Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - De Sisti

What do you think the government's current proposal* to push back the end of sales of new diesel and petrol cars (to 2035) will do to car prices?

* I heard it on the 6 o'clock evening news on Radio 4 today.

Edited by _ORB_ on 20/09/2023 at 17:37

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - movilogo

A step in right direction IMHO

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Falkirk Bairn

A sensible step IMHO - EVs are very expensive and the infrastructure - charging points, the National Grid, even the supply to your street is not necessarily up to handling even 1 EV in the driveway of every 2nd / 3rd house in the street.

EU is looking at 2035

However the choice of Petrol & Diesel cars is narrowing already.

Fords alone - Fiesta gone, Focus next.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Adampr

I think it's a bit of shame. Partly because of the environmental impact, but mostly because it demonstrates that, when faced with a challenge, we give up.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

I think it's a bit of shame. Partly because of the environmental impact, but mostly because it demonstrates that, when faced with a challenge, we give up.

Check.

Upside, from a personal perspective, is net less than zero, since I wouldnt want a new IC car anyway, even if I could afford one, since as far as I can tell they are un-maintainable profoundly irritating disposable junk.

I get enough of that jive from my iPhone

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - De Sisti

I wouldnt want a new IC car anyway, even if I could afford one, since as far as I can tell they are un-maintainable profoundly irritating disposable junk.

I get enough of that jive from my iPhone

I'm sure some of the petrolheads on this forum would disagree.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

I wouldnt want a new IC car anyway, even if I could afford one, since as far as I can tell they are un-maintainable profoundly irritating disposable junk.

I get enough of that jive from my iPhone

I'm sure some of the petrolheads on this forum would disagree.

I daresay,, but that wouldn't alter the sad facts.

I doubt I qualify as a petrolhead. but here's one who seems to agree, though he goes on a bit

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOVnHhDldJM

Theres a shorter one explaining his reasons for giving up on new tech cars a couple of decades ago, featuring a requirement to replace all 8 coils for a single coil failure, but I couldnt find it

Individually coded parts preventing (or complicating) the use of recycled items? That just a mythic conspiracy theory?

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

Popped up again. I find Youtube pretty random and not very searchable, at least from linux

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANxhQ4wUiMQ

Goes on a bit, but takes as his lesson a cracked tail light bringing down an F150 CANBUS and bricking the truck, with a 6K US repair bill.

His vision of an army of old school mechanics retro-engineering America back on the road by simply replacing stupidly complex systems with the robustly simple might be a bit optimistic.

Certainly it would be completely completely illegal in Taiwan, and probably in The Yook and Yurrap, but we dont have guns like Americans do.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

I wouldnt want a new IC car anyway, even if I could afford one, since as far as I can tell they are un-maintainable profoundly irritating disposable junk.

I get enough of that jive from my iPhone

I'm sure some of the petrolheads on this forum would disagree.

I don't mean to imply that electric cars will necessarily NOT be un-maintainable profoundly irritating disposable junk.

They could and should be much better in this regard, but having got away with it with IC cars, manufacturers are likely to want to perpetuate the s***e status quo with electrics.

They wont have the fig leaf of avoiding pollution that is some of the reason/excuse for the fragile complexity of late IC cars, but the punters are so supine an excuse may be superfluous.

Tesla reported restrictive practices re maintenance and repair are an indication of how things will go if they continue to be allowed to get away with it.

Edited by edlithgow on 22/09/2023 at 03:31

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Engineer Andy

A step in right direction IMHO

Indeed, but just back to what it was prior to Boris brining teh date forward to 2030. This needs to go back to at least 2050, if not later. Similarly for all the net zero laws banning fossil fuelled heating boilers, etc.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
Given that manufacturers work on a six or seven life cycle for models, and they’re planning further ahead than that, I honestly don’t think it’ll make any difference. They’ve been planning for 2030 for a while and will have an EV lineup in the pipeline.
It would potentially give a bit of breathing space to the Japanese brands who are lagging behind.
Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt

It would potentially give a bit of breathing space to the Japanese brands who are lagging behind.

Maybe they are aiming at going a different direction, more R&D is being made in Hydrogen, so I wouldn`t be surprised to see it competing with All EVs. ie they may make a few EV models but concentrate on Hydrogen, just to tide them over.

the Japanese don`t seem overly keen on all electric cars. unlike Musk...

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Maxime.

Have you not noticed also the push back on net zero, not to make people suffer more costs of reaching net zero.

There is aGeneral Election in the next 12 months and some upcoming byelections shortly.

Populist policies again.

And will we suddenly see tax cuts soon?

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - artill

I see it as slightly good news. But the issue isnt just the 2030 ban, but also the average CO2 figures makers have to hit , and the target of EV sales, starting at 22% next year. Right now, even if i was in the market to buy a new car, i would struggle to find anything to buy, as the sort of cars i like, and have previously bought almost no longer exist.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

Have you not noticed also the push back on net zero, not to make people suffer more costs of reaching net zero.

There is aGeneral Election in the next 12 months and some upcoming byelections shortly.

Populist policies again.

And will we suddenly see tax cuts soon?

