Oil *production* peaked in the 70s.
Peak oil doesn't mean it suddenly runs out after you reach the peak - it just means there is less and less to go round.
Also worth remembering that as the price rises, some oil which is currently too expensive to extract suddenly becomes worth extracting, so the descending 'tail' of the peak can be very long.
We're past the peak, but it will probably never run out completely, just get more and more scarce.
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Oil *production* peaked in the 70s.
I think you mean oil discovery peaked in the 70s? Which it did. Oil production has not peaked globally yet, although it peaked in the US in the early 70s, in the UK North Sea in 1999 and the Norwegian North Sea in 2001. Many other major oil producers and exporters have seen their peak in recent years, with many (like us) becoming net oil importers quite quickly afterwards.
It's only a matter of time before the whole world will see a peak. The peak in production tends to follow the peak in discovery by about 30-40 years...
Hence why fields discovered then are past their prime now, leading to desperate efforts to replace all those huge depleting fields with many smaller fields now.
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We're past the peak but it will probably never run out completely just get more and more scarce.
... and therefore more expensive. Sure, prices are falling at the moment due to the collapse of a speculative bubble, and the developing recession (particularly in the oil-hungry USA) will limit growth in demand, thereby removing further price pressure for a while. But the bottom line is that production is slowing, and even though higher prices will allow new oil fields to be developed, it seems that even the large ones will not be capable of pumping out the black stuff at the same rate as the big middle eastern oilfields.
All I have read on peak oil suggests that we will probably see a very and gradual long tail-off in production. The effect on prices largely depends on demand. Will the recession prompt the USA and Europe to make significant cuts in their oil usage, as happened after 1973? And will the surgeing demand from China and the far east start to slow enough to to ease the pressure on the dwindling supplies?
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Will the recession prompt the USA and Europe to make significant cuts in their oil usage as happened after 1973? And will the surgeing demand from China and the far east start to slow enough to to ease the pressure on the dwindling supplies?
To a point yes it will cut long term demand, the US especially can cut back massively on consumption just by adopting similar to cars to what we have here in Europe, but where do we cut back on our demand? Already diesel cars make about around half of all cars sold and smaller car sales are booming, where else do we go from here?
I can see demand from China backing off a bit if we stop buying so much of their manufactured goods, but as soon the economy picks up again, more and more Chinese will be buying their first car...back to where we started, but worse!
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the US especially can cut back massively on consumption just by adopting similar to cars to what we have here in Europe but where do we cut back on our demand? Already diesel cars make about around half of all cars sold and smaller car sales are booming where else do we go from here?
In two directions, methinks.
We should be making much more radical changes in the type of car we drive, using modern composite materials to make vehicles a fraction of the weight of the current city cars such as the Toyota Aygo: the lightweight and streamlined Honda Insight (minus its fancy hybrid system) is an example of the direction designs should be going in.
But the more important step is to radically reduce vehicle usage, and most of that is a social issue rather than a matter of technical fixes.
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But the more important step is to radically reduce vehicle usage and most of that is a social issue rather than a matter of technical fixes.
Agreed, and that is a massively complicated problem in itself! More trust from employers for working from home would be good. I've been doing it for 6 months now and found my productivity has actually improved and work/life balance is obviously spot on.
Doesn't work for everyone, but it should be an option where it can work.
My only regret is that I have a fast depreciating asset (car!) outside which now hardly gets used, and I miss daily driving, even in the twice daily war we often call a daily commute!
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Oil *production* peaked in the 70s.
Are you sure about that? The most pessimistic predictions for the peak I've heard are that it's a few years away, and the most optimistic that we are still decades away. But I've not heard the suggestion that it happened 30 years ago before.
Actually, a quick bit of interwebbing suggests that maybe peak production occurred in the US in the 70s. If that's right is that what you were thinking of?
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Here we are nearly 30 years on and wondering how long it will be before we reach PEAK oil - rather than terminal oil.
