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EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

'Charging anxiety' dents demand for electric cars (msn.com)

With a busy weekend at Easter should be interesting if the queuing for chargers happens again. I read the other day that a few councils are fining charger users for overstaying at the charger, others will follow, something else to think about if you are taking the plunge. The demand for second hand EVs is no better but this is working in favour of prices with high depreciation on these. New EVs will do likewise if showrooms want to sell them.

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

'Charging anxiety' dents demand for electric cars (msn.com)

With a busy weekend at Easter should be interesting if the queuing for chargers happens again. I read the other day that a few councils are fining charger users for overstaying at the charger, others will follow, something else to think about if you are taking the plunge. The demand for second hand EVs is no better but this is working in favour of prices with high depreciation on these. New EVs will do likewise if showrooms want to sell them.

They are still selling more of them than ever before though - think as time goes on and it gets closer to the 2030 cut offf point for sales thent he perfectage of EV will continue to increase. It maybe slowing at the moment as people buying new do not need to buy an EV at the moment and just waiting until a few years time when there will be more choice of vehicles and a better charging infracstucture.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

'Charging anxiety' dents demand for electric cars (msn.com)

With a busy weekend at Easter should be interesting if the queuing for chargers happens again. I read the other day that a few councils are fining charger users for overstaying at the charger, others will follow, something else to think about if you are taking the plunge. The demand for second hand EVs is no better but this is working in favour of prices with high depreciation on these. New EVs will do likewise if showrooms want to sell them.

They are still selling more of them than ever before though - think as time goes on and it gets closer to the 2030 cut offf point for sales thent he perfectage of EV will continue to increase. It maybe slowing at the moment as people buying new do not need to buy an EV at the moment and just waiting until a few years time when there will be more choice of vehicles and a better charging infracstucture.

It's more likely that after the initial 'surge' of purchases, which are largely made up of very wealthy people, each subsquent grouping considering buying any new car is likely made up of less and less from the very well off group, meaning they likely are going to wait for prices to fall - whether that be EVs or more likely ICE / hybrid cars.

According to several newspaper reports, the original surge in sales was not (my some margin) matched by a similar increase in fast (and easy-to use & reliable) public charging facilities, especially if you take out all the Tesla-only ones.

Not helped by the significant lengthening of lead times for orders due to 'logistical problems' which, despite the lack of lockdowns, etc, is still affecting a good deal of industry (it's not all high gas and electricity prices either).

I also think that ordinary people who are being seriously squeezed financially at the moment are starting to get fed up with all these price rises are beginning to vote with their wallets and say 'no', never mind that some are concerned about charging and range issues and more people are waking up to the many 'inconsistencies' of the climate change lobby and others who are pushing for the rapid changeover to electric everything that appears only to benefit the very wealthy investor and no-one else.

EV Demand Stalls - barney100

Much sense in this post. I would only consider an EV if the range was much higher, the cost of them was comparable to ice cars and the charging infrastructure was up to the job.

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
The rapid charger providers have had overstay charges for a while now.
Tesla, for example, will charge up to £1 per minute for staying plugged in once charged. That figure will flex dependant on demand - if the site is quiet it’ll be lower, if the majority of chargers are in use it’ll be higher.
EV Demand Stalls - madf

Read this and consider/: "20M Teslas by 2030"

www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesl...d.

EV Demand Stalls - gordonbennet

Well there won't be much excitement to go out and buy, when a new petrol or Diesel model came out people other than the very rich or those wishing to be seen to be doing the right thing actually wanted to go look see try and if possible buy one.

Battery cars have about as much appeal as a new refrigerator, once you've got over Subaru type acceleration a few times but without the noise and excitement what have you got? a car that doesn't sound or look any much different to any other other battery cars whether made in Germany wearing the Porshe badge or made in China wearing whatever they call it today, nothing there to get the pulse going.

When you bought a petrol or Diesel vehicle they all had differing qualities, if you were a Diesel driver you probably like many of us started with something that sounded like a tractor that had no performance at all, then along came turbochargers which changed the Diesel experience completely.

If you bought a petrol you probably started in a 4 cyl NA engined banger of some sort and then over thye years you'd try 5 6 or even 8 pot engines or diversified into the at one time rare turbocharged petrol engines, these were all massively different in sound feel performance etc, engines that had good and bad points and provided pleasure and satisfaction in getting the best out of them, making use of torque if you had the Diesel version.

Then you had a choice of transmission, all with very different characteristics.

What excitement is there to be had from an electric motor, it sounds exactly like any other electric motor unless you are going to feed sounds of proper engines through the audio to aleviate some of the boredom.

As i've said before i have nothing against battery cars or their owners, good luck to those who they suit and those who can milk the tax reliefs and have enjoyed the free or very cheap charging in the honeymoon period.

They do nothing for me and i won't ever buy one, i'm yet to meet another working class person who has actually bought one with their own money and can't say as anyone i know personally has any intention of buying one.

Edited by gordonbennet on 06/04/2023 at 14:42

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

Excellent summary GB easily to get sucked in by the hype but reality is certainly different at the moment. Teslas still dominate at the moment as the EV I see most often. In my opinion they are seriously lacking in any stile look cheap, but are not to buy, and I have not seen a colour I would like, As to the TV screens in EVs a real off put to me. EVs are not ""green"" in their making and as electric is currently generated by 40% gas also a bit iffy. Biomass is now also being seen as non green in that it is reported that ancient forests are being cut down to make the pellets let along all the carbon generated shipping the stuff to the Drax power station. The subsidy to this plant is under review.as trees supposed plant to off set the carbon goes nowhere near.

Some other brands of EV are producing more attractive looking cars but they are all very expensive as are ICE. There are a lot of people with money to spend in the UK but whether a private buyer will part with their money on a very high depreciating asset is something else

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

Well there won't be much excitement to go out and buy, when a new petrol or Diesel model came out people other than the very rich or those wishing to be seen to be doing the right thing actually wanted to go look see try and if possible buy one.

Battery cars have about as much appeal as a new refrigerator, once you've got over Subaru type acceleration a few times but without the noise and excitement what have you got? a car that doesn't sound or look any much different to any other other battery cars whether made in Germany wearing the Porshe badge or made in China wearing whatever they call it today, nothing there to get the pulse going.

When you bought a petrol or Diesel vehicle they all had differing qualities, if you were a Diesel driver you probably like many of us started with something that sounded like a tractor that had no performance at all, then along came turbochargers which changed the Diesel experience completely.

If you bought a petrol you probably started in a 4 cyl NA engined banger of some sort and then over thye years you'd try 5 6 or even 8 pot engines or diversified into the at one time rare turbocharged petrol engines, these were all massively different in sound feel performance etc, engines that had good and bad points and provided pleasure and satisfaction in getting the best out of them, making use of torque if you had the Diesel version.

Then you had a choice of transmission, all with very different characteristics.

What excitement is there to be had from an electric motor, it sounds exactly like any other electric motor unless you are going to feed sounds of proper engines through the audio to aleviate some of the boredom.

As i've said before i have nothing against battery cars or their owners, good luck to those who they suit and those who can milk the tax reliefs and have enjoyed the free or very cheap charging in the honeymoon period.

They do nothing for me and i won't ever buy one, i'm yet to meet another working class person who has actually bought one with their own money and can't say as anyone i know personally has any intention of buying one.

IMO, as Hydrogen ICE are being looked at in a big way, I think ICE will survive and carry on, Toyota are still researching H-ICE and several engines are in the making, and even re made the Miria fuel cell.

several companies are pushing Hydrogen ICE with the intentions of building there own Hydrogen green charging stations which I think will go well as the range is much better than BEV which IMO will not go as well as expected though the leader in the EV market is Tesla

personally as long as my Civic runs as it is I will stick with it as its good enough for me and is ULEZ compliant though hoping our Mayor will blow it out for a few years as it wont do any good to London anyway Contrary to popular belief

having said that going electric is not going to make any difference either

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

This week on "why I don't like EVs"; they don't go brrrrm brrrrm.

EV Demand Stalls - Terry W

ICE with fossil fuel go juice are yesterday. They will be banned and replaced by alternatives - get used to it - they are unsustainable.

ICE tech using green fuels or hydrogen are a possibility. Relatively inefficient vs battery power. Motors are fundamentally more complex with more moving parts and bearings. May need need gearboxes - additional complexity and cost.

Fuel cells are inefficient due to losses in the process - specialist uses but will not be commonly adopted.

The heading "EV demand stalls" is provocative and untrue (rubbish!!). Sales in Jan 2023 are up 20% for BEV, and 40% up for hybrids compared to 2022. For 2022 as a whole BEV rose 40%..

It is not just the "very wealthy" who can afford EVs - deals for basic cars start at ~£300 per month. This is ~£100 pm more than conventionally fuelled - a couple of tanks of fuel. It starts to make some sense for anyone doing mostly local mileage filling up twice a month.

EV Demand Stalls - Xileno

I can understand the appeal of a characterful ICE, the BMW straight-six is one. But it's easy to get a distorted view since we are all motoring enthusiasts on the forum. Many (possibly most) motorists are not and the car is little more than a domestic white good these days. My brother wouldn't know whether his Audi was FWD or RWD or what cc the engine was. As long as it works he has no interest. I think the vast majority would be happy with an EV once there's more choice at lower prices and the range anxiety issues are resolved - whether justified or not.

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
Car and driving enthusiast here, and EV is my preferred method of propulsion.
Anything that requires a series of explosions is so yesterday…
EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

ICE with fossil fuel go juice are yesterday. They will be banned and replaced by alternatives - get used to it - they are unsustainable.

ICE tech using green fuels or hydrogen are a possibility. Relatively inefficient vs battery power. Motors are fundamentally more complex with more moving parts and bearings. May need need gearboxes - additional complexity and cost.

Fuel cells are inefficient due to losses in the process - specialist uses but will not be commonly adopted.

The heading "EV demand stalls" is provocative and untrue (rubbish!!). Sales in Jan 2023 are up 20% for BEV, and 40% up for hybrids compared to 2022. For 2022 as a whole BEV rose 40%..

It is not just the "very wealthy" who can afford EVs - deals for basic cars start at ~£300 per month. This is ~£100 pm more than conventionally fuelled - a couple of tanks of fuel. It starts to make some sense for anyone doing mostly local mileage filling up twice a month.

I suspect as most expect EVs to become mainstream they may get a surprise when Hydrogen does take off and people but the cars, as companies are getting behind it I think it will get going.

some are not making all evs because the costs are more than they are worth as they are so far behind in the tech, no one will buy cars that are basically battery bombs without the electrical problems that will more than likely come about due to speed of innovation being too rapid trying to catch up with Tesla

as for get used to it, no one needs to if ice does carry on, they do expect them to and are in trial

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

Battery Bombs! It is weird that people will happily drive around on 60 litres of fuel that it being intentionally blown up little by little, but are terrified of a battery exploding.

As for Hydrogen, the Toyota Mirai has been around for 9 years, costs £50kto buy, costs as much to fill up as an ICE car and has been bought by nobody. It's hard to see hydrogen taking off any time soon. It's also a lot more likely to explode than a battery!

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

but are terrified of a battery exploding.

Well they don`t explode, exaggeration on my part, though once they set light they don`t stop and finish the motor off, same as a mobile phone would which is more likely than a petrol going up.

I think those against Hydrogen have made there point, and no need to repeat, I think a lot of obstacles in the way of BE for them to get too far for years yet.

too many are doing R&D into FC and Hydrogen ice for them not to be going ahead with it, and green Hydrogen is getting closer

I think it will be a bad idea not to have a choice of fuel, more especially if the tech doesn`t improve as we would be limited to one fuel form ie Battery

EV Demand Stalls - RichardW

The heading "EV demand stalls" is provocative and untrue (rubbish!!). Sales in Jan 2023 are up 20% for BEV, and 40% up for hybrids compared to 2022. For 2022 as a whole BEV rose 40%..