Statement from the PM

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1704219783950926268

AFAICT he is deploring issue dodging short termism, in advance of an issue dodging short termist policy shift announcement.

So thats all right, then

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Catfood

The Japanese aren't lagging behind.....and true they aren't keen on EV.

The Europeans(German) said Diesel is the future 30 years ago.....

The Japanese said Petrol-Hybrid is the future......

The German Diesel failed by VW's own goal and Japanese Hybrid won the game. They now need to change the rule to kick Japanese domination hence ICE/Hybrid Ban in the cities in Europe. A bit like the war VHS vs Beta Max.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf

It would potentially give a bit of breathing space to the Japanese brands who are lagging behind.

Maybe they are aiming at going a different direction, more R&D is being made in Hydrogen, so I wouldn`t be surprised to see it competing with All EVs. ie they may make a few EV models but concentrate on Hydrogen, just to tide them over.

the Japanese don`t seem overly keen on all electric cars. unlike Musk...

Toyota's solid state battery with 600 mile range due out 2027 might change things

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - barney100
Volvo’s all ev policy has been sabotaged by countries putting back the cut off for ice cars. Will they have to revert to some ice to keep sales going or will they sell enough evs?
Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - RT
Volvo’s all ev policy has been sabotaged by countries putting back the cut off for ice cars. Will they have to revert to some ice to keep sales going or will they sell enough evs?

It's only the UK which has changed a date - that just brings us into line with theEU.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - groaver

Nothing. They will remain expensive.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - movilogo

Besides cars, net zero policy has a massive impact on housing. Govt proposed that from 2028, any property with EPC rating of D or worse can't be let. Nearly 30% of UK housing stock can't achieve that rating. In some towns this means half of houses becoming un-rentable. The landlords would sell. Imagine what will be the impact of this.

The government can't and won't allow house prices to crash.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Terry W

At the moment slipping net zero targets is speculation - albeit possibly fuelled by early leaks to assess reaction before disclosing the actual policy.

The next election may be 15 months away. Net zero target is 2050, I suspect much of the policy will be influenced by electoral impacts. There is no need to change the policy now.

If the changes happen wholesale the political impact may be mixed - as many will be horrified by the failure to limit climate progress as are relieved that their comfortable existence can be maintained a little longer.

Changes to gas and cars impacts only new purchases. They do not immediately create cost of living pressures for all - s/h ICE cars will be ok for 10 years+. Existing central heating boilers may not need replacement for 20+ years.

Rental property is different - landlords may sell rather than upgrade their properties (if it is possible). The number of people needing somewhere to live will not change - rents may increase as properties available reduce, encouraging competition for property purchase.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Falkirk Bairn

10 miles west of Edinburgh there is a huge housebuilding programme - new motorway junction built on M9 last year to meet the huge increase in cars, no rail station although a line runs nearby but upgrade to line needed to access Edinburgh (£megabucks)

Jan 2024 the builders cannot install Gas Boilers in new builds in Scotland. Currently Jan 2025 in rUK.

The increase needed in electrical supply needed will be 2.5 x the available supply - this is not available and no date as to when the Grid will be upgraded.

Similar stories all over the country and connection times of generation sites with National Grid is measured in periods 3- 10+ years.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - JonestHon

Nothing. They will remain expensive.

Yes for now.

I can't see BEV's being different to any other appliance, economies of scale demands cost parity with previous tech before wide spread affordability.

Can you see a time where dwindling new ICE models are on parity with BEV or cheaper?

This may well be in the years 2030-2035.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
Statement from Ford -

‘Our business needs three things from the UK govt: ambition, commitment & consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.’
Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Adampr

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

We aren't increasing demand for electricity. It has been reducing for years.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

We aren't increasing demand for electricity. It has been reducing for years.

We are implementing measures to replace all cars with Battery EVs.

We are implementing measures to stop the use of gas as a heating system and replace it with heat pumps powered by electricity.Both measures significantly increase demand for electricity: by 50% BY 2035

"To meet the UK’s projected 50% increase in electricity demand by 2035, the targets for low-carbon power generation have been increased in the Energy Security Strategy paper, compared to previous targets in the Energy White Paper. The table below includes both targets, alongside the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended capacity targets and current operational capacity for each energy type."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/where-will-britains-f...K's%20projected,in%20the%20Energy%20White%20Paper.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Adampr

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

We aren't increasing demand for electricity. It has been reducing for years.

We are implementing measures to replace all cars with Battery EVs.

We are implementing measures to stop the use of gas as a heating system and replace it with heat pumps powered by electricity.Both measures significantly increase demand for electricity: by 50% BY 2035

"To meet the UK’s projected 50% increase in electricity demand by 2035, the targets for low-carbon power generation have been increased in the Energy Security Strategy paper, compared to previous targets in the Energy White Paper. The table below includes both targets, alongside the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended capacity targets and current operational capacity for each energy type."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/where-will-britains-f...K's%20projected,in%20the%20Energy%20White%20Paper.

Got it. I thought you were talking about what is happening, rather than hats supposed to be happening by 2050.

Well, the good news is that some of that capacity already exists. Reading the 'energy budget' you linked to, it doesn't seem to suggest that all the future growth has to come from wind.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

We aren't increasing demand for electricity. It has been reducing for years.

