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Pretty much bang on regarding Tesla. Wth the Model 3, at least. They tend to have 2 or 3 shipments in the quarter, all arriving within a few weeks of other.
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Single month figures can be misleading, particularly for individual brands. But the direction of travel is clear: Based on year to date (June) numbers:
2020 sales - ICE 510k, EV and hybrid 140k, Total 650k
2021 sales - ICE 535k, EV and hybrid 375k, Total 910k
Covid constraints may explain the volume change. But it is abundantly clear that electric (EV or hybrid) are in the ascendancy.
Diesel in 2021 accounts for 93k vehicles (10%) compared to ~50% only a couple of years ago.
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I do not get the battery exchange scenario, may be if everyone was renting their car of for that matter the battery but fancy a station changing your brand new battery for one on its last legs I would not be pleased. Charging points has got to be the way but the public deserve to know what the government strategy is or is it just letting business get on with it
"""So you saying that your EV battery will be used by the grid to store energy to hide the fact that there will not be sufficient generation capacity to meet demand?
How much will they be paying the owner of the EV for that ""
Getting up in the morning late for work and the grid had drained your battery for your neighbours to cook their breakfast!
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"Covid constraints may explain the volume change. But it is abundantly clear that electric (EV or hybrid) are in the ascendancy."
It does seems that way. What would be interesting to know is how many of these new EV are single household cars. I know a fair number of households who run one EV but the other family car is ICE or hybrid. My neighbours had a Zoe which they were pleased with and it was great for the shorter runs but they used their petrol car for longer journeys. Are we at the point yet where the only car in the household can be EV, without too many compromises?
Edited by Xileno on 08/07/2021 at 17:12
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On the pros and cons of this we know of plenty of problems with diesel, but little of mechanical or electrical problems with EV cars. If you could be reasonably happy that EV would give you trouble free motoring then an EV car would seem to be no contest. However I have read reports of unhappy customers but spa*** detail
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I do not get the battery exchange scenario, may be if everyone was renting their car of for that matter the battery but fancy a station changing your brand new battery for one on its last legs I would not be pleased. Charging points has got to be the way but the public deserve to know what the government strategy is or is it just letting business get on with it
To state the bleedin obvious, its not your battery. Its their battery.
You have a contract that gives you access to the battery swap stations.
Tracking MY BATTERY in such as system is,a ludicrously extreme example of a straw man argument. You can't do it, but then you would'nt want to.
Its not necessary to theorise because this system is live and working well in Taiwan, but only for scooters. I suppose because an electric scooter has a lower investment threshold, both for development and for purchase.
Unfortunately it seems to be a proprietary and closed system. The company could presumably lease access to other vehicle makers, but would lose monopoly power so aren't likely to.
A case for state control?
Edited by edlithgow on 09/07/2021 at 01:04
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I do not get the battery exchange scenario, may be if everyone was renting their car of for that matter the battery but fancy a station changing your brand new battery for one on its last legs I would not be pleased. Charging points has got to be the way but the public deserve to know what the government strategy is or is it just letting business get on with it
To state the bleedin obvious, its not your battery. Its their battery.
You have a contract that gives you access to the battery swap stations.
Tracking MY BATTERY in such as system is,a ludicrously extreme example of a straw man argument. You can't do it, but then you would'nt want to.
Its not necessary to theorise because this system is live and working well in Taiwan, but only for scooters. I suppose because an electric scooter has a lower investment threshold, both for development and for purchase.
Unfortunately it seems to be a proprietary and closed system. The company could presumably lease access to other vehicle makers, but would lose monopoly power so aren't likely to.
A case for state control?
Gee, that's what we need - either big corporates acting as a monopoly or more top-down state control of our lives for critical transport infrastructure that wasn't before. Thye have a great prior track record of not expoliting it for their own means , power, etc or doing a competent job at a lower cost than a free market. Not.
Unlike with liquid fuels, where you can mix and match differnt suppliers without issue, batteries can only be is all of them were of the same specification, including size/capacity, which could be big problem given the disparity in the size of vehicles. With scooters, that ain't a problem. With cars, it would certainly be.
Thos other issues I described in another post earlier would still to be resolved. Unlkess and until the energy density of batteries goes up to near/surpasses that of ICE, I can't see battery exchange being viable, given how many are needed, even in the latest EVs.
Edited by Engineer Andy on 09/07/2021 at 12:03
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Well, OK, then you can't see battery exchange being viable.
