The 5 isn’t being officially unveiled until Geneva at the end of February, so I’d say that speculation on its list price three months ahead of that is a touch speculative. Don’t forget, also, that Dacia’s Spring is hitting the same showrooms in 2024 at a lower price. www.dacia.co.uk/vehicles/spring.html
Hopefully a much lower price!
Especially since under the Dacia badges is the 2015 Renault Kwid...........
But even the electric version will have been around for 5 years by the time it hits the UK
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There is clear evidence of market pressures beginning to work - several manufacturers are introducing small cars with a usable ~200m range at prices below £30k - some £20-25k.
That the Chinese are putting real pressure on European manufacturers with their lower manufacturing costs is driving prices down. It is a choice - cheaper motoring or protect EU companies. Consumers will mostly vote with their wallets.
Those who bemoan the still high cost of new EVs should note that only ~15% of cars on UK roads were bought new by their current owners. 85% are bought second hand - many are unlikely ever (certainly not often) able to buy a brand new car be it EV or ICE. Nothing changes!
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Those who bemoan the still high cost of new EVs should note that only ~15% of cars on UK roads were bought new by their current owners. 85% are bought second hand - many are unlikely ever (certainly not often) able to buy a brand new car be it EV or ICE. Nothing changes!
And how many of those 15% were bought rather than leased?
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There is clear evidence of market pressures beginning to work - several manufacturers are introducing small cars with a usable ~200m range at prices below £30k - some £20-25k.
I hardly think that £20k for a small car is termed as 'affordable'. Not that long ago similar sized new cars could be had for half that amount.
Pandemic manufacturing and sales restrictions during lockdown periods aside, the vast increases in the cost of small and city cars (and forcing many manufacturers to ditch them in ICE format altogether, even big sellers) has been a big contributor to the 2021+ vast upswing in the price of second hand vehicles, especially at the small size end of the market.
That the Chinese are putting real pressure on European manufacturers with their lower manufacturing costs is driving prices down. It is a choice - cheaper motoring or protect EU companies. Consumers will mostly vote with their wallets.
Production costs in China are on the way up as their population becomes more middle class, which is why more goods (not cars - yet) like clothing are being manufactured elsewhere, e.g. Indonesia.
Whilst Chinese car manufacturers are slowly catching up those from Europe, South Korea and Japan, as yet they haven't really broken through. Whilst in the UK, sales of MGs have done quite nicely of late, I still believe they have enough driveability, quality and backup issues that may (like with Proton 20 years+ ago) put that rise into reverse.
I agree that the EU is probably likely to somehow 'protect' local vested interests via putting tariffs on Chinese-made cars if the major players complain enough (or using 'other incentives').
Those who bemoan the still high cost of new EVs should note that only ~15% of cars on UK roads were bought new by their current owners. 85% are bought second hand - many are unlikely ever (certainly not often) able to buy a brand new car be it EV or ICE. Nothing changes!
The problem is that unless those currently 'new' cars that are very expensive (EVs or not) suddenly have shockingly bad depreciation (and there are signs EVs at least are, making buying one a bad financial prospect for both the private buyer or those offering them on PCP), then second hand sales of them will be very disappointing, which means increasingly more and more people will be buying older cars than before, increasing demand and keeping prices way to high.
That's a disaster in the making, rather like ballooning house prices, especially when so many people are buying on credit these days and an economic collapse (and thus 1930s-style depression) is still very much on the cards, only kept at bay via dodgy financial sleights-of-hand by Central Banks and governments to pluck more and more fake money out of thin air to temporarily inflate away the huge debts the world has.
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Although it is easy to look solely at the purchase price, it is worth noting that EV fuel costs are currently very much lower than ICE.
Based on Autotrader - new ICE cars start at ~£12k (Picanto) and £20k gets you a Vitara, 208 etc. Go to £25k for an EV and there is reasonable choice.
Whether £20k is affordable depends on personal finances. Leases for similar cars cost from ~£200 pm. There has never been a time when all could afford a new car.
An EV (at 4 miles per kwh) costs around 7p per mile for electricity at standard rate. ICE at (say) 50mpg costs 14p per mile. Over 10000 miles pa a saving of £700.
