Increasing finacial penalties for using the phone won't deter some people, perhaps caught once a warning, twice and it's a ban. I see many drivers on the phone whilst driving and there aren't any police around to catch them.

And there's another conundrum. Some days it seems every white van man I see is on the phone. There should be widespread carnage with wrecked vans everywhere. But there aren't.

It doesn’t work like that. Using a phone call does not automatically lead to a crash. But it does make you less attentive and more likely to have a crash. It’s the same with alcohol. You can drive while over the limit and not crash. But a crash becomes more likely.

I didn't mean it literally Leif - clearly if the odds of a crash on a single journey increase from 1/10000 to 1/5000 they aren't all going to crash. But where are the data? I keep seeing "research" in which people are made to phone or text while simulating driving and their performance is measured. If these were in any way representative of real life, it is not credible to me that we would not have seen a more material rise in the death and injury statistics, regardless of improvements in vehicle safety.

If the analysis was done properly on real events we might learn a lot about distraction and how drivers could be educated or motivated to perform better all round.

Several times I have posted the below link (related to observation rather than phone use) and suggested that its contents should be taught. They aren't, and people continue to believe that they can scan a junction by panning like a movie camera and see everything, and are then astonished when they pull out in front of a motorcycle.

gedandclaire.com/downloads/a-fighter-pilots-guide-...f

Similarly and despite many half-hearted campaigns, tailgating is endemic, and most of it is ignorance rather than aggression.

You make a valid point though about how probability works, which explains why so many people do it all the time - most of the time they get away with it.

I do actually believe that looking at a phone or even having a hands-free conversation creates distraction, but most of us are actually pretty good at managing that most of the time, it's a fact of life and existed long before phones and satnavs. That is why telling people that they are likely to cause an accident doesn't work - it contradicts their everyday experience.

I think the authorities probably realise this and that is why the focus has changed to deterrence by heavy penalties. But education and proper understanding would go a long way.

Strike all that. I've just remembered that most people are stupid, or aren't interested in being better drivers:)