VW forums have lots of discussion about inconsistent belt changes. Crazily the recommended intervals vary significantly across markets for identical engines.
I think it is because some recommenders err on the cautious side and have a vested interest in the work involved. An expensive garage with a VW sign above the door and on the notepaper doesn't necessarily imbue either the proprietor or the employees with either the expertise or the authority of VW's Wolfsburg engineers.
It's basically all about the percentage risk of failure at a certain mileage. Even a 0.5% failure rate before, say, 100,000 miles would negate a reputation for reliability, especially in a mass produced engine powering hundreds of thousands of cars. Sadly, this means that if, say, 1% of probably unnecessary changes at a 'recommended' 50,000 miles are mucked up by careless mechanics, there will be more unhappy owners than if they had left well alone. Any bearing, whether wheel, water pump, or tension pulley, can unluckily fail at 40,000 miles or less when other identical bearings might last five times longer.
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