It is inevitable that the government will seek to replace duty lost on fuel sales as EV is adopted. I would expect any changes to be fully implemented by the 2030 transition date - and possibly a few years before then for new vehicles.
RFL may be increased but I suspect that charging on the basis of usage/mileage would be perceived as "fairest".
If a tax goes on to road pricing it may be easier to tax remaining ICE and EV on a similar basis. Fuel duties paid on ICE may remain as an incentive to switch.
The cost of electric currently varies significantly depending on how it is sourced
- PVs on the roof being cheapest,
- domestic grid variable depending on contract (night time rates etc)
- charging networks most expensive as operators need to cover overheads and profit
Differentiating domestic power use would be difficult to implement fairly due to PV generation for some and separating out EV charging from normal domestic use.
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