We are implementing measures to replace all cars with Battery EVs.

We are implementing measures to stop the use of gas as a heating system and replace it with heat pumps powered by electricity.Both measures significantly increase demand for electricity: by 50% BY 2035

"To meet the UK’s projected 50% increase in electricity demand by 2035, the targets for low-carbon power generation have been increased in the Energy Security Strategy paper, compared to previous targets in the Energy White Paper. The table below includes both targets, alongside the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended capacity targets and current operational capacity for each energy type."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/where-will-britains-f...K's%20projected,in%20the%20Energy%20White%20Paper.

Got it. I thought you were talking about what is happening, rather than hats supposed to be happening by 2050.

Well, the good news is that some of that capacity already exists. Reading the 'energy budget' you linked to, it doesn't seem to suggest that all the future growth has to come from wind.

Trouble is : the current backup for wind - when it does not blow- is being closed down bit by bit..And you can forget any new nukes being operational before 2050: a ten year leadtime to get work started due to Planning.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt

We are increasing demand for electricity and relying on windpower to make up the increase.

Utter madness. For reasons anyone who knows the UK weather can tell - that excludes politicians

We aren't increasing demand for electricity. It has been reducing for years.

We are implementing measures to replace all cars with Battery EVs.

We are implementing measures to stop the use of gas as a heating system and replace it with heat pumps powered by electricity.Both measures significantly increase demand for electricity: by 50% BY 2035

"To meet the UK’s projected 50% increase in electricity demand by 2035, the targets for low-carbon power generation have been increased in the Energy Security Strategy paper, compared to previous targets in the Energy White Paper. The table below includes both targets, alongside the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommended capacity targets and current operational capacity for each energy type."

commonslibrary.parliament.uk/where-will-britains-f...K's%20projected,in%20the%20Energy%20White%20Paper.

Got it. I thought you were talking about what is happening, rather than hats supposed to be happening by 2050.

Well, the good news is that some of that capacity already exists. Reading the 'energy budget' you linked to, it doesn't seem to suggest that all the future growth has to come from wind.

Trouble is : the current backup for wind - when it does not blow- is being closed down bit by bit..And you can forget any new nukes being operational before 2050: a ten year leadtime to get work started due to Planning.

I gather these wind turbines are costing a fortune to keep running as the weather destroys the blades over time, it has been mentioned thier costing as much for the upkeep as they cost new....?

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - davecooper

It's only a five year stay of execution which is nothing in the overall scheme of things. Manufacturers are already gearing up for 2030.

Push back (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - FoxyJukebox
This sounds like a subtle request for Government support.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Metropolis.
This is going to get him a huge number of votes! Fantastic news for petrol heads everywhere.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Adampr
This is going to get him a huge number of votes! Fantastic news for petrol heads everywhere.

But all it does is delay the pain. Nothing changes.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf
This is going to get him a huge number of votes! Fantastic news for petrol heads everywhere.

The car companies are unlikely to change plans.

After all, a Labour Government - if we have one - will reverse everything next year.

So change nothing will be the industry reply.

Except "don't invest in the UK,you cannot trust them" is the lesson here.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - pd
This is going to get him a huge number of votes! Fantastic news for petrol heads everywhere.

The car companies are unlikely to change plans.

After all, a Labour Government - if we have one - will reverse everything next year.

So change nothing will be the industry reply.

Except "don't invest in the UK,you cannot trust them" is the lesson here.

Car companies don't design model ranges around the piddling UK market. They look Europe and worldwide. It will make no difference to their plans at all, the only difference might be the model mix they happen to offer in the UK.

The vast majority of cars produced in the UK are also exported so it won't make a lot of difference to that either.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
As above - manufacturers are committed to 100% EV by 2030, they’re not going to change plans based on the dithering of a PM who’s chasing votes from the right wing he already occupies.
Incidentally, where was the Commons debate on this?
Yes, the legislation may be in place by then to allow ICE’s to be sold up to 2035 but there won’t be any to buy.
Except maybe for Toyota who’ll still be chasing hydrogen unicorns.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Falkirk Bairn

I was under the impression that the EU was allowing modified ICE engines / modified fuels to 2035 and possibly beyond.

Am I wrong ?

An SNP person said the ban on petrol & diesel would still be in place in Scotland after 2030.

Looks like buying an ICE car could involve catching a train/bus to Carlisle or Newcastle after 2030 to buy a new petrol/diesel set of wheels.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - RT
As above - manufacturers are committed to 100% EV by 2030, they’re not going to change plans based on the dithering of a PM who’s chasing votes from the right wing he already occupies. Incidentally, where was the Commons debate on this? Yes, the legislation may be in place by then to allow ICE’s to be sold up to 2035 but there won’t be any to buy. Except maybe for Toyota who’ll still be chasing hydrogen unicorns.

The change actually brings us into line with the EU's 2035 date so I doubt manufacturers were really committed to 2030 in the UK anyway - never mind you keep on making your political points!

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - pd

Frankly, if an EV isn't a compelling choice for the consumer by 2030 over an ICE car then the industry will have failed quite spectacularly.

