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Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Whichcar

Well just about to buy a petrol car. Getting worried as hearing lots of negative things about non electric cars ie how gov want us all to go electric and will try and find ways to make it difficult to run a non electric car ie tolls, banned from city centers, higher taxes and that if you want to sell it in a few years it won't be worth much as everyone will be getting forced to by an electric.

What are people's thoughts? Buying a brand new Dacia sandero right now in light of the above?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - daveyK_UK
I wouldn’t worry about it yet, especially if your buying a smaller car like a Sandero.

It will be over 10 years until electrics are widespread and no doubt in 10 years time electric car battery range and charging will be considerably better than what is currently on offer.


Enjoy your Sandero, I think the current one is a fantastic car, just a shame they have stopped selling the access basic model.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - SLO76
Long long time to go before it’s a concern and even if you decided prematurely that it was, you can’t afford one. So buy your petrol car and stop fretting. The Sandero is one of my favourite small new cars, buy and enjoy it.

Edited by SLO76 on 27/01/2022 at 23:11

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - focussed

Buying a non-electric car is an extremely good idea, You will know that you should be able to get to where you want to go without searching for a charging station that works.

Let's face it, being able to get to where you want to go is what it's all about isn't it?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Xileno

I wouldn't have any concerns about buying a car in the Sandero's price bracket. By the time ICE are banned it will be worth very little anyway. I would be more hesitant about spending a large amount £40k plus.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - daveyjp

My thinking is ICE cars took about 50 years to go from early adopter stage to an option for the masses. The world wars will have added time to this, so assume 40 years.

Electric will be no different. Its almost 11 years since the first Leaf was launched. The current crop of EVs are still very much for early adopters and these models will be around for the next 8-10 years, with mid life update.

Ten years from now the ban on ICE may be taking effect, but it will be the 2040s before EVs are for the masses as the stock of used EVs from the 2030s need to get into the market.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Ian_SW

I'm not sure I'd buy a new diesel car any more. Only 6-7 years ago, we were being told they were the only type to buy if you were being environmentally responsible, and now you have to pay large amounts of money to use cars bought back then in many cities. The next obvious step will be banning diesel vehicles altogether from some areas.

Equally, buying a premium car with a big V8 engine probably wouldn't be a particularly astute financial move now, but it wouldn't have been particularly cheap to do so 30 years ago either!

A fairly basic, cheap and efficient small petrol car like the Sandero kept for most of its life should be fine. It will be at least 15-20 years before petrol stations become so rare it becomes inconvenient, and the car you are buying will cost less than half pretty much anything electric, so even if there is a massive hike in fuel or vehicle tax it's unlikely to cost you more overall over 10 years.

If you're more concerned about future value when coming to sell in a few years time, rather than running the car for all of its useful life, let someone else take the risk by leasing instead of buying. Lease prices are low at the moment, so the lease companies don't think there's going to be a collapse in used car values in few years time...

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - FoxyJukebox

My fear is that once confidence in EV's properly build-then petrol retailers will start closing faster than rats going up drainpipes...

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Gibbo_Wirral

No chance. My car is 19 years old and still running fine. When it dies I'll probably buy another ten year old car and run that.

I think you'll see 21 plate petrol cars still in regular use by 2040 and beyond.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - badbusdriver

My fear is that once confidence in EV's properly build-then petrol retailers will start closing faster than rats going up drainpipes...

Can't see that happening. It may be that number of petrol pumps available start to reduce, certainly in cities where EV's make most sense for the time being. But there will still be petrol pumps for a long time to come, especially in rural areas.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - John F

It probably depends on mileage. If you are a high miler with good access to charging, an EV might be a wiser choice. But if you only drive a few thousand miles a year the ICE probably makes more financial sense.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - martin.mc

Go for it. The Sandero is a good reliable car and should easily last ten years or more. In 2030 the price of used petrol and diesel cars will go through the roof. Look what's happening now with a slight squeeze on the supply of new vehicles. In fact it's probably a good idea to trade it in for another new petrol car sometime in 2029.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

Buying a new petrol Sandero at around half the price of similar size EV makes sense.

If kept for (say) three years there will still be a market for s/h petrol vehicles - the s/h EV market will still be immature with high prices and limited supply.

If kept long term (8-10 years++) any car will be of little value at sale time - even EVs will be obsolete due to battery developments increasing range and reducing costs.

Just my opinion but those who think a 10 year old ICE car will be high value and in demand in 2032 are (not wishing to be rude) mistaken.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

Just my opinion but those who think a 10 year old ICE car will be high value and in demand in 2032 are (not wishing to be rude) mistaken.

It all depends upon whether the infrastructure will support them as a mass market vehicle and second handcar and battery prices come down sufficiently for those buying 10yo ICE cars to afford them.

Otherwise there'll still be a decent market for 2nd hand ICE cars (especially if reliability and especially corrosion issues are properly resolved for the long term), or we'll be back in the Downton Abbey era when only the upper middle class and above can afford to run a car.

Note that ICE cars will not be banned 10 years hence, just buying new ones. I still suspect that there is a lot of mileage (pardon the pun) in the debate as to when new ICE cars will not be allowed to be sold, just because the current crop of (naive, stupid and/or corrupt [take your pick]) politicians say so at the moment.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - sammy1

Unless there is some joined up writing on a charging network soon I can see ICE having a bit of an extension. Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions. I don't think I would want to be stuck with a complicated hybrid either. Most ice bought today should be good for at least 10 years if not longer. If and when ICE does dry up I can see some buying ICE models that perhaps would not be their first choice As people begin to see that climate change is not the emergency that some would have us believe attitudes will change

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

As it happens I think climate change is for real - but I am also of the view that the UK is a sufficiently wealthy, temperate country that is (mostly) capable of adapting. Many poorer bits of the world will struggle.

