My instinct, if such it can be called, is that Maker of Maps is right, it is a bubble, and the price will eventually be $75 or even a touch less. Optimism is one of my many faults.
Big Oil has the world by the goolies, yes, but Big Oil only goes on getting bigger when the world is firing on most cylinders. If the price of oil contributes to the recession, and it does, the robber barons, to dignify the carphounds more than somewhat, will have to back off a bit in their own best interests. Not much point in having a yacht if it's going to be seized as a hospital ship for WWIV.
Lap of the gods though really innit?
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>>Not much point in having a yacht if it's going to be seized as a hospital ship for WWIV>>
I laid up my yacht after the speedboat boys kept calling me a mimser. Still, I'll have the last laugh when the fuel runs out and I unfurl my sails!
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$125
We wont see it below $100 again - too much demand from Asia
MPZ
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updated summary of the responses so far, in price order:
$10 - welshlad
$65 - sir_hiss
$75 - Lud
$110 - Edv
$125 - Round the Bend
$125 - zarqon
$135 - gpmartin
$140 - pendulum
$148 - Pica
$158 - oldnotbold
$169 - billy25
$170 - L'escargot
$175 - peanut
$176 - fox83
$180 - gordonbennet
$185 - moonshine
$187 - TheOilBurner
$189 - mikeyb
$190 - JH
$195 - The Melting Snowman
$200 - stunorthants26
$210 - Orson
$260 - scribe
$300 - skorpio
$500 - jbf
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Not long now until the 1st December. With the current price at $64 it looks like sir_hiss, Lud and Edv are the front runners.
It's a good reminder of just how bad we are at predicting the future (with the exception of the three names mentioned above)
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its a shame the price at the pumps doesnt reflect the price of crude even allowing for the "trickle down" time delay myth!
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I wil post my guess on the 30th November at 23:59
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"its a shame the price at the pumps doesnt reflect the price of crude even allowing for the "trickle down" time delay myth! "
Over the same period the £ has fallen a good 20% against the $, so it's more like $80 a barrel in terms of our £s.
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ASDA have dropped unleaded to 92.9p now at all stations but no change with diesel at 106.9p
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And the winner is . . .
RF! (whose Sunday evening post was mysteriously deleted)
In 2nd place, sir_hiss
In 3rd place, Lud
In 4th place, welshlad (I beginning to wonder if he would pull off an amazing last minute win.)
Booby prize . . . we'll say nothing.
Funny thing, I really expected that madf, the backroom's leading economic forecaster, would have been up there on the podium. I presume oil prices just aren't his thing. (They're definitely not mine!)
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Egg firmly in face for the harbingers of doom (myself included!), tellingly even the closer guesses were still some way off. What have we got today? About $46-47 for WTI and Brent?
Anybody like to kick off their guess for another 3 months? :)
I suspect we'll all have other things on our minds!
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If I am remembering rightly I declined to name a price, but did say that I thought there would be a trend for some countries to negotiate direct deals with supplier countries to secure oil and other commodities, and insulate both parties from movements up and down.
Since then I notice China has purchased half of Madagascar in order to secure agricultural and oil-substitute products.
(In a similar way we have recently purchased Iceland in order to secure supplies of dodgy banks)
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>> (In a similar way we have recently purchased Iceland in order to secure supplies of dodgy banks)
Oh, come on! Is that all? Surely we must be entitled to their cod stocks as well?
:-)
Edited by tyro on 03/12/2008 at 11:49
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"Funny thing, I really expected that madf, the backroom's leading economic forecaster, would have been up there on the podium. I presume oil prices just aren't his thing. (They're definitely not mine!) "
Leading economic forecaster? Joke..
Seriously when I see competitions like this, it's like when Taxi drivers start giving you share tips (See the Tech Bubble 1999-2000). I.e. the bubble is about to burst.
Well it has burst.
I expect we'll see $40 certainly and if the recession is as long and deep as it looks possibly $30 or $20..
I sold all my oil shares month ago.. and apart from shorting the pound done very little else.
I am saving my cash - as I have said before - to buy a 4 year old immaculate Bentley Continental from a footballer whose Premier League club has gone bust.
As about 3 or 4 may, i may be spolied for choice.
price?
Wll i have earmarked £25k but I expect reality might be less. and with $20 I'll be able to afford 18mpg...
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Make sure the AA bring a sniffer dog when they give that footballer's overpriced VW Phaeton the once over for you.
;-)
Edited by Alanovich on 03/12/2008 at 11:52
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you may not believe this, but the price of oil being too low is a BAD thing. Below $50 a barrel is BAD
Why?
No one is going to invest in infrastructure to find, extract and distribute oil and oil products now. That means low output in the future and that means massive price hike some time when economies try and pick up, knocking them back down again.
Petro dollars. An awfull lot of stuff is bough in petrodollars. If the producers have no PD's they aint buying, As they were massive buyers on the world market then there are no global sales. No global sales no economy picks up. Also future petrodollar rates are used to finance global expansion later. If the future petrodollar rate is low, no investment, no global growth
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and apart from shorting the pound done very little else.
I realise this is nought to do with motoring, and is being nosy (hence feel free to decline to answer) - but what exactly does that mean, and when did you do it?
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"realise this is nought to do with motoring, and is being nosy (hence feel free to decline to answer) - but what exactly does that mean, and when did you do it? "
Read
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market
I actually trade the UKpound vs US Dollar via covered warrants.
www.hemscott.com/companies/covered-warrants/info.do
I actually used SW49
uk.warrants.com/services/quotes/search.php?family=...D
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Damn, cant believe I forgot to update this post with the results.
Interesting that there are a few mentions of possible recession in the posts, but it goes to show that most of the time forecasts are nothing more than a guess. Six months is a long time and it's amazing how much things can change in that time.
Maybe the next comp should be something like "guess the number of car dealers to go bust" or "when will interest rates be 0%" or "what will the £ be worth in 6months" :)
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Or even, will there be a £ in 6 months?
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If we end up at 1-1, which it looks like we might, they'd be mad to not seriously look at it.
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Thanks, madf.
It's all a bit beyond me - but if I've got this correct, to 'short' the pound is to purchase a covered warrant, which is a sort of foreign exchange option (rather than a 'future' or a 'forward contract') and if one believes that the dollar will rise against the pound, one purchases a 'call' warrant?
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Well ? - just dragged this out of the box for an airing !
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Price just keeps falling.
OPEC have a history of making cuts which are more honoured in the breach.
As I expect a depression, OPEC (and Russia) MAY get their act together. IF they do, the depression will get worse as prices rise.
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Price just keeps falling.
I'm tracking the price of heating oil and that has been roughly stable for the last five weeks.
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Decided it has bottomed today. So gone long with a leveraged ETF (LOIL).
Like all good trades , in profit within 10 minutes *as opposed to bad ones which always lose.
I will cut it mercilessly if it's a blip.
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Interesting discussion on the radio yesterday about American foreign policy in respect of Iran. Unlikely to go for a strike now, mainly due to the fact that the low oil price is causing more internal problems that a military strike could. Well debated arguments from both sides of the Atlantic.
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The words 'American foreign policy' send a shiver down my spine. I suppose a stopped watch is right twice a day though.
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