Manufacturers like set rules over wide areas so having one market across Europe would seem to be to their benefit. I don't see people calling for the UK to diverge on emissions (e.g. Euro 7) or type approval standards from the EU so why on something else?

As for Ford, they haven't made a car in the UK for decades and although they have invested in traction unit production they'll all go off to Europe to be put into cars built in countries with a 2035 ban......

I understand there will be a Commons vote btw.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Falkirk Bairn

"never mind you keep on making your political points!"

Sunak - government makes a decision to extend the ICE deadline to 2035

SNP administration says it will still ban petrol/diesel sales of new cars in 2030

Both the above are political statements

Sunak could lose power in 2024 and the new occupants of No 10 can decide to reverse that back to 2030 - politics.

The SNP makes a statement that they will hold on to 2030 ban on pure ICE cars etc which apparently is within their powers - HOWEVER I was pointing out the obvious flaw in the statement.

PS I bought a CRV Hybrid last month.

I am all for cleaning up the countryside, the rivers, improving air quality etc etc BUT it has to be practical, affordable and not crash our lives of many by making it impossible for companies / people of all ages to go about their business and live comfortably in their homes.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Engineer Andy

The problem as regards Sunak's statement to 'push back' the ban on new ICE sales by 5 years is that, in my view it has been made irrelevant by Transport Secretary (presumably authorised) Mark Harper's statement that all the legal requirements on car makers to sell X% EVs stepped up at various times has not changed one iota, nor has the £15k penalty per car for going over their quota.

This means they will be either passing on the full cost to customers of ICE cars, which will surely render many cars uneconomic (already going that way by over-legislating on extra safety and emissions regs that give little added benefit for the cost) to make and thus out of reach for those on medium and lower incomes.

This is evidenced by many popular small and mdeium sized models being ditched or going hybrid/EV-only, and with vastly inflated prices compared to about 5 years ago, even accounting for the pandemic and Ukraine war inflationary pressures.

EV prices are dopping, but only if you compare like with like, mostly at the top end and of early icnomers (e.g. Teslas) and where the overwhelming majority are already large and/or, very expensive cars that the average punter wouldn't be able to afford new or likely until it gets to approaching 5 years old at least.

The European, US, Japanese and Korean manufacturers will also be force to either pay these fines to governments or to Chinese producers who will be flooding the market, which will only help them take market share and further reduce the industry in the 'West' at a time when we should be taking manufacturing jobs / business back from China.

That many of the 'sources' of power to power EVs are also mainly produced in China, where they are building new coal fired power stations at such a rate where it said to cancel out the UK's entire CO2 contribution over a year.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘never mind you keep on making your political points!’

It’s a political decision, so I’d have thought it acceptable to comment on it.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - SLO76
It’s a wise move, the infrastructure isn’t right yet and EV’s still aren’t viable for many people due to their lack of range and high costs. The question mark remains regarding longterm durability of the battery packs also.

I personally don’t agree with a ban. Stepped increased taxation on vehicles emitting more than 99g/km would’ve been a fairer and more gradual way to push EV adoption, but in my opinion small petrol engined cars such as the Toyota Aygo etc are less damaging for the environment overall for lower mileage users and banning them has effectively doubled the cost of buying a car for many people, particularly the elderly.

Until someone introduces battery tech which is much cheaper to manufacture we shouldn’t ban small low emission petrol vehicles. These are decisions being made by people with little understanding of the economics of being an ordinary working person and in their daily transport needs. They’ve abundant money and expenses accounts funded by us, the poor mugs who are going to be priced off the roads.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - davecooper

It's not a ban on all new ICE cars, hybrids will still be allowed until 2035. You will still be able to buy a used petrol/diesel car after the deadline and run it as long as you can. Also, classic cars are not affected in any way. It is going to be very difficult to buy a non hybrid car by 2030 anyway.

I believe that the 2030 deadline for purely ICE cars is realistic but perhaps the hybrid deadline should have been the one that was extended to perhaps 2040.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf

The basic problem that Sunak faces is that Boris was recommended to set the current 2030 date as 2040. In a fit of political virility he decided on 2030 to see off the EU.

But no planning was apparently done on how to make it happen.

So EVs, HS2 and other things are a monument to political vanity.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
As exhaustive a list as I’ve seen of manufacturers electrified plans -

www.driving.co.uk/news/new-cars/current-upcoming-p.../
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
As far as we can see, the ZEV mandate remains intact in that in 2030 80% of cars and 70% of vans must be EV.
The five year period from 2030-35, previously the grace period for (plug-in?) hybrids has now been opened up to ICE. Everything must still be EV by 2035.
So, despite the headlines, and given that manufacturers are aiming to electrify their ranges anyway, not that much has changed.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Terry W

Change to 2035 is unlikely to make much difference to already existing manufacturer plans.

Although ICE will now be on sale until 2035, little development or investment will go into them - manufacturers will be focussing on impending (albeit delayed) EV mandate.