Paying more for an EV can make sense. On a lease it is easy to see that an extra (say) £50 per month is covered by fuel not purchased. One could argue endlessly about zero cost PV charging vs high cost fast chargers - but a waste of effort.
If you believe that depreciation on EVs is shockingly bad, you don't have to buy one - or buy one that has already depreciated. Folk can make up their own minds what to buy and why - it doesn't matter what you think.
Whilst in some ways I share your concern about the level of household debt in the UK, but it has not changed significantly in 15 years. United Kingdom Households Debt To GDP (tradingeconomics.com)
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Although it is easy to look solely at the purchase price, it is worth noting that EV fuel costs are currently very much lower than ICE.
For an awful lot of folks it's the monthly PCP cost not Cash that determines choices.
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If you believe that depreciation on EVs is shockingly bad, you don't have to buy one - or buy one that has already depreciated
Not everyone is in rent a car for life band. Different people have different needs. I think current group of EV owners can be broadly classed under 2 groups
- Bought on principle e.g. assuming helping environment
- Bought because of tax or related incentives
Lower running cost does not help if it is eclipsed by higher purchase cost.
The key question is, why an average consumer (who has does not care/believe environmental aspect) would buy EV in the first place when ICE/HEV is cheaper, more convenient and offers some environmental creds (P/HEVs).
Most purchase decisions (not just cars) are pivoted around 2 factors - cost and convenience. There are sometimes a 3rd factor like desirability/fashion statement etc.
EV currently loses out on both cost and convenience. More so, battery technology is evolving fast meaning future EVs will be better (just like phones). This is clearly demonstrated how Tesla's Cybertruck batteries are lot more efficient compared to its previous models.
IMHO, to encourage public to buy EVs, the cost needs to come down and convenience should be at par with ICE cars. There should be options to upgrade battery (at a reduced price) or make batteries modular (i.e. not fixed with the car itself).
Just read that Toyota axed hydrogen cars. So EV is indeed the future but the technology needs to mature further before it achieves widespread adoption.
www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/hybrid-electric-cars/toyo.../
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"Tax or related incentives" = cost.
As for convenience; at the risk of repeating myself indefinitely, I have off street parking and found an EV more convenient.
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<< Lower running cost does not help if it is eclipsed by higher purchase cost. >>
Well, it will mitigate the higher purchase cost, especially if you do high mileage !
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Lower running costs are indeed no incentive if you've paid out many a thousand over the ice car price.
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Affordable is a bogus non sensical way of describing cost. Figures work better. A luxury yacht is affordable to some, as is a billion pound house, and a Rolls Royce ( this years model)
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There is clear evidence of market pressures beginning to work - several manufacturers are introducing small cars with a usable ~200m range at prices below £30k - some £20-25k.
I hardly think that £20k for a small car is termed as 'affordable'. Not that long ago similar sized new cars could be had for half that amount.
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You are forgetting the world has been through a period of high inflation. That £20k car even allowing for inflation alone (no price increases) was a £15995 car pre-COVID. You can probably get a couple of grand off most £20k cars so actually it was more like a £14k car in 2019. "Nearly new" deals are also coming back on stream.
Yes, new cars are more expensive but what isn't?
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There is clear evidence of market pressures beginning to work - several manufacturers are introducing small cars with a usable ~200m range at prices below £30k - some £20-25k.
I hardly think that £20k for a small car is termed as 'affordable'. Not that long ago similar sized new cars could be had for half that amount.
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You are forgetting the world has been through a period of high inflation. That £20k car even allowing for inflation alone (no price increases) was a £15995 car pre-COVID. You can probably get a couple of grand off most £20k cars so actually it was more like a £14k car in 2019. "Nearly new" deals are also coming back on stream.
Yes, new cars are more expensive but what isn't?
I wasn't forgetting the high inflation period - that inflation on 'ordinary' ICE cars is partly due to the affects of the pandemic response, but a decent amount is also due to increased vehicle emissions and 'safety' regulations, most of which in my view have been wrongly implemented at all (i.e. the cost-benefit of doing so is very poor) and/or hurried through by virtue-signally legislators to impress the media and certain 'stakeholders' (who aren't the vast majority of voters).