I can, because I see it being viable here every day, There's one up the road
Going to be quite hard to convince me that I'm imagining it,
www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_-PKSPbvpw
Edited by edlithgow on 09/07/2021 at 18:05
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I do not get the battery exchange scenario, may be if everyone was renting their car of for that matter the battery but fancy a station changing your brand new battery for one on its last legs I would not be pleased. Charging points has got to be the way but the public deserve to know what the government strategy is or is it just letting business get on with it
To state the bleedin obvious, its not your battery. Its their battery.
You have a contract that gives you access to the battery swap stations.
Tracking MY BATTERY in such as system is,a ludicrously extreme example of a straw man argument. You can't do it, but then you would'nt want to.
Its not necessary to theorise because this system is live and working well in Taiwan, but only for scooters. I suppose because an electric scooter has a lower investment threshold, both for development and for purchase.
Unfortunately it seems to be a proprietary and closed system. The company could presumably lease access to other vehicle makers, but would lose monopoly power so aren't likely to.
A case for state control?
Gee, that's what we need - either big corporates acting as a monopoly or more top-down state control of our lives for critical transport infrastructure that wasn't before. Thye have a great prior track record of not expoliting it for their own means , power, etc or doing a competent job at a lower cost than a free market. Not.
I ducked the above “little bit of politics” earlier but I suppose its unavoidable in this context
You confuse matters a bit with your dodgy distinction between “big corporates acting as a monopoly” and the “free market.” (which, if free, is likely to lead to “big corporates acting as a monopoly”), but I’’ll take that overall as a pitch for some notional free market leading to greater efficiency and lower costs through the operation of competitive selection. Pretty standard no-such-thing-as-society Darwinian shtick.
Some counter examples I find instructive:
Development of the Railways: A good example because it should be the integrated transport system par excellance. Multiplicity of gauges produced by competing companies, requiring loads ’ to be unloaded from one set of rail cars and re-loaded onto another, a time-consuming and expensive process.’ Fixing that in the UK required state intervention in the shape of “An Act for regulating the Gauge of Railways” (1846). Unfortunately from a technical point of view they picked the wrong standard because it already had the most track laid. Though better than no standard at all, only 55% of world railways use it, an on-going legacy of a free market mess.
Personal transport example: Compare and contrast buying brake parts for a Renault Campus and a Lada.
No one could tell me which make, much less model, of brakes were fitted to the Renault. whereas ALL (Soviet) Ladas had the same brakes. Something to do with freedom of choice and greater efficiency in the (more or less) free market, no doubt.
The Internet, where we virtually hang our hat and chew the fat: It works due to standards written and imposed by a non-profit organization funded by governments.
Universal Serial Bus: Dig the supreme irony of that “Universal”. I have a big bag of USB cables. Almost every time I get some new gadget produced by the free market I go through the bag and it needs a new one that I’ve never seen before.
You need standards. The free market, if it delivers them at all, tends to do it wastefully and slowly. The flipside of competition is all the effort necessarily invested in failure.
Edited by edlithgow on 12/07/2021 at 05:22
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<< Development of the Railways: A good example because it should be the integrated transport system par excellance. Multiplicity of gauges produced by competing companies, requiring loads ’ to be unloaded from one set of rail cars and re-loaded onto another, a time-consuming and expensive process.’ Fixing that in the UK required state intervention in the shape of “An Act for regulating the Gauge of Railways” (1846). Unfortunately from a technical point of view they picked the wrong standard because it already had the most track laid. >>
Railways may not be a perfect example - remember that Russia and the Iberian countries still use a 'non-standard' gauge, primarily because their politicians decided it would prevent invasion by neighbours; and Ireland also has a different gauge for reasons I can't recall. As it was part of GB at the time I wonder what was the point.
Belgian railways are better, because their government organised the network from the outset.
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<< Development of the Railways: A good example because it should be the integrated transport system par excellance. Multiplicity of gauges produced by competing companies, requiring loads ’ to be unloaded from one set of rail cars and re-loaded onto another, a time-consuming and expensive process.’ Fixing that in the UK required state intervention in the shape of “An Act for regulating the Gauge of Railways” (1846). Unfortunately from a technical point of view they picked the wrong standard because it already had the most track laid. >>
Railways may not be a perfect example - remember that Russia and the Iberian countries still use a 'non-standard' gauge, primarily because their politicians decided it would prevent invasion by neighbours; and Ireland also has a different gauge for reasons I can't recall. As it was part of GB at the time I wonder what was the point.