By 2031 the choice for new car buyers will be:

  • an increasingly obsolete ICE last updated at least 10 years earlier, or
  • an EV which will have benefitted from a further 8 years production, technology and cost saving improvements

The delay reduces risks associated with infrastructure improvements (currently lagging and not joined up) and the transition to EV if expected technology and cost improvements do not emerge.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - movilogo

From Telegraph

The mandate will require 22% of cars sold by manufacturers to be electric from next year. By 2030, the quota will gradually rise to 80%.

Carmakers that cannot hit the annual targets must either sell more electric vehicles in future years, purchase credits from rivals, or pay a fine of £15,000 per car.

So this will force car makers not to offer non EV cars for sale. The buyers don't want EVs they will have to buy used cars.

The problem is that if EVs were that good, people would have bought them without being coerced.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘ The problem is that if EVs were that good, people would have bought them without being coerced.’

I’m biased, but I’ll say they are that good.

Unfortunately, there’s a huge amount of fear, uncertainty and doubt regularly propagated by outlets like the Telegraph that cause fear of the unknown.

Multiple surveys are showing that over 90% of EV drivers won’t go back to petrol or diesel.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - movilogo

Time is money. Cost of running EV ignores charging time, which is several times compared to refilling an ICE car.

Of course time is subjective and some people may value time more than others. But still the time you spend charging EV (when not at home) could be used to do something else (i.e. arriving at destination sooner etc.) which you give up while charging.

EVs are still very expensive compared to equivalent ICE or even hybrids.

Range is not a problem - it is the charging time that matters.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
I’ve left base this morning with 100% charge (it did it whilst I was asleep, at no cost to my time).
It’s a dashboard range of 330 miles. Despite driving pretty much all day, I’m not going to do that so I’ll just plug in again when I get back.
If I do exceed that, a 25 minute charge on a rapid charger will give me the ability to do 580 miles. Even in a mythical perpetual motion machine I’d be stopping for longer than that over that distance.

And in that 580 miles I’ve emitted nothing from a non-existent exhaust.

And that initial 330 miles I’ll have done for under £6.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - gordonbennet
. And that initial 330 miles I’ll have done for under £6.

So far.

Don't blame anyone taking advantage of honeymoon periods or tax breaks designed to 'encourage' behaviours required by this weeks politicians, good luck to you enjoy it while you can, i'm not a hypocrit i enjoyed the fuel tax breaks that LPG afforded me for long enough, especially the dual fuel VED bonus, £10 :-)

People should remember that a free lunch doesn't exist and not everyone can take advantage of trial period giveaways, many simply don't have the funds to or wish to rent/lease or have an expensive car on the drip.

Edited by gordonbennet on 22/09/2023 at 11:03

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘ Don't blame anyone taking advantage of honeymoon periods or tax breaks designed to 'encourage' behaviours required by this weeks politicians, good luck to you enjoy it while you can, i'm not a hypocrit i enjoyed the fuel tax breaks that LPG afforded me for long enough, especially the dual fuel VED bonus, £10 :-)’

It’s not a tax break, it’s an energy company tariff offering cheap rates overnight when there’s surplus capacity in the grid.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - gordonbennet
It’s not a tax break, it’s an energy company tariff offering cheap rates overnight when there’s surplus capacity in the grid.

OK, thats fine, hope there won't be some tax applied in the future, that and the lack of VED so far is what i meant by tax breaks.... i'll not bother again.:-)

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - madf
It’s not a tax break, it’s an energy company tariff offering cheap rates overnight when there’s surplus capacity in the grid.

OK, thats fine, hope there won't be some tax applied in the future, that and the lack of VED so far is what i meant by tax breaks.... i'll not bother again.:-)

New VED rates from 2025 for all cars registered post 30/4/2017 - much higher,,

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - SLO76
My wife has a Nissan Leaf and has said she’ll never go back to petrol. The range (140/150 miles) is plenty enough to do two days on her usual commute plus a bit of general running about and the car is simply charged at home on off-peak low rate electricity for about £3 every two days. No need to visit petrol stations and the general running costs are much lower with minimal fuel cost and minimal servicing required.

Longer journeys require a visit to a fast charger, a toilet break and a quick lunch then back on the road after 40 mins. It only becomes an issue when you step beyond 250 miles or so as the Leaf doesn’t like repeated fast charging thanks to its lack of active battery cooling.

The problem with new EV’s however is cost, they’re far too costly and any fuel savings are more than wiped out by the higher depreciation most of them suffer from. Used however, they can make a great deal of sense. The list price of her Leaf is around £28k but she paid £13,500 for it at 3yrs old and 31,000 miles up. It was no dearer than an equivalent petrol or diesel car but costs are so much lower.

But as I say the economics simply don’t stack up when new. A small city car like the VW UP!, Fiat 500 or Toyota Aygo in petrol form were around £10-£15k less than equivalent electric models and there’s no way a low mileage user will see any savings never mind the additional depreciation. They’re all too expensive new and only make sense with huge tax payer subsidy or once the used motor trade have hammered reality into their values.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - JonestHon

Yes, you did not emit anything, it's the electricity maker who did. Swings and roundabouts.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘ That many of the 'sources' of power to power EVs are also mainly produced in China, where they are building new coal fired power stations at such a rate where it said to cancel out the UK's entire CO2 contribution over a year.’

