Weekend thinking cap time again, chaps (and ladies).
This is not an entirely new subject, but how about airing it again? What will make the next generation of classic or collected cars?
Think 10 or 15 years ahead and ask yourself "What will still be around from the post 90s that's worth hanging on to?" There's obviously the styling issue, and all that - marketing gurus have become quite cute at telling us what we want, and making sure that yesterday's cars are seen to be passé. However, what about some of the other things to do with keeping the car running? Just consider:
1. All petrol cars made since 1993 have cats and ECUs. So do common rail diesels.
2. Most cars will have ABS brakes (ABS pumps and ECUs, again).
3. Most cars will have quite sophisticated immobilisers.
4. Over the last year or so we've seen the introduction of multiplex wiring.
Add to this the prospect of most of out scrap yards being closed by EU legislation issues and it doesn't look too rosy for keeping a "nice old motor" going, does it?
Or is it going to be Moggies, MGBs et al, for ever more?
Ian
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So long as you can still build an entire Mustang from parts readily available at reasonable cost, let's hope so!
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This may seem a daft question , but what is multiplex wiring?
Regards
Matt
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Multiplex wiring is a way of reducing the amount of wiring and connectors in the car. Basically, there are two wires which run around the entire car - the data busses. When you press a button, say to adjust a mirror, a signal is sent along the bus. Only the module controlling the mirror recognises the signal. It then transmits a signal to the motor to adjust the mirror.
Fewer cables mean less weight, fewer connections, better fault logging and diagnosis and easier retrofitting of electrical equipment (so the manufacturers claim).
One final bit of trivia - the first multiplex system appeared on the Citroen Xantia.
Andy
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This has some relevence for me, as I have been running a VW Corrado VR6 for the last 6 years and would like to keep it for as long as possible. However recent ABS light problems (see post 07/03) and others(sump gasket, heater controls, heater fan bearings,brake pipes loose, two front tyres, service,MOT, road tax & insurance) have cost me £3000 since Xmas and make me think that hanging on to this car will be an expensive mistake.
When a modern car car goes out of production parts become increasingly more expensive, if you can get them at all! Parts availability and simple DIY is more likely to create a classic than driveability.
Alternatives: Morris Minor(don't need another hobby). Alternatively buy a new Yaris from Motorpoint every three years(and forget the fun factor).
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I think the 80s is the last decade from which 'classics' will herald. The amount of time and money needed to keep an 80s German car running sweetly is tiny compared to stuff from previous decades (generally speaking).
But Growler's implication that since the 60s, there hasn't really been a car to lust over long term is spot on.
If classic = lust factor + ease of running, the graph has been plummeting since 1969.
Rob F
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All depends on what you like,Any Mazda with a Rotary engine will create some intrest,i would like to own a mint '72 Mazda RX3 coupe with the Japanese Teak steering wheel[plastic wood]Most classics are in the eye of the beholder.
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Volvo 340's a must for any collector
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Peter wrote:
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> Volvo 340's a must for any collector
Peter
I collect rubbish for recycling, but I wouldn't collect one of these even if I could fit it in the dustbin.
Ian
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What about TVRs? Simple cars, few electronics, glassfibre body. I can see these and Mazda MX5s forming a big part of the classic car scene 20 years from now. Land Rovers will still have a big following, and aftermarket suppliers will make good money from engineering a throttle cable operated metering unit to replace the drive by wire system on the current TD5.
I think a more likely prospect is that people just won't be interested in doing anything that involves getting their hands dirty, or requires them to learn any new skills. We seem to be moving that way now - if you can get all your entertainment from interactive TV, why bother messing around with a rusting old car in a cold, draughty garage? Having a hobby of any kind already makes you a bit suspect in the minds of much of the population, and running a classic car will probably return to what it was in the early 1950s - the preserve of a few diehard enthusiasts dismissed by the majority as harmless eccentrics. Doesn't bother me - all my work colleagues think I am barking mad anyway (drive an old Land Rover, own two dogs, repair things myself etc etc).
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What has been said about (lack of) mechanical complexity (=ease of DIY), parts availability and so on is right on. What is likely to remain a classic for the indefinite future (unless Nanny gets toe-y about them at some future point) is clearly indicated by the marque-related enthusiastic owners' clubs now flourishing along with easy-to-get parts. Thus we see MGB's, Minors and the like.
If we accept the premise that easy-to-fix is a primary consideration (unless you're in the Ferrari league in which case they're all classics), along with EU disposal laws then you may be starting to say that your shiny 2001 ride's next incarnation may well be as tins of baked beans in Tesco's, and not as some cherished possession for young boys to go "oo-ah" over and old gentlemen in flat caps coming up to you and telling you how they used to flog one of them things up the motorway every day in their youth.
But Rob F is perceptive. Is it just old age or have there really been very many collectible cars produced in the last couple of decades? I refer not to the pricey stuff but to yer average stuff. Could there really ever be a Honda Accord classic owner's club (oops maybe there is for all I know). And why did the Morris Minor become a classic and not the Morris Marina?
No, not much of what I see running around today looks like a keeper to me. But then I could be wrong. My old man fumed backed in 1949 when the first Minor came out that all this post-war stuff is rubbish, nothing to beat the Bullnose.
Plus ca change, etc....
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What has been said about (lack of) mechanical complexity (=ease of DIY), parts availability and so on is right on. What is likely to remain a classic for the indefinite future (unless Nanny gets toe-y about them at some future point) is clearly indicated by the marque-related enthusiastic owners' clubs now flourishing along with easy-to-get parts. Thus we see MGB's, Minors and the like.