Statistics....

Whilst total no of BEVs is up this is just a consequence of increase in total no of cars sold, the share is flat, 16.1% Mar 22, 16.2% Mar 23.

EV is not the future, and nor is hydrogen; better get used to walking / cycling!!

EV Demand Stalls - Sofa Spud

EV is not the future, and nor is hydrogen; better get used to walking / cycling!!

I think the EV is the future. Look how much progress has been made in battery technology since the first modern mass-produced EV not much more than a decade ago.

But one problem EVs won't solve is congestion. So in that respect more walking / cycling wouldn't be such a bad idea for short distances.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

ICE with fossil fuel go juice are yesterday. They will be banned and replaced by alternatives - get used to it - they are unsustainable.

ICE tech using green fuels or hydrogen are a possibility. Relatively inefficient vs battery power. Motors are fundamentally more complex with more moving parts and bearings. May need need gearboxes - additional complexity and cost.

Fuel cells are inefficient due to losses in the process - specialist uses but will not be commonly adopted.

The heading "EV demand stalls" is provocative and untrue (rubbish!!). Sales in Jan 2023 are up 20% for BEV, and 40% up for hybrids compared to 2022. For 2022 as a whole BEV rose 40%..

It is not just the "very wealthy" who can afford EVs - deals for basic cars start at ~£300 per month. This is ~£100 pm more than conventionally fuelled - a couple of tanks of fuel. It starts to make some sense for anyone doing mostly local mileage filling up twice a month.

£300 a month!? My 17yo N/A petrol ICE car is costing that on average per YEAR in depreciation. I also somehow doubt if an EV at 17 years old and counting would be able to still go the same distance on a tankful (on its original engine parts) as it did on day 1, which, BTW, is about twice the distance most of the top EVs can do.

The reasons why new ICE cars are so expensive (and yet, STILL far cheaper than EVs) are that:

a) their prices are being used to subsidise EV capital costs;

b) so is the fuel to a large extent;

c) so are our electricity and natural gas costs;

d) governments are making too many ridicuolous constraints on safety and emissions systems that barely make any positive difference and yet cost a fortune, pricing many small and low spec cars off the sales lists (most of which are obviously ICE) of manufacturers, with no affordable or viable alternatives;

e) the 'effects' of the P(l)andemic response on logistics and computer chips.

None of the above 'just happened' - they were planned after being cajoled by certain unelected individuals and lobbyist groups.

I would also note that if EVs are much less complex (and the tech mature) and cheaper to run than ICE cars, why are they so much more expensive to buy and they and the electricity they consume has to be so heavily subsidied by all alternative, except, of course jet fuel and private jet travel?

I bet that those 'monthly payments' for EVs will soar once the penny finally drops and the huge cost of running older EVs sinks in - because depreictaion, which currenbtly is very low, will rocket, especially when the publci find out how much they've been subsidising the well-off and PV / wind turbine & car manufacturers so they can even stand a chance in saying they can 'compete' on the purchase and running costs of EVs vs ICE.

Funny how also no-one on the pro-EV side ever mentions the slave and child labour used and environmental cost to mine and process a lot of the raw materials used in the manufacture of EV components, and similarly the great difficulty / energy / environmental cost to make and recycle the battery components in particular.

EV Demand Stalls - focussed

This week on "why I don't like EVs"; they don't go brrrrm brrrrm.

Yeah -I can't wait to chop my 600 mile range diesel in for a 200 mile range electric car.
EV Demand Stalls - Sofa Spud

Battery cars have about as much appeal as a new refrigerator, once you've got over Subaru type acceleration a few times but without the noise and excitement what have you got? a car that doesn't sound or look any much different to any other other battery cars whether made in Germany wearing the Porshe badge or made in China wearing whatever they call it today, nothing there to get the pulse going.

That's a bit like saying petrol or diesel cars have about as much appeal as a lawnmower! Most people want cars to get them from A to B comfortably, safely and efficiently. High-end petrol cars have sold well enough over the years and manufacturers have tried to make them as silent as possible, and most have automatic gearboxes so two pedal like an EV. And EVs free up a lot of space since an electric motor is much smaller than an engine plus gearbox There battery is large and heavy, of course, but it sits under the floor, out of the way.

EV Demand Stalls - skidpan

I would love to see hydrogen replace petrol/diesel as fuel for cars but IMHO its not going to happen.

The infrastructure to distribute petrol/diesel has been developed over the past 100 years or more. There is a network of pipelines covering the country that take the fuel from the refinery to distribution depots meaning tankers are only used for the final bit of the journey. There is no such network for hydrogen and the cost to carry out the work over the next few years would be astronomical. Its just not feasible to move hydrogen around in tankers just like it would not be feasible to move petrol/diesel about without the pipelines.

On the other hand we already have a national grid for electric supply and whilst it may be stretched for a few days in severe winter weather for most of the time it copes perfectly well. Most private users do less miles in a week than the average EV's "real" range so no need to charge every night for 8 hours as the doom spreaders suggest they would. Upgrading this network (where required) makes far more sense together with ensuring there are far more public charging facilities.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

I would love to see hydrogen replace petrol/diesel as fuel for cars but IMHO its not going to happen.

The infrastructure to distribute petrol/diesel has been developed over the past 100 years or more. There is a network of pipelines covering the country that take the fuel from the refinery to distribution depots meaning tankers are only used for the final bit of the journey. There is no such network for hydrogen and the cost to carry out the work over the next few years would be astronomical. Its just not feasible to move hydrogen around in tankers just like it would not be feasible to move petrol/diesel about without the pipelines.

On the other hand we already have a national grid for electric supply and whilst it may be stretched for a few days in severe winter weather for most of the time it copes perfectly well. Most private users do less miles in a week than the average EV's "real" range so no need to charge every night for 8 hours as the doom spreaders suggest they would. Upgrading this network (where required) makes far more sense together with ensuring there are far more public charging facilities.

They wont need tankers at all, hydrogen charging stations will be built similar to a garage where you pay at pump, storage tanks are part of the pump and hydrogen produced on site

Much easier than petrol diesel and as quick to fill up

Problem with batteries too bulky run the risk of fire and charging wont be good enough for the volume of cars expected to use the grid

So far no ones arguments against hydrogen actually stack up, and the r&d into fuel cell and ice carries on, i wont mention it anymore as all thats mentioned is a repeat of whats been said before, no change there.

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

How does a mass produced battery cost £10k or is this just the excuse for a pricy car. An electric motor battery driven has been around for yonks so why is it so costly to scale up to a car or again an excuse to put up the price. Strip out all the components of an ICE and compare the difference in the two. The interiors are the same. I reckon if the truth were known the profit margin on EVs is much bigger compared to ICE. Ask why Tesla can have 2 large price reductions £20k and still be making a living. No the manufacturers should not be giving their cars away but a price parity would go a long way to the take up of EV. But keep the profit high and wait for the Ban on ICE

EV Demand Stalls - pd

EVs are expensive at the moment as manufacturers are trying to cover some of the enormous investment needed to switch to them and the lower economies of scale.

Tesla certainly make a large margin and have potential to cut prices more. They also reckon they can continue to reduce their costs.

Most manufacturers seem to be think EVs will be cheaper to make than ICE by 2026-28 and certainly long term have the potential to be quite a bit cheaper.

The current EVs on the evolution path are roughly the equivalent of a 1988 mobile phone.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

How does a mass produced battery cost £10k or is this just the excuse for a pricy car. An electric motor battery driven has been around for yonks so why is it so costly to scale up to a car or again an excuse to put up the price. Strip out all the components of an ICE and compare the difference in the two. The interiors are the same. I reckon if the truth were known the profit margin on EVs is much bigger compared to ICE. Ask why Tesla can have 2 large price reductions £20k and still be making a living. No the manufacturers should not be giving their cars away but a price parity would go a long way to the take up of EV. But keep the profit high and wait for the Ban on ICE

according to Tesla refining the Lithium is the most expensive part of the battery as it has to be 99% pure, and as not many companies refine it its pricey to buy.

Elon is making a Lithium refinery in Texas so its been reported, apart from reports I have no idea. apparently people were asked to invest in these refineries but no one did so he is doing it instead.

from what I have seen so far the Tesla battery and electronics control units, which are universal to all tesla cars have had a lot of design work put into them to speed up production

please correct if wrong as these reports are not always correct and could be wrong ?

though doubt it as Elon talked about refining Lithium years ago to bring battery costs down

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< Much easier than petrol diesel and as quick to fill up. >>

The trouble with hydrogen is that it is about the least dense material you can find, so a useful amount of energy takes a large volume to store - as well as the need to keep it under high pressure, plus the ease with which it can escape and start fires, if it doesn't actually explode.

I think your optimism will require an inconvenient number of safety precautions for everyday users.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

How long is Hydrogen as a practical solution likely to take?

If it is beyond 2030ish I can't help but think that by 2035 advanced in technology, volume, cost and infrastructure for BEV might make it a bit redundant?

I mean once you get to a reliable 300-400 range, 40% lower cost and 30% smaller size BEVs will work for most people both on a practical and cost level?

EV Demand Stalls - Terry W

The first step in both hydrogen and battery power is generation. What happens afterwards is the difference.

Battery - charge, use. Overall efficiency (energy in vs energy out) is 80-90%.

Hydrogen - electrolysis, pressurise, use in fuel cell or compression ignition. Overall efficiency is ~30%.

Battery needs rare and scarce elements (current tech). Hydrogen needs high pressure storage etc. Both have potential (albeit different) fire risks.

Conclusion - hydrogen may have specialist transport applications but needs much lower energy costs (possibly 75% lower|) than current to be economic.

Lower energy costs need increased capacity to drive market forces. Currently there is a capacity shortage. I don't expect surplus energy to reduce costs in the next 10-20 years.

New technologies need a huge practical or economic advantage to displace a dominant player. Hydrogen has missed the mass market boat - battery power will have a comprehensive infrastructure by 2035-2045 - charging, spares, trained technicians, manufacturing volumes etc.

EV Demand Stalls - barney100

An Audi Etron owner on here has a very salient point. Audi recommend only charging to 80% for normal urban driving. You are unlikely to let the battery drain to much less than 10% so your 3/4 hundred miles ls seriously optimistic in the real world.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

An Audi Etron owner on here has a very salient point. Audi recommend only charging to 80% for normal urban driving. You are unlikely to let the battery drain to much less than 10% so your 3/4 hundred miles ls seriously optimistic in the real world.

Exactly - and I regularly hear 20% as the floor EV owners should not go below (the same as for other products with rechargeable batteries, like mobile phones, laptop computers, etc) because of the long-term demage doing so can cause, often leading to much lower capcity and performance in the future if done regularly.

I doubt if the manufacturers' claims of 'average' mileage (some appear to quote average summer mileage) is based on the 20-80% optimium charging for long-term health of the batteries, more like 10 - 95 to 100%. In reality, that means that the actual range is cut by 30%, even more (another 30%+ depending on the car) for what you actually achieve in the depths of winter.

That could mean the original 'official' range of (say) 200 miles drops to somewhere around 100 miles mark under the worst conditions. Ironically this is where ICE engines, and especially thermally inefficient petrol engines, do well relative to their summer mpg, because a good deal of the engine's waste heat can be used to heat the cabin, which is why they also warm up quicker to their optimum efficiency quicker than a diesel and are better suited to low mileage urban work like the school run.

Hopefully some honesty will find its way into EV range information once a dose of reality emergences as more people buy them, and manufacturers are embarrassed by their claims being nowhere near what people actually achieve, especially if celebrities who virtue-signal in their purchase of said vehicles have such problems that then get widely publicised.

