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I watch Gridwatch daily at odd hours..gridwatch.co.uk/
ANYONE - but anyone who thinks that green energy is going to povide energy overnight to charge electric vehicles clearly does not watch Gridwatch and is as ignorant of teh issues as the politicians who - let's face it - have no clue -see Dieselgate as an example of their cretinoius ignorance...
There is NO solar power at night. On cold winter nights with clear skies, there is often no wind.. So whilst Green energy may contribute 30% odd of our total current power demand, to suggest is can produce 100% reliably at night all summer and winter, day and night is so risibly and evidently stupid in ignorance of the reality of supply.
And if all our cars are electric, most sums suggest demand will double - at night..
So if we want to be all electric by 2040 we should start a MAJOR upgrading of the power distribution network incorporating battery storage as and where it is needed. Planning should start now as some planning permissions will involve long arguments and delays.
Guess what? No-on knows what the technology will do in 2030 let alone 2040 so planning is not really started.. and cannot really start..
It may of course all be possible and easily solved - but the technological breakthrough need to make it has not happened.
Anyone who belives the politicians have any worthwhile ideas should accept counselling :-)
Edited by madf on 07/05/2018 at 16:15
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ANYONE - but anyone who thinks that green energy is going to povide energy overnight to charge electric vehicles clearly does not watch Gridwatch and is as ignorant of teh issues as the politicians.......
...It may of course all be possible and easily solved - but the technological breakthrough need to make it has not happened.
Yes it has happened - ages ago. For many years now the 14 solar panels on our roof have generated 3 megawatts a year. That's roughly what we two pensioners use over the year.
An electric car uses about 10kWh per 100Km, so two megawatts would easily do for an annual mileage of around 10,000m (assuming I've got the maths right)
If our whole roof was solar panels and one of our non-loadbearing walls consisted of batteries, we could probably be off grid for most of the year. The reason it's not happening is probably because oil and gas are dirt cheap and raise loads of tax. I think the future lies in the provision of personal and local community battery piles. Historians will look back at how long it it took us to get out of the habit of installing roofs made of primitive slabs of clay.
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I recently read that present infrastructure would not support more than 2 or 3 houses in a row of 10 having car charging. In winter solar panls/storage may not be enough to overcome this.
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Comparing hybrid/electric with carbon based fuels based on the economics of today is daft. We need to anticipate circumstances in 10,20 and 30 years time and plan accordingly. :
Energy used by a vehicle is mainly a function of weight and aerodynamics, influenced by the way it is driven and engine efficiency. So for two similarly sized vehicles there is no major difference in energy used Fuel is an erergy source and batteries an energy store.
You may not like electric power,, and I agree that right now it is a costly option. But look forward 20 years to a time when:
- city pollution severely restricts use of ICE.
- the tax regime has changed to penalise further ICE
- improvements to energy efficiency generally limit new capacity rrequred
- battery technologies change to use far more commomplace an cheaper materials
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Comparing hybrid/electric with carbon based fuels based on the economics of today is daft. We need to anticipate circumstances in 10,20 and 30 years time and plan accordingly. :
Energy used by a vehicle is mainly a function of weight and aerodynamics, influenced by the way it is driven and engine efficiency. So for two similarly sized vehicles there is no major difference in energy used Fuel is an erergy source and batteries an energy store.
You may not like electric power,, and I agree that right now it is a costly option. But look forward 20 years to a time when:
- city pollution severely restricts use of ICE.
- the tax regime has changed to penalise further ICE
- improvements to energy efficiency generally limit new capacity rrequred
- battery technologies change to use far more commomplace an cheaper materials
Once taxation moves from petrol and diesel to electric, perhaps via mileage tax, electric will become very expensive unless there are major efficiency improvements. And batteries have a finite life, and are made from expensive materials which will be in high demand.
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<< For many years now the 14 solar panels on our roof have generated 3 megawatts a year. That's roughly what we two pensioners use over the year. >>
Tut, tut, John - your panels may have generated 3 megawatt-hours a year; my 9 panels produce about 1750 kwh ('units'). Only power stations can produce at the rate of megawatts ....