About 5 years or so ago, many 'city cars' would have an RRP around the £10k mark, some less, and with deals you could often get a base spec for well under that. Now most start (you'd be lucky to get much of a deal now) at nearly twice that, if they offer such a model at all.
Many makes have stopped making city cars and even superminis because they cannot sell them at the higher prices to make a profit precisely because they MUST come with all the new fangled emissions kit, and to some degree, safety kit. They'd be slated in the MSM for a 2 or 3 star NCAP rating, despite the actual safety being better the those measured under the NCAP standard just a few years ago and would get 5 stars. They aren't 'unsafe' at all.
EVs are even 'worse', given how expensive the equipment is in relation to the size and performance of the car. This is why small car sales have been dropping away and manufacturers are just making most new ones a LOT bigger, but once the initial 'rush' of the rich and virtue-signalling well-off middle classes dies down, who else is left to buy high-spec larger SUV/crossover MHEVs / PHEVs / EVs? Very few I would guess.
In such circumstances, what can car manufacturers do, especially when really daft policies like ours (and many other governments) mandating they sell X% EVs per year or they get fined - all this does is compound the issue, because it means manufacturers will either have to sell EVs at a loss (and increasingly so as the market shrinks) or offer them for sale at price to make a decent return, but have few sales and thus get heavily fined and/or downsize the company.
Similarly with second hand cars - I can see many sellers going under soon. A local outlet that was a Vauxhall dealer was bought about 2 years ago by a multi-franchise outfit (many different makes) for second-hand sales (often other-make PXes from their other dealerships) and Vauxhall/general servicing. From what I saw on Thursday, they've just closed, at least the car sales part, as all of their stock was being carted off in transporter lorries.
My local Mazda dealer (and noticeably many other main dealers across all makes in the area) have vastly less second hand cars for sale than a year ago. Prices are now falling, so how are they going to make a profit?
In my view, many Western car firms will go under in the next decade if the policy direction continues, which will only benefit the Chinese (as it did with electronics and clothing) until their cost base increases sufficiently so that they get affected in a similar way.
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City cars are not now close to £20k. For less than £14k you could buy a brand new Picanto, Fiat 500, MG3, Sandero, or C3 (Autotrader)
New car sales in every month in 2023 are higher than the same month in 2022. For every new car sold there is a second hand car which needs to be sold to the next owner.
Unless they are going into stock they must be selling - trade in values may be down, dealers may be making less profit, but if prices are lower it benefits the new owner.
Many s/h cars are now sold through car supermarkets and online which increasingly dominate the up to 4/5 year old market. Main dealers will find themselves side-lined by leasing and PCP companies who want a simple way to dispose of end of term stock.
BEV sales in 2023 are up 36% compared to 2022. This may not be as high as the government wants but it is an increasing market. If manufacturers need to reduce prices to increase sales that can only to the benefit of buyers.
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City cars are not now close to £20k. For less than £14k you could buy a brand new Picanto, Fiat 500, MG3, Sandero, or C3 (Autotrader)
Good luck finding one, and that's base models with practically nothing on them and slowwww. Nothing from Ford, VW, etc, etc. To get a reasonable spec (but not flashy), you need a LOT more than the base spec models. I checked the KIA website and noted that the Picanto 1 is a 66PS 1L petrol and no A/C.
Even so, many of those cars were costing well under £10k not that long ago.
New car sales in every month in 2023 are higher than the same month in 2022. For every new car sold there is a second hand car which needs to be sold to the next owner.
That's hardly a great thing, given how much lower sales are compared to prior to the pandemic, and sales had, if I recall, not been that great over the previous few years prior to that precisely because of the reasons I gave. That new laws/regulations made manufacturers drop many small cars is to me rather revealing.
Unless they are going into stock they must be selling - trade in values may be down, dealers may be making less profit, but if prices are lower it benefits the new owner.
Many s/h cars are now sold through car supermarkets and online which increasingly dominate the up to 4/5 year old market. Main dealers will find themselves side-lined by leasing and PCP companies who want a simple way to dispose of end of term stock.
Motorpoint, for example is currently selling 4778 cars. Whilst that's well up on the 3000 or so during the worst of the lockdown periods, it's still significantly below the 6000 - 7000 when I bought my car in 2006, which stayed roughly constant for the next 10 years, until, I would note, many of the new emissions and safety regs came into effect.