Belgian railways are better, because their government organised the network from the outset.
None of which, AFACT, megates my argument. Seems to reiinforce it, in fact, so thanks.
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Single month figures can be misleading, particularly for individual brands. But the direction of travel is clear: Based on year to date (June) numbers:
2020 sales - ICE 510k, EV and hybrid 140k, Total 650k
2021 sales - ICE 535k, EV and hybrid 375k, Total 910k
Covid constraints may explain the volume change. But it is abundantly clear that electric (EV or hybrid) are in the ascendancy.
Diesel in 2021 accounts for 93k vehicles (10%) compared to ~50% only a couple of years ago.
'Ascendancy'? It would be if they increased by one more than pure ICE cars. The problem for 2020 and 2021 is that the pandemic has grossly distorted tha market for both building and selling cars, especially mass market (lower priced) vehciles, meaning that EVs are going to look more popular because the well off can still afford them, rather like thas case at the moment with foregin travel/holidays.
You also lump in hybrids with EV, but that will include cars that are 'mild' self-charging hybrids, which provide little to no motive power (often running just the electrics) and thus contribute little towards using less fuel/lowering CO2 emissions over an appropriately engined ICE car (which will be lighter).
EV sales still are very low single figures despite the times we're in, and as other has proven, Tesla don't continually ship cars year round, so they have a few months that look good and rest they're nowhere.
Add to that there will inevitably be a ceiling on EV sales as they still are at the top end of the mass market price range, which, especially at the moment, most people cannot afford, particaular because of ancilliary costs or issues associated with not being able to charge them at home (people living in flats or terraced housing).
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With regard to standards for charging electric vehicles, BSI have been active for some time although obviously it is a developing area: Standards and EVs | BSI (bsigroup.com)
Common sense says battery swopping is technically feasible if we decide to go down that route and it has already started to be addressed by standards:
There are also standards around battery swapping scenarios – when a discharged battery is replaced with a full one to avoid charging delays. IEC TS 62840-1 provides manufacturers with overarching guidance on such systems, while BS EN IEC 62840-2 outlines specific safety requirements.
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Common sense says battery swopping is technically feasible if we decide to go down that route and it has already started to be addressed by standards:
That is clearly 'feasible', just as swapping any other parts of a car. But using this method on a similar scale to the regular filling of a tank that we are all used to, seems to me to be rather infeasible ?
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Common sense says battery swopping is technically feasible if we decide to go down that route and it has already started to be addressed by standards:
That is clearly 'feasible', just as swapping any other parts of a car. But using this method on a similar scale to the regular filling of a tank that we are all used to, seems to me to be rather infeasible ?
Especially as most EV battery packs are stored in some of most inaccessible parts of the car and often (Teslas, for example) require time at the dealership with a technician and the car on a ramp to be able to swap them out.
Not exactly something one can do down the local Esso, let alone in short order or for those who are elderly/infirm.
Bring on Mr Fusion and feeding it banana skins, etc! :-)
youtu.be/ptlhgFaB89Y
Either that or its mini nukes! :-)
youtu.be/UENRVfdnGxs?t=89
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Especially as most EV battery packs are stored in some of most inaccessible parts of the car and often (Teslas, for example) require time at the dealership with a technician and the car on a ramp to be able to swap them out.
Not exactly something one can do down the local Esso, let alone in short order or for those who are elderly/infirm.
Feasible with vehicles, batteries and mechanical handling systems designed for frequent, fast battery swopping. Foolish of me to expect only common sense on here.
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Especially as most EV battery packs are stored in some of most inaccessible parts of the car and often (Teslas, for example) require time at the dealership with a technician and the car on a ramp to be able to swap them out.
Not exactly something one can do down the local Esso, let alone in short order or for those who are elderly/infirm.
Feasible with vehicles, batteries and mechanical handling systems designed for frequent, fast battery swopping. Foolish of me to expect only common sense on here.
Feasible is different to 'theoretically possible', old bean. I mean, have you seen how many battery cells a Tesla has, and how long it would take to manually disconnect them, haul them inside the 'service station' and the new ones out again? Or the amount of storage that facility would need to be able to hot swap enough to cover the same number as would use it to refill ICE vehicles per day?