Not quite that straightforward in that China are also the world’s largest producers of energy from wind and solar, and the coal fired generation is seen as surplus and as a back up. They’re expected, as a nation, to hit ‘peak carbon’ within the next few years then to start reducing their carbon emissions.
Any western companies using companies Chinese production facilities, ie Volvo, have the same pressures to head towards net zero and so will have service level agreements in place to ensure that x percentage of energy used for their production will have to come from renewables.
It’s only a guess, but I’d be amazed if BYD or Great Wall or Geely are building cars in plants powered by coal produced electricity.

www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-new-coal-pl.../

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Engineer Andy

Problem is that as yet, other than nuclear power, which even in China takes many years to design and build plants (rather than decades here, with our planning rules), and thus a fossil fuel backup always has to be in place when the wind doesn't blow and nighttime, which is still a considerable amount of time over the course of a year.

No energy storage is on the horizon that could do the job at the scale needed to replace them yet, which is why I believe the net zero legal targets are just ridiculous, epsecially as they were only chosen because the dates seemed 'good' rather than how they are 'sold' to the public as X years to save the planet.

They're all arbitrary, no proper science involved whatsover in how they were decided upon.

The difference with teh CHinese (made) car manufacturers is that presumably they can sell as many ICE cars as they want at home and for far longer than in major Western nations like ours, which means they could easily reach their quota, and, like Tesla did, make huge profits on 'trading' quotas rather than on their EV sales, flooding the market with subsidised vehicles that takes sales away from the established firms like the Japanese did in the 1970s.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
China has a mandate of 40% of all car sales to be EV by 2030.
Year to date 2023 they are at 24%, so it’s looking like they’re running ahead of schedule.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

No energy storage is on the horizon that could do the job at the scale needed to replace them yet,...

Theres a proposal to convert a lot of Norways HEP reservoirs to pump storage, and, in combo with big new undersea cables, use it as "Europes Big Battery". These are existing reservoirs so this can be done relatively quickly.

I havn't personally done the sums, but they are supposed to add up.

I used it as a class example when I was running a Sustainable Development course, featuring "spot your very own proto professor" among the school kids at the Queens opening of the original wee Ben Cruachan pumped storage scheme, which had more modest short term load smoothing objectives.

IIRC short term load fluctuations used to be largely driven by TV scheduling and the consequent synchronisation of tea breaks, so they have probably been significantly smoothed by media streaming.

Ben Cruachan seems to work. The underground generating hall is worth a visit. Very Dr Evil.

I understand there are a few new larger scale schemes proposed for Scotland too.

Edited by edlithgow on 23/09/2023 at 00:09

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - PatrickVaughan

Expanding Norway's HEP reservoirs for pump storage and creating Europe's Big Battery with undersea cables is a promising proposal for sustainable energy. Ben Cruachan's success and potential larger-scale schemes in Scotland are encouraging developments in this direction.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - movilogo

Wonder why manufactures (other than Toyota) are reluctant make to hydrogen cars.

It is the most abundant element in universe and refill takes less time than filling up with petrol.

There are barriers to break, but with enough R&D these are achievable.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt

Wonder why manufactures (other than Toyota) are reluctant make to hydrogen cars.

It is the most abundant element in universe and refill takes less time than filling up with petrol.

There are barriers to break, but with enough R&D these are achievable.

It is being worked on.....

Nine hydrogen valleys projects to be funded by the Clean Hydrogen Partnership - H2 News (hydrogenfuelnews.com)

could do with some here.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Engineer Andy

Wonder why manufactures (other than Toyota) are reluctant make to hydrogen cars.

It is the most abundant element in universe and refill takes less time than filling up with petrol.

There are barriers to break, but with enough R&D these are achievable.

Hydrogen may be the most abundent element in the universe, but there's little of it on Earth. Not so bad if you can easily make it to Jupiter.

Yes, you can 'crack' it from natural gas, but that is hardly 'green', natural gas should really only be used for heating buildings and cooking (particularly domestic homes) and not be 'wasted' on energy generation and 'transmission',

Cracking is also energy intensive, but currently the only other source (from gas is the main source, especially for industry), electrolysis from water, is still incredibly energy-intensive and not widesly used yet compared to cracking gas.

For the latter, new tech to reduce the energy usage to split it off from water is being developed, but its still in the very early stages and likely 10 years or more from being rolled out at all, assuming it gets that far.

As I've stated in other threads, the problem is that the powers-that-be want to roll out hydrogen for other things (replacement for natural gas in home boilers) way before all the tech and infrastructure is anywhere near able to support it. Sadly untypical of the era we're in.

In addition, storing hydrogen is also very energy-intensive because it has to be either stored at very low temperatures (as a liquid) or under significant pressure (as a gas), given its very low density at ambient temperatures. That's why petrol and diesel are so much better when used at ambient temperatures - you get so much more 'bang' for every litre of fuel.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

Expanding Norway's HEP reservoirs for pump storage and creating Europe's Big Battery with undersea cables is a promising proposal for sustainable energy. Ben Cruachan's success and potential larger-scale schemes in Scotland are encouraging developments in this direction.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCAQ80k8ePk

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘ Wonder why manufactures (other than Toyota) are reluctant make to hydrogen cars.