EV Demand Stalls - corax
They wont need tankers at all, hydrogen charging stations will be built similar to a garage where you pay at pump, storage tanks are part of the pump and hydrogen produced on site

Much easier than petrol diesel and as quick to fill up

Problem with batteries too bulky run the risk of fire and charging wont be good enough for the volume of cars expected to use the grid

So far no ones arguments against hydrogen actually stack up, and the r&d into fuel cell and ice carries on, i wont mention it anymore as all thats mentioned is a repeat of whats been said before, no change there.

I would love to see hydrogen used as fuel for transport, but, although I'm not a chemist, I can see the problems transporting or storing it due to it's nature. Do you have any links showing how they are going to produce hydrogen on site, next to the pumps?

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

"" Problem with batteries too bulky run the risk of fire and charging wont be good enough for the volume of cars expected to use the grid """

Talking of fire a large Jaguar dealership in Preston has caught fire overnight. No cause has been given but I was wondering about batteries. London fire brigade are concerned about the number of instances of e-scooters and e bikes causing fires. There are a lot of non approved chargers and other equipment increasing entering the market

EV Demand Stalls - barney100

Apparently a small EV weighs 450lb more than it’s ice equivalent. A larger EV can be be 1000 lbs heavier. This is a lot to lug around.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

Apparently a small EV weighs 450lb more than it’s ICE equivalent. A larger EV can be 1000 lbs heavier. This is a lot to lug around.

And by the laws of physics will require a lot more energy from somewhere. Plus the mass of an EV is essentially constant - the weight of an ICE car reduces as fuel is used. So there should be a marginal advantage in never putting in more than half a tank of fuel :-)

Edited by Andrew-T on 09/04/2023 at 09:28

EV Demand Stalls - Brit_in_Germany

What is this law of physics?

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

What is this law of physics?

It's something to do with requiring more energy to accelerate a large mass from rest than a small one ? And then to keep it overcoming the larger losses in rolling resistance ?

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

What is this law of physics?

It's something to do with requiring more energy to accelerate a large mass from rest than a small one ? And then to keep it overcoming the larger losses in rolling resistance ?

Show me the law of physics that allows the energy captured from slowing that mass to refill the petrol tank!

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

What is this law of physics?

It's something to do with requiring more energy to accelerate a large mass from rest than a small one ? And then to keep it overcoming the larger losses in rolling resistance ?

Show me the law of physics that allows the energy captured from slowing that mass to refill the petrol tank!

'I cannae change the laws of physics, Cap'n! As someone famously once said. ;-)

EV Demand Stalls - Brit_in_Germany

Equally, a heavier car has more kinetic energy to be converted into stored energy in the batteries. There will a degree of hysteresis but I have no idea what scale. An increase in rolling resistance will most likely be slight compared with lighter EVs. Compared with ICEs, removing the drive train will lower the frictional losses. EVs tend to be better designed with regard to wind resistance to increase range.

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
I can only offer a little bit of science in this discussion, but if you switch on One Pedal Drive (maximum regeneration) a Polestar 2 will decelerate at a force of up to 0.2G - similar to light to moderate braking.
Switch regen off and you’ve 2 tonnes of kinetic energy, in an aerodynamically slippery body, on low rolling resistance tyres, with zero engine braking and no frictional losses through a box full of spinning cogs in transmission fluid.
Needless to say, they roll a long way…
EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

no frictional losses through a box full of spinning cogs in transmission fluid.

reduced frictional loss, no such thing as no loss !

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

no frictional losses through a box full of spinning cogs in transmission fluid.

reduced frictional loss, no such thing as no loss !

No frictional loss through the gearbox, because there isn't one.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

no frictional losses through a box full of spinning cogs in transmission fluid.

reduced frictional loss, no such thing as no loss !

No frictional loss through the gearbox, because there isn't one.

I was actually thinking of the bearings in the motor and wheel bearings.. I know they don`t have a gearbox, unless you include a diff

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

EVs tend to be better designed with regard to wind resistance to increase range.

I thought wind-tunnel testing had been optimised to death about 20 years ago. Has someone had a sudden brainwave just to improve the range of an EV marginally ?

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
Vastly different cooling requirements for EV vs ICE.
No need to channel air through a radiator or intercooler means that air can be directed over the car rather than through an obstructive series of matrices.
The undersides can also be tidied up aerodynamically by shrouding in the battery pack.
EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T
Vastly different cooling requirements for EV vs ICE. No need to channel air through a radiator or intercooler means that air can be directed over the car rather than through an obstructive series of matrices. The undersides can also be tidied up aerodynamically by shrouding in the battery pack.

Very true, but most electric motors I know of generate quite a bit of heat, especially when working hard ?

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr
Vastly different cooling requirements for EV vs ICE. No need to channel air through a radiator or intercooler means that air can be directed over the car rather than through an obstructive series of matrices. The undersides can also be tidied up aerodynamically by shrouding in the battery pack.

Very true, but most electric motors I know of generate quite a bit of heat, especially when working hard ?

As I understand it, they are liquid cooled, but not to anything like the same extent, so the same airflow is not required.

EV Demand Stalls - badbusdriver

EVs tend to be better designed with regard to wind resistance to increase range.

I thought wind-tunnel testing had been optimised to death about 20 years ago. Has someone had a sudden brainwave just to improve the range of an EV marginally ?

The knowledge is certainly there, but alas aerodynamic efficiency plays second fiddle to the whims of fashion. Nobody is overly concerned (within reason) that their unnecessarily huge ICE SUV doesn't give that much MPG because it is quick enough to fill it up again. There is a (by no means complete) list of various cars from over the years and their respective Cd figures on Wiki. Some interesting comparisons to be made between old an new and there are plenty of instances of cars from the 60's or older having a lower Cd figure than ones from 2000 onwards. One for you specifically is a 1986 Peugeot 309 being more aerodynamic than a 2008 VW Tiguan!. Peak aerodynamic efficiency the first time round seems to have stopped with the Vauxhall Calibra in 1989, then, for whatever reason, designers and manufacturers decided that it wasn't that important (within reason). It took more than a decade before a more aerodynamic production car than the Calibra came along (1st gen Honda Insight), but it is only really within the last 5-10 years that there have been more than a handful.

But with EV's being the thing now, and (rightly or wrongly) range anxiety being of chief concern to buyers (specifically the time taken to recharge), it has suddenly become much more important to maximise potential range. And unless common sense returns re the size, complexity and therefore weight of cars, the only thing manufacturers can do is make the car as aerodynamically efficient as possible. Easier for a new start up like Tesla who don't have to deal with buyers preconception of what a Tesla should look like, so (sensibly) they have made the cars as slippery as possible.

Edited by badbusdriver on 10/04/2023 at 10:25

EV Demand Stalls - corax

Apparently a small EV weighs 450lb more than it’s ICE equivalent. A larger EV can be 1000 lbs heavier. This is a lot to lug around.

And by the laws of physics will require a lot more energy from somewhere. Plus the mass of an EV is essentially constant - the weight of an ICE car reduces as fuel is used. So there should be a marginal advantage in never putting in more than half a tank of fuel :-)

But as an electric motor produces maximum torque from a standstill, maybe it compensates for the greater weight?

EV Demand Stalls - badbusdriver

Apparently a small EV weighs 450lb more than it’s ICE equivalent. A larger EV can be 1000 lbs heavier. This is a lot to lug around.

And by the laws of physics will require a lot more energy from somewhere. Plus the mass of an EV is essentially constant - the weight of an ICE car reduces as fuel is used. So there should be a marginal advantage in never putting in more than half a tank of fuel :-)

But as an electric motor produces maximum torque from a standstill, maybe it compensates for the greater weight?

The instant torque makes it easier to get a heavier car off the line, so to speak, but it doesn't change the amount of energy required to do so. But once up to main road speeds, aerodynamics plays by far the biggest part in efficiency, extra weight (within reason) doesn't make any appreciable difference. I have no doubt that a 2000kg Tesla Model S would need less energy to maintain a 70mph cruise than our 850kg Suzuki Ignis, because it is so much more aerodynamic.

BTW, the extra weight a small EV is carrying over a n/a equivalent is more like 300kg (660lb).

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
At maximum regeneration, it’s up to 100kW being fed back towards the battery. If you watch the dashboard display it’s only for a very short time but it beats going to waste.
EV Demand Stalls - Warning

Evs are prefect for cities, but there is little infrastructure. Having seen Youtube videos of people with EVs, they seem to plan their route around chargers. Even when they get there, they often find the charger is not working.

I have been considerings buying a used EVs, but the battery capacity on older EVs is small and none of the car dealership tell you what the remaining range on the battery is. As they degrade over time.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

Even when they get there, they often find the charger is not working.

Or if it is working, someone else will be using it for a while.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

Evs are prefect for cities, but there is little infrastructure. Having seen Youtube videos of people with EVs, they seem to plan their route around chargers. Even when they get there, they often find the charger is not working.

What a wonderful life these people must lead, revolving around their mobile phone and car charger app. :-)

I have been considerings buying a used EVs, but the battery capacity on older EVs is small and none of the car dealership tell you what the remaining range on the battery is. As they degrade over time.

I've heard accounts of early gen-1 Leafs getting well under 40 miles average in range, which means in winter, you might be lucky to make it nto work and back should you get stuck in a traffic jam.

Given it's highly likely anyone buying such a car would be on a lower income and probably would not have access to a home (and probably work-based) charger, that would leave them at the mercy of public chargers, which in many areas are, as many have said, few and far between, often not in working order, low output or in use.

I have visions of the old line fromn the husband saying "i'm just going down the pub for a jar or two" to "I'm just going to the next town to charge the battery for 3 hours - see you at supper time".

So much to look foward to in the world of the Great Reset and Build Back 'Better'...

EV Demand Stalls - pd

Why would anyone buy an old Leaf unless they had particular circumstances that it fitted their use?

Clearly they wouldn't. An early Leaf only did 75-100 miles best case when new so clearly an old one isn't going to suit someone who does anything more than pottering about local mileage. I can see the use for one. For example, you live in London, can charge easily and spend all day doing 10 miles stuck in traffic. If you live in the North Yorkshire Moors I would say it is less suitable.

EV Demand Stalls - Ethan Edwards

Just to let you know. The UK now has over 40,000 (and climbing) EV charging points. I believe we also have about 8 ( plus or minus) Hydrogen points.

Edited by Ethan Edwards on 07/04/2023 at 18:57

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Quite. They suit a particular type of user.

If you do longer journeys, can't easily charge or is maybe your own car you'd only buy one if you were an i****. So I don't get the problem. And the LEAF has a large display on the dashboard to tell you the health of the battery,

Edited by pd on 07/04/2023 at 19:26

EV Demand Stalls - paul 1963

All I can add is if you've never tried a EV then you really should, your mind set quickly changes regarding 'charging anxiety ', as much as I still enjoy a good fruity petrol engine wafting around in silence is rather nice.....

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Perhaps, but only if you can get it chared and don't do longer journeys, especially in winter. I wouldn't be suprised if some of them had at least part of their battery packs changed out.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Perhaps, but only if you can get it chared and don't do longer journeys, especially in winter. I wouldn't be suprised if some of them had at least part of their battery packs changed out.

I very much doubt it. The cars are not worth enough to make it worthwhile.

The early Leafs are rather "proof of concept" cars. They can serve a purpose but are hardly mainstream. If you do long journeys then clearly you wouldn't buy one any more than you'd buy a Smart ForTwo if your main use was long motorway journeys with 4 passengers.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Perhaps, but only if you can get it chared and don't do longer journeys, especially in winter. I wouldn't be suprised if some of them had at least part of their battery packs changed out.

I very much doubt it. The cars are not worth enough to make it worthwhile.

