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Both will make for excellent used buys once the market half’s those prices by year two, possibly three in the case of the Dacia.
Edited by SLO76 on 02/06/2024 at 18:13
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Both will make for excellent used buys once the market half’s those prices by year two, possibly three in the case of the Dacia.
Problem is that won't exactly make people buying them new, given how high the depreciation will be. Either that of the manufacturers will have to sell them at a huge loss (with discounts) when new to attract buyers in, assuming they aren't already subsidising them via higher prices on other models, including ICE cars and perhaps post-sales maintenance and parts prices (which wouldn't surprise me in the slightest).
I can easily see many Western car manufacturers going to the wall in the next few years, assuming governments (i.e. the taxpayer) don't secretly subsidise them to keep them afloat, especially when the Chinese firms are now effectively dumping their huge excess capacity on Western markets to destroy the competition abroad and artificially bolster themselves back home, likely at the behest of their government.
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Any new car loses a lot of value in the first 2 or 3 years, yet people still buy them.
The decision to buy new is not just financial - it has to do with status, lack of wear, up to date gizmos, better reliability than s/h, length of warranty, the smell of a new motor., social kudos for being environmentally astute etc.
Smaller more basic car buyers will often be private. Owners may do very low mileages and keep cars for many years. Range is not an issue. EV will reduce running costs if charged at home, and will often be part of a two car household - the other used for longer journeys.
The price of new small EVs is now similar to ICE. There are numerous new ICE at ~£15k price level already being sold - there is no reason why buyers of new EVs at a similar price level will not.
That on a financial basis buying s/h can make more financial sense misses the point!
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List price new in excess of £30,000, a few months old with delivery mileage it’s now easy enough to find at £15,000 or less. I’m not a massive fan of the Corsa but I’d sooner buy this than splurge £22k on a similar sized Citroen or £15k plus on the very basic and cheaply made Dacia. EV’s only make sense bought used, unless you have access to some massive tax payer funded subsidy. At less than £15k this effectively new Corsa makes a strong economic case for itself.
I found this after being asked for my opinion on an identical car with more miles at Arnold Clark that was £2,000 more as per the norm for Arnold Clark these days.
www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202305267805626
Edited by SLO76 on 03/06/2024 at 19:47
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Any new car loses a lot of value in the first 2 or 3 years, yet people still buy them.
Given how much further EVs have been depreciating than ICE, especially petrol cars of late, that will in my view put many off buying, including leasing companies. If the manufacturers themselves have to lower the new prices (and lease / PCP rates) to suit the market, how are they supposed make a profit and plan for the future?
The decision to buy new is not just financial - it has to do with status, lack of wear, up to date gizmos, better reliability than s/h, length of warranty, the smell of a new motor., social kudos for being environmentally astute etc.
Unfortunately, most of those interested in 'status' (including virtue-signalling) have already shelled out for new EVs, as all those high-end Teslas, Audis, BMWs, etc on the road show.
The next body of potential buyers will be far less wealthy people who want value for money (which includes resale values and lease-hire and PCP rates), even if they want a nice looking car that goes well. And that includes people in business as well as private buyers.
Smaller more basic car buyers will often be private. Owners may do very low mileages and keep cars for many years. Range is not an issue. EV will reduce running costs if charged at home, and will often be part of a two car household - the other used for longer journeys.
Unfortunately that doesn't matter when the new price is twice (or more) what they paid for their last car, plus their insurance rockets as well, especially in the current hard financial times with high real-world inflation biting. I suspect far more people in that cohort (myself included) will end up buying another ICE petrol car, and likely not a new one.
The price of new small EVs is now similar to ICE. There are numerous new ICE at ~£15k price level already being sold - there is no reason why buyers of new EVs at a similar price level will not.
If they can be made so cheaply without some form of taxpayer or cross-platform subsidy, then why aren't EVs in the levels above being sold for amounts similar to petrol cars?