It is the most abundant element in universe and refill takes less time than filling up with petrol.’

Because it’s not found on Earth as an element. It’s so light it’d just float off into space.
Instead, lots of energy has to be used to split it from whatever it’s been attached to - energy that’s much more efficiently used put straight into a battery.
Transporting it is a nightmare (-253C) as the molecule size is so tiny it escapes very easily. There is an option to ship it as ammonia, but again you’ve got to use energy to split it back down again to hydrogen.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt
‘ Wonder why manufactures (other than Toyota) are reluctant make to hydrogen cars. It is the most abundant element in universe and refill takes less time than filling up with petrol.’ Because it’s not found on Earth as an element. It’s so light it’d just float off into space. Instead, lots of energy has to be used to split it from whatever it’s been attached to - energy that’s much more efficiently used put straight into a battery. Transporting it is a nightmare (-253C) as the molecule size is so tiny it escapes very easily. There is an option to ship it as ammonia, but again you’ve got to use energy to split it back down again to hydrogen.

Probably why there is research and development going into it, someone I know who's come back from China said a lot of buses run on hydrogen using a converted ice, some are fuel cell but not all....

and apparently charge the tank/s in approx. 8 minutes.... not having gone there myself I don`t know- but have heard they are even using HGVs with Hydrogen now as battery weight would be too much, but I think it will become more available as time goes on

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Terry W

Very high stakes attached to next generation transport technologies means hydrogen as an option is understandably the subject of significant research and development.

However the laws of physics prevail. Currently for each KW of electricity generated (from any source) battery technology delivers 80-90% at the wheels, hydrogen delivers 30-35%.

Hydrogen simply cannot compete unless (a) speed of refuelling is the dominant concern, or (b) battery recharging is unavailable, or (c) some very specific applications where energy density is critical (possibly construction).

I would estimate the probability of hydrogen becoming the preferred fuel for private transport at about 10%. R&D may be justified is for no other reason than fear of missing out and specialist applications.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow
or (c) some very specific applications where energy density is critical (possibly construction).

Aircraft

Skunk works did a design and engine testing study for a U2 replacement which looked very like the Blackhawk, but concluded that the advantages didn't justify the hassle of the USAF setting up a global hydrogen refuelling system.

The Sovs flew an experimental hydrogen fueled Tu155 airliner in 1988

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-155

Or with film, and bad English

blog.privatejetfinder.com/tu-155-hydrogen/

Edited by edlithgow on 23/09/2023 at 15:43

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

Vietnam used to have buses running on wood. Burned in restricted air you get H and CO, both of which can be used in an IC engine.

Tars and ash need to be filrered out though, which is a maintenance headache.it. I doubt they are still doing it

Would that'd be ULEZ and Euro 6 compliant? Ought to be zero C

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘and apparently charge the tank/s in approx. 8 minutes.... not having gone there myself I don`t know- but have heard they are even using HGVs with Hydrogen now as battery weight would be too much, but I think it will become more available as time goes on’

For a truck or bus that returns to a depot every night, where there could be hydrogen production/storage facilities, then I’ll go with it as a possibility.

Cars? Never in a month of Sundays. That ship has long sailed.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt

Cars? Never in a month of Sundays. That ship has long sailed.

I know the one carrying evs nearly sunk and was still burning weeks later, and if you see the video of a Merc still burning away after being dipped in a skip full of water, not the sort of motor I would want, but whatever, most everyone appears to want one and they are welcome

and I like evs, some really good looking evs out there, only a pity we can`t sort the batteries out, thats why I prefer Hydrogen and expect in years to come sales and filling stations to become the norm. far too much involved with battery tech and too heavy

but at least the Hydrogen tech is being used and can only improve imo....

Looking forward to the future, its going to be extremely interesting!

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
To address the fire issue, studies by the NTSB in the US, and the equivalent in Sweden, show that for every 100 ICE fires, there are 5 EV fires. So one in twenty.

If you’re looking at the recent ship fire off Holland, once it was boarded all the EV’s were undamaged on a lower deck. The challenge was getting them out because the inferno of burning ICE’s up above had mangled the decks.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘ Looking forward to the future, it’s going to be extremely interesting!’

And agreed, fascinating - and potentially contentious - times ahead.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt
To address the fire issue, studies by the NTSB in the US, and the equivalent in Sweden, show that for every 100 ICE fires, there are 5 EV fires. So one in twenty. If you’re looking at the recent ship fire off Holland, once it was boarded all the EV’s were undamaged on a lower deck. The challenge was getting them out because the inferno of burning ICE’s up above had mangled the decks.

I heard different, the EVs that didn`t burn were shown as Porsche`s/Mercedes and others that suffered thermal runaway, and burnt to a cinder and welded themselves to the deck, one Merc I watched being shifted was electric and had to be forklifted into a container full of water as it was still burning, yet so far all EV owners said they did not believe an EV could be that bad

But yes they can, so can electric bikes and E scooters and they are smaller, so you can believe the stats if you like, doesn`t mean they are true

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow
To address the fire issue, studies by the NTSB in the US, and the equivalent in Sweden, show that for every 100 ICE fires, there are 5 EV fires. So one in twenty.