The early Leafs are rather "proof of concept" cars. They can serve a purpose but are hardly mainstream. If you do long journeys then clearly you wouldn't buy one any more than you'd buy a Smart ForTwo if your main use was long motorway journeys with 4 passengers.

The problem is that the 'power that be' are expecting the Plebs to buy such cars because all the alternatives will be either too expensive or in many cases not suited to their needs, e.g. way too big (many EVs are large) or too small (e.g. the Renault Zoe).

There aren't many 'affordable' second hand EVs that are the size of a Fiesta or Focus. As you say, the first gen (dried up old?) Leaf was essentially a concept car, and yet the entire Western world is being forced to buy such vehicles and 2nd gen cars (at a big price premium) that whilst better, still don't even come close to ICE on range, and we still have the big problem of charging outside of certain bigger cities.

Like with the 'encouragement' 20 odd years ago to change to diesel, these policies - once again - have to been thought through with the benefit of the ordinary (and especially the lower income) person in mind, especially outside of a few big cities. I suspect they have been 'carefully crafted' by 'influential people and firms / organisations' to significantly benefit them financially and in terms of (unelected) power over us all.

EV Demand Stalls - badbusdriver

There aren't many 'affordable' second hand EVs that are the size of a Fiesta or Focus. As you say, the first gen (dried up old?) Leaf was essentially a concept car, and yet the entire Western world is being forced to buy such vehicles and 2nd gen cars (at a big price premium) that whilst better, still don't even come close to ICE on range, and we still have the big problem of charging outside of certain bigger cities.

Who is forcing the entire western world to buy old EV's?

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

There aren't many 'affordable' second hand EVs that are the size of a Fiesta or Focus. As you say, the first gen (dried up old?) Leaf was essentially a concept car, and yet the entire Western world is being forced to buy such vehicles and 2nd gen cars (at a big price premium) that whilst better, still don't even come close to ICE on range, and we still have the big problem of charging outside of certain bigger cities.

Who is forcing the entire western world to buy old EV's?

Governments, given they will be pricing ICE out soon via various means. Those who normally buy older cars will have a Hobson's choice between buying from less and less (more highly specced, larger only) ICE cars and paying a lot more for fuel (because governments have upped the tax on it and because of increases in the cost of drilling), vs buying older EVs that aren't suitable/viable (see earlier comments) vs using public transport and paying a good deal of money to hire vehicles when walking, cycling or public transport is not practical.

What other choice do they have post 2030 (and before as car manufacturers are forced [from 2026 at least] to sell increasing percentages of EV cars, meaning the pool of ICE ones dwindles, and more rapidly for smaller, lower spec cars)?

EV Demand Stalls - gordonbennet

What other choice do they have post 2030 (and before as car manufacturers are forced [from 2026 at least] to sell increasing percentages of EV cars, meaning the pool of ICE ones dwindles, and more rapidly for smaller, lower spec cars)?

If people stopped copying turkeys, ie voting for Christmas, they might be able to effect some change, whilst they continue to vote the same as they always do whilst amazingly expecting a different result each time nothing will change.

Won't happen of course, no matter how bad things get, how many freedoms will be taken, how much of our once lovely country is concreted over, how much less net pay people have left after successive govts have filched whatever they had left from their wallets, they will still accept whatever the govt and media say as gospel and nod along.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Perhaps, but only if you can get it chared and don't do longer journeys, especially in winter. I wouldn't be suprised if some of them had at least part of their battery packs changed out.

I very much doubt it. The cars are not worth enough to make it worthwhile.

The early Leafs are rather "proof of concept" cars. They can serve a purpose but are hardly mainstream. If you do long journeys then clearly you wouldn't buy one any more than you'd buy a Smart ForTwo if your main use was long motorway journeys with 4 passengers.

The problem is that the 'power that be' are expecting the Plebs to buy such cars because all the alternatives will be either too expensive or in many cases not suited to their needs, e.g. way too big (many EVs are large) or too small (e.g. the Renault Zoe).

There aren't many 'affordable' second hand EVs that are the size of a Fiesta or Focus. As you say, the first gen (dried up old?) Leaf was essentially a concept car, and yet the entire Western world is being forced to buy such vehicles and 2nd gen cars (at a big price premium) that whilst better, still don't even come close to ICE on range, and we still have the big problem of charging outside of certain bigger cities.

What powers or rules are forcing anyone to buy a 12 year old LEAF? None. There aren't many "affordable" EVs because they haven't been out long. It is like complaining there aren't affordable examples of the 8th generation Vauxhall Astra. No, there aren't. Why? Because it only came out last year.

By the time the "plebs" as you call them feel the need due to rules or simple convenience of not being able to buy petrol they'll be looking at 10-15 year old cars which haven't been built yet or possibly even been thought of. Just like they'd be looking at a late 6th generation or maybe early 7th generation Astra now. They certainly won't be looking at a 25 year old LEAF any more than they'd be looking at a Vauxhall Cavalier now.

There will be plenty of used EVs in 10-15 years time. Heck decent Mk 2 LEAFS will soon be beginning to dip under £10k if you really want that LEAF.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

There is an EV specialist near me. They have, amongst other things, three Leafs below £8k all still charging to more than 80% of their original capacity. Nice runabouts for shopping and the school run. Getting stuck in traffic is not a problem for them as they don't draw power when they're stood still.

Perhaps, but only if you can get it chared and don't do longer journeys, especially in winter. I wouldn't be suprised if some of them had at least part of their battery packs changed out.

I very much doubt it. The cars are not worth enough to make it worthwhile.

The early Leafs are rather "proof of concept" cars. They can serve a purpose but are hardly mainstream. If you do long journeys then clearly you wouldn't buy one any more than you'd buy a Smart ForTwo if your main use was long motorway journeys with 4 passengers.

The problem is that the 'power that be' are expecting the Plebs to buy such cars because all the alternatives will be either too expensive or in many cases not suited to their needs, e.g. way too big (many EVs are large) or too small (e.g. the Renault Zoe).

There aren't many 'affordable' second hand EVs that are the size of a Fiesta or Focus. As you say, the first gen (dried up old?) Leaf was essentially a concept car, and yet the entire Western world is being forced to buy such vehicles and 2nd gen cars (at a big price premium) that whilst better, still don't even come close to ICE on range, and we still have the big problem of charging outside of certain bigger cities.

What powers or rules are forcing anyone to buy a 12 year old LEAF? None. There aren't many "affordable" EVs because they haven't been out long. It is like complaining there aren't affordable examples of the 8th generation Vauxhall Astra. No, there aren't. Why? Because it only came out last year.

By the time the "plebs" as you call them feel the need due to rules or simple convenience of not being able to buy petrol they'll be looking at 10-15 year old cars which haven't been built yet or possibly even been thought of. Just like they'd be looking at a late 6th generation or maybe early 7th generation Astra now. They certainly won't be looking at a 25 year old LEAF any more than they'd be looking at a Vauxhall Cavalier now.

There will be plenty of used EVs in 10-15 years time. Heck decent Mk 2 LEAFS will soon be beginning to dip under £10k if you really want that LEAF.

See my comments to BBD on the same. BTW - not everyone can afford a £10k car. Many people can only afford something in the £2k - £5k range, and I certainly wouldn't trust an old EV on its last legs, given how expensive the batteries cost, especially as when its that old, how much electronics are still available and at a reasonable price?

As cars become more and more 'computer-like', they will be likely have even more 'planned obsolescence' where parts aren't interchangeable with the latest ones due to differences in size, usage characteristics and connection compatability. If I tried to find replacements for components in my older mobile phones (one is 20 years old but a then common model) or PCs / tablets, I'd find it hard to source genuine new / unused parts and at a reasonable price.

I can''t believe that EV batteries or motors won't change enough by (say) 2030 that those built in the 2010s will be completely incompatible with the tech 10-15 years later, and given how quickly the tech is developing, I can see this affecting a lot of 1st and 2nd gen cars. I wouldn't want to take the risk of buying one when I could be left with a valueless car if the motor or batteries fail or the battery pack's range is so low that I'm charging it up every 20 miles or so. Nor would I have the money to replace either if I could only afford a car in that price range I spoke of.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

See my comments to BBD on the same. BTW - not everyone can afford a £10k car. Many people can only afford something in the £2k - £5k range, and I certainly wouldn't trust an old EV on its last legs, given how expensive the batteries cost, especially as when its that old, how much electronics are still available and at a reasonable price?

As cars become more and more 'computer-like', they will be likely have even more 'planned obsolescence' where parts aren't interchangeable with the latest ones due to differences in size, usage characteristics and connection compatability. If I tried to find replacements for components in my older mobile phones (one is 20 years old but a then common model) or PCs / tablets, I'd find it hard to source genuine new / unused parts and at a reasonable price.

I can''t believe that EV batteries or motors won't change enough by (say) 2030 that those built in the 2010s will be completely incompatible with the tech 10-15 years later, and given how quickly the tech is developing, I can see this affecting a lot of 1st and 2nd gen cars. I wouldn't want to take the risk of buying one when I could be left with a valueless car if the motor or batteries fail or the battery pack's range is so low that I'm charging it up every 20 miles or so. Nor would I have the money to replace either if I could only afford a car in that price range I spoke of.

Well it's a 2019 car so they won't be buying a 2019 Focus either for £3k. They will be able to buy one of either in 8 years time.

I don't see why EVs wont last - in fact they have the potential to last a lot longer than ICE cars most of which I come across in the £3k-5k are frankly completely knackered. Not all by any means but quite a few.

Any cheap old car is a risk. A sudden clutch hydraulic failure will cost you £1200 or so. And yes it happens a lot. Many £3k ICE cars get written off due to repair costs.

EVs really won't be any different. As with buying a ICE car check the capacity/range at full charge. Check it drives OK. They are just cars at the end of the day which will depreciate to scrap and be returned to tin cans ICE or EV.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

See my comments to BBD on the same. BTW - not everyone can afford a £10k car. Many people can only afford something in the £2k - £5k range, and I certainly wouldn't trust an old EV on its last legs, given how expensive the batteries cost, especially as when its that old, how much electronics are still available and at a reasonable price?

As cars become more and more 'computer-like', they will be likely have even more 'planned obsolescence' where parts aren't interchangeable with the latest ones due to differences in size, usage characteristics and connection compatability. If I tried to find replacements for components in my older mobile phones (one is 20 years old but a then common model) or PCs / tablets, I'd find it hard to source genuine new / unused parts and at a reasonable price.

I can''t believe that EV batteries or motors won't change enough by (say) 2030 that those built in the 2010s will be completely incompatible with the tech 10-15 years later, and given how quickly the tech is developing, I can see this affecting a lot of 1st and 2nd gen cars. I wouldn't want to take the risk of buying one when I could be left with a valueless car if the motor or batteries fail or the battery pack's range is so low that I'm charging it up every 20 miles or so. Nor would I have the money to replace either if I could only afford a car in that price range I spoke of.

Well it's a 2019 car so they won't be buying a 2019 Focus either for £3k. They will be able to buy one of either in 8 years time.

I don't see why EVs wont last - in fact they have the potential to last a lot longer than ICE cars most of which I come across in the £3k-5k are frankly completely knackered. Not all by any means but quite a few.

Any cheap old car is a risk. A sudden clutch hydraulic failure will cost you £1200 or so. And yes it happens a lot. Many £3k ICE cars get written off due to repair costs.

EVs really won't be any different. As with buying a ICE car check the capacity/range at full charge. Check it drives OK. They are just cars at the end of the day which will depreciate to scrap and be returned to tin cans ICE or EV.

I'm not so sure about long term longevity of the 1st and at least 2nd gen EVs. As I've stated in the thread about 'Chinese products', there's been a gradual dip in the quality of components in manufacturing, and in my view, especially in electronics over the past 20 years due to downward pressures on costs.

