In the early 1900's, when the motor car was evolving from being a plaything for the rich into a personal transport for the masses, many people must have asked the question: "But where will all the petroleum spirit needed to propel these tens of thousands of motor cars come from?".
By 2030 most of our electricity will come from renewable sources for most of the time. Last year we got about one third of our electricity from renewables (wind, solar) and that's grown from something like 6% in 2010 and virtually zero in 2000.
It is argued that moving to electric cars won't increase energy demand because of the savings from not having to refine oil. A lot of electricity and natural gas is used in the refining process.
They say you get 3 times as much energy from petrol as it takes to refine it - but then a petrol engine is only about 25 - 30 % thermal efficiency. An electric car is over 90% thermal efficiency and battery charging also wastes some energy as heat but much less overall than a petrol or diesel car.
A battery recycling industry is developing in readiness for when larger numbers of electric cars come to the end of their lives. Also a lot of work is going into employing safer and more easily obtainable materials within batteries.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 17/11/2020 at 13:04
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There is no credible plan for how we are going to generate the necessary electricity, let alone all other infrastructure required. Making announcements is easy, as we have seen the government do frequently, but without substance behind them we won't get there.
It's a similar situation with domestic heating and the proposed ban on new houses having gas boilers. Lots of electricity needed, which could well have to be provided by gas as the inly reliable system that can be built quickly enough.
Electrolysed Hydrogen from Wind Farms distributed via the natural gas network. Oh then the governmnt will cease all sales of EVs as they are too polluting.
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Why use electricity to produce hydrogen that needs to be transported, stored and then turned back into electricity in a fuel-cell in the car when electricity can be supplied straight to the car's battery via the grid?
While it's possible to burn hydrogen in a spark-ignition engines, it's less efficient than electric, whether battery or fuel-cell or a combination of the two.
I think the future of motoring is electric but I'm not so sure about the current fad for converting classic cars to electrics. Maybe they could be the perfect niche for hydrogen combustion engines.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 17/11/2020 at 13:16
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Why use electricity to produce hydrogen that needs to be transported, stored and then turned back into electricity in a fuel-cell in the car when electricity can be supplied straight to the car's battery via the grid?
For the simple reason that you can store it. At present, wind farmers are paid not to produce electricity when there is too much of it about, e.g. north sea gales during summer nights. This is absurd, and hopefully temporary. It makes sense to store it in hydrogen rather than piles of batteries weighing ten times as much for the same amount of usable energy, and costing far more in polluting manufacture than a hydrogen tank, which should last indefinitely.
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Why use electricity to produce hydrogen that needs to be transported, stored and then turned back into electricity in a fuel-cell in the car when electricity can be supplied straight to the car's battery via the grid?
For the simple reason that you can store it. At present, wind farmers are paid not to produce electricity when there is too much of it about, e.g. north sea gales during summer nights. This is absurd, and hopefully temporary. It makes sense to store it in hydrogen rather than piles of batteries weighing ten times as much for the same amount of usable energy, and costing far more in polluting manufacture than a hydrogen tank, which should last indefinitely.
The distibution network largely exists when we migrate from "natural" gas to hydrogen. Perhaps they can also add some carnbon monoxide as per town gas then I could put my head in an oven rather than buy an electric car
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Why use electricity to produce hydrogen that needs to be transported, stored and then turned back into electricity in a fuel-cell in the car when electricity can be supplied straight to the car's battery via the grid?
For the simple reason that you can store it. At present, wind farmers are paid not to produce electricity when there is too much of it about, e.g. north sea gales during summer nights. This is absurd, and hopefully temporary. It makes sense to store it in hydrogen rather than piles of batteries weighing ten times as much for the same amount of usable energy, and costing far more in polluting manufacture than a hydrogen tank, which should last indefinitely.
The distibution network largely exists when we migrate from "natural" gas to hydrogen. Perhaps they can also add some carnbon monoxide as per town gas then I could put my head in an oven rather than buy an electric car
You can store electricity, in batteries. That's why grid-scale battery storage is being built all around the world including here in UK.
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Why use electricity to produce hydrogen that needs to be transported, stored and then turned back into electricity in a fuel-cell in the car when electricity can be supplied straight to the car's battery via the grid?
While it's possible to burn hydrogen in a spark-ignition engines, it's less efficient than electric, whether battery or fuel-cell or a combination of the two.
I think the future of motoring is electric but I'm not so sure about the current fad for converting classic cars to electrics. Maybe they could be the perfect niche for hydrogen combustion engines.
Converting classic cars to electric is sacrilige. They are no longer classic cars. Our history and heritage is being thrown away by fools
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Do you know there is no credible plan, or is that what you want to believe?
If you are told of a credible plan would you change your mind?
By 2030 the increase in offshore wind provision will more than meet the requirements for charging electric vehicles - that's not my opinion, that's the National Grid credible plan.
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Do you know there is no credible plan, or is that what you want to believe?
If you are told of a credible plan would you change your mind?