This appeared to bump up the price of many smaller / basic cars to unaffordable levels for many, and to me likely contributing to a drop in sales of new cars which won't be made up by bigger ones for obvious reasons.
BEV sales in 2023 are up 36% compared to 2022. This may not be as high as the government wants but it is an increasing market. If manufacturers need to reduce prices to increase sales that can only to the benefit of buyers.
Manufacturers will only reduced BEV prices if they can do so and still make a profit on them - pointless otherwise, given profitability is the whole point of running a business. Even for Elon Musk, who dropped prices on Teslas, won't be able to keep that going indefinitely.
Selling products at a loss when sales of other products aren't good (for the reasons I gave) either won't exactly be good for business. There's only so much they can do to reduce costs, especially via improved engineering, which takes many years to R&D.
The government mandates are just ridiculous as regards sales numbers and fines. It's not as though the car manufacturers can make people buy EVs if they just can't afford them. If it means their car sales tank on their own or are deliberately engineered to avoid the savage fines, surely this will lead to many firms going under or being bought up by the Chinese a-la MG.
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Many makes have stopped making city cars and even superminis because they cannot sell them at the higher prices to make a profit precisely because they MUST come with all the new fangled emissions kit, and to some degree, safety kit. They'd be slated in the MSM for a 2 or 3 star NCAP rating, despite the actual safety being better the those measured under the NCAP standard just a few years ago and would get 5 stars. They aren't 'unsafe' at all.
EVs are even 'worse', given how expensive the equipment is in relation to the size and performance of the car. This is why small car sales have been dropping away and manufacturers are just making most new ones a LOT bigger, but once the initial 'rush' of the rich and virtue-signalling well-off middle classes dies down, who else is left to buy high-spec larger SUV/crossover MHEVs / PHEVs / EVs? Very few I would guess.
There have been no new substantial emission changes since Euro 6 in 2015 and, for petrol, changes since 2005 have actually been quite minor (hence Euro 4 petrol cars being ULEZ compliant). Euro 7, although watered down, presents new challenges in 2025 but isn't the reason for current prices.
The main reason is European manufactures having an ever increasing cost base on energy, labour and components making it difficult to make a profit on smaller cars. It was, in fact, ALWAYS difficult to make a profit on them hence the extended production time for many models.
The good news is the smaller car isn't dead and EV might be its saviour. There are some really interesting models coming along soon including the aforementioned 5. I agree European manufacturers are under a big threat from China and China will be providing many volume models. It'll be interesting to see how much the BYD Seagull ends up costing in the UK as an example of a cheap, small, EV which could redefine the market.
I think you are being far too negative on the future. Long term EVs have the potential to be cheap and have great packaging. There will always be cheap cars about - you can find cheap, decent, cars on the used market today if you look and there is no particular reason that won't continue. I doubt a 10 year old example of one of today's EVs will be worth any more than a 12-plate ICE car is now.
Edited by pd on 03/12/2023 at 18:35
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Many makes have stopped making city cars and even superminis because they cannot sell them at the higher prices to make a profit precisely because they MUST come with all the new fangled emissions kit, and to some degree, safety kit. They'd be slated in the MSM for a 2 or 3 star NCAP rating, despite the actual safety being better the those measured under the NCAP standard just a few years ago and would get 5 stars. They aren't 'unsafe' at all.
EVs are even 'worse', given how expensive the equipment is in relation to the size and performance of the car. This is why small car sales have been dropping away and manufacturers are just making most new ones a LOT bigger, but once the initial 'rush' of the rich and virtue-signalling well-off middle classes dies down, who else is left to buy high-spec larger SUV/crossover MHEVs / PHEVs / EVs? Very few I would guess.
There have been no new substantial emission changes since Euro 6 in 2015 and, for petrol, changes since 2005 have actually been quite minor (hence Euro 4 petrol cars being ULEZ compliant). Euro 7, although watered down, presents new challenges in 2025 but isn't the reason for current prices.
The main reason is European manufactures having an ever increasing cost base on energy, labour and components making it difficult to make a profit on smaller cars. It was, in fact, ALWAYS difficult to make a profit on them hence the extended production time for many models.
