The used car market needs new car sales. The pandemic seriously limited new car sales due to logistics issues, economic concerns, manufacturing shut downs etc.

Inevitably there are far fewer than normal s/h available now. The relative shortage should resolve over the next 1-2 years as post pandemic production and sales increases.

The market will do what markets do - increased availability of new cars will drive prices down - already evident to some extent with discounts and deals becoming more common.

Supply of s/h cars (2-4 years old) will increase, reducing prices.

There will be a ripple effect on cars of all ages over the next few years - although it may be difficult to separate the impact of increased new supply from the transition to EV.

The big losers may be leasing companies who may have set prices based high purchase prices and high resale value. The fall in s/h values could push them into a loss.

The big leasing companies have a lot of expertise in predicting market trends so don't expect them to lose any sleep if market values drop.

I might be wrong but I think the 2nd hand car market for electric cars is going to nose dive because the main reason for selling them will be the batteries are naff, and as such no longer fit for purpose,

I saw an article about a person who got quoted 11k when he had to replace the batteries in his ford focus, after only 60'000 miles. Yes parts of normal car have to be replaced as well but not at that cost.

Compare this to the life expectancy of a petrol engine is 3 million Kilometres, 5 million for a diesel engine, and that is when it only BEGINS to wear down. ( according to motorverso.com)

It is worth noting for those who mistakenly believe the eletric is greener that a lot of the parts in an electric car will have been discarded in that time, and NOT re used.

It's meaning cars that are, in age/mileage etc terms, mid lower end of market going for silly sums. When, as older cars, with a potentially spotty service history do, they fail badly people are really seriously out of pocket.

One on mumsnet now paid £6.5k for an 08 Touran with 55k miles 10 months ago. Now off road with what sounds like it might be piston/valve interaction and turbo failure.

Question asked is about Small Claims action against dealer.

I don't put the probability of a win anywhere near 50%....

Ford is discontinuing the Fiesta, Ecosport, and Focus. That will leave the Puma, Kuga and Mustang! Mondeo has gone already.

You can also add in an increasingly aggressive taxation regime on manufacturers if fleet average exceeds 95g CO2 per km and tax on overproduction of ICE cars as a % of car output. These potentially add £k’s to new car prices. The press seems to have gone quiet on both these of late but I assume they are still in train.

Meanwhile where new cars are available there are a few offers creeping in. One example is various dealers with new Suzuki Vitaras Go Edition for £20k compared to £15-£16k for a three to four year old approved one. I haven’t enquired but these appear to be in stock. Perhaps an isolated example or maybe an early sign of wider price easing despite the headwinds.

I am hanging on until prices become sensible unless I have no choice. I am suspicious of of EVs and really the only plan I have is the aforementioned.

Been working out what we should do too, not paying silly prices for used cars, if we do decide to buy new it would almost certainly be a Dacia Jogger, waiting to see how reliable the hybrid proves, no interest whatsoever in a battery car.

In reality we'll more than likely run the now 18 year old Landcruiser for another decade or so, yes its heavy on fuel yes its fairly expensive to tax yes it will no doubt be banned from every city in the country on penalty ofa 'climate saving tax' contribution, though the latter point is actually in its favour as i'd rather stick pins in my eyes than visit any city...but it just carries on doing what it does year in year out.

I was thinking second hand values will decrease as we approach 2030.

I usually replace my car every four years and I have already passed that with my current car. The car has good depreciation at the moment but if I change it now, it will be due for a change in 2007. who will give good money for a car that will be obsolete in three years?

The demand will come from people who don't want EV cars..and want cheap runarounds.

Eg Honda Jazz 2002- 8 are great runabouts - if not too rusty- engines very reliable, and easy to work on. Ideal as first cars.. £500 to £1500 money

Edited by madf on 29/07/2023 at 16:00

Perhaps go for hybrid next as the ban is not until for 2035 for them if you are concerned.

I predict the ICE ban of 2030 will slip after the next election.

My parents bought a Vauxhall in 1938 and didn’t exchange it till 1958.

My Dad bought an F type Vauxhall (late 50's?) estate around 1963 - it had more or less rusted away by 1970. It was replaced in 1970 by a 1967 Ford Cortina that had rusted badly by 1980.

Fortunately rust proofing has improved and we've owned two cars in the family for over 19 years. Even on my high mileage commute for many decades I bought near new (or even new if a bargain) and ran for 10 years then effectively threw away simply ignoring depreciation.

The car market is bonkers at the moment but fortunately I'm wanting to get a few more years out of my current 2014 Superb especially as my annual mileage has dropped somewhat as I've now retired.

Edited by Big John on 23/10/2023 at 08:59

Today we took the uncles Celerio back to the dealer it was bought from. He has lost his license now (dementia) so no use for the car.