ICE uses limited reserves of carbon based fuels - EV has the potential to use only green and nuclear sources (although not yet). If folk think current energy costs are high (gas, oil) just wait a few years as global demand continues to increase.

Even if unconvinced by climate change, a hash economic reality makes transition to green energy sources a high priority.

Since 2016 the number of public charging points has grown from ~6k to ~30k, excluding private charging in homes and apartments, offices etc. Whether the rate of progress can be maintained is speculation.

The government is unlikely to change policy on banning new ICE from 2030 unless it is abundantly apparent that supply infrastructure is a major constraint. Even to acknowledge the possibility may reduce RV uptake.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

As it happens I think climate change is for real - but I am also of the view that the UK is a sufficiently wealthy, temperate country that is (mostly) capable of adapting. Many poorer bits of the world will struggle.

Yes and perhaps. Unlike certain nutty US politicians from New York, the world won't be ending by 2032. The climate is always changing, whether naturally or to some extent (still a matter of debate as to how much and how quickly), so I'd say that we all have time to adapt as required - but only if we all get along and stop wasting resources and polluting the environment.

I think there's far more danger from microplastics, dumped waste, et al as that gets into the water (especially the oceans, which do regulate the global temperature/weather) and food chain.

There was significant progress on reducing poverty and the effects of weather events in developing nations over the last 10-20 years than those before, and that was mainly due to those nations doing better economically.

ICE uses limited reserves of carbon based fuels - EV has the potential to use only green and nuclear sources (although not yet). If folk think current energy costs are high (gas, oil) just wait a few years as global demand continues to increase.

Even if unconvinced by climate change, a hash economic reality makes transition to green energy sources a high priority.

Why? The only reason why fuel prices are high at the moment is because of the residual effects of the pandemic response - many of which I feel are unwarranted, and because of certain geopolitical events that have led to a deliberate shortage of natural gas (and to some extent oil) and a ramping up of wholesale prices because of those events maybe leading to wars.

That many nations, especially in Europe, rely heavily on natural gas to generate electricity, means that EVs would be serious affected as well; similarly most PV panels are made in China, thus they are affected price and availability-wise as well.

Go back to Dec 2019 and things were quite normal otherwise, including economically.

What doesn't help now is how many already rich and powerful forces are also behind these 'green' policies, which (like the pandemic respopnse) stand to further enrich them (money and power) at everyone else's expense.

Nuclear outside of the UK is essentially off the table for the time being because of the fear caused by the Fukashima incident and many politicians in-hoc to the greenie brigade, who hate nuclear, and even here we have very little expertise left in that field, hence why we've gone to France and China for the large scale power plants (not a good idea for the latter, given what they've been up to on several fronts).

I would like to be convinced about the oft-put forward small scale plants from home-grown firms (nuclear sub type I think), but nothing ever seems to come of it. I often wonder if it's been oversold, rather like a lot of the green tech that rarely reaches the potential sold to the politicians (and with them getting huge subsidies decades later).

Since 2016 the number of public charging points has grown from ~6k to ~30k, excluding private charging in homes and apartments, offices etc. Whether the rate of progress can be maintained is speculation.

The problem is that having one charging point for 'an office' or a private home won't help others who can't use those chargers either because they are in use, the space taken up (on someone else's property) or they live in a flat).

Unless and until ultra fast charging, the same time as that for ICE filling station usage, is implemented to the same degree (which will require a step change in the equipment, batteries and huge changes to infrastructure, including building of the (with highly reliable chargers - something that isn't present now) manned charging stations, it's a pipe dream other than for the well-off.

The government is unlikely to change policy on banning new ICE from 2030 unless it is abundantly apparent that supply infrastructure is a major constraint. Even to acknowledge the possibility may reduce RV uptake.

It would if it started to lose votes once the lower middle and especially working class voters realise they won't be able to afford said EVs, especially as so-called 'environmental' laws mandating manufacturers to reduce emissions very rapidly means that smaller cars will get to be EV only first (Micra, Fiat 500 for example) rather than the mdeium and larger ones.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - sammy1

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station .

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station .

High rise buildings have car parks where they cars are parked so why not have the chargers in the car parks?

Terrace properties could have chargers built into the kerb/pavements etc.

The solutions are there - you just need to put someone in charge who can get it done.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Andrew-T

<< Terrace properties could have chargers built into the kerb/pavements etc. >>

Not a solution I would like to see implemented, tho it may well be the only workable one. Many roads are already littered with kerbside street furniture, much of which gets hit by delivery vehicles or others. Yet more chaos whenever something buried needs digging up.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station .

High rise buildings have car parks where they cars are parked so why not have the chargers in the car parks?

Where, exactly? Most have no space for them, including the car park where my car (and every other one on the housing development where I live) is parked. Most flat blocks are the same or even worse, e.g. high-rise ones (mine's low rise) with car parking like municipal car parks but with no pavement/dege etc beween the ends of spaces.

Terrace properties could have chargers built into the kerb/pavements etc.

This wouldn't work.

a) they would be liable to be vandalised;

b) again, most won't fit.

c) who'd pay for them? My housing development, like an increasing number, is situated on (deliberately) unadopted roads (a great way for councils to get full council tax revenues but to not have responsibility to look after new roads, street lights, parkland, etc)

Imagine how much it would cost for my (private) housing association to install 110 charging points (assuming we could - see above), including where all the cars would park whilst the work is being carried out (we already don't have enough spaces and need parking control). This is not uncommon either.

The solutions are there - you just need to put someone in charge who can get it done.

See above. Its for those reasons why I believe the plans to go full EV are way too soon and need to be done over a much longer period (for many other good reasons that I've mentioned on other topics before) so that it can be done organically so it can be affordable.