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Modern city housing is high rise. Modern city dwellers use tubes and buses. Those living in cities don't NEED electric cars and those in high rises will be unable to charge them overnight.
These inconvenient facts are unlikely to change in the next 50 years - due to housing and land constraints.
As I wrote above, it's a pipe dream.
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Government can very easily make ICE unattractive compared to electric - siimply banning or road charging all ICE in urban areas would make them market limited to rural areas only.
Petrol/diesel is apparently far more expensive than electricity largely due to tax. .The energy consumed is similar. ICE generated losses are largely experienced as wasted heat. Electric losses are mainly in the power station. There are many smaller losses creating differences - eg: refining plant, distribution infrastructures etc..
Battery storage seems to put £10k on the cost of a ssmall/medium sized car but the pace of change is massive. ICE has used the same fuel for 30-40 years since lead was banned. At a simplistic level battery technology has gone through at least three iterations - lead/acid, nickel/cadmium and now lithium ion. A leap of faith to assume there will be further battery improvements or that fossil fuels will still be abundant and cheap in 40 years.
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Petrol/diesel is apparently far more expensive than electricity largely due to tax
That will change as electric becomes the norm, government is not going to lose all that income unless they decide to increase income tax/put it on something else.
I was reading that lead acid may come back modified for electric motors as its possible they could store 4 times the current of lithium ion, research is ongoing with that idea much as all other alternatives are
I do not see hybrids dissapearing for a while due to as has been mentioned, too many hurdles with charging points to overcome, I have noticed a lot of people now seem to think we will all have electric cars within 10 years or so, I expect there will be more bought over time but not that quickly
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Petrol/diesel is apparently far more expensive than electricity largely due to tax
That will change as electric becomes the norm, government is not going to lose all that income unless they decide to increase income tax/put it on something else.
I was reading that lead acid may come back modified for electric motors as its possible they could store 4 times the current of lithium ion, research is ongoing with that idea much as all other alternatives are
I do not see hybrids dissapearing for a while due to as has been mentioned, too many hurdles with charging points to overcome, I have noticed a lot of people now seem to think we will all have electric cars within 10 years or so, I expect there will be more bought over time but not that quickly
I checked out the HJ electric car cost page. Petrol is much cheaper than electric even with the tax. We need massive cost reductions before electric is truly viable.
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<< For many years now the 14 solar panels on our roof have generated 3 megawatts a year. That's roughly what we two pensioners use over the year. >>
Tut, tut, John - your panels may have generated 3 megawatt-hours a year; my 9 panels produce about 1750 kwh ('units'). Only power stations can produce at the rate of megawatts ....
Sorry, I should have been more accurate, Andrew. The maximum my panels can generate at mid-sunny June day is indeed only about 2.9 kilowatts. But if 1000 houses on a large estate......
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What about those of us living in flats?
The roof space per property is so small in comparison to houses and the cost and disruption to occupants of retorfitting solar PV panels (never mind solar thermal - almost impossible without turfing everyone out, gutting the place and re-piping the whole building) would be huge for a relatively small gain.
Many older flats do not have sufficient infrastructure (risers, available/accessible ceiling voids between floors [many riddled with asbestos]) to take such installations either.
Neither do flats have easy access to road infrastructure to install secure charging points as most are built on private land well away from the main road (or at least their car parking areas are) or have sufficient room to install the new chargers, never mins the huge costs of digging up many metres of road/running through multi-level concrete car parks, laying the cables, resurfacing (but with decent access).
The security (whilst charging) is, to me, the most difficult to overcome (the others are more financial due to the sheer amount of modifications and building/grounds works required, much, much more than in houses who would get a better return on their investment [more PV panels per home generating more electricity and a safer charging environment]), as yobbos could sever cables, or others steal the electricity by just unplugging it (which could mean you can't drive to work the next day) or damage the chargers which would cost a fortune to repair/replace (higher insurance premiums).