Registered December 2018 so almost 5 years old. Paid £6995 (including metallic for a pre-reg. Got £5100 cash, with no hidden deductions like WBAC.

That loss is small compared to what expected when buying was was an unpopular model that had been taken off sale after a short time.

Shows just what the market is like.

Car I have been watching on autotrader reduced a further £300, that’s a £1,100 reduction in 5 weeks.

I've seen similar reductions at my local dealers and even on Motorpoint, where some cars (that have taken far longer to sell than the historical norm there) will surely now not be profitable for them to sell, given how small their margins supposedly are.

Any diesel other than Euro 6 also appears to be hard to shift and dropping more than soley petrol-engined (especially) and hybrid cars. Presumably due to worries concerning the cost of driving into major cities which are instituting ULEZs.

I bet that dealers will be thinking of either dropping trade-on offers for EU5 (and earlier) diesels or even refusing them entirely, given they appear to be much harder to sell on, apart from in rural areas nowhere near the cities where value, reliability and practicality are more important.

Many second hand cars still flying off the forecourts - one that I keep an eye on as I pass back and forth to the supermarket had a previous gen SEAT Leon (not sure whether 1.4 or 1.8) TSI SC which was only there (I saw it being test driven) for about 3-4 days before being snapped up, as were some KIA Ceeds, a Picanto and either a Sportage or Hyundai Sanat Fe. Even a (Euro6 admitedly) diesel Jag XE was quickly snapped up.

Their stock of Jeeps, Euro5 (and older) diesels and seemingly dual clutch gearbox cars don't appear to be selling very quickly, as was an 'old' Mazda3 gen1 MPS (heavy on the fuel) which finally 'went' after 2-3 months (maybe more), and I wouldn't be suprised if it was passed on or auctioned off.

I think punters are realising not to go for something that could land them a big bill / usage costs given how much more they are having to shell out for the car itself at the moment, even if prices are on the turn downwards. Not really a surprise, given how much people's purchasing power has been hit over the last 2 years or so.

My local Arthur Daley type told me that they're shifting all sorts of diesels very easily as a lot of people want cheap economical cars and are more interested in that than LEZ etc.

That's probably geographic and demographic phenomenon as we're on the M5, between Bristol and Hinckley C, and the motorway is full of people in high vis and hoodies heading off to work (many miles from a train line)

The more rural an area, the more likely diesels (especially EU5 and below) will sell well if they are not overly complex or upper spec cars and in decent condition and the punters aren't likely to be affected any time soon by a ULEZ.

Whilst my area can look rural to the casual visitor, it is near enough to a city (Cambridge) that is likely to implement a ULEZ (give who's in charge most of the time).

Normality may be returning for some parts of the chain. We got £2k last month as trade in for our 89k Mazda 3. Good history including a service and MoT the week before trade in. WBAC (unexamined) offer had been £2k. So trade in was the best no hassle option as WBAC would have come down. I wouldn’t sell a car privately these days but AT suggested a selling price of £3800.

It’s just popped up on AT at £4599 at a small dealer in Hampshire. So there’s a margin for each of the dealer we traded in at, any auction house and the small dealer. Although it may have gone straight from dealer to dealer without auction as it’s stayed local. From the pictures they may have tarted up the very scruffy alloys but other than that it looks as if they’ve just given it a wash.

To me the margins and prices at each stage seem reasonable. People have to make a living.

It’s hard to second guess the figures when you do a deal but I wonder if they paid you at the top of the market only to get their fingers burned when it stuck in the chain and the market eased a bit. I seem to recall you got a good deal on your new car so it wasn’t as if they inflated the trade-in to get you to overpay on the new one.

I am always intrigued as to how the trade balance % against absolute margin. After all a 10% profit on a £2k car is pointless given the trader exposure to consumer rights and the cost of dealing. Whereas a 10% profit on a £10k car is more attractive.

Maybe SLO will come in and comment.

Motorway said our 11 year old Honda Jazz was worth £5,500 in summer . Now £4,150

Edited by madf on 07/11/2023 at 16:40

<< There are seven of them (4 doors), of that age, currently on Autotrader. Cheapest is £10995, dearest is £13495. So £8.4k seems pretty reasonable? >>

Normally one might wonder what may be wrong with it ?

I must admit davey that I've been really tempted to buy a replacement for my ageing (nearly 18yo) Mazda3, and there's a 2017 (facelift) 2L SE-L Nav 4dr going for £8.4k with only 45k on the lock, 1 owner and FSH at my local Ford dealer.

There are seven of them (4 doors), of that age, currently on Autotrader. Cheapest is £10995, dearest is £13495.

So £8.4k seems pretty reasonable?

Sold today (not to me!). Been there about a week or two at best.