Iit's all well and good those who already can afford EVs and home chargers telling everyone else how they should front huge bills and disruption, but as I've shown, for the vast majority in those housing situations (and that amounts to tens of millions of people in the UK alone), the current plans are unworkable and budget-criplling.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - sammy1

""""the current plans are unworkable and budget-crippling.""""

That's just it, what plans? I cannot see anything being even remotely discussed as too how millions will charge their EV

People who live in terraces have great trouble parking outside their house, a lot parking in the same street even. The chances of them having a home charger at possibly favourable night tariffs are next to Zero. They would not be happy having to go to public chargers all the time and having to pay electric rates far higher than others

Maybe the new highway code is being far sighted and see most of us on bikes

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

The US has ~800 cars per 1000 population, most of western Europe ~500-600, China ~200, India ~50. The rest of the world aspires European standards of living - not just cars but all aspects of life - heating, aircon, lighting, consumer durables etc etc.

This takes energy. You are at liberty to believe that the current hike in energy prices is temporary. I think you are completely wrong - global demand will continue to increase for a diminishing resource with only one long term economic outcome.

Over the coming few years, certain things seem plausible:

  • improvements to battery technology, increased range, lower cost, faster charging
  • energy companies make money selling power - they will increase capacity if demand is there
  • supermarkets, hotels, theatres etc want to attract customers - one way is providing charging facilities
  • workplaces may need to install charging points to attract the best staff
  • planning regulation can/should mandate charging points

Most folk will need to charge once or twice a week, not daily. I am sure there will be local and regional hiccups, but there are no absolute barriers to 100% EV, only time.

That you can't charge at home (nor fill up your car with petrol) is largely irrelevant. All major political parties are committed to the change in policy, and unlikely to change direction in the absence of an insoluble major impediment.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - De Sisti

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station.

High rise buildings have car parks where they cars are parked so why not have the chargers in the car parks?

Where, exactly? Most have no space for them, including the car park where my car (and every other one on the housing development where I live) is parked. Most flat blocks are the same or even worse, e.g., high-rise ones (mine's low rise) with car parking like municipal car parks but with no pavement/edge etc between the ends of spaces.

Terrace properties could have chargers built into the kerb/pavements etc.

This wouldn't work.

a) they would be liable to be vandalised.

b) again, most won't fit.

c) who'd pay for them? My housing development, like an increasing number, is situated on (deliberately) unadopted roads (a great way for councils to get full council tax revenues but to not have responsibility to look after new roads, street lights, parkland, etc)

Imagine how much it would cost for my (private) housing association to install 110 charging points (assuming we could - see above), including where all the cars would park whilst the work is being carried out (we already don't have enough spaces and need parking control). This is not uncommon either.

The solutions are there - you just need to put someone in charge who can get it done.

See above. It’s for those reasons why I believe the plans to go full EV are way too soon and need to be done over a much longer period (for many other good reasons that I've mentioned on other topics before) so that it can be done organically so it can be affordable.

It's all well and good those who already can afford EVs and home chargers telling everyone else how they should front huge bills and disruption, but as I've shown, for the vast majority in those housing situations (and that amounts to tens of millions of people in the UK alone), the current plans are unworkable and budget-crippling.

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I agree with Engineer Andy.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

Assume you live in a high rise with no onsite charging capability. You never go to work, the shops, hotels, sporting venues etc etc where chargers are increasingly likely to be installed.

Why then are you bothered about whether you can charge the car - frankly you don't need one. And the government will be very happy that you become a disgruntled public transport user.

There is only one scenario where I can see a problem. You live in a high rise, retired so don't work, only ever go out to see friends and family in other high rises.

You may just have to accept that you spend a few hours a week sitting in the local Tesco car park to charge your car. Not really an issue as you do nothing else anyway.

With apologies to those who think I am being deliberately provocative, insensitive or unfair.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - pd

You won't get charge points installed everywhere for the same reason there aren't petrol pumps everywhere.

There will be places to go and charge and as long as you go somewhere from time to time there is a charger it's not a big deal. I have to go somewhere now to "fill the car" up. I can't do it at home.

There is a huge challenge around infrastructure but a lot of the existing fuel suppliers will be investing heavily - they have to, otherwise they'll have no business.

With some of the super fast chargers coming on stream 15-20 minutes will do about a week's use for a lot of people. And, frankly, if you never, ever go somewhere for 20 minutes it begs the question why you have a car.

The challenge I think is around generation of the power and the back-bone to get it in sufficient quantities where there are large numbers of fast chargers.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

The challenge I think is around generation of the power and the back-bone to get it in sufficient quantities where there are large numbers of fast chargers.

Was reading a piece with the National Grid and they don't see any upcoming issues with the extra demand that there will be.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

Assume you live in a high rise with no onsite charging capability. You never go to work, the shops, hotels, sporting venues etc etc where chargers are increasingly likely to be installed.

None - not ONE of my workplaces has ever had sufficient car parking spaces to accommodate all staff members driving in to work. At most (small firms), they could manage about 50%, and most - companies with 30 staff and above, were lucky to have enough for 20% of their staff.

Sure, not everyone comes into the office each day, but that probably accounts for about 10-15% of the workforce. Thus you have a sizeable chunk who have to park elsewhere, often on side roads, including non-adopted ones on industrial estates and business parks, and (more often than you think) some way away from their place of work.

As I also said before, most car parks do not have any space adjacent (including at the back) of each parking space to accommodate a charger - in fact, most are nowadays barely can accommodate a medium sized car.

Sadly, I rarely got to travel to a sports centre or hotel during my everyday work activities, even when I was travelling for work to meetings, site visits, and for surveys. Thus they would be of little use, especially with many locations (e.g. building sites) inherently not having any chargers at them.

Why then are you bothered about whether you can charge the car - frankly you don't need one. And the government will be very happy that you become a disgruntled public transport user.