By 2030 the increase in offshore wind provision will more than meet the requirements for charging electric vehicles - that's not my opinion, that's the National Grid credible plan.
I suspect moving the deadline back to 2030 is to give a time that looks close enough to actually drive change and also to give some wiggle room before 2040 if, by 2027/8 that looks difficult.
Also, as I never tire of saying, 15 years ago if you bought an electric car it would probably be a GWhiz even 10 years ago there wasn't that much choice. Look at it now?
Same with charging infrastructure.
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I suspect moving the deadline back to 2030 is to give a time that looks close enough to actually drive change and also to give some wiggle room before 2040 if, by 2027/8 that looks difficult.
There might be no need for a deadline. Steam cars were not outlawed, they just gradually disappeared during a decade or two as the big firms stopped making them and the little ones went bust.
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A bit of guesswork over the adequacy of electrical infrastructure and generating capacity.
The probability is that we have ~ 25 years to make the transition, not 10 years to 2030. It is a pretty much a non-problem.
Assuming the average life of an ICE is 15 years, 33% of cars on the road in 2030 will be 10-15 year old ICE. Additionally the cars sold 2021 - 2030 will be partially ICE (say 50%) as EV sales increase from approx 15% to 90%+ of total car sales.
By 2030 ~33% of cars on the road will be EV
The issue of gas boilers has also been noted. I doubt that mandatory gas boiler change will be the outcome - more likely the ban will impact new and replacement installations.
The legislation has yet to be put in place, and gas boilers have an operating life of 15-30 years.
5-15% of gas installations will be replaced by electric by 2030.
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The current (pardon the pun) level of charging infrastructure is nothing compared to that needed to support a mjority of road users, bearing in mins that the precentage of cars on the road that are EVs is around the 0.5% mark as of today (I checked and it was roughly 140k out of 40M) . When they have similar levels to that of ICE filling stations that can charge a car in 5 minutes, maybe.
Besides, who's going to pay for all the new chargers and, once it gets to a significant level, digging up tens of thousands of miles of road, car parks, etc etc to lay all the new cables?
Whilst the grid may (not certain by any means, given the electricity consumed by fuel refineries are in specific areas only [mainly coastal]) be able to cope, local upgrades will almost certainly be needed.
But as others have said, the huge extra amount of raw materials needed for the batteries is not just as easy to find as regards ramping up existing supplies or finding new sources - in well under 10 years, given they all have to be found, surveyed to confirm quantity and quality of reserves, mines dug, product refined, then made into components and then fitted to the vehicles and sold.
And that's assuming we'll have the necessary electricity generation capacity when it's needed to fullfill the charging systems, noting that gas is rapidly running out and is neede far more to heat homes and buildings generally than to generate electricity for car batteries.
Solar panels are not viable for the amount of power this would need locally at charging points (huge arrays would be needed plus more underground cabling) or taking out yet more arable land needed for us to be as self-sufficient food wise as possible and for leisure use.
And most of us don't want a huge wind turbine within earshot or sight near our homes (never mind they are suited to most of the UK - mainly remote and northern areas).
I have no issue with going EV - I just think that the current crisis and lots of powerful vested interests are pushing them towards this, as well as those who want to virtue signal their supposed 'green' credentials.
Besides - we've just spent how many hundred £Bns on essentially treading water for 8 months and counting. Presumably that's more debt we're going to have to pay to certain already vastly wealthy billionairres and their companies/banks/China who are the very same people wanting this all to happen in return for more control over our lives, governments and economies.
Coincidence? I think not.
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Do you know there is no credible plan, or is that what you want to believe?
If you are told of a credible plan would you change your mind?
By 2030 the increase in offshore wind provision will more than meet the requirements for charging electric vehicles - that's not my opinion, that's the National Grid credible plan.
But only when the wind blows - is that a credible plan?
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But only when the wind blows - is that a credible plan?
Not on its own, maybe, but grid scale battery storage completes the jigsaw. Such battery units are already in operation - here's one:
www.edie.net/news/8/UK-s-largest-battery-storage-f.../
We all know the wind doesn't blow all the time but with the number of onshore and offshore wind farms in existence around our island, on most days the wind is blowing somewhere.
At the moment wind and solar exist in symbiosis with combined cycle gas-fired power stations, which can be started up or run down at short notice, unlike nuclear or coal-fired.
So the more renewable capacity we have, the less we need to use the gas-fired power stations and eventually they will just become stand-by,needed a few times a year.
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You cannot run a country like the UK on renewables alone.
"So it is against this backdrop of extreme emotional attachment to 'renewable energy' and extreme ignorance of the principles underlying power generation, and in the face of extreme opposition to any contradiction of its precepts, that we have to - perhaps vainly - attempt to lead those who are prepared to be led, down a path of a somewhat technical nature, in order to understand why, despite its seeming usefulness, it is in the end a deeply disappointing, wasteful and ultimately fruitless exercise.