Yes, they can DO MORE, and advances in tech would allow for far higher levels of reliability and longevity, but only if the correct levels of R&D (testing in particular) is done, which would show the true cost of the equipment / systems. Unfortunately, many manufactures cut corners in order to get as much 'new stuff' to market to match/beat rivals and worry about reliability, longevity etc later.

Many products are also designed with a relatively short lifespan - not necessarily that they will completely fail, but one sub-component or a software system might, but which is uneconomic or physically impossible to repair, and a replacement becomes increasingly expensive - like computer parts, as they get more than 5-7 years or a couple of full generations from the original design - new 'versions' may be completely imcompatible.

Cars have international laws that say manufacturers must keep / make parts for 10 years after the car goes out of production, but it doesn't mean those parts must stay at a reasonable price in line with general inflation. This ramping up of OEM parts for older equipment well above inflation - especially for products that were not in the top few of sales happens across many industries.

I don't see it being any different with EVs, and because they rely on complex electronics and software only, this, in my view, will just exaccerbate the problem. This is born out with Tesla apparently ( as far as I can tell) refusing to do any work on older cars (10 years+) of theirs or provide parts to any indie willing to work on them.

This is why I said before (more tha once) that unless and until EVs go 'standard' on components, so (like with PCs) you can use several different makes of otherwise standard motors, computer control systems, etc (and thus the 'engine' bay needs to be laid out to accommodate slightly different sized/shaped components), few 'pattern' parts manufacturers will bother because too few people will be able to afford replacemement parts.

Besides - an old EV with barely sufficient range to go to work on a good day (never mind longer trips out) is hardly a recipe for a good ownership experience. Would anyone seriously want to own an ICE car that can only drive 20-40 miles before reuiring a fill-up?

Note that most clutch replacements cost well under £1k, whereas a complete battery pack replacement for an EV is at least 5x as much, if not a LOT more. Mots ICE cars that are reasonable well-cared-for tend to have 'failures' in dribs and drabs as they age, not all at once, giving owners a chance to either repair, replace or put up with a problem. And there's a lot of small-scale indies to do that work - not with EVs, as far as I can tell.

It's why I think the timescale and method of the changeover is way too fast / coercive, by a factor of at least 2, if not 3-5x.

EV Demand Stalls - RT

Why would anyone buy an old Leaf unless they had particular circumstances that it fitted their use?

Clearly they wouldn't. An early Leaf only did 75-100 miles best case when new so clearly an old one isn't going to suit someone who does anything more than pottering about local mileage. I can see the use for one. For example, you live in London, can charge easily and spend all day doing 10 miles stuck in traffic. If you live in the North Yorkshire Moors I would say it is less suitable.

A few years ago I bought a 10-year old Citroen C1 as an urban runabout - it does about 1,000 miles/yesr - the Nissan Leaf would be a modern EV equivalent altough at 3x the price I'll keep the C1.

EV Demand Stalls - Warning

Why would anyone buy an old Leaf unless they had particular circumstances that it fitted their use?

Clearly they wouldn't.

People can make mistakes and not aware of asking the right questions. I am struggling to compare used electric cars, because I don't know what is the remaining life of the battery.

EV Demand Stalls - Warning

I've heard accounts of early gen-1 Leafs getting well under 40 miles average in range, which means in winter, you might be lucky to make it nto work and back should you get stuck in a traffic jam.

It is worse then that. I am not expert, but this is my understanding.

As a car battery ages, it typically requires more electricity to charge up fully. This is because as a battery ages, its internal resistance increases, which makes it harder for electricity to flow through the battery. As a result, it takes more energy to push the same amount of electricity through the battery.

In which case the cost per miles is significantly more.

Nor does it charge up any faster. If your battery capacity is at 30% of when new, it won't take 30% of the time to re-charge.

Any EV experts willing to confirm this?

Edited by Warning on 08/04/2023 at 15:45

EV Demand Stalls - galileo

As a car battery ages, it typically requires more electricity to charge up fully. This is because as a battery ages, its internal resistance increases, which makes it harder for electricity to flow through the battery. As a result, it takes more energy to push the same amount of electricity through the battery.

Nor does it charge up at 30% of when new, it won't take 30% of the time to re-charge.

From my understanding of Ohm's Law, if resistance increases, current decreases if the supply voltage is the same.

A given quantity of electricity will take longer to flow if resistance is increased but if the cost is based on total current x time it should not cost more, should it?

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
‘ All I can add is if you've never tried a EV then you really should, your mind set quickly changes regarding 'charging anxiety ', as much as I still enjoy a good fruity petrol engine wafting around in silence is rather nice...’

Exactly this. There are pop-up test drive events popping up all over the place to drive EV’s of all brands with no need to go to a dealership or interact with a sales exec.
ORA, Polestar or Genesis will bring a car to your home address for you to drive. No pressure, no obligation, no card reader to take a deposit.
EV Demand Stalls - Wee Willie Winkie

We travelled from Liverpool to Norwich last Satirday, returning yesterday. The journey should have taken about 4.5 hours, including a quick Tesla supercharger charge stop at Grantham for my Model 3, in order to arrive at the holiday cottage with 50% to give a buffer (no charging at the cottage).

Typically, between J17 and J16 of the M6, we got caught up in a full closure. 4 hours sat without moving. In that time, my battery went from 75% to 74% and that's with using the aircon and watching films on the 'ridiculous' touchscreen.

Once in Norwich, we were at the mercy of public chargers - luckily the excellent Gridserve facilities just outside Norwich are brilliant. Loads of chargers - and the Tesla ones at a reasonable price (39p per kWh). In fact, I think all our supercharger stops were the same cost.

Journey back yesterday uneventful. Quick stop at Nottingham superchargers to add a few %.

I noticed whilst in Norfolk an awful lots of EVs.

I wouldn't go back to ICE. I'll be changing my car next year, it'll be another EV - probably a Model Y.

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
Agreed, the Gridserve locations are brilliant. They really are the future, like a motorway service station but nice places to sit.
I’ve worked at the Braintree and Norwich locations and they’re more a destination than a stopping off point.
EV Demand Stalls - Steveieb

Think you are right MCB and others who praise EVs.

But for the many like me , old and young who are not that organised they can mean lots of heartaches and stress.

So if that’s the case stick to ICE cars.

I have an A4tdi which will take me from Northampton to Edinburgh and return on one tank of fuel.

An Etron will manage home to Nottingham return

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
‘ I have an A4tdi which will take me from Northampton to Edinburgh and return on one tank of fuel.’

And if I ever need to drive, non-stop, from Nottingham to Edinburgh, turn around and drive straight back again I’ll seriously consider an Audi A4tdi :).
EV Demand Stalls - Xileno

I think some of it is psychological as much as anything. When I had the Megane 1.5 diesel and was travelling from West Wilts to central France four times a year (about 500 miles), I could comfortably do that on a tank and still have a quarter left. It was a nice feeling not needing to stop at the expensive and crowded motorway service stations and instead use the less sophisticated 'aires' where there was just parking and basic facilities. We always had several stops if only to change driver and have a coffee and eat so it wouldn't have been any problem to charge up assuming a charger was there.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

I see from today's Times that the latest worry about EVs is that their combined extra weight may threaten the structural integrity of some multi-storey car parks. At half an extra ton per car I suppose it is a remote possibility ?

EV Demand Stalls - Terry W

A cubic metre of concrete weighs 2.5 tonnes..

A very crude estimate - the space taken up by cars is 2.5m wide x 5m long. Then double it for access/circulation, pedestrians, lifts, stairs etc. Assume the deck is 30cm thick typically.

Total concrete per car is 7.5 cm m = 18.75 tons. Plus car - say 20 tonnes. I assume car parks would have been built with a calculated safety margin - perhaps a design loading of twice the calculated structure weight - total say 40 tonnes.

It may be that an extra 400kg (an extra 1% load) will cause a truly decrepit car park to fail catastrophically. But if it is that close to collapse it should be closed anyway.

A daft proposition invented by the anti-EV brigade to garner support from the ignorant or unthinking for perpetuating ICE.

EV Demand Stalls - RT

A cubic metre of concrete weighs 2.5 tonnes..

A very crude estimate - the space taken up by cars is 2.5m wide x 5m long. Then double it for access/circulation, pedestrians, lifts, stairs etc. Assume the deck is 30cm thick typically.

Total concrete per car is 7.5 cm m = 18.75 tons. Plus car - say 20 tonnes. I assume car parks would have been built with a calculated safety margin - perhaps a design loading of twice the calculated structure weight - total say 40 tonnes.

It may be that an extra 400kg (an extra 1% load) will cause a truly decrepit car park to fail catastrophically. But if it is that close to collapse it should be closed anyway.

A daft proposition invented by the anti-EV brigade to garner support from the ignorant or unthinking for perpetuating ICE.

The problem is that many multi-storey cars parks were built in an era of poor quality concreting and time has just made them worse.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

I see from today's Times that the latest worry about EVs is that their combined extra weight may threaten the structural integrity of some multi-storey car parks. At half an extra ton per car I suppose it is a remote possibility ?

Very remote at best. A similar report appeared in the Telegraph. Not sure what 'experts' they talked to, but in my experience dealing with structural engineers on design teams (as the mechanical building services engineer), buildings are, like aircraft, designed with many magnitudes of safety margins in mind on the loading.

Cars have been getting heavier for decades now, with many ICE cars being well in excess of 2 tonnes, and I haven't heard of many multi-storey car parks collapsing under the extra weight.

As much as I'm against the significantly overly fast move from ICE to so-called green car technology alternatives (better to do it over 50+ years, not 10-25 and use far more carrot than stick), this is a fuss over nothing. Far more on other issues related to the changes to be rightly concerned about, in my view.

EV Demand Stalls - Xileno

It was on R4 this morning. They mentioned a 'possible risk'. I suppose there's a possible risk of almost anything!

EV Demand Stalls - Wee Willie Winkie

Total **ll***s article. They compare the weight of a Model 3 to a 1970s Ford Cortina! They fail to mention there's plenty of cars heavier than a Ford Cortina, or even a Model 3!

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

Total **ll***s article. They compare the weight of a Model 3 to a 1970s Ford Cortina! They fail to mention there's plenty of cars heavier than a Ford Cortina, or even a Model 3!

But not when those car parks were built. No doubt a few transit vans and the like used to park there, but if EVs become the vehicle of choice, loading can only increase while old structures weaken slowly. Tho I suppose if the parking spaces have to be enlarged the total load may not change too much ... :-)

Edited by Andrew-T on 11/04/2023 at 17:39

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< ... buildings are, like aircraft, designed with many magnitudes of safety margins in mind on the loading. >>

As an engineer you will know very well that as experience advances, many structures and machines become steadily less over-engineered. Think no further than the latest large bridges, which appear to be made of almost nothing compared to earlier designs.

And of course while this evolution takes place, clumsy quick-build structures like multi-storey car parks get slowly weaker as the reinforcement corrodes invisibly. If and when a failure happens, I suppose the extra weight of EVs may take the blame :-)

EV Demand Stalls - Brit_in_Germany

I would be more worried about bridges in Italy collapsing under the weight of all these EVs.

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

And of course while this evolution takes place, clumsy quick-build structures like multi-storey car parks get slowly weaker as the reinforcement corrodes invisibly. If and when a failure happens, I suppose the extra weight of EVs may take the blame :-)

I do wonder if this is what's going on already? One of the multi storey car parks in Exeter is on its way out as the rebar has rotted (unless a lot of EVs parked their one night...) and the Council would love an excuse other than it was rubbish 50 years ago and nobody has maintained it.

As usual with these things, there will soon be more inspections and more old, cheap, car parks will be condemned. We can't have Councils of all colours admitting that they are either negligent or underfunded, so something outside of their control must be identified.