Note also that many ordinary folk will have no access to home charging, and do not want to run the proverbial gauntlet of 'public' charging, whether via long charging times (including waits in queues a-la 1970s petrol queues) during their busy lives, broken/faulty (but sometimes not listed ion apps as such) charging stations and potentially unsafe (crime against the person/car) situations at unmanned charging points.
Plus the price of public charging now equalling or more than the cost of refuelling a petrol car.
That on a financial basis buying s/h can make more financial sense misses the point!
Perfectly fine if you're reasonably well off, live in a nice, low crime area with a good number of filling stations and supermarkets with EV charging points, have access to home charging and preferably a roof PV and battery storage system, and/or have a decent amount of time on your hands and don't need to use it that much.
Not so good for everyone else, which is a LOT of people, the vast majority of which this nation depends on being mobile for its well-being.
If the market was left to change organically, that would change, but likely not for 20-30 years at best. It's all being rammed down our throats whether we like it or not (and for the benefit of the rich and powerful at our expense), and, despite what the so-called experts and their mouthpieces in the media and parliaments tell you, 'The Science' behind the 'reasons' for the enforced changes is far from being 'settled', which is a term to describe a political situation, not a statement of fact.
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Perfectly fine if you're reasonably well off, live in a nice, low crime area with a good number of filling stations and supermarkets with EV charging points, have access to home charging and preferably a roof PV and battery storage system..
My ears are burning. You've pigeonholed me perfectly. But you don't think any of those circumstances you list is accidental do you? I bought in a nice area, have solar pv paid for by me and home energy storage again paid for by me. I also organised a specialist EV tarriff. Nowt accidental at all.
And yes owning an EV and no other car has been working 'perfectly' for me these last three years. Haven't needed pretty much any public chargers even though there's now over 60,000 of them in the UK.
Which is why I am certain an awful lot of my fellow Brits could easily run an EV with little to no change to their lifestyle. It's mostly fud spread by curmudgeon commentators that's frightening them. If you can home charge its a slam dunk.
Public chargers for me are an emergency use or when I do longer trips than my EVs range. They drive better, quiet easy to live with and best of all your not sending money to the ME countries that are already richer than God. Win win.
Edited by Ethan Edwards on 04/06/2024 at 16:15
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Perfectly fine if you're reasonably well off, live in a nice, low crime area with a good number of filling stations and supermarkets with EV charging points, have access to home charging and preferably a roof PV and battery storage system..
My ears are burning. You've pigeonholed me perfectly. But you don't think any of those circumstances you list is accidental do you? I bought in a nice area, have solar pv paid for by me and home energy storage again paid for by me. I also organised a specialist EV tarriff. Nowt accidental at all.
Nothing wrong with that - other than actually owning an EV and having a purpose-installed charging point, that's what my sister and BIL have. It's just that loads of people (probably the majority) don't and won't any time soon, and yet we're being forced at break-neck speed to change over to electric, and IMHO, under false pretences that really only benefit those who already have a LOT of wealth and power, and partly paid for by those who cannot afford / aren't able to change.
And yes owning an EV and no other car has been working 'perfectly' for me these last three years. Haven't needed pretty much any public chargers even though there's now over 60,000 of them in the UK.
Which is why I am certain an awful lot of my fellow Brits could easily run an EV with little to no change to their lifestyle. It's mostly fud spread by curmudgeon commentators that's frightening them. If you can home charge its a slam dunk.
Maybe a good deal could, but...see above.
Public chargers for me are an emergency use or when I do longer trips than my EVs range. They drive better, quiet easy to live with and best of all your not sending money to the ME countries that are already richer than God. Win win.
Good for you - anyone whose situation means owning an EV is a good cost-effective long term solution or their finances mean they can do as they please, great. Just make the alternatives affordable and leave the market to change at an organic pace, not forced.
As a flat owner and now not well off, I cannot afford to buy one of these, not even second hand - especially with the risk of a potentially huge bill if something major fails, and I have nowhere to charge one at home, and likely won't for a long time, if it is technically feasible (physical, legal and monetary constraints). I would have to use public chargers, which aren't that plentiful in my area.