And why simply spending more money on it will never achieve the hoped for results"
Leo Smith MA electrical sciences
www.templar.co.uk/downloads/Renewable%20Energy%20L...f
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g gas boilers. Lots of electricity needed, which could well have to be provided by gas as the inly reliable system that can be built quickly enough.
I'd be interested to see some numbers for this.
I'm building a house that will have an air source heat pump. I should need to put in about 1/4 of the kWh of electricity than I would with gas were I to install a gas boiler instead. Of course this won't save me any money because electricity is about 4 x the price of gas. However I am hopeful that the house won't require a massive amount of heating of any kind. Current regulations mean even the minimum insulation levels of a new house are much better than most existing housing stock, and ours will exceed the requirements by a decent margin. I was spending £1500 a year heating the old bungalow with gas and I'll be disappointed if I can't halve that cost and claim the enable heat incentive for 7 years as well.
Whether it's sensible to do this is debatable of course, I could just save £5000 now by fitting gas but I'm hoping that a 'future' house will have appeal to buyers when I come to sell it.
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Now official policy according to the Telegraph..,
"The sale of new petrol and diesel cars will be banned within a decade, and hybrid cars by 2035, as part of the Government's £12bn green industrial strategy. "
Notice the hybrid bit. Does that cover mild hybrid and micro hybrid as well? In which case pretty much 99% of new cars on sale are at least micro hybrid now (i.e. stop/start plus energy recovery)
www.yuasa.co.uk/info/technical/micro-hybrid-hybrid.../
Edit: I just read that new Skoda Octavia E-tec 1.5 (which is a mild hybrid) has supposedly been homologated as just a hybrid. Presumably all mild hybrids in the VAG stable will be the same.
tekdeeps.com/skoda-octavia-the-1-5-mild-hybrid-150.../
This surely is the loophole that car manufacturers will use to carry on till 2035.
Edited by brum on 18/11/2020 at 00:18
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Perhaps we are thinking about this in the wrong way.
Instead of saying how are we going to provide enough electricity, batteries, infrastructure to support millions of cars maybe we just need fewer cars ?
Maybe the age of mass personal transport should end with the internal combustion engine, it would certainly be better for the planet and future generations ?
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You are very fortunate in being able to build a house that can be equipped with a heat pump. I understand they can work well in new homes because the design can take account of the low maximum water temperature they produce. This is done partly by much better insulation (as you are providing) and typically underfloor heating. You have managed in this most optimal design to get your electricity heating cost to be competitive with gas, but even so the energy coming into your house will now be electricity and not gas.
Most of us live in older houses, that typically have radiator heating designed for a water temperature of around 60 degrees coming from a gas or oil boiler. They don't work well with 40 degree water fro the heat pump. I have yet to see a solution to this issue. Retrofitting underfloor heating is either not practical or very costly, and they alternative would be massively increasing the quantity or effective area of the radiators.
Don't get me wrong, I am all in favour of going electric if we can produce it in a green way. Today we not only include solar and wind as "green" but also biomass. The ex-coal fired Drax B power station now burns wood pellets imported from Canada. It's electricity id included in the percentage of environmentally friendly electricity we produce. Is this right? Or is it misleading the public about how good we are getting?
I'm sorry to digress away from motoring a little. Others have made very good points in this and other threads. I suspect that hydrogen is a much better long term power source for road transport than electricity.
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How would the hydrogen be used to drive the cars?
Hydrogen is consumed in a fuel cell that produces electricity to drive the car. So a hydrogen powered car is essentially an electric car with exhaust pipe that emits water vapour.
There have been experimental cars that burn hydrogen in an adapted petrol engine but that's much less efficient. As I say, a possible niche market for hydrogen would be adapting existing cars to run on it - particularly classic cars.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 18/11/2020 at 09:36
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I'm sorry to digress away from motoring a little. Others have made very good points in this and other threads. I suspect that hydrogen is a much better long term power source for road transport than electricity.
I think it is as well - but do think it is too far off to be the solution at the moment as electric cars are a lot further ahead with the amount to research and development on them especially into larger capacity batteries.
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Idiotic thinktank says 2030 is too late and is calling foe a ban of new ICE cars by 2026!! As little as 6 years away!!!! Hope Princess Nut Nut is not involved.
www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/uk-ban...s
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Idiotic thinktank says 2030 is too late and is calling foe a ban of new ICE cars by 2026!! As little as 6 years away!!!! Hope Princess Nut Nut is not involved.
www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/uk-ban...s
Who is Princess Nut Nut? Do prefer it when people use peoples real names.
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Princess Nut Nut is none other that Boris's floozy.
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Idiotic thinktank says 2030 is too late and is calling foe a ban of new ICE cars by 2026!! As little as 6 years away!!!! Hope Princess Nut Nut is not involved.
www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/uk-ban...s
It's a simple prediction that, unless we abandon ICE before 2030, we won't met targets for CO2 reduction. The science may or may not be reliable and 2026 may not be achievable but I'm not sure either of those reasons make the think tank "idiotic".
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