Battery tech has not come anywhere near close yet to be able to take a battery pack that could easily be handled and replaced quickly, and the reason why pure EV with long ranges have their battery packs in a specially-designed underbody area is that they are used to keep the centre of gravity low, the weight reasonable balance front to back and to help stiffen the sub fame.
Currently, putting them in the boot would dramtically reduce the available space as well as make it handle worse, but still with the issues regarding hot-swapping.
Unless (no guarantee at this point, as even the best batteries are still about 9x less energy dense than petrol) the energy density of batteries can be hugely improved - bearing in mind to refuel a 55L petrol tank doesn' mean you remove it, haul it over to the booth and get another one - this sort of 'design' would be available any time soon - possibly for a very long time.
The ease of liquid/gaseous refuelling and high energy density is one of the biggest things in their favour. I wopuld say the 'superchargers' are a better bet, at least for the moment.
Common sense meaning being realistic (especially on timeframe/budgets) just as much as trying to think up innovative solutions to problems. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look for them though.
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Especially as most EV battery packs are stored in some of most inaccessible parts of the car and often (Teslas, for example) require time at the dealership with a technician and the car on a ramp to be able to swap them out.
Not exactly something one can do down the local Esso, let alone in short order or for those who are elderly/infirm.
Feasible with vehicles, batteries and mechanical handling systems designed for frequent, fast battery swopping. Foolish of me to expect only common sense on here.
Feasible is different to 'theoretically possible', old bean. I mean, have you seen how many battery cells a Tesla has, and how long it would take to manually disconnect them, haul them inside the 'service station' and the new ones out again? Or the amount of storage that facility would need to be able to hot swap enough to cover the same number as would use it to refill ICE vehicles per day?
Battery tech has not come anywhere near close yet to be able to take a battery pack that could easily be handled and replaced quickly, and the reason why pure EV with long ranges have their battery packs in a specially-designed underbody area is that they are used to keep the centre of gravity low, the weight reasonable balance front to back and to help stiffen the sub fame.
Currently, putting them in the boot would dramtically reduce the available space as well as make it handle worse, but still with the issues regarding hot-swapping.
Unless (no guarantee at this point, as even the best batteries are still about 9x less energy dense than petrol) the energy density of batteries can be hugely improved - bearing in mind to refuel a 55L petrol tank doesn' mean you remove it, haul it over to the booth and get another one - this sort of 'design' would be available any time soon - possibly for a very long time.
The ease of liquid/gaseous refuelling and high energy density is one of the biggest things in their favour. I wopuld say the 'superchargers' are a better bet, at least for the moment.
Common sense meaning being realistic (especially on timeframe/budgets) just as much as trying to think up innovative solutions to problems. That doesn't mean we shouldn't look for them though.
To state the bleedin obvious again, a Tesla (or any currently conventional electric vehicle) has a massive battery because it needs one to deliver usable range between charges, because its rather long charge times largely restrict it to overnight charging.
IOW it has a big battery which and because it is not designed for swapping.
If you designed for manual swapping, you would have smaller batteries which you could swap more often, so you would need less total capacity.
Using the Gogoro system operational for scooters in Taiwan,which I've linked to a couple of times now, but is invisible to the "cant see it" contingent I'd think something like a beach buggy or Mini Moke, with cells inserted along the running board side members, would be nice.
With a conventional IC car (conversion?) layout, you could have a cell matrix under the bonnet where that noisy smelly thing that old people like me knew about was.
The old people will miss it, but they'll all be gone soon, too.
Edited by edlithgow on 13/07/2021 at 05:27
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The Chinese Nio EV company appears to be investing heavily in the battery-swap re-energising method....
www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/nio/
...but you just can't resolve the heft problem - lumps of energy weighing around fifty times as much as the equivalent easily transportable and dispensable liquid variety.
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The Chinese Nio EV company appears to be investing heavily in the battery-swap re-energising method....
www.carmagazine.co.uk/electric/nio/
...but you just can't resolve the heft problem - lumps of energy weighing around fifty times as much as the equivalent easily transportable and dispensable liquid variety.
Strangely enough, some large warehousing customers are now starting to look away from old fashioned swappable batteries for there electric forklift trucks & are looking to hydrogen fuel cells instead.
The fuel cell fits in exactly the same space the battery did so its compatible with current forklift designs.
Quicker to refuel & no battery handling issues.
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<< Foolish of me to expect only common sense on here. >>
Knowing the scarcity of common sense here, yes, it was foolish of you not to describe more precisely what you had in mind.
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