That's just dumb teachers not understanding how the oil industry works and taking certain reserves figures on face value.
All of the *current* fields in production have a fairly well understood life span, and they will generally be enough to supply the world at current demand for around 15-40 years depending on who does the maths. That does not actually mean that there is only 15-40 years of oil left, not at all in fact.
You see, there's lots of fields out there we know about but are still untapped and others that we're pretty sure are there but haven't been actually discovered and mapped out yet.
All in all, there will be vast amounts of oil coming out of the ground for many decades to come, but the genuine problem is how quickly can we extract the oil out of those reserves whilst they get harder and harder to get at, not to mention more expensive to produce.
That's what peak oil is all about, flow rate not how much is left in the ground. Chances are there is still over 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil left in the ground, the problem is that it's all locked up in small and difficult to get at fields, which limits how fast it can be produced.
Where all this gets controversial is estimating A) how quickly current fields will deplete, B) how quickly and cheaply we can produce new fields and C) how much undiscovered oil is out there.
There's various techniques for estimating these numbers that are not universally accepted but have good track records so far, e.g. Hubbert linearisation.
Peak oil is simply put the point where new fields coming on-line cannot completely replace the lost production from existing fields depleting. All the massive oil fields which huge daily flow rates were discovered a very long time ago and cannot pump forever.
No one who will be born this century will care about terminal oil. Peak Oil is worse for everyone alive today as we are faced with a situation where each year there is slightly less oil to go round in a world where demand is insatiable, except when the economy tanks... Will we be forced to commute and socialise that bit less every year or is it a case of fighting others to stop them consuming "our" oil?
I look forward to the day when we can power our transport from something else, but what, who knows...
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I look forward to the day when we can power our transport from something else but what who knows...
A vehicle has already been developed which runs on wheat, potatoes, rice and a huge variety of other commonly available foodstuffs. Highly efficient too, in terms of both energy needed for production and energy consumption in use: tinyurl.com/mdh82
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That's the most ridiculous vehicle I've ever seen NW. It'll never catch on.
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That's the most ridiculous vehicle I've ever seen NW. It'll never catch on.
Oh I don't know. Some of the more modern ones are designed to be quickly and easily disassembled and reassembled. Take a wheel off and you can easily fit it in the back of a moderate sized car and take it to wherever it needs to be.
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A vehicle has already been developed which runs on wheat potatoes rice and a huge variety of other commonly available foodstuffs. Highly efficient too in terms of both energy needed for production and energy consumption in use: tinyurl.com/mdh82
I've got two of those and enough spare parts to probably build another two. Great for recreation, but I could not survive economically without a car. Bicycles will only ever have a strictly limited role to play as a means of personal transport.
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That's not the only one, NW. tinyurl.com/bfbvk
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. tinyurl.com/bfbvk
Sorry, produces too much methane!!
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LOL!!! It looks far too dangerous to me, where's my 37 different air bags and 20" speed limit warning display with flashing lights and buzzers?
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A vehicle has already been developed which runs on wheat potatoes rice and a huge variety of other commonly available foodstuffs. Highly efficient too in terms of both energy needed for production and energy consumption in use: tinyurl.com/mdh82
Invent one which allows me to get to work without needing a shower and change of clothes when I get there, which will prevent me from being mugged for my laptop computer in the underpasses and bridges between my home and work (especially when the dark afternoons come) and which allows me to carry home the monthly bulk food shop for my family and take hefty refuse to the recycling centre when I need to, and then I might not need my car.
Until then, my bike is strictly a device for leisure.
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Buy a bike trailer that's big enough to hold a mean looking dog, a laptop and a weeks shopping...
tinyurl.com/3x4gt8
Job done!!
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That's just dumb teachers not understanding
"Dim" ones, or ones who can't speak. Hm.
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Sorry, Americanisms creeping in!
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Of course the oil price is going to go down... I've just had to buy 1000 litres of heating oil.
:-(
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