Other than commuting (see above), people DO use their car for other purpoises. And it might get your notice that not all businesses, organisations and private indivisuals you visit would have the space (people living in flats or terraced housing) or money (grants now going) to afford to install charging points.

A Telegraph article yesterday said that most councils are not keen as even with government subsidies (whiuch won't cover all the costs, in fact, nowhere near), to install them to the degree needed in municpal car parks and especially the robust and frequent on-street parking type.

There is only one scenario where I can see a problem. You live in a high rise, retired so don't work, only ever go out to see friends and family in other high rises.

With respect, that's not correct. All it requires is any combination of the two, and the aforementioned scenarios, PLUS for chargers to be not working (quite frequent these days, if news reports are correct), not compatible (e.g. Teslas only at motorway service stops aside from 2 or 3, which might not be working themselves) and/or are already in use.

I would have to keep returning from whever I was - workplace, visiting a client or firend/family member (often well away from their locale) to check if another charging point was now free for me to charge up, and then stay there to make sure it charged up properly and wasn't vanadalised.

You may just have to accept that you spend a few hours a week sitting in the local Tesco car park to charge your car. Not really an issue as you do nothing else anyway.

I'm sure that will be of no bother to the better off who increasingly don't give a rat's back side about anyone but themselves because they have all what's needed with no fuss.

Noting also that every space in the car park would then be full with EV cars charging and frozen food defrosting - even when I go on holiday and need a full load of groceries I do not spend an hour in a supermarket. Normal week - 10-15 mins, big shop, perhaps 30 mins.

Again, see issues above about charging and existing car parks or charging issues. Do I only go shopping when I know I can get home on the existing charge? What happens if I need to go to work or a longer trip the next day but have to buy frozen food?

It's easy when you have the resources, but not for many millions of other people.

With apologies to those who think I am being deliberately provocative, insensitive or unfair.

Ditto. I have no problem with discussions when people are being honest in their opinions, even when each side thinks the other is completely wrong.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

Where, exactly? Most have no space for them, including the car park where my car (and every other one on the housing development where I live) is parked. Most flat

In the floor under the cars - delivered wirelessly? Each car park space has a charger built in. Public car parks could be the same. Terrace roads could have them.

You are an engineer - can you not think of anything?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - John F

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station .

NIO have invested heavily in the battery exchange option, which would suit the millions of Chinese who live in all those massive blocks of flats seen in all Chinese cities. Funny how we used to say we were 10yrs behind the Americans.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

"""Nobody is saying for instance what is a solution for high rise and terrace properties of which there are millions."""

EV is going places but is there a solution to the above? If not home charging one hell of a lot of public chargers somewhere unless you can charge in 5mins like fuelling at a petrol station .

NIO have invested heavily in the battery exchange option, which would suit the millions of Chinese who live in all those massive blocks of flats seen in all Chinese cities. Funny how we used to say we were 10yrs behind the Americans.

I can't see battery exchange being viable for many years - likely several decades, because not only do they need to incredibly robust (physically and long lived) to withstand the beating they will undoubtedly get from being manhandled and usage (including not as directed, by i****s), but that they would need to be VERY light and small so that they can be swapped easily and quickly, including by the less able-boddied.

Existing proper EV packs weighs well in excess of 100kg, often a LOT more and takes up a lot of space, often somewhere inaccessible to the driver, under the car.. To get it down to a manageable weight and small enough to put (say) in the 'engine' compartment or underboot area, the level of improvement in energey density would have to be astounding.

Note also that all existing EVs would then be rendered worthless (junk) because they wouldn't be able to participate due to having no facility to upgrade (easily), especially as it would be poorer people who would likely be onwing said vehcile as a 10-15yo used car by then.

Unless EVs could be made so cheap that even poorer people could afford them when under 5 years old, then we'd have to wait until at least 2040 for them to get cheap enough on the second hand market, and that's assuming the battery issue above was completely resolved, never mind all the raw materials, recycling and infrastructure ones I've mentioned here and on other threads on similar topics.

I think many 'solutions' are often very overly-optimistic about what they can viably achieve, the cost, knock-on issues, problems to resolve to get them operational to be of use and the timescale.

Glass half empty I might be on this, but I think I'm being realistic.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - pd

Bearing in mind we already have 350Kw chargers which will become more widespread both in terms of numbers and cars able to work with them (with no doubt more powerful to come) I can't really see any great demand for easy swap batteries.

No one seems to be taking the swap route for this reason. If you can get a decent charge in typical car in 10 minutes a swap would have to be of F1 proportions to be even worth considering.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - madf

Sat 1 million cars commute to work. All plugged in to 350KW chargers at 6pm and switch on at say 9pm. . The resulting power demand surge - 350GW - exceeds current demand by a factor of 7.

So metered charging would take hours.

Please check my maths!

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Ian_SW

My wife (when she had to go to the office every day) had what most people think of as a long commute, 50 miles each way, so 100 mile round trip.

A reasonably efficient EV will do about 4 miles per kWh. That means that each day she would need to put 25kWh of electricity into her car each day. That's possible via a 13 amp plug in about 9 hours, or 4 hours on a typical 7kW dedicated home charger.

If every house drew another 3kW during the night, that wouldn't bring the grid down, and would just being night time electricity consumption closer in line with what is used in the day.

In reality, most cars do significantly less mileage than this - I think the average daily commute is something like 15 miles round trip. Average mileage of cars is about 8000 miles per year. A decent EV will go 250 miles between charges, so only needs to be charged up 32 times per year. Even if that's rounded up a bit because people won't want to run on the EV equivalent of fumes, most people will only need to charge once a week most of the time.