At the risk of being bleedin obvious, IF that figure is as-stated (though I would doubt that these organisations would make such an unqualified statement) then it suggests EV's are probably more inflammable than your standard issue napalm-fuelled vehicle, since there are probably more than 20X the number of napalm carriers, and an even higher proportion of napalm fuelled miles.

There were over a 100X more (0.7 percent electric) napalm (and diesel) powered light vehicles in 2020.

electrek.co/2021/10/26/electric-vehicles-projected.../

From a quick look, couldn't find proportion of mileage, but it'll likely be smaller.

IF those studies in fact expressed the comparison on a meaningful basis, as one would hope, it doesn't address the differential in consequences, Electric vehicle fires do seem to be more troublesome, though admittedly being used to napalm is probably a factor.

Edited by edlithgow on 23/09/2023 at 23:45

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

Quickie PPT on electric vehicle fires. Looks like a rather early case-based study

wiki.unece.org/download/attachments/60358932/EVS16...2

No statistics addressing the above Sparky/Napalm comparison, but some interesting speculative comments on apparent comparative safety between electrics.

Seems Leaf good, Tesla bad

They dont seem to like that there isn't a standardised circuit breaking handle, (probably with a cool red ejector seat stylee warning triangle around it) so perhaps that'll be a future feature, at least until the street urchins figure out how to trigger it.

They dont specifically say so, but it seems some kind of skooshing chute to help them get water on /in the battery would be useful, as is done for large marine battery banks

Edited by edlithgow on 24/09/2023 at 00:32

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - Bolt

but it seems some kind of skooshing chute to help them get water on /in the battery would be useful, as is done for large marine battery banks

It seems once the EV battery goes into thermal runaway, water, no matter the volume will put one out, in most cases of EV fires that do are left to burn out, though they take everything that is around them with them (reason why they use containers full of water to cool/slow the fire down)

main battery cut off switch iirc on a tesla is an explosive on the battery terminals, when a serious problem registers on the computers, the explosive breaks the circuit which has to be replaced if and when it happens, this has been shown and tried on YT

seeing comments around the net it seems EV fires are increasing even though the safety is meant to be increased, though I think thermal runaway is the most deadly without the smoke that occurs when they do burn.

personally I like the look of the Ioniq 5 but with the risk of batteries I wont be getting one, unless they make a Hydrogen one which is possible as they are doing research into them

Edited by Bolt on 24/09/2023 at 10:27

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - mcb100
‘seeing comments around the net it seems EV fires are increasing even though the safety is meant to be increased, ’

Apart from seeing comments from the net, is there any reputable data to back up the statement?

The International Union of Marine Insurance are stating that EV fires are no frequent than ICE vehicles.
www.motorship.com/regulation/marine-insurers-issue...e

Yes, they’re more difficult to fight if they do go up, but statistically much less likely to.
But there are mitigations in place - Renault Megane E-Tech, for example, has a flood port on top of the battery through which extinguishant can be pumped. Renault are stating a battery fire knocked down in five minutes as opposed to two to three hours.
Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - alan1302

seeing comments around the net it seems EV fires are increasing even though the safety is meant to be increased, though I think thermal runaway is the most deadly without the smoke that occurs when they do burn.

If there are more about there will be more fires. You want to know if it's increasing say per 1,000 vehicle or not.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - PatrickVaughan

EV fire incidents seem to be increasing, but to determine the rate per 1,000 vehicles, specific data analysis is needed.

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow

EV fire incidents seem to be increasing, but to determine the rate per 1,000 vehicles, specific data analysis is needed.

I dunno what the point of this these posts are. but they react oddly with the site quoting function.

Takes a robot to know one, perhaps

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - _
EV fire incidents seem to be increasing, but to determine the rate per 1,000 vehicles, specific data analysis is needI dunno what the point of this these posts are. but they react oddly with the site quoting function.

Takes a robot to know one, perhaps

We are currently deluged/submerged by robot registrations for the forum. There are too many for us to cope with anymore It is overwhelming.

As fast as we disable accounts more appear.

Expect a DNA attack soon?

ORB as a poster and ORB as a MOD>

Push back 2035 (end of sales of new diesel and petrol vehicles) - edlithgow
EV fire incidents seem to be increasing, but to determine the rate per 1,000 vehicles, specific data analysis is needI dunno what the point of this these posts are. but they react oddly with the site quoting function.

Takes a robot to know one, perhaps

We are currently deluged/submerged by robot registrations for the forum. There are too many for us to cope with anymore It is overwhelming.

As fast as we disable accounts more appear.

Expect a DNA attack soon?

ORB as a poster and ORB as a MOD>

Just one facet of those "interesting times" people enthuse about above.

I suppose not quite as "interesting" as the stuff my parents generation grew up with, (getting strafed in the back garden and such,) but still pretty bad, likely to get very much worse, and considerably less inspiring,

I dont get the motivation for this particular facet though. Surely not just a tech demo? What do they gain?

Edited by edlithgow on 26/09/2023 at 01:33