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Plucking some average figures out the air, for today, crude oil is $75 a barrel and fuel at the pump is £1 a litre. I can't do the maths but if oil went to $150 a barrel what would that do to the pump price of fuel? I appreciate that it wouldn't double as well, obviously! One pundit/doomster is talking about $250 a barrel for crude - what would that do to the UK pump price, assuming Greedy Gordo keeps his taxes at the present levels?
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AS
In round figures UK petrol is 80% tax. The other 20% is the cost of the crude oil and refining. I don't know the split between crude/refining costs but if it's 50/50 then the crude would be 10% of the cost of a litre. With GB's taxes, doubling the cost of crude adds, what, maybe 15% to the pump price?
This is why the Americans are complaining. Their petrol has very few taxes, so the cost of crude has hit them much harder, as it represents a far greater proportion of the pump price.
JS
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what would that do to the UK pump price,
without looking up all the details, i would hazard a guess (my gut feeling) that every $1 equates to about 0.4p to 0.5p per litre at the fuel pump.
so $250 a barrel should be something like 35 to 40 p extra per litre over today's pricce.
(excludes effect of $ to £ exchange rates, and assumes t ha tinflation effect on everything else is nil. in reality, $250 a barrel would impact on so many things, including a drastic effect on inflation and world economy and gloabl warming and the iceage, that overall effect on the pump price would be hard to predict).
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The straight impact of the increase in raw material cost from $70 to $250 per 45 gallon barrel is around 47p per litre - rougly as Dalglish posted.
However, transportation costs / heating etc would probably add 10% ponts to RPI and a world recession causing demand for oil to plummet and with that prices...unless supply collpases. Serious analysts are saying $100 .. maybe a spike to $150 if Iran cut off supplies as a result of US well judged foreign policy. $250 is not seriously talked about .. perhaps in 10 years time?
It would undoubtedly stimulate alternative fuels - and drive sugar and corn prices (both raw materials for bio-oils) to record highs and there is of course not enough of either to make a significant difference.
As for hydrogen fuelled cars? Well people complain about common rail diesels being complex. Imagine having to have a spotless garge with technicians using insulated gloves before they can do any work on the engine etc..It would make the aircraft industry look like a back street garage:-) and common rail diesels would look like Model T Fords:-) . And if you spilled liquid hydrigen in an accident and ANY got onto human skin, I am afraid it's at best instant frostbite and surgical removal of the affected flesh. Into your lungs and I suspect it's fatal lung damage.
(The problems can be worked around but the costs of new cars and a network of insulated fuel stations would be immense, let alone the hundreds of new power stations needed to generate and house the fuel...)
madf
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Market Background July 2006 UKPIA
The average price of major brand unleaded petrol in the UK reached 97.8 pence per litre and 99 pence for diesel, the latest monthly survey data from Wood Mackenzie OPAL shows. The survey of 11 major EU countries also shows that the UK continued to have amongst the cheapest pre-tax pump prices for major brand petrol and diesel.
Crude oil and refined product prices continued to reflect strong demand from those countries with expanding economies. Continuing political concerns in the Middle East and disruption to Prudhoe Bay, Alaska oil production has added to market uncertainty, pushing the price of Brent North Sea crude above $70 per barrel and the NW Europe price of unleaded petrol close to $800 per tonne, up from $583 average for January 2006 or the equivalent of 7.4ppl . Inevitably, some of the increase in wholesale prices is being reflected in pump prices on forecourts but as the figures below show, the gross margin on petrol has dropped below 5 pence per litre, which has been the long-term average of the last 4 years.
UK unleaded 95 petrol pump price composition
(average major brand price for July 2006)
Pump price 97.8ppl
Duty & VAT 61.7ppl (63%)
Petrol cost (spot price) 31.9ppl (33%)
Gross retail margin+ 4.2ppl (4%)
+ Gross retail margin is the difference between the buying and selling price of petrol. The amount available has to cover all the costs of storage & transportation from a refinery, the running of a filling station and profit of the retailer.
www.ukpia.com/Portals/0/Repository/Documents/UKPIA...f
www.ukpia.com/Portals/0/Repository/UKPIA%20EU%20Pu...f
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