The big grid capacity constraint will be places like motorway service stations. They have about 400 parking spaces, and on a busy Saturday in summer, most of those spaces on places like Michaelwood are used by people stopping off halfway on a 300 mile journey. If every person there needed a fast charger (let's assume 200kW), that is a total load of 80 megawatts (electrical load of about half the London Underground if my maths is correct) needed to be available in a rural area.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - pd

Presumably every car will not plug in at once.

It is worth noting the current petrol/diesel delivery method certainly cannot cope with every car filling up every day at the same time either as we saw in September.

A lot of people will only be plugging in once every week or two weeks and even them maybe for only 15 minutes or less on a very fast charger.

I get the challenges, I'm just not sure they are the ones everyone thinks they are.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - RT

Presumably every car will not plug in at once.

It is worth noting the current petrol/diesel delivery method certainly cannot cope with every car filling up every day at the same time either as we saw in September.

A lot of people will only be plugging in once every week or two weeks and even them maybe for only 15 minutes or less on a very fast charger.

I get the challenges, I'm just not sure they are the ones everyone thinks they are.

It's not difficult for anyone the think through their present car usage patterns and see how they're affected if they switched to EV - some patterns aren't a problem, others need a change of habits to work but some are impossible to overcome.

For me, it's the barriers to towing a caravan 400 miles/day in a sensible time - and monthly day trips of 400 miles to places with no electricity and no chargers.

It's not helped by the WLTP over-optimism compared to motorway cruising at the legal limit - it also applies to IC cars but the much bigger range (960 miles in my case) acts as a buffer.

Edited by RT on 31/01/2022 at 14:47

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

My wife (when she had to go to the office every day) had what most people think of as a long commute, 50 miles each way, so 100 mile round trip.

A reasonably efficient EV will do about 4 miles per kWh. That means that each day she would need to put 25kWh of electricity into her car each day. That's possible via a 13 amp plug in about 9 hours, or 4 hours on a typical 7kW dedicated home charger.

If every house drew another 3kW during the night, that wouldn't bring the grid down, and would just being night time electricity consumption closer in line with what is used in the day.

In reality, most cars do significantly less mileage than this - I think the average daily commute is something like 15 miles round trip. Average mileage of cars is about 8000 miles per year. A decent EV will go 250 miles between charges, so only needs to be charged up 32 times per year. Even if that's rounded up a bit because people won't want to run on the EV equivalent of fumes, most people will only need to charge once a week most of the time.

The big grid capacity constraint will be places like motorway service stations. They have about 400 parking spaces, and on a busy Saturday in summer, most of those spaces on places like Michaelwood are used by people stopping off halfway on a 300 mile journey. If every person there needed a fast charger (let's assume 200kW), that is a total load of 80 megawatts (electrical load of about half the London Underground if my maths is correct) needed to be available in a rural area.

I know many people have said that the national grid would not fall over, but I wonder how local networks would fair, especially if people were plugging in between 6-8pm when lots of people are also using lots of other home electrica equipment, including electric ovens and hobs, which do draw a significant amount of juice.

I've worked on some (a small minority) building services refurb (and new build) projects where they've required the local substation to be upgraded, which supposedly costs six or seven figure sums.

Sometimes it just takes the addition of A/C to a reasonable-sized building to require this, which could be the equivalent to many EVs being charged at that time I stated, perhaps with more homes using heat pumps for heating as well.

In with the comment I made about a Telegraph report from over the weekend on issues not everyone is aware of when getting an EV charger at home, there was another whereby the home owner must have their own electrical supply to the home directly from the mains in the street, and some apparently have a feed onto one home's property (presumably the front garden/driveway) which then splits off to serve adjoining properties.

This would mean they all would have to have them separated to solely be on their property, which would require a significant amount of groundworks, which would not be cheap. This is one of my chief concerns for those of us living in flats.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

Sat 1 million cars commute to work. All plugged in to 350KW chargers at 6pm and switch on at say 9pm. . The resulting power demand surge - 350GW - exceeds current demand by a factor of 7.

So metered charging would take hours.

Please check my maths!

I'll take your word for it!

One of the many benefits of using liquid fuels, which can be (relatively easily) stored for long periods and yet dispensed quite quickly at certain times of the day, then replaced (by tanker) when demand is low when people are at work or overnight. These fuels therefore don't need to be produced in a very short space of time, thus spreading out their own electricity demand over the entire day/week.

Not so easy for electricity if battery energy density is not equal to ICE fuels and where vast (electricity-consuming) battery cooling facilities don't have to be used. Similarly with storing hydrogen, where it needs to be stored under very high pressures and at very low temperatures.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Warning

I am also of the view that the UK is a sufficiently wealthy, temperate country that is (mostly) capable of adapting.

It is only temperate because of the jet stream.If it changes, then it has huge implications. Scotland has higher building standards, but the rest of England will not be able to cope if there huge snowfalls. It will grind the country to a halt. Summer may be too hot.

The UK is the same latitude as Alaska.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - RT

I am also of the view that the UK is a sufficiently wealthy, temperate country that is (mostly) capable of adapting.

It is only temperate because of the jet stream.If it changes, then it has huge implications. Scotland has higher building standards, but the rest of England will not be able to cope if there huge snowfalls. It will grind the country to a halt. Summer may be too hot.

The UK is the same latitude as Alaska.

The UK climate is "Temperate Maritime Climate" - we're on the edge of the huge Europe-Asia landmass so the main influence is the North Atlantic and the Gulf Stream.

The Jet Stream affects our day-to-day weather but not our climate.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - David Bronson

I don't think you need to worry about it. At least the next 10 years. Electric vehicles, although gaining popularity, are still dominated by internal combustion engines on the roads. As for the inconveniences that you mentioned (tolls, banned from city centers, higher taxes), they are much less than the inconveniences of operating an electric car (lack of charging stations, distance range, cost of the car and its maintenance, sensitivity to air temperature, problems with the microclimate in the cabin).

