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The main benefit of the locking wheel nuts is probably not preventing the low-life stealing the wheels, but ensuring that when they do the insurance company will still pay out. Pretty much every insurance policy I've seen has a requirement for locking wheel nuts to be used with alloy wheels, and you can guarantee they'll use this to get out of paying for a claim if they can.
The replacement of the wheels and tyres won't be the only cost - the car won't be left carefully propped up on bricks, just jacked up anywhere and then dropped on the ground with inevitable damage underneath too.
The days of some scally opportunist taking the wheels off a car to sell in the pub, but having enough respect for people's property to leave the car on bricks, is probably gone. However the more organised car part theives (who will have the tools to get the wheels off anyway if they want them) are more prevalent than ever.
I've never had an issue with the locking bolt not coming undone, nor with losing a locking wheel nut key - it just lives permanently in the spare wheel well, and it only takes a very quick check to be sure the garage has put it back after changing wheels, servicing the car etc.
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