If I was still working in my former career, I'd regularly be doing reasonable length trips (aside from the 10,000 mile commute pa) for work as well as to visit family or to holiday. No resident living here can install their own charger (communal car parks), so earning a decent salary wouldn't be a way around it for me, at least unless I moved to a house with a driveway.
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If legislation provided you with the right to have one or more charging stations in the communal car park, that might make things simpler.
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If legislation provided you with the right to have one or more charging stations in the communal car park, that might make things simpler.
Building Regulations require one charger per home for all new builds.
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Yes you make reasonable points.
If I understand correctly you've retired? Fixed income?
Oddly enough I'm staring down the barrel of retirement myself. Currently all is hunky dory, but the prospect of a fixed income and rampant inflation is the very reason I bought an EV and the home battery. To minimise my outgoings now, so I don't retire into genteel poverty. Saw the problem and I'm working on solving it before it happens.
Should Smarmer decide to loot the pension system again then I'll simply retire immediately and take the cash, so Reeves can't get her mitts on my cash. Doubt I'd be the only one too. But EVs..
For anyone buying an EV without access to home charging it is a bad idea imo. Unless Starmer creates the Great British EV and Unicorn public charging company offering 10p a kw then it's really not likely to change anytime soon.
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we're being forced at break-neck speed to change over to electric
Still a bit vague on what exactly is meant by this?. Who is being forced into EV's and by what means?
People who have decided to only buy new cars and who have decided they cant keep each car for more than a year or two, will at some point beyond 2030 find themselves having to get an EV. But that is solely down to their own choices, nobody is forcing them.
So the use of terms like "being forced into EV's" is both alarmist and inaccurate. And seeing as you seem to have quite happy running a car to an age well beyond what most would consider acceptable (and have the ability to choose something reliable in the first place), I fail to see why your views on the matter are so strong anyway?.
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I can easily see many Western car manufacturers going to the wall in the next few years, assuming governments (i.e. the taxpayer) don't secretly subsidise them to keep them afloat, especially when the Chinese firms are now effectively dumping their huge excess capacity on Western markets to destroy the competition abroad and artificially bolster themselves back home, likely at the behest of their government.
China sells ~10m EVs pa in its domestic market other world markets are trivial by comparison. They have:
- a government which actively supports Chinese car manufacturers
- strategies to source scarce materials at lowest possible prices
- planning regimes which allow rapid investment in facilities
- low labour costs (although increasing)
- limited H&S and compliance requirements
- massive economies of scale
Western companies have difficulty in competing and many will fail. Consumers vote with their wallets and buy what they consider best value - not just cars but most consumer products.
The price paid for creating tariff barriers to protect UK and EU manufacturers is to limit the material goods that consumers can afford.
There are some harsh realities to deal with - it is not new - even in the car business traditional UK manufacturers were displaced firstly by Japanese and then Korean producers.
Edited by Terry W on 03/06/2024 at 19:55
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I can easily see many Western car manufacturers going to the wall in the next few years, assuming governments (i.e. the taxpayer) don't secretly subsidise them to keep them afloat, especially when the Chinese firms are now effectively dumping their huge excess capacity on Western markets to destroy the competition abroad and artificially bolster themselves back home, likely at the behest of their government.
China sells ~10m EVs pa in its domestic market other world markets are trivial by comparison.
If it is 'trivial', why are they coming over to the West at all in large numbers?
They have:
- a government which actively supports Chinese car manufacturers
- strategies to source scarce materials at lowest possible prices
- planning regimes which allow rapid investment in facilities
- low labour costs (although increasing)
- limited H&S and compliance requirements
- massive economies of scale
Western companies have difficulty in competing and many will fail. Consumers vote with their wallets and buy what they consider best value - not just cars but most consumer products.