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - badbusdriver

the inconveniences of operating an electric car (lack of charging stations, distance range, cost of the car and its maintenance, sensitivity to air temperature, problems with the microclimate in the cabin).

Explain?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - David Bronson

Look:

1. Lack of charging stations. For comfortable electric car using mostly just large cities are suitable. In most cases, electric vehicles have to be charged from your own outlet in the house or apartment. And it is very long and not convenient.

2. Distance range. Models costing $ 45,000 - up to 200-250 kilometers. Budget electric cars have about 100–120 kilometers. Because of this, they can only be used in the city. Premium electric vehicles are devoid of such shortcomings - the Tesla Model S and Jaguar F-Pace travel more than 500 km on a single charge. But their price is not available for everyone.

3. Cost of the car and its maintenance. About prices of the cars I've told already (about 2 times more that petrol car of same class). Now about maintance. For example, in Germany, the repair of electric vehicles is more expensive - by about 30% in the event of a car collision, and the repair of plug-in hybrids is the most expensive. Therefore, "casco" policies cost a little more than insurance for cars with internal combustion engines. The higher price of repair is not only due to the design features of electric vehicles (for example, the battery, a key element of such vehicles, requires enhanced protection in case of an accident), but also to specific safety standards and manufacturer requirements. Some of them, for example, insist on replacing the battery in case the airbag has been deployed. This costly operation can make repairing a damaged machine economically pointless.

4. Sensitivity to air temperature. The practice shows that at 5°, battery capacity is reduced by 20%, at -5° - by 35-40%, and at -12° - by 50%

www.greencars.com/post/how-cold-weather-affects-el...s

5. Problems with the microclimate in the cabin. The air conditioner and stove are battery powered. By turning them on, you reduce the power reserve by another 20-25%. Partially, the problem can be solved by installing an autonomous heater running on gasoline or diesel fuel, but then an additional source of costs will appear.

Edited by David Bronson on 02/02/2022 at 07:03

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

This seems a US not UK perspective on EVs where distances driven may be much longer, and climate more diverse. Mostly, but not complete, rubbish for the UK:

  • many new EVs can recover 80% of charge in an hour - some faster. Most cars parked at home with charging available will be there overnight
  • the range quoted for ordinary EVs is understated. Most mid-range EVs sold today typically have a range of 200-275 miles
  • higher repair costs for EVs is a temporary issue due to limited service points, limited after market and lower volumes. They are fundamentally less complex that ICE..
  • note the difference between degrees C and F. Most of the UK has only the occasional day below 0C (32F) - the US is different
  • heating is a drain on an EV battery - although some EVs also need battery cooling systems which provide some surplus heat
Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - David Bronson

Perhaps you are right about the temperature features of the operation of an electric car. But other than that, I don't see much of a difference. As for distances: yes, in the USA the distances are bigger, but UK is not a village 20 km away either. Regarding the availability of filling stations, I don't think that the situations in our countries are very different.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

This seems a US not UK perspective on EVs where distances driven may be much longer, and climate more diverse. Mostly, but not complete, rubbish for the UK:

  • many new EVs can recover 80% of charge in an hour - some faster. Most cars parked at home with charging available will be there overnight

Only if that home has a charging facility. As we've stated before, you'd be surprised how many homes either cannot have one because they don't have the space (flats), cannot afford the (large) builderswork and/or electrical upgrades or are constrained by being a leasehold / council property, never mind being remote from the home and vulnerable to vandalism or others stealing the space, including to use the charging point

  • the range quoted for ordinary EVs is understated. Most mid-range EVs sold today typically have a range of 200-275 miles

Isn't that their maximum range, not the worst case in the dead of winter or on really hot days in summer when the heater or A/C is required? And that's the range on day 1, not year 10+.

  • higher repair costs for EVs is a temporary issue due to limited service points, limited after market and lower volumes. They are fundamentally less complex that ICE..

True, but often, the reduction in the cost of manufacture of EVs is overstated, and does not account for the huge taxpayer subsidies for their production and for infrastructure. I don't recall any being needed when ICE vehicles first started or since.

As such, the real cost to everyone (especially those who don't own an EV or likely won't be able to afford one for decades, if ever [despite being able to afford an ICE car]) is far higher than many proponents let on. And this is after EV cars have been around for well over 10 years.

  • note the difference between degrees C and F. Most of the UK has only the occasional day below 0C (32F) - the US is different

True, but many countries around the world are either far hotter, cooler, or both (e.g. range of extremes, e.g. central Europe [centre of large continents usually]), and thus our more mild climate (less extremes) is more of an outlier. EVs with poor battery cooling (supposedly the Leaf mk1) has suffered many reliability problems in hot countries, e.g. Australia.

As such, the cares would either need to differ to account for the different climates around the world or have extra equipment (or battery capacity to account for the drop in efficiency / extra cooling taking power and thus EV range) worldwide, increasing costs for users in the UK.

  • heating is a drain on an EV battery - although some EVs also need battery cooling systems which provide some surplus heat

No good in summer when you want the A/C to cool the car. It would be interesting to know whether the battery cooling system and the cabin heating system share pipework and thus could make use of heat exchangers in winter to move heat from the batteries to the cabin.

The problem is that EVs are mainly a car tech for the well off, leaving everyone else with either nothing (because ICE is priced out via taxes or banned by law) and forced to use public transport (which often is not suitable for the journey taken or the usage [large amount of shopping needing storage for the journey back]), but paid for disproportionately (as a percentage of disposable income) by that same group.

