily wipe out the saving even on a higher mileage. So the point is, should the petrol be a drag on the market?

I feel currently it is, because not enough people know information like this. The 'buy a diesel, you'll save money' assumption is so drilled into the national conciousness now that you're right it will be hard to flog a petrol car, more out of assumption and prejudice rather than any real maths or fact though. And when the DPF problems and whatever hell Euro 6 throws at us becomes more common, widespread and common knowledge, i wouldnt be so sure that petrols are a total lemon.

Bare in mind if you're selling cars at 7 years old you're selling to people usually with less money and people who have long term reliability in mind and future sale price isnt first priority on their list, those customers could be put off by the threat of £1000 DPF failure.

Edited by jamie745 on 12/09/2011 at 14:28