Don't you think it unfair if heavily subsidised products severely undercut those trying to compete? How is that a 'fair market'? BTW - that's exactly what solar PV and wind tech have been propped up by for decades, despite its proponents saying it's 'mature' and 'cost-effective'.
The price paid for creating tariff barriers to protect UK and EU manufacturers is to limit the material goods that consumers can afford.
Obviously they aren't working, and yet governments still allow in cheap Chinese goods and allow home grown manufacturers to fail, whilst doing nothing to push back against poor labour and business practices of the cheap foreign competitors and their communist masters, who are using various unethical and often illegal methods to secure exclusive rights to rare earth metals and other very limited resources.
There are some harsh realities to deal with - it is not new - even in the car business traditional UK manufacturers were displaced firstly by Japanese and then Korean producers.
I don't recall them doing the same as the CCP-backed firms. They mainly made similar quality but cheaper or superior quality and similarly priced products, until China entered the market for consumer electronics, and, more recently, cars.
Unfortunately, what the CCP and their minion firms are doing, along with certain bought-and-paid-for backers in the West is deliberately destabilising our economies in a way and on a scale that's never been seen before.
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<< Don't you think it unfair if heavily subsidised products severely undercut those trying to compete? How is that a 'fair market'
... yet governments still allow in cheap Chinese goods and allow home grown manufacturers to fail, whilst doing nothing to push back against poor labour and business practices ? >>
Life is not necessarily 'fair', Andy. That is a complaint commonly heard in the school playground, and something which is not easily corrected without paying a different penalty somewhere else. The unfairness will probably persist until Chinese labour costs match ours - or if you prefer, we accept lower incomes ?
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I don't get the argument on used prices for EVs being unaffordable. They are no more and in fact often lower than an equivalent ICE?
The only reason they are "higher" is they haven't been out long so they are nearly all under 4 years old. However, guess what, under 4 year old ICE cars are all more than 10 year old ones as well and always have been.
So, no, if you usually buy 10 year old cars you are not going to get much selection of EVs yet but you won't get much selection of current ICE cars or auto petrols even as you'll be looking at what the market was buying in bulk in 2014 which was mainly manual diesels.
And guess what, in 2014 the 10 year old car buyer would have been stuck with a choice of what the market was buying in 2004.....
Edited by pd on 06/06/2024 at 08:34
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Agree totally with PD.
Cars driven with reasonable restraint and serviced appropriately will comfortably last 15-20 years and 200k. In the 1960-70s cars were mobile rust buckets that would often crumble before the decade was up. Major mechanical failure common by 60k.
Gizmos and fluff aside a 15 year old car is entirely capable of providing reliable comfortable transport. The need (not desire) to buy a new car every 2/3 years has gone.
The US created the philosophy of built in obsolescence to keep new car sales up. The future looks very different
- increasing longevity will limit future sales
- driverless is legalised in the UK - actual uptake may be a few years away
- increasing urban populations and congestion reduces car ownership
Those who started driving before 2000 may still see cars as objects of desire - proof of status and freedom when more performance = greater street cred.
For current generations they are increasingly regulated tools to get flexibly, comfortably, conveniently and safely from A to B.
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I was browsing auto trader yesterday and came across brand new Nissan Leafs reduced from over £30k to £18k. Seems like a bargain if you're after an EV. Prices of used ones are very tempting too. Times have changed.
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I may have this incorrect, but don't Leaf's only use Chademo charging ( old tech)? More recent ones may now be different? The European standard is CCS2 and they aren't the same. So a paucity of Chademo public chargers lessens it's utility.
Second Leaf's traction battery is air cooled every other EV including other Nissans are now liquid cooled. Why? battery degradation. Better temperature control is an important factor. Say your going cross country and using fast chargers. If the battery overheats it won't charge until it cools.
So go into such a purchase with eyes wide open.
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Gizmos and fluff aside a 15 year old car is entirely capable of providing reliable comfortable transport. The need (not desire) to buy a new car every 2/3 years has gone.