If we accept the premise that easy-to-fix is a primary consideration (unless you're in the Ferrari league in which case they're all classics), along with EU disposal laws then you may be starting to say that your shiny 2001 ride's next incarnation may well be as tins of baked beans in Tesco's, and not as some cherished possession for young boys to go "oo-ah" over and old gentlemen in flat caps coming up to you and telling you how they used to flog one of them things up the motorway every day in their youth.
But Rob F is perceptive. Is it just old age or have there really been very many collectible cars produced in the last couple of decades? I refer not to the pricey stuff but to yer average stuff. Could there really ever be a Honda Accord classic owner's club (oops maybe there is for all I know). And why did the Morris Minor become a classic and not the Morris Marina?
No, not much of what I see running around today looks like a keeper to me. But then I could be wrong. My old man fumed backed in 1949 when the first Minor came out that all this post-war stuff is rubbish, nothing to beat the Bullnose.
Plus ca change, etc....
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THe Growler wrote:
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> No, not much of what I see running around today looks like a keeper to me.
I tend to agree, Growler. If there is a candidate then one of them needs putting away in a garage - ready to get it out in 20 years time. By which time the software will have become corrupted,I expect!
Your mention of the Moggie and the Marina is amusing. The Marina was based on the Moggie underpinnings, and it was truly awful. Mind you, I never liked the Moggie either (preparing to be shot) but it was seriously better that the Marina.
Can you really imagine hanging on to a Toyota Carina-e, or Vectra etc? Some of the sports stuff, maybe.
Perhaps I'll go and dig up an old Wartburg.
Ian
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Ian
This link has been on before, but let me put the boot in for an old British Leyland favourite;
www.sniffpetrol.com/issue003.html - bottom of the page
RIP Minors, A35s, Midgets, and MGBs
I can't think of any car around nowadays that will have the durability and lack of electronics to make it a long-term classic unless a cottage industry springs up to repair faulty engine, ABS, suspension etc. ECUs
How about it anyone?
If the things stood any chance at all of longevity, my nominations for non-supercar future classics would be Peugeot 406 coupe, Jaguar S-type, Rover 75, Ford KA or Peugeot 206cc
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Very disappointed to hear about the problems with the Corrado as I was considering acquiring one with a view to long term ownership. What about a Puma - all themagazines rave and they can't be that complex can they?
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Marko - Don't let me put you off buying a Corrado. The basic structure of the car and the build quality is excellent. Most modern cars when they get older suffer from annoying little faults, mainly electrical, and some can be annoyingly expensive to fix. This is where the concept of a 'modern classic' falls down. Buy and enjoy the car, but with your eyes wide open. (and keep your credit card handy!)
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205 GTi , Ford Cosworths, Porsche 944/968 , Alfa 164 Cloverleaf, Lotus Carlton.
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I don't think it will become impossible, just people will need to have electronic know how to keep them going. Many electronic components nowadays are extremely reliable, e.g. CD players almost ever break, stuff with no moving parts even less so. My Carlton I suppose is one of the first generation of cars to be loaded with electronics and engine management systems, and is comparable to other electronics systems of the day in terms of its quality. As time goes on surely such electronics will become ultra reliable? Of course the problem with that is the less they break the less people there will be around who know how to fix them.
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The Elise will probably stay interesting and any Audi S or BMW M will keep some future value. Can't see any interest in anything that sells in any reasonable number.
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>Can't see any interest in anything that sells in any reasonable number.
Well in fact that is the reality of the classic market. The most popular and useable to the ordinary man ( as opposed to the "never use it" collector) in the classic cars are those mass production models that are still available in sufficient numbers to keep up a thriving spares and repair market.
They may not have the top image or be the most interesting but they keep the classic market alive.
So you need to look at todays cars to project forward to the MGB and Minor of the future.
Lexus and so on will not be in with a shout.
David
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Spot on, David. The Japanese manufacturers are not in the business of supplying spares for their cars beyond, I seem to recall, seven years. So unless a car also enjoys cult status in Japan or the USA, and UK buyers are prepared to pay for importing spares, there is not going to be sufficient supply of new spares for UK Lexus and other Japanese motors.
On Guy's list in the following post, I think you need to apply the same criteria and ask if there will be/is a support industry for all of those models. Given the VAG bias, probably yes, but I wouldn't bank on a ready cheap source of spares for the RS2. The Clio might be OK if it uses mostly bits from the Renault parts bin but I can't see it gaining even the modest backup that exists now for the Alpine GTA.
Somebody mentioned the MR2 and I was toying with the idea of investing in one of those or a Honda S2000 for long-term use over 15-20 years. Frankly, I think the MG TF is much more likely to be the car regarded as a classic in 20 years time, simply because there will be more around and a better spares supply. What do I base that on? I have a hand-built 1930s sports car which was more expensive than either an MG or a Morgan at the time, arguably looked and performed better, and much more exclusive, but today is worth maybe half the price of the MG/Morgan because hardly anybody has ever heard of it, and spares are very difficult to find.
David
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1908's
VW Golf G60 Edition One
Audi Coupe Ur Quattro
1990's
Audi RS2
Escort Cosworth
2000's
Audi TT
Clio Mid-Engine V6
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Guy,
You've been half expecting this haven't you?!
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> 1908 VW
Is that the factory started by Hitler's dad???
Bono
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