From New Scientist, 29 October:
Navigation, power and communications systems that rely on GPS satellite navigation will be disrupted by violent solar activity in 2011, research shows.
A study reveals Global Positioning System receivers to be unexpectedly vulnerable to bursts of radio noise produced by solar flares, created by explosions in the Sun's atmosphere.
When solar activity peaks in 2011 and 2012, it could cause widespread disruption to aircraft navigation and emergency location systems that rely heavily on satellite navigation data.
Particularly intense solar activity occurs roughly every 11 years due to cyclic changes to the Sun's magnetic field ? a peak period known as the solar maximum.
Solar flares send charged particles crashing into the outer fringes of the Earth's atmosphere at high velocity, generating auroras and geomagnetic storms.
Radio noise
Charged particles from solar flares also produce intense bursts of radio noise, which peak in the 1.2 and 1.6 gigahertz bands used by GPS. Normally, radio noise in these bands is very low, so receivers can easily pick up weak signals from orbiting satellites.
In 2005, however, Cornell University graduate student Alessandro Cerruti discovered a puzzling failure in GPS reception while operating a receiver at Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico.
Along with Paul Kintner, from the university's electrical engineering department, Cerruti traced the problem to a radio burst induced by a solar flare. They found that GPS receivers operated by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Brazilian Air Force experienced similar disruption during this burst of solar activity.
The researchers say the problem has escaped detection before because GPS systems have spread in popularity during a time of relatively low solar activity.
Drowned out
Discovering the disruption was surprising. "[Other] people will be surprised at the next solar maximum," Kintner says. Both the number and intensity of radio flares will increase and could drown out GPS signals during this period, he says.
This may be a problem for aircraft navigation as the FAA uses reference GPS receivers on the ground for air traffic control. Kintner says these "will certainly fail" during these intense solar flare radio bursts, which could produce noise drowning out signals. Although planes can fly without GPS, outages force the FAA to increase the distance between aircraft and slow take-offs and landings, delaying flights.
GPS is also used for emergency rescues and also to synchronise power grids and cellphone networks. One solution, says Kintner, would be to increase the strength of GPS signals. But this would mean redesigning GPS satellite hardware and software
Cerruti presented details of the problem at a meeting of the Institute of Navigation on 28 September. Details will be published in a forthcoming issue of the journal Space Weather
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So 5 years to go and some minor incovenience to people using car sat nav! Maybe not a good time to be flying or out in a yacht but I won't be!
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Remember all the fuss about y2k? It'll be another excuse for people to make money by scaremongering.
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Remember all the fuss about y2k? It'll be another excuse for people to make money by scaremongering.
Having worked in Satcomms for nearly 7 years, I can say this is a lot more real than the Y2K bug. I can see this is a completely feasible occurance, although it will probably be more sporadic in nature than a complete blackout as the article suggests. It willl probably also be very much time of day related depending on the relative position of the earth/sun/satellite.
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So does this forum have permission to quote that article like how Aretas has? What about copyright etc.
Don't suppose you followed the TomTom thread in which I referenced this article via my thead:
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=45586&...e
The actual link being:
www.newscientisttech.com/article.ns?id=dn10189&fee...2
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Yes rtj I remember teasing you about it....
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GPS could become obsolete in Europe as and when Galileo is commercially available.
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Yes, I realise that Galileo will be similaraly afflicted by Solar Flares though I was taking another slant on the thread title "Don't get too fond of your GPS system!".
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Don't remember any problems during the last period of solar flares.
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Are you sure that this is not a marketing gimmick for PAYG insurance? I can see the line now,
Sign up today and get a whole year free in 2011.
--
pmh (was peter)
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There's the clue cheddar! GPS isn't going to be switched off and is anyone going to pay money to use a European alternative ("Commercially available")? It will be in service years late, over budget and why should we prefer it over the current system?
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Firstly, this has been happening ever since marconi first invented radio waves. There has always been dire warnings about the sunspot peak, the last one even claimed it would affect computers. Of course it never happened.
As for the old GPS becoming obsolete, what are the yanks going to do, put silver foil over europe?
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TourVanMan TM < Ex RF >
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NASA was supposed to be working on their 'solar soarers' that will be high in the atmosphere but cheaper and less vulnerable than satellites. I wonder if they'll be used to take over from the current GPS systems?
---
Xantia HDi.
Buy a Citroen and get to know the local GSF staff better...
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I think that GPS satellites are in geosynchronous orbit ie don't move relative to the Earth. The calculations for establishing your position from a number satellites, all of which are moving, would need a very large computer I suggest! That said, if there is a problem it can be solved if enough money is thrown at it, unless it is the NHS!