The good news is the smaller car isn't dead and EV might be its saviour. There are some really interesting models coming along soon including the aforementioned 5. I agree European manufacturers are under a big threat from China and China will be providing many volume models. It'll be interesting to see how much the BYD Seagull ends up costing in the UK as an example of a cheap, small, EV which could redefine the market.
I think you are being far too negative on the future. Long term EVs have the potential to be cheap and have great packaging. There will always be cheap cars about - you can find cheap, decent, cars on the used market today if you look and there is no particular reason that won't continue. I doubt a 10 year old example of one of today's EVs will be worth any more than a 12-plate ICE car is now.
EVs will ONLY be a draw to people on lower incomes if they can easily, safely and cheaply charge it at home and/or somewhere convenient in their area/on the way to work, etc, like with ICE filling stations.
The latter is still a long way off (with charging prices going up, not down), and with the former, most people in that affordability bracket live in flats and terraced housing, where home charging is either physically impossible (nowhere to put the chargers or their car is parked on-road/away from their home with no 'charging post' nearby or that is secure [vandalism]), unsafe/unsecure, or not allowed by their home's lease agreement.
Where I live (a flat on a 20yo development), we don't have the space, and just as important, not the money to pay for the charging infrastructure needed to install them, even if we did have the space.
To save that up would take many years, with those contributing early on perhaps never benefitting from doing so - hardly fair. As a Residents Association (private - all unadopted roads, so no council help there - quite common in newer estates these days), we/re also not allowed to borrow money either (not uncommon), so how exactly would it be done?
I think I'm being realistic - I'm not saying these thing will never happen, but they are being rushed through on way too short a timescale before a) the tech is mature (reliable AND cheap without taxpayer subsidy) and b) the infrastructure is there (including electricity generation and distribution) to cope.
Not because the world genuinely IS experiencing a 'climate emergency' or 'global boiling' or whatever scarified buzzwords the puppet politicians and their rich and powerful handlers think up this week, but because those pushing it are doing so to significantly benefit them and their control over the ordinary people of this world.
People are now waking up to the horrendous depreciation of EVs - now that won't be a problem to the 'don't care' brigade - the ultra wealthy and well off virtue-signallers who can take the financial hit in return for 'appearing to look good' in the eyes of the MSM, but going down the scale, someone who buys a £30k EV hoping it'll last well until they PX it for another after (say) 5 years will be in for a BIG shock when they find it is practically worthless and far less than a similarly priced ICE car.
There's a big financial shock coming (the authorities have been desperately scrambling to inflate the debts away and hide the malfeasance for decades now), and people won't take kindly to their still quite new EV being worth buttons after just a short period of time.
That's why (as well as the fire/insurance and charging/usage issues) demand has already started to wane, and will do far more so as the cohort of the very well off doesn't need to buy an EV because they already have one they bought a year or two ago.
I bought my current car nearly 18 years ago for £10k. Why would I pay 3x that amount to buy something similar in size (I don't need all the extra performance) but that has realistically half the range and which I have no chance in charging at home and very limited elsewhere in my area? Especially as the economy could go pop at any time?
I mean, seriously - what were the politicians and officials (so-called 'experts') thinking (of all stripes) by pushing / introducing such mandates I've mentioned precisely when most people and the wider nation(s) could not afford them? They must either be unbelievably daft or controlled by people who don't have our best interests at heart (well, you know which I believe).
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Fair number of small cars still available in the £15-£17k range.
Certainly the pandemic and follow on supply chain problems kept real prices near to list until perhaps as late as this year. I was kicking my heels in a joint Citroen and Vauxhall dealership on Monday and there were new unregistered cars in the showroom stickered with very significant discounts from list.
I'm happy to be confronted with evidence I'm wrong but have the major advances in crashworthiness and on board safety etc gadgetry happened since 2020? A lot of what looks and feels new does little more than tie pre existing stuff together and control it via a tablet type screen which won't be costing thousands.
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Apparently Tebay services has run out of fuel due to the inclement weather. Luckily its unlikely they've run out of Electricity for recharging my EV.
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Apparently Tebay services has run out of fuel due to the inclement weather. Luckily its unlikely they've run out of Electricity for recharging my EV.