In addition, the better off (especially those at the top of the wealth tree) deliberately lobby governments for this tech because they invest or work in that field, and thus stand to easily offset any extra taxes etc they may be paying, which often are miniscule in comparison to their disposable income. It would also free up the roads (and airports/skies for other green 'measures' like carbon taxes) they use so they can have a stress-free journey whilst the plebs suffer on theirs, assuming they can travel at all.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

The problem is that EVs are mainly a car tech for the well off, leaving everyone else with either nothing (because ICE is priced out via taxes or banned by law) and forced to use public transport (which often is not suitable for the journey taken or the usage [large amount of shopping needing storage for the journey back]), but paid for disproportionately (as a percentage of disposable income) by that same group.

I think you will find that when ICE vehicles were first about they were for the more well off as well...in fcat when was something new not more likely to be bough by those more well off?

As new EV's come out and battery costs reduce (which is a major cost at the moment) then the costs of the cars will come down. Although as I've mentioned to you before the cost of the car does not matter as much now as it did in the past as so many people pay monthly and lease the car...and the lower cost of charging compared to petrol/diesel means people can pay more a month if they choose to.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

The problem is that EVs are mainly a car tech for the well off, leaving everyone else with either nothing (because ICE is priced out via taxes or banned by law) and forced to use public transport (which often is not suitable for the journey taken or the usage [large amount of shopping needing storage for the journey back]), but paid for disproportionately (as a percentage of disposable income) by that same group.

I think you will find that when ICE vehicles were first about they were for the more well off as well...in fcat when was something new not more likely to be bough by those more well off?

Yes, but that was 100 years ago. Mass (ICE) car ownership has been a thing since the 1960s/70s. Note that it took about 60 years for that to happen, and yet the 'great and the good' are forcing EVs or back to public transport on us all in about half the time, right at a time when economically it couldn't be worse.

As new EV's come out and battery costs reduce (which is a major cost at the moment) then the costs of the cars will come down. Although as I've mentioned to you before the cost of the car does not matter as much now as it did in the past as so many people pay monthly and lease the car...and the lower cost of charging compared to petrol/diesel means people can pay more a month if they choose to.

Forgive me for saying, but the lease 'ownership' (including PCP) is for all intents and purposes a Ponzi scheme that gets people who cannot afford to buy a car (including via a loan) further and further into debt, rather like sub-prime home loans did 15+ years ago, and we all know how that ended (and still has not been resolved).

Note also that many 'green' technologies are being very heavily subsidised by the taxpayer worldwide, further enriching the rich and powerful at the expense of everyone else, and at some point not that long away, the monetary pain of those soverign debts will have to be born by us plebs - likely when a similar hit comes from other government spending on credit and the BIG one from personal debt (especially for 'purchases' of cars and homes).

With the cost of electricity likely to be skyrocketing (ironically due to green taxes as much as the pandemic response and geopolitical issues), charging prices will likely be going up even more. If petrol/diesel were taxed at the same level as electricity is, then the difference would be a lot more favourable to the former.

Note also that leasing a car means you are locked into that agreement or risk a big penalty to get out. I somehow doubt if an older EV will be able to be leased and thus the huge cost of the replacement battery system (or other high ticket components) may loom over the 'owner' like the grim reaper.

As I've said before, ICE vehicles tend to give the owner / potential onwer physical (e.g. an oil leak) or auditory signs that certain components are on the way out, plus engine/major components can be more easily repaired or changed out than with EVs, where, like many modern electrical devices, have to be changed in their entirety because sub-components are rarely modular.

It's why repairing items like modern washing machines, ovens and TVs are rarely economic outside of the warranty period, forcing the owner to pay for a new one and junking the old one, despite the vast majority of the remaining parts being in working order. Electrical components often 'suddenly fail' with little to no warning.

I'm sure things for EVs, including battery tech, will improve and get significantly cheaper to buy - I just don't think they will do in the very short timeframe now being touted for them to take over from ICE, initial for new cars and then (presumably) second hand ones.

As yet, I have yet to hear of any moves to help many people like me who live on developments where EV charging is not economic / physically possible (at present) to do so by 2030 without bankrupting us.

Measures should be over a far longer period (my guess is 3x as long or more), especially as most of the 'dire predictions' on climate seem to fit agendas, rather than the other way around, plus again, many involved appear to make a LOT of Bankand/or political capital out of their involvement, rather like other worldwide events that are changing society (for the worse).

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - sammy1

Nice post EA agree with all this. All of a sudden people will wake up and see electricity is not the cheap fuel that many are pushing it to be. The latest Skoda EV SUV now pushing £50k a car for the masses now becomes exclusive.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - movilogo

Forgive me for saying, but the lease 'ownership' (including PCP) is for all intents and purposes a Ponzi scheme that gets people who cannot afford to buy a car (including via a loan) further and further into debt, rather like sub-prime home loans did 15+ years ago, and we all know how that ended (and still has not been resolved).

No need to apologize for saying the truth! Unfortunately modern economy is based on debt. We are now looking at inter-generational mortgages due to huge rise of house price! A population under debt, is easier to tame than those who have no debt.

We also live in a society where status is obtained by buying goods (even with borrowed money). Many people (mostly women) buy Gucci handbags for £££ yet they don't have enough £ to carry inside the bag!

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

Forgive me for saying, but the lease 'ownership' (including PCP) is for all intents and purposes a Ponzi scheme that gets people who cannot afford to buy a car (including via a loan) further and further into debt, rather like sub-prime home loans did 15+ years ago, and we all know how that ended (and still has not been resolved).

Saying it's a Ponzi scheme is just nonsense and you should know that yourself.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - martin.mc

Agree with EA's post. People who don't want/can't afford an electric car will vote with their money and simply not buy one. If the EV Evangalists are correct, then by the end of the decade, used ICE vehicles will be selling for peanuts so everyone should be happy.

Edited by martin.mc on 03/02/2022 at 23:55

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

Agree with EA's post. People who don't want/can't afford an electric car will vote with their money and simply not buy one. If the EV Evangalists are correct, then by the end of the decade, used ICE vehicles will be selling for peanuts so everyone should be happy.