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Can't see it will affect my system. It's crap anyway. If I'd actually paid for it I would be really annoyed.
Cheers
DP
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Can't see it will affect my system. It's crap anyway. If I'd actually paid for it I would be really annoyed. Cheers DP
I think what you mean is that the mapping software you are using with the GPS downlinks is crap, not the GPS system itself.
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I think what you mean is that the mapping software you are using with the GPS downlinks is crap, not the GPS system itself.
Correct.
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I think that GPS satellites are in geosynchronous orbit ie don't move relative to the Earth. The calculations for establishing your position from a number satellites, all of which are moving, would need a very large computer I suggest!
Actually the GPS satellites are moving in low-earth orbits c. 11,000 miles, IIRC (with the exception of the WAAS/EGNOS satellites which *are* geostationary) and they're moving at about 6,000mph across the sky. The calculations are simplified since each GPS has an accurate model of the predicted orbits of each GPS satellite - i.e. they know where they're supposed to be at any given moment. This information is updated on a longterm basis by the reception of an almanac containing the number of satellites operational and their rough predicted orbits. Each satellite then updates this information with a precise ephemeris download which details exact orbital characteristics and other parameters such as the drift of the on-board atomic clock.
So, whilst the calculation is still far from trivial (at least for my maths ;-) ), this system removes many of the variables involved and makes it manageable for a small, handheld device.
m.
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Alpha Dio - I broadly understand that, oh Wise One! Does that mean that the mathematics by which the system presently copes with the movements of satellites, in a reasonably predictable manner, could be adapted to cater for the larger and less predictable movements of transceivers carried in high flying remote controlled aircraft?
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Alpha Dio - I broadly understand that, oh Wise One!
:-D
Does that mean that the mathematics by which the system presently copes with the movements of satellites, in a reasonably predictable manner, could be adapted to cater for the larger and less predictable movements of transceivers carried in high flying remote controlled aircraft?
I doubt it would be able to accommodate this application - though the (very) low speed of the plane makes part of this easier. More problematic is the need to identify exactly where the plane is - probably from the existing GPS constellation - which would be a problem if that's been knocked out / is unavailable. Without a fundamental redesign of the GPS protocols / hardware to include source position information, a non-space based navigation system is a non-starter, IMHO. At least if this was undertaken, there would be the opportunity to boost signal power making it easier to receive under trees etc. :-)
m.
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then updates this information with a precise ephemeris download which details exact orbital characteristics and other parameters such as the drift of the on-board atomic clock.
i knew that........... :0
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TourVanMan TM < Ex RF >
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There's the clue cheddar! GPS isn't going to be switched off
As for the old GPS becoming obsolete, what are the yanks going to do, put silver foil over europe?
Clearly GPS is not going to be switched off! However it likely that a lot of effort will be put into marketing the commercial attributes of Galileo so in features and benefits terms a sat nav on the Galileo system, for instance, may well be the best choice for European consumers.
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features and benefits? it needs to tell me device exactkly where i am. what else is there to know.
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TourVanMan TM < Ex RF >
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Can't see it will affect my system. It's crap anyway. If I'd actually paid for it I would be really annoyed.
Its obvious you know nothing whatsoever about how GPS works or what uses it.
Just about everything that moves commercially relies on GPS ,planes, ships for navigation.truck tracking systems,cargo monitoring,mobile phone networks the list is endless.Just because second rate cheaply made car Sat Navs send a truck up a blind alley because of cheap mapping do not knock the system.
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We're not even entirely sure that GPS will still be around in 2011.
The satellites belong to the US Government, and they don't have an infinite lifespan (each bird will need replacing approximately every 10-15 years).
It's far from clear that the US will use the same system in years to come, and there are no guarantees whatsoever.
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US military do not use know its purely commercial.
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Amazing thing about this and similar threads is the revelation that so few people are ever sure where they are. Shouldn't you all have two GPS systems just in case one is faulty? Or rather three, so that you can go with the majority opinion when differences arise?
Quote from French theatrical farce writer Dubillard: 'I saw the Void once, and there's a lot less to it than people think.'
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WIll it affect my ATI navigation system?
V
* AA road map/Town A-Z/Intelligence - it could catch on.
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Ah but apparently every 12 hours or so it will get dark and you will be unable to read the road signs!
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Galileo is just a commercial version of the US military GPS system, enhanced as it's newer. But with Pay For Use features, Your still going to need a GPS receiver to use it, whether it's a Tom Tom unit, or one which is capable of using the PFU features. All current GPS receivers will be usable with Galileo when it finally becomes live.
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It'll be like living in Soviet Russia.
Da.
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