As long as the inclement weather has not knocked out the electricity supply of course ;-)
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Perhaps but a maybe is still better than a definite no fuel available.
Give it up, stop making people who you wouldn't like to meet, richer.
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Regarding the snow affecting Cumbia . I would prefer to be stranded in an ICE car than an EV as it’s likely to keep you warm longer.
My neighbour got held up in a traffic jam on the M1 in his Taycan and the car had to be recovered and he was rescued and completed his journey in an ICE car
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Regarding the snow affecting Cumbia . I would prefer to be stranded in an ICE car than an EV as it’s likely to keep you warm longer.
So you'd rather be stranded in an ICE car with, say, an eighth of a tank of fuel rather than an EV with three quarters of a charge?
At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, how long either will keep you warm will depend solely on how much "fuel" each has!.
My neighbour got held up in a traffic jam on the M1 in his Taycan and the car had to be recovered and he was rescued and completed his journey in an ICE car
All that means is that he didn't have a lot of charge left when he got stuck in stationary traffic. Same thing would have happened had he been in an ICE car with a more or less empty fuel tank.
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It must have been a long hold up (or they were very low on charge).
An EV typically draws 1kW to keep the cabin heated or cooled, so with even the Taycan’s smaller battery option (79kW/h) that’s over three days.
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You do realise an EV will keep you warm for two days. Just how long a delay were you anticipating?
When idling your using a lot more energy ( and wasting a lot) but a stationary EV uses very little. It's just efficiency. A 200mile EV 50kwh has the equivalent of a gallon and a half of energy onboard. Where I believe 33.7kwh is equivalent to a Gallon of unleaded .
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In this case the Taycan had to be recovered to a charge point . But an ICE could be on the way if the rescue services delivered some fuel !
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In this case the Taycan had to be recovered to a charge point . But an ICE could be on the way if the rescue services delivered some fuel !
ISTR that some rescue vehicles now have on board chargers to get enough 'juice' into an EV for it to get home or to a proper charging point.
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In this case the Taycan had to be recovered to a charge point . But an ICE could be on the way if the rescue services delivered some fuel !
ISTR that some rescue vehicles now have on board chargers to get enough 'juice' into an EV for it to get home or to a proper charging point.
Presumably a Diesel or petrol powered generator.:-)
Not being snidey but oh the irony...hope the genny has a DPF...
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In this case the Taycan had to be recovered to a charge point . But an ICE could be on the way if the rescue services delivered some fuel !
ISTR that some rescue vehicles now have on board chargers to get enough 'juice' into an EV for it to get home or to a proper charging point.
Presumably a Diesel or petrol powered generator.:-)
Not being snidey but oh the irony...hope the genny has a DPF...
Could always be done from a charged battery.
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It's pretty nigh impossible to inadvertently run out of power. After all when was the last time you spluttered to a halt out of petrol? Right pretty much never. There are now over 45000 public chargers in the UK. If you're going to run out of power and be stuck, you'd have to really work at it..
Your conversation regarding this is simply pub talk. Mate of a mate, well his mate reckons his neighbours mate has an atom bomb in his loft. It's all true yada yada..
Edited by Ethan Edwards on 07/12/2023 at 17:53
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The 5 isn’t being officially unveiled until Geneva at the end of February, so I’d say that speculation on its list price three months ahead of that is a touch speculative. Don’t forget, also, that Dacia’s Spring is hitting the same showrooms in 2024 at a lower price. www.dacia.co.uk/vehicles/spring.html
The Dacia Spring is available in France to individuals (private owners) from €15,800.
A further deduction of €2500 can be obtained by sc***ping a diesel or petrol vehicle.
Initial price of €20,800 before deduction of the ecological bonus
Price including tax for full purchase (battery included) excluding options for individuals according to recommended manufacturer's price. Ecological bonus deducted set at 27% of the acquisition cost including tax of the new vehicle up to €5,000 (decree no. 2022-1761 of 12/30/2022). See www.service-public.fr. Conversion bonus of €2,500 not deducted, subject to eligibility and sc***ping of a private vehicle or van registered before 2011 for a diesel or before 2006 for a gasoline.
www.dacia.fr/gamme-electrique-et-hybride/spring-el...l
(For the full conditions click the i symbol next to the €15,800 price)
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