EV Demand Stalls - galileo

And of course while this evolution takes place, clumsy quick-build structures like multi-storey car parks get slowly weaker as the reinforcement corrodes invisibly. If and when a failure happens, I suppose the extra weight of EVs may take the blame :-)

I do wonder if this is what's going on already? One of the multi storey car parks in Exeter is on its way out as the rebar has rotted (unless a lot of EVs parked their one night...) and the Council would love an excuse other than it was rubbish 50 years ago and nobody has maintained it.

As usual with these things, there will soon be more inspections and more old, cheap, car parks will be condemned. We can't have Councils of all colours admitting that they are either negligent or underfunded, so something outside of their control must be identified.

The multi-story car park nearest our town centre was demolished as 'unsafe' about 3 or 4 years ago.

It was built in the late 1960s as part of the 'improvement' scheme which demolished a Victorian Market Hall (which hadn't been found structurally unsafe) and many other fine buildings.

EV Demand Stalls - gordonbennet

It was built in the late 1960s as part of the 'improvement' scheme which demolished a Victorian Market Hall (which hadn't been found structurally unsafe) and many other fine buildings.

Flogging too good for them, tastefully renovated and sensibly repurposed old buildings are a joy to behold.

EV Demand Stalls - corax
which demolished a Victorian Market Hall (which hadn't been found structurally unsafe)

Well, it wouldn't be, it was Victorian :-)

They even made water dams an engineering masterpiece. I did a walk near the Settle and Carlisle viaduct across a hill called Whernside in Yorkshire. A stream had been diverted over the railway line next to the footpath. There were a series of cut stone steps and small waterfalls to make the water change direction. Then it swept down a shaped stone gully before disappearing into the land on the other side. They didn't have to make it such a spectacle, but that's what set them apart. Found it hard to drag myself away and continue the walk.

Edited by corax on 11/04/2023 at 13:53

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< I did a walk near the Settle and Carlisle viaduct across a hill called Whernside in Yorkshire. A stream had been diverted over the railway line next to the footpath. >>

I know the place you mean, near Blea Moor signal box, a bit north of Ribblehead. We stayed a week at a farm near the viaduct a few years ago. Wouldn't fancy it in wild weather though ...

EV Demand Stalls - corax

<< I did a walk near the Settle and Carlisle viaduct across a hill called Whernside in Yorkshire. A stream had been diverted over the railway line next to the footpath. >>

I know the place you mean, near Blea Moor signal box, a bit north of Ribblehead. We stayed a week at a farm near the viaduct a few years ago. Wouldn't fancy it in wild weather though ...

That's it. Imagine what it was like for the navvies building it.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< I did a walk near the Settle and Carlisle viaduct across a hill called Whernside in Yorkshire. A stream had been diverted over the railway line next to the footpath. >>

I know the place you mean, near Blea Moor signal box, a bit north of Ribblehead. We stayed a week at a farm near the viaduct a few years ago. Wouldn't fancy it in wild weather though ...

That's it. Imagine what it was like for the navvies building it.

There was a big hutted 'village' on the flattish ground beside the viaduct for years, and many navvies are buried in the little chapel a mile or so down the valley.

EV Demand Stalls - Brit_in_Germany

Well that happened quickly. Didn't know that the uptake of EVs in the States was so high.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11987439/Parking-...l

EV Demand Stalls - Ana William

Yes, charging anxiety is definitely one of the factors that is currently limiting the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Although the charging infrastructure is constantly expanding and improving, there are still concerns about the availability and speed of charging, especially during peak usage times. The issue of charging station occupancy is also becoming more prevalent, with some users occupying charging spots for longer than necessary and preventing others from accessing them.

However, it is worth noting that these challenges are not insurmountable, and the EV market is expected to continue growing over the next decade. Governments and private companies are investing heavily in charging infrastructure, and technological advancements are improving battery range and charging times. As the market for EVs matures, prices are likely to become more competitive, and consumer demand will drive further innovation and improvements.

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
Chat GPT’s working well, I see…
EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

However, it is worth noting that these challenges are not insurmountable,

That depends who you talk to, not enough is being invested in charging points, there is also the need for room to put these chargers and the available electricity to charge with, we have a long way to go and isn`t as easy a fix as most think

and now ICE has gotten a new lease of life I suspect a lot of people will stick with those, lighter in most cases and zero emissions whats not to like..

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

and now ICE has gotten a new lease of life I suspect a lot of people will stick with those, lighter in most cases and zero emissions whats not to like..

Could you elaborate a little please?

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

and now ICE has gotten a new lease of life I suspect a lot of people will stick with those, lighter in most cases and zero emissions whats not to like..

Could you elaborate a little please?

Someone already mentioned that the EU have agreed or looking at ice engines being built after 2035 as long as they are zero emissions, iirc BMW VW and others asked for this because the cost of EVs for them was too much in the time specified

the info is available on the net and if I can find it anyone can.

but the way tech is coming along, anyone could be right or wrong or anywhere in between, getting very interesting

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

and now ICE has gotten a new lease of life I suspect a lot of people will stick with those, lighter in most cases and zero emissions whats not to like..

Could you elaborate a little please?

Someone already mentioned that the EU have agreed or looking at ice engines being built after 2035 as long as they are zero emissions, iirc BMW VW and others asked for this because the cost of EVs for them was too much in the time specified

the info is available on the net and if I can find it anyone can.

but the way tech is coming along, anyone could be right or wrong or anywhere in between, getting very interesting

Oh, I see.

I'm not sure synthetic fuels are ever going to really take off - too much effort and energy to make. As you say, though, whatever's next is anyone's guess. I think it will probably be some form of electric, but I'm not convinced it will continue to involve massive batteries.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

I'm not sure synthetic fuels are ever going to really take off - too much effort and energy to make. As you say, though, whatever's next is anyone's guess. I think it will probably be some form of electric, but I'm not convinced it will continue to involve massive batteries.

it will be as fast to fill up as petrol or diesel and can be made in hours, some companies like Mercedes are using it in HGVs with the likelihood of using in there top cars, a few companies are looking into it as its cheaper to implement than making Bat evs (according to them) Ford are looking at it as well and Toyota are using it making it themselves

I`m not convinced about large batteries but not against them either only looking at the practical side of things, and as this zero emissions fuel which can be made in a short time will give everyone a choice which is imo a good thing

It may even give Hydrogen a chance to become included in our choice of fuel driven cars....

EV Demand Stalls - madf

Battery power to weight ratio is doubling roughly every 8 years.

By 2035 that is 12 years from now, a new car will likely have a range of 400-450 miles with a c 350kg battery.Currently it is c 200 miles

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

Battery power to weight ratio is doubling roughly every 8 years.

By 2035 that is 12 years from now, a new car will likely have a range of 400-450 miles with a c 350kg battery.Currently it is c 200 miles

And if that comes to pass the an EV will start suiting the majority of people.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

Battery power to weight ratio is doubling roughly every 8 years. By 2035 that is 12 years from now, a new car will likely have a range of 400-450 miles with a c 350kg battery.Currently it is c 200 miles

Please support your argument by quoting a 12-year projection which has come to pass (accurately) :-)

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

Well a better power to weight ratio would certainly improve the range but I think that a totally new battery design/concept will be needed. At the moment nobody seems concerned about the fluctuations in range has on the cost of electric to run these cars. Electric seems cheap until Gov and charger suppliers start adding on the taxes that are surely coming. It seems that only the well off in general are running EVs at present

EV Demand Stalls - pd

. It seems that only the well off in general are running EVs at present

That's presumably because they've only been out for 4 years in any sort of reasonable numbers so only available to people who buy new or nearly new cars?

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

It seems that only the well off in general are running EVs at present

Why would you think otherwise based on how long the majority of EVs have been avaialble and the current cost of them?

As for new battery designs/concepts - plenty of them at development stage at the moment - by the time the time the majority of cars are EVs there will be quite a lot of different ones I expect.

EV Demand Stalls - madf

Battery power to weight ratio is doubling roughly every 8 years. By 2035 that is 12 years from now, a new car will likely have a range of 400-450 miles with a c 350kg battery.Currently it is c 200 miles

Please support your argument by quoting a 12-year projection which has come to pass (accurately) :-)

Moore's Law.

Been right for decades.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< Moore's Law. Been right for decades. >>

I don't think half-ton chemical batteries are quite the same as computer microchips ?

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

"""Joe Biden making cars unaffordable with ‘draconian’ new electric car rules (msn.com)

Some views in the USA reflect some of those here in the UK.. Happening in too short a time scale to be practical is my take. In the news today China is opening NEW coal mines at an ever increasing rate and in the UK we are worried about storing CO2. I wonder would that be our CO2 or might it be some other countries who seem to have a lot more than us. What happens when we run out of storage space for our carbon emissions or the North Sea just happens to flood the dirty big hole left after the oil and gas has gone.

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

Per capita, the UK emits more.CO2 than China, and an awful lot of other countries. We are not the worst, but we're pretty high and the US is even higher.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

Per capita, the UK emits more.CO2 than China, and an awful lot of other countries. We are not the worst, but we're pretty high and the US is even higher.

I do wonder how anyone can make a statement like that when we have the cleanest air almost anywhere in the world, it has been said in California that even if all cars were electric now, it will hardly do anything to reduce the CO levels anywhere and most certainly will not reduce the amount of oil we use or need

have you actually measured this or is it what you believe because you read it, as another forum member says, bulls S, the only way I would believe it is if I measured it myself now as the amount of misinformation going around is enough to make a man cry

its getting rather daft now what is being said about BEVs considering even Elon Musk is building his own lithium refinery, which says how dangerous it is without the other compounds that are mined, though no one mentions the human side of this mining and the damage it will do to these miners and possibly us if the packs are damaged

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

Per capita, the UK emits more.CO2 than China, and an awful lot of other countries. We are not the worst, but we're pretty high and the US is even higher.

I do wonder how anyone can make a statement like that when we have the cleanest air almost anywhere in the world, it has been said in California that even if all cars were electric now, it will hardly do anything to reduce the CO levels anywhere and most certainly will not reduce the amount of oil we use or need

have you actually measured this or is it what you believe because you read it, as another forum member says, bulls S, the only way I would believe it is if I measured it myself now as the amount of misinformation going around is enough to make a man cry

its getting rather daft now what is being said about BEVs considering even Elon Musk is building his own lithium refinery, which says how dangerous it is without the other compounds that are mined, though no one mentions the human side of this mining and the damage it will do to these miners and possibly us if the packs are damaged

Carbon emissions and air quality are not the same thing.

Likewise, I think you're probably confusing lithium mining and cobalt mining.

In any case, my point was purely that we are as culpable for.carbon emissions as anyone. It's not necessarily about having factories belching out smoke, it's also about how much we consume and how that drives demand for those factories.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< ... we have the cleanest air almost anywhere in the world ... >>

Most of the time our air has come from the north Atlantic, where the junk has largely been rinsed out of it. It is a bit dirtier when the weather switches round.

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

Per capita, the UK emits more.CO2 than China, and an awful lot of other countries. We are not the worst, but we're pretty high and the US is even higher.

I do wonder how anyone can make a statement like that when we have the cleanest air almost anywhere in the world,.... the only way I would believe it is if I measured it myself now as the amount of misinformation going around is enough to make a man cry

What measurements did you get when you tested for the cleanest air?

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< ... is it what you believe because you read it, as another forum member says, bulls S, the only way I would believe it is if I measured it myself now ... >>

I don't believe it, I don't want to believe it, so it must be wrong. QED.

Now where have we heard that line before ? :-)

EV Demand Stalls - madf

New technology. in making key component (CPU,battery)

Large R &D

Failure to keep up is fatal. Big rewards if leader - see Tesla -on course to be world's largest car maker by 2030 if it keeps going . From zero in 2000.