The US created the philosophy of built in obsolescence to keep new car sales up. The future looks very different.
Indeed. But which parts of the car-making industry will be happy with (or adapt to) reduced sales volume ? Or will it just push prices higher ?
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Gizmos and fluff aside a 15 year old car is entirely capable of providing reliable comfortable transport. The need (not desire) to buy a new car every 2/3 years has gone.
The US created the philosophy of built in obsolescence to keep new car sales up. The future looks very different.
Indeed. But which parts of the car-making industry will be happy with (or adapt to) reduced sales volume ? Or will it just push prices higher ?
It's a competitive market. The likely outcome:
- short term - cheaper cars as manufacturers compete on price, quality and gizmos to maintain market share
- medium term - weaker and less successful manufacturers will be taken over or go out of business
- long term - prices will steadily increase back to an equilibrium level where surviving manufacturers can make sufficient profit to invest in product development, pay dividends, fund borrowings etc
Precisely who will succeed or fail is speculation, and a function of government action on tariffs and other barriers to trade.
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Every morning when I step out the door I have a choice of two cars in which to carry out my daily 20 mile each way commute, a fully loaded Mercedes C-Class or a Nissan Leaf. I opt for the EV every time. It’s just so relaxing to drive, it just soothes the miles away and as a bonus it costs a fraction of the money to cover those miles. That I’m not giving money to some of the world’s most appalling regimes when I drive it only adds to the appeal.
I’m not 100% sold on EV’s, the range is too limited on any that are financially viable, and the cost to repair both car and battery pack remains far far too high. But as the aftermarket industry gets its teeth into them these costs will fall, thus extending their lifespan to match conventional cars. There are firms who repair battery packs already and costs are dropping as more competition enters the market.
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There are firms who repair battery packs already and costs are dropping as more competition enters the market.
How do they get the battery packs out of the car? I know that hybrid batteries can be repaired and it's possible for one fit person to lift it out to work on, but batteries for pure electric must be much heavier.
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There are firms who repair battery packs already and costs are dropping as more competition enters the market.
How do they get the battery packs out of the car? I know that hybrid batteries can be repaired and it's possible for one fit person to lift it out to work on, but batteries for pure electric must be much heavier.
Batteries are usually made in modular form: Except BYD where incorporated into the body shell so unreplaceable?
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Agree totally with PD.
Cars driven with reasonable restraint and serviced appropriately will comfortably last 15-20 years and 200k. In the 1960-70s cars were mobile rust buckets that would often crumble before the decade was up. Major mechanical failure common by 60k.
Gizmos and fluff aside a 15 year old car is entirely capable of providing reliable comfortable transport. The need (not desire) to buy a new car every 2/3 years has gone.
The US created the philosophy of built in obsolescence to keep new car sales up. The future looks very different
- increasing longevity will limit future sales
- driverless is legalised in the UK - actual uptake may be a few years away
- increasing urban populations and congestion reduces car ownership
Those who started driving before 2000 may still see cars as objects of desire - proof of status and freedom when more performance = greater street cred.
For current generations they are increasingly regulated tools to get flexibly, comfortably, conveniently and safely from A to B.
Problem is that many 'gizmos' are legally required (for 'environmental' or 'safety' reasons [even if in reality most don't give anything like the net gain we're sold) and a good number have significant interactions with other critical components of the car, including the ECU. Often a failure in one means the car is un-driveable and needs lengthy and expensive TLC at the main dealership.
Yes, this applies just as much to ICE to EVs, but the difference is that with ICE they've had far longer to refine how they work together. To me, EVs are still in the 'bet test' phase of their development, precisely because manufacturers rushed the R&D to meet arbitrary (legal) targets for sales figures that have 0% to do with improving the environment or health of people.
Scientists knew for years before the 'Encouraged' (read forced) move from petrol to diesel was bad because of Nox and particulates, now the same is happening for ICE to EVs, just in other ways. the politics, power games and $$$ is sadly getting in the way of it all. Again.
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