This undertaking is not going to be easy, and at present, governments/politicians and lobby groups are just playing with dieas that frankly will do nothing to solve the many problems I and others have outlined, which AREN'T just technical ones associated with generating or storage capacity. In my view, this is going to take several decades, maybe even 100 or more years of hard work across ALL fields of life in countries to ensure we have the technology, infrastructure and general policies designed to help ensure decent, cheap access to clean fuel sources for EVERYONE.
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In my view, this is going to take several decades, maybe even 100 or more years of hard work across ALL fields of life in countries to ensure we have the technology, infrastructure and general policies designed to help ensure decent, cheap access to clean fuel sources for EVERYONE.
All very true, Andy. But if it does take that long, EVERYONE will have become EVERYTWO or even more. We're all running to stay in the same place, and there will be little countryside left within 50 miles of the Smoke.
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The security (whilst charging) is, to me, the most difficult to overcome
I doubt by then we will need to worry about that as I suspect as with mobile phones that have adaptive charging, if they are determined for us to use EVs then this form of charging will have to be installed
its also been mentioned that all services will be installed under pathways instead of under the roads, to stop roads being dug up every few months for one reason or another, this will be the ideal time (if it goes ahead) to put in the cables/charging stations in places where you can`t normally, though I wonder who will pay for it all? probably us as usual
if they can also develop electric motors that run on lower power which I suspect will happen then battery packs can be smaller as well
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I watch Gridwatch daily at odd hours..gridwatch.co.uk/
ANYONE - but anyone who thinks that green energy is going to povide energy overnight to charge electric vehicles clearly does not watch Gridwatch and is as ignorant of teh issues as the politicians who - let's face it - have no clue -see Dieselgate as an example of their cretinoius ignorance...
There is NO solar power at night. On cold winter nights with clear skies, there is often no wind.. So whilst Green energy may contribute 30% odd of our total current power demand, to suggest is can produce 100% reliably at night all summer and winter, day and night is so risibly and evidently stupid in ignorance of the reality of supply.
And if all our cars are electric, most sums suggest demand will double - at night..
So if we want to be all electric by 2040 we should start a MAJOR upgrading of the power distribution network incorporating battery storage as and where it is needed. Planning should start now as some planning permissions will involve long arguments and delays.
Guess what? No-on knows what the technology will do in 2030 let alone 2040 so planning is not really started.. and cannot really start..
It may of course all be possible and easily solved - but the technological breakthrough need to make it has not happened.
Anyone who belives the politicians have any worthwhile ideas should accept counselling :-)
There are small local 2Mw power stations being thrown up now - according to this strangely named company it is possible to get one on line in 5 months.
They are single-cycle gas turbine units running on natural gas so not particulary eco friendly.
www.greenfrogpower.co.uk/
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Re taxation of electric cars. Yes the government will lose tax revenue as people move to electric cars. I don't think that will lead to a big tax rise on electricity because it's used for so many other things already. It's more likley that they'll add it to VED or bring in road pricing.
In 10 years time we won't ALL be driving electric cars but a lot of us will.
But most of us we will still be 'driving' those cars. While I think the move to electric vehicles will gather pace I think the move to fully self-driving ones will be a lot slower.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 08/05/2018 at 00:28
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I don't think that will lead to a big tax rise on electricity because it's used for so many other things already. It's more likley that they'll add it to VED or bring in road pricing.
I do, and they can use existing smart meters to calculate the electric used to charge a car, which will be cheaper than installing ANPR cameras as they are already in place
adding to VED may put people off buying electric, though that will depend on the car price in the first place.
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I think there has been a bit of misquoting here. The original news article said that the government were considering banning any hybrid that could not achieve a 50 mile range on batteries alone, not all hybrids.
Also many people are stating that the country's power generating infrastructure will not be able to cater for everyone driving electric cars. However, everyone is not going to go electric tomorrow. Electric car ownership and the available capacity to charge them will have to grow together and it might well take a hundred years or more to achieve . If there isn't the capacity and charging is difficult, people won't buy the cars no matter what the governmant might like.
Edited by davecooper on 08/05/2018 at 14:07
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