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

Failure to keep up is fatal. Big rewards if leader - see Tesla -on course to be world's largest car maker by 2030 if it keeps going . From zero in 2000.

Most countries, including UK, enjoy a capitalist society, which only works on a basis of continuous Growth - the magic word politicians keep spitting out. We all know that any growth cannot continue indefinitely, but that problem will always be over the horizon for some later inhabitants to solve.

EV Demand Stalls - Crickleymal

Failure to keep up is fatal. Big rewards if leader - see Tesla -on course to be world's largest car maker by 2030 if it keeps going . From zero in 2000.

Most countries, including UK, enjoy a capitalist society, which only works on a basis of continuous Growth - the magic word politicians keep spitting out. We all know that any growth cannot continue indefinitely, but that problem will always be over the horizon for some later inhabitants to solve.

Yes, I've often wondered how that works. Simply sustaining output ought to be sufficient

EV Demand Stalls - madf

Failure to keep up is fatal. Big rewards if leader - see Tesla -on course to be world's largest car maker by 2030 if it keeps going . From zero in 2000.

Most countries, including UK, enjoy a capitalist society, which only works on a basis of continuous Growth - the magic word politicians keep spitting out. We all know that any growth cannot continue indefinitely, but that problem will always be over the horizon for some later inhabitants to solve.

Yes, I've often wondered how that works. Simply sustaining output ought to be sufficient

An occasional war helps.
EV Demand Stalls - Terry W

Growth is normally measured in financial terms. It is potentially a flawed measure.

Two neighbours. Each cut their own lawns. No impact of the economy.

Two neighbours cut each others lawns and charge each other £25. Suddenly there is an economic impact. As two honest people they pay tax on the money they have earned from their neighbour. The Treasury can give the NHS the money to employ more nurses.

The same principle is true of a wide range of services - decorating, servicing the car, eating in vs restaurant etc etc etc.

Adjusting economic growth and finances for inflation overall s fairly straightforward. But (say) a new piece of technology which makes production more efficient and thus reduces the cost and price of a product could appear as a recession.

The economy is fundamentally a con trick. If folk have confidence in the future they spend, invest, take risks etc. If confidence is lost - loans dry up, discretionary spending falls, investment is constrained etc.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

Battery power to weight ratio is doubling roughly every 8 years. By 2035 that is 12 years from now, a new car will likely have a range of 400-450 miles with a c 350kg battery.Currently it is c 200 miles

Please support your argument by quoting a 12-year projection which has come to pass (accurately) :-)

Moore's Law.

Been right for decades.

That only applied to computing power via the number of transistors etc in microchips, and was a doubling every 2 years. And that has significantly slowed (it was well above that) in the last 10 years, especially recently.

I'd be interested to know where your info on batteries came from, as I suspect that much of the chnges in the range of EVs has come from intiially changing from NiMh on early cars and hybrids to Li-Ion batteries now, and where they are housed as 'structural elements' of the sub frame rather than in a specific are taken out of the boot.

In my view, that makes them more vulnerable to runwaway battery fires and far high costs to access and change out packs / clusters of batteries, whether because of a component failure, end-of-life or car accident damage.

As far as I can tell, most longer-range EVs have only come about because many EVs are significanlty larger than ordinary ICE cars. I suspect that now that practically all EVs are now using Li-Ion batteries, the pace of improvements in range if you add in additional weight won't be very large, at least unless and until some replacement for li-Ion that is far more dense appears and becomes cost-effective.

EV Demand Stalls - madf

I'd be interested to know where your info on batteries came from, as I suspect that much of the chnges in the range of EVs has come from intiially changing from NiMh on early cars and hybrids to Li-Ion batteries now, and where they are housed as 'structural elements' of the sub frame rather than in a specific are taken out of the boot.

In my view, that makes them more vulnerable to runwaway battery fires and far high costs to access and change out packs / clusters of batteries, whether because of a component failure, end-of-life or car accident damage.

As far as I can tell, most longer-range EVs have only come about because many EVs are significanlty larger than ordinary ICE cars. I suspect that now that practically all EVs are now using Li-Ion batteries, the pace of improvements in range if you add in additional weight won't be very large, at least unless and until some replacement for li-Ion that is far more dense appears and becomes cost-effective.

You only need look at battery capacity changes on the Leaf, or I3 over an 8 year period. They doubled .

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

This new battery may help the charging situation if it works out but a lot more chargers needed everywhere

100 miles of electric range in five minutes? It's getting closer via a new battery (msn.com)

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

This new battery may help the charging situation if it works out but a lot more chargers needed everywhere

100 miles of electric range in five minutes? It's getting closer via a new battery (msn.com)

There are a lot of batteries on test at the moment and have been for a while, the only company that is succeeding in battery tech is Tesla who are miles ahead of everyone else including there circuits.

Tesla Motors are well in advance of others even though some say the design is similar to VW Audi, difference being they run without any rare earth magnets due to design of coils which gives them more power/speed and faster to get to high revs

only problem with Tesla is the new chassis build as the bolts that hold the body to the chassis (bolt rivet) can not be accessed from the outside so the car is written off

I didn`t see the part of video that explained how it was done, but not easy, but clever imo..

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

This new battery may help the charging situation if it works out but a lot more chargers needed everywhere

100 miles of electric range in five minutes? It's getting closer via a new battery (msn.com)

There are a lot of batteries on test at the moment and have been for a while, the only company that is succeeding in battery tech is Tesla who are miles ahead of everyone else including there circuits.

Tesla Motors are well in advance of others even though some say the design is similar to VW Audi, difference being they run without any rare earth magnets due to design of coils which gives them more power/speed and faster to get to high revs

only problem with Tesla is the new chassis build as the bolts that hold the body to the chassis (bolt rivet) can not be accessed from the outside so the car is written off

I didn`t see the part of video that explained how it was done, but not easy, but clever imo..

Don't forget that Tesla does not build their own batteries - they develop them with Panasoinc and CATL who build them as well as supplying a lot of the other car companies.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

Don't forget that Tesla does not build their own batteries

iirc Tesla do make there own 4680 batteries in the same factory they build the cars, Panasonic are not able to keep up demand, I think they are building a new extension to factory for 4680s

Tesla are trying to make all there parts in house as Apple are trying to do.

EV Demand Stalls - alan1302

Don't forget that Tesla does not build their own batteries

iirc Tesla do make there own 4680 batteries in the same factory they build the cars, Panasonic are not able to keep up demand, I think they are building a new extension to factory for 4680s

Tesla are trying to make all there parts in house as Apple are trying to do.

Apple don't build any of their own parts - they design a lot but outsource the building of them.

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

I'd be interested to know where your info on batteries came from, as I suspect that much of the chnges in the range of EVs has come from intiially changing from NiMh on early cars and hybrids to Li-Ion batteries now, and where they are housed as 'structural elements' of the sub frame rather than in a specific are taken out of the boot.

In my view, that makes them more vulnerable to runwaway battery fires and far high costs to access and change out packs / clusters of batteries, whether because of a component failure, end-of-life or car accident damage.

As far as I can tell, most longer-range EVs have only come about because many EVs are significanlty larger than ordinary ICE cars. I suspect that now that practically all EVs are now using Li-Ion batteries, the pace of improvements in range if you add in additional weight won't be very large, at least unless and until some replacement for li-Ion that is far more dense appears and becomes cost-effective.

You only need look at battery capacity changes on the Leaf, or I3 over an 8 year period. They doubled .

Perhaps, but that's not Moore's Law. Assigning a 1st gen doubling to every subsequent one is, in my view, bad science. If the same applied to aircraft and space craft (from 1st to 2nd gen), I'd be tootling around in a Star Trek type craft capacble fo travelling to Alpha Centuri in a matter of hours by now.

You also need to compare like with like - I'm not saying yopu're not here, but did the original's batteries fit in the same space as before, or has more room been made by fiting larger amounts elsewhere as I indicated? As I said, the change from NiMh to Li-Ion was very significant, but thus far the 'next' generation of materials used hasn't reached the stage to use even in prototype cars.

I strongly suspect that the pace of change will reduce unless and until any new materials are used instead of Lithium, with improvements in EV range mainly coming from using more of them and findind sneaky ways to fit them in the car's structure rather than purpose-made areas under the boot, plus weight savings elsewhere.

Unfortnately that will come with a big price tag, given how much else in the tech world relies on Lithium batteries these days, the finite supply of it and the difficulty to process / recycle it.

Still, I also believe that governments will continue to force car manufacturers to subsidise EV prices from jacking up ICE prices for 'environmnetal reasons' and other taxpayer subsidies, despite (as with many other 'green' technologies thesedays) so many claims from its proponents that it it is cost effective.

EV Demand Stalls - madf

"You also need to compare like with like - I'm not saying yopu're not here, but did the original's batteries fit in the same space as before, or has more room been made by fiting larger amounts elsewhere as I indicated? As I said, the change from NiMh to Li-Ion was very significant, but thus far the 'next' generation of materials used hasn't reached the stage to use even in prototype cars."

Same space: in the I3 on the floor bolted to the chassis frames

see table at www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH02scyrCaE&t=541s 7,58mins

EV Demand Stalls - pd

.

As far as I can tell, most longer-range EVs have only come about because many EVs are significanlty larger than ordinary ICE cars. I suspect that now that practically all EVs are now using Li-Ion batteries, the pace of improvements in range if you add in additional weight won't be very large, at least unless and until some replacement for li-Ion that is far more dense appears and becomes cost-effective.

Are they? A Model 3 is not much bigger than a petrol Focus. Same with most of the higher capacity Kias etc.

Most use Lithium-Nickel-Magnesium-Cobalt batteries but now some are using LFP (Lithium Ferrous Phosphate). The advantage of LFP is they don't need expensive cobalt but have slightly lower density. They are also OK to charge to 100% regularly and estimated to have a life between 3000 to 10,000 cycles (enough for between 500k and 1.5m miles).

The standard range Tesla Model 3 now uses LFP as does the lower capacity MG4.

There are also reported to be cars launched this year with Sodium Ion batteries for smaller cars. BYD are reportedly going to launch a small EV for about $12000 in China using one.

EV Demand Stalls - madf

BYD are incorporating batteries into chassis members thus reducing weight. And battery space requirements

(And ensuring anything but a minor bump will mean car write off)

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

All very reassuring having to write off EVs not very green and bound to push up insurance rates for everyone if the W/O is worth next to nothing. £40k W/O just like that and someone has the problem of disposing of the car, I doubt there will be much demand for S/H batteries with dubious mileage and X number of charges. One little old lady owner will not hold much sway!

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

There's certainly plenty of demand for Tesla batteries. I imagine the same holds true across all brands.

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

There's certainly plenty of demand for Tesla batteries. I imagine the same holds true across all brands.

Why? Is it to replace failing batteries?

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

There's certainly plenty of demand for Tesla batteries. I imagine the same holds true across all brands.

Why? Is it to replace failing batteries?

Not that I know of. As I'm sure you know, a lot of EV batteries are repurposed for domestic storage when they are no longer optimal for cars. People might be buying them for that. Alternatively, electric conversions of classic cars are increasingly popular and I'm sure there is quite a demand for batteries. As I understand it, a lot of Tesla batteries are made by Panasonic so will work with other kit..

EV Demand Stalls - madf

All very reassuring having to write off EVs not very green and bound to push up insurance rates for everyone if the W/O is worth next to nothing. £40k W/O just like that and someone has the problem of disposing of the car, I doubt there will be much demand for S/H batteries with dubious mileage and X number of charges. One little old lady owner will not hold much sway!

err..www.secondlife-evbatteries.com/

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

I am sure that the recycling of EV batteries in professional hands is all well and good but for the public to be messing with these things is a bit undesirable and probably will never happen on any scale

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

BYD are incorporating batteries into chassis members thus reducing weight. And battery space requirements

(And ensuring anything but a minor bump will mean car write off)

A New Approach to Car Batteries Is About to Transform EVs | WIRED UK

EV Demand Stalls - madf

Tesla’s 4680 battery is in difficulties and Tesla have called in Panasonic to assist in solving the issues.