Why do you have to be an EV Enagellist to want one?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - martin.mc

Didn't mean to cause any offence. Should have said "people who are optomistic about EVs". I had a Renault Zoe courtesy car for one day and loved the driving experience. Not for me though. Nowhere to charge at home and don't fancy the hassle of trying to charge on long journeys

Edited by martin.mc on 05/02/2022 at 02:20

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - daveyK_UK
On the topic of electric cars, is it fair to assume that car manufacturers make a bigger profit per car on electric vehicles?

High prices, high demand, moderate competition, battery costs reducing by larger economies of scales, cars simpler to manufacturer with less parts compared to ICE

Is that a correct assumption?

Edited by daveyK_UK on 06/02/2022 at 21:13

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302
On the topic of electric cars, is it fair to assume that car manufacturers make a bigger profit per car on electric vehicles? High prices, high demand, moderate competition, battery costs reducing by larger economies of scales, cars simpler to manufacturer with less parts compared to ICE Is that a correct assumption?

I doubt it - the change over to EV's is very expensive for the manufacturers - lots of investment money is required, research and development costs will be much higher than bringing out standard new cars along with all the new platforms to develop.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Brit_in_Germany

A manufacturer will be happy to take a loss on an EV sale if it means the penalty charge for the average CO2 output of vehicles sold is reduced.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

In conventional product life cycle terms ICE are cash cows - proven designs and technology, low investment, high (albeit stable or declining) volumes = very profitable.

EVs - high investment, high risk, low volumes, high cost base, short product life, establishing market position through price and promotion = little or no profit

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Engineer Andy

In conventional product life cycle terms ICE are cash cows - proven designs and technology, low investment, high (albeit stable or declining) volumes = very profitable.

EVs - high investment, high risk, low volumes, high cost base, short product life, establishing market position through price and promotion = little or no profit

I wouldn't be at all suprised if car manufacturers are subsidising EV R&D by putting up ICE car prices as well as getting government grants.

What also appears to be happening (as alluded to befoe) is that the ever-increasing amount and complexity of safety and environmental laws mean that small cars are being priced out of the market, where the equipment to satisfy those laws make up a larger percentage of retail price than larger ones.

Probably why more city cars and soon Fiesta-sized ones will go all-EV, but will sell in much fewer numbers because the normal buyer cannot afford them, ending up as little plaything run-arounds for the better off.

Maybe I should dig out my old leather bus and train pass holder?

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - daveyK_UK
There is an article on CNN website (for the life of me I can’t find it this morning) reporting on the automotive unions in the USA getting nervous about electric cars after Ford confirmed it takes 30% less labour during assembly to build an electric car compared to an ICE due to requiring parts.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - sammy1
There is an article on CNN website (for the life of me I can’t find it this morning) reporting on the automotive unions in the USA getting nervous about electric cars after Ford confirmed it takes 30% less labour during assembly to build an electric car compared to an ICE due to requiring parts.

I can well imagine the unions concern. Even though a large part of a modern car is made by robots an ICE car has a considerable amount of other parts which are manually added to the finished car. I tried in an earlier thread to cost all the missing components that were on an ICE and are not now on the EV. Engine, alternator, radiator, cooling system, exhaust cat converter and quite a bit more. In simplistic terms if you compare just a battery and electric motor in your EV you can see less labour. Also cost wise if you loose the value of the main ICE components plus shorter man hours to make it makes you wonder why the EV is a lot more money than your ICE regardless of development costs. Why new ICE cars have increased by some 25% or more in 2 years I cannot understand/? One might expect them to go up from now given inflation etc. I hope not as I don't think another price rise is sustainable

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - alan1302

it makes you wonder why the EV is a lot more money than your ICE regardless of development costs. Why new ICE cars have increased by some 25% or more in 2 years I cannot understand/? One might expect them to go up from now given inflation etc. I hope not as I don't think another price rise is sustainable

Have ICE cars increased in price 25%?

And there has been a shortage of cars over the last few years with the pandemeic so they have been able to charge more for them as people will pay.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - Terry W

In 2019 (before pandemic complexities) there were over 20 manufacturers who sold more than 25000 cars in the UK. Some group double counting - eg: Audi, VW Skoda, Seat - where there may be an overall corporate pricing policy.

The number of separate groups is in excess of 10 - Merc, Ford, Vauxhall, BMW, Peugeot/Citroen, Renault/Nissan Honda, Toyota, Kia, Hyundai, Volvo etc. There are links between some of these companies but they are inherently competitive.

High prices are largely down to supply chain disruption, component shortages, stop/start production, low sales volumes, reduced travel, lower fleet sales, increased material costs etc.

I don't subscribe to general conspiracy theory explanations - market pressures will tend encourage reduced manufacturing costs, price reductions or specification improvements.

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - allan p rhodes

I wouldn't have an electric car if I was given one as they are part of the Governments control strategy. They are completely open to abuse, and can be easily controlled externally( as most things electric can be.). Oh I see Joe Bloggs has not paid his road tax, or has a minor criminal record , or not done something else that the Government sees as an offence. I can just see the police following you and stopping your car as they think fit.They are not safe either as they can burst into flames as the batteries get really hot and are extremely difficult to extinguish.once on fire. Also the batteries are extremely expensive to replace. I have heard £15000 plus. They have put the cart before the horse as well.as there was no infrastructure in place to service EV's. nationwide. They are not even environmentally friendly, especially in production of batteries.

All a big con. Keep the petrol and diesel and dont trust anything that has "smart" in front of it

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - badbusdriver

All a big con. Keep the petrol and diesel and dont trust anything that has "smart" in front of it

But Smarties are my favourite!

Is it a bad idea to buy a non electric car? - mcb100
I think someone’s been eating too many blue Smarties.