Technically Tesla have a 5-8 year technology lead over everyone else.

(All readers of this thread now have at least double the knowledge of EVs that Boris had when he made his decisions on EVs)

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

BYD are incorporating batteries into chassis members thus reducing weight. And battery space requirements

(And ensuring anything but a minor bump will mean car write off)

A New Approach to Car Batteries Is About to Transform EVs | WIRED UK

I wonder if these firms think that EV owners will never crash their cars? Amazing also given how over the last 15 or so so years, cars have got more and more expensive (way outstripping inflation) to repair precisely because of all the tech etc used within the cars crumple zones.

Things wouldn't be anywhere near as bad had they properly minaturised the tech to keep it safely away from the crumple zones so that mehcanical repairs / replacements only need to be carried out after accidents, but...

And thes people put themselves forward as supposed 'experts'. Good God.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

BYD are incorporating batteries into chassis members thus reducing weight. And battery space requirements

(And ensuring anything but a minor bump will mean car write off)

A New Approach to Car Batteries Is About to Transform EVs | WIRED UK

I wonder if these firms think that EV owners will never crash their cars? Amazing also given how over the last 15 or so so years, cars have got more and more expensive (way outstripping inflation) to repair precisely because of all the tech etc used within the cars crumple zones.

d.

Have they? If we look at new prices:

In 2008 a Focus 1.8 Zetec cost £15330.

In 2023 a Focus 1.0 Ecoboost Titanium 125 costs £27080

Adjusted for inflation £15330 of 2008 money in today's money is £26,169.

So ever so slightly above.

I'm not convinced it's much difference on maintenance either. What was a service in 2008? What was an hours typical labour?

Edited by pd on 14/04/2023 at 14:28

EV Demand Stalls - Andrew-T

<< I wonder if these firms think that EV owners will never crash their cars? Amazing also given how over the last 15 or so so years, cars have got more and more expensive (way outstripping inflation) to repair precisely because of all the tech etc used within the cars crumple zones. >>

And the growing number of EVs, with their half-ton batteries, will start to outstrip the capability of other cars' crumple zones, which will presumably set off a round of falling NCAP ratings .... :-(

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

with their half-ton batteries, will start to outstrip the capability of other cars' crumple zones,

Judging by the look of the Tesla battery pack, which is the floor pan bolted to chassis in between steel sheets, I doubt another car hitting it would survive even at low speed

the giga pressed chassis in itself isn`t going to do any other car any good once its collided with that Tesla chassis, IMO it looks as solid as an HGV chassis so I can understand why the Tesla`s will be written off after side or rear ender, I doubt the colliding car will be any better

EV Demand Stalls - pd

If any car has a fairly major bang it seems to get written off these days.

If you bend the floorpan or the shell beyond something which minor rejigging can cope with insurance companies do not want to have either the liability or the sheer amount of time it can take to rebuild.

These cars once written off do not have zero value. A lot get shipped off abroad and stripped for parts, some get shipped off abroad and get rebuilt on the cheap (some of these also re-appear in the UK on a new number plate but that is another story).

Have a look at copart - it is amazing how much what looks like it should go straight in the crusher actually fetches.

EV Demand Stalls - Bolt

If any car has a fairly major bang it seems to get written off these days.

If you bend the floorpan or the shell beyond something which minor rejigging can cope with insurance companies do not want to have either the liability or the sheer amount of time it can take to rebuild.

These cars once written off do not have zero value. A lot get shipped off abroad and stripped for parts, some get shipped off abroad and get rebuilt on the cheap (some of these also re-appear in the UK on a new number plate but that is another story).

Have a look at copart - it is amazing how much what looks like it should go straight in the crusher actually fetches.

Tesla Model Y Texas-Built Giga Castings Removed! - YouTube

video of giga chassis model Y, similar video there of the battery pack

if you have already seen it ignore

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
Surely the whole point of vehicle safety isn’t to preserve the car but the squidgy bits inside it?
And if a car deforms in a planned, predictable manner, channeling impact energy around, rather than through the occupants then they have a much greater chance of walking away from an accident that may have killed or injured in years gone by?
Survivability in accidents has increased multiple fold because the cars do deform, and they may be more easily written off, but we’re stepping out of accidents that wouldn’t have been survivable a couple of decades back because cars are sacrificial.
EV Demand Stalls - alan1302
Surely the whole point of vehicle safety isn’t to preserve the car but the squidgy bits inside it? And if a car deforms in a planned, predictable manner, channeling impact energy around, rather than through the occupants then they have a much greater chance of walking away from an accident that may have killed or injured in years gone by? Survivability in accidents has increased multiple fold because the cars do deform, and they may be more easily written off, but we’re stepping out of accidents that wouldn’t have been survivable a couple of decades back because cars are sacrificial.

I'd rather write off the car than myself or the passenegers. Modern cars do look a mess when they crash but I'd rather have than than ones that are less safe.

EV Demand Stalls - madf

Some useful stats on used EV prices, trends etc..

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/when-bu.../

(paywalled)

Chart suggest EV used prices will bottom in 2025

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

Some useful stats on used EV prices, trends etc..

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/when-bu.../

(paywalled)

Chart suggest EV used prices will bottom in 2025

All those people buying EVs thinking they are the equivalent of a Porsche Boxter will be in for a nasty surprise when they come to sell or PX them in a few years, even more so if the price of the new cars does fall due to 'improvements in the tech' and availability of the expensive bits like the batteries and computer chips, though I doubt if the forecsats of 'cheap' new EVs are realistic, at least not within the next 15 years at least.

Not helped by the entire second hand market currently being a third above the historical norm.

What the report also appears to not take into account is that the big increase in EV sales over the last few years has mainly be driven (pardon the pun) by shortages of parts and labour for ICE cars, whereas EVs are considered 'up-market' and thus the more well-off can afford higher prices and also for the virtue-signalling element.

Who's going to buy their cars costing £40k new when they want a replacement? No way some bloke normally buying a Focus for £11k will want to stump up £25k+ for something of similar load / passenger capacity that he can't charge at home and has a range well under half of the Focus, never mind the much higher insurance.

IMHO, if EVs go that 'distributed battery' route, then the insurance cost for EVs will go through the roof due to the possible right-off possibilites of relatively minor accidents, putting them out of reach for all bar the very well off, meaning they'll be scrap far sooner than an ICE car.

So much of this hasn't been thought through by those involved in all this - no surprise to me, given what happened before with diesels and more recently with the veritable exlosion of 'safety' gizmos that give a significantly diminished return on that front vs the cost to the consumer.

EV Demand Stalls - martin.mc

Way back in the 1970s, Volvo made a car, the 240 series, that was safe for occupants but wasn't written off in a minor traffic bump.

EV Demand Stalls - Ethan Edwards

Indeed and it would lucky to see 15mpg in one. Heavy is bad.

EV Demand Stalls - pd

Frankly I'd prefer to have a bump in a 2023 Aygo rather than a 1970s 240.

They were "safe" for the time but no more than that.

Edited by pd on 18/04/2023 at 10:41

EV Demand Stalls - focussed

Frankly I'd prefer to have a bump in a 2023 Aygo rather than a 1970s 240.

They were "safe" for the time but no more than that.

Indeed and it would lucky to see 15mpg in one. Heavy is bad. You are both so wrong - the Aygo is a tiny city car shoe box about as protective as a paper bag in a serious collision. The old 240 series was a pioneer in keeping the driver and passengers alive by having an extremely strong passenger cell and weaker front and rear crumple zones to absorb the crash energy, developed from data gathered from Volvo's crash investigation unit. www.caranddriver.com/news/a26892890/volvo-project-.../ And 15 mpg is nonsense, I drove 240's for years as firm's cars and while not particularly economical the mpg never sank below 22 even towing and driving like firm's drivers do. Driven reasonably the later injection models were achieving 25 - 30 mpg if driven sensibly,

Edited by focussed on 18/04/2023 at 15:22

EV Demand Stalls - sammy1

All the airbags and safety measures in small cars are to be applauded but in most cases small cars come off a lot worse in collisions with larger ones. The extra weight and inertia of EVs is something to be concerned about

EV Demand Stalls - Engineer Andy

All the airbags and safety measures in small cars are to be applauded but in most cases small cars come off a lot worse in collisions with larger ones. The extra weight and inertia of EVs is something to be concerned about

Most of the extra weight currently is at low level - the batteries. I'd be far more concerned about thermal runaway fires of said batteries as a result of a serious accident.

If you're concerned about the extra weight of large vehicles in accidents, remember how many HGVs are on the roads these days.

There have been many cases of new, 'very safe' cars - and their occupants that have been crushed into near oblivion by such vehicles in serious multivehicle motorway accidents. Your chances might be higher in a bigger car than a small one, but probably not by that much in those circumstances.

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

All the airbags and safety measures in small cars are to be applauded but in most cases small cars come off a lot worse in collisions with larger ones. The extra weight and inertia of EVs is something to be concerned about

A Tesla Model 3 weighs about the same as a Jaguar XF. Is anyone particularly concerned about old boys driving their barges to the golf club?

EV Demand Stalls - Adampr

You are both so wrong - the Aygo is a tiny city car shoe box about as protective as a paper bag in a serious collision. The old 240 series was a pioneer in keeping the driver and passengers alive by having an extremely strong passenger cell and weaker front and rear crumple zones to absorb the crash energy, developed from data gathered from Volvo's crash investigation unit. www.caranddriver.com/news/a26892890/volvo-project-.../ And 15 mpg is nonsense, I drove 240's for years as firm's cars and while not particularly economical the mpg never sank below 22 even towing and driving like firm's drivers do. Driven reasonably the later injection models were achieving 25 - 30 mpg if driven sensibly,

Nope. 240s didn't even have airbags. There was a Fifth Gear a few years ago where they drove a Volvo 960 into a Renault Modus. The Modus (and, more importantly, the dummies inside) came off a lot better.

EV Demand Stalls - focussed
"240s didn't even have airbags. There was a Fifth Gear a few years ago where they drove a Volvo 960 into a Renault Modus. The Modus (and, more importantly, the dummies inside) came off a lot better"

Comparing a 200 series with a 960 series is irrelevant.
EV Demand Stalls - Adampr
"240s didn't even have airbags. There was a Fifth Gear a few years ago where they drove a Volvo 960 into a Renault Modus. The Modus (and, more importantly, the dummies inside) came off a lot better" Comparing a 200 series with a 960 series is irrelevant.

Only because the 960 was more advanced!

EV Demand Stalls - mcb100
I’m in the ‘I’d rather have an accident in a modern small car than a 1970’s large one’ camp.
Design has progressed so much in that 50 years.
In addition, with the widespread adoption of all manner of stability controls and autonomous emergency braking, we’re much less likely to be having an accident in the first place.

www.euroncap.com/en/results/toyota/aygo+x/46259

Edited by mcb100 on 18/04/2023 at 20:57

EV Demand Stalls - madf
I’m in the ‘I’d rather have an accident in a modern small car than a 1970’s large one’ camp. Design has progressed so much in that 50 years. In addition, with the widespread adoption of all manner of stability controls and autonomous emergency braking, we’re much less likely to be having an accident in the first place. www.euroncap.com/en/results/toyota/aygo+x/46259

Most small cars in the 1970s did not have power steering. Try driving a modern small car with wider wheels and better lock without power steering.

I started driving in the 1960s.. with cars made in he 1930s. Modern cars of the current era beat ALL prior cars for ease of driving , fuel economy and safety.

A Volvo 